Random Shots – Catching Up

After a week with the family in a cottage in Sweden Alpha Sources is ready to get back into the grind. Returning from holiday as a macro analyst is always daunting given the barrage of news and data that you will have inevitably “missed”. From reading the news and last week’s sell and . . . → Read More: Random Shots – Catching Up

On Its Dying Breath

Here’s another sign that the United States are toast:

Mr. Saverin, who now lives in Singapore, decided last year to renounce his U.S. citizenship, a decision that was made public a few days ago. The move sparked an outcry among some tax experts who suspect he’s aiming to save on taxes. [Ya think?] Although . . . → Read More: On Its Dying Breath

A Troubling Sentence

From the Grey Lady:

The United States trade deficit surged in January to the widest imbalance in more than three years after imports grew faster than exports.

This is not a good sign. The US economy is predicated on false demand, by which I mean that the US, and the citizens thereof, buy a . . . → Read More: A Troubling Sentence

Other Alpha Sources

1. Variant Perception’s blog is up and running and while I realise there has been little or no macroeconomic analysis here for a while, there is plenty of top notch analysis over at VP’s blog. The three latest entries take a look at inflation in the UK, the divergence between Spain and Italy in sticking . . . → Read More: Other Alpha Sources

If Only There Were Some Way to Fix This

Here’s a summary of a recent paper:

The trends in offshoring and international trade that we have described are likely to accelerate. China currently employs around 120 million people in the manufacturing sector and, although some reports indicate that wages are rising in China, those wages are still only a tiny fraction of wages . . . → Read More: If Only There Were Some Way to Fix This

Uncomfortable times in real estate in store?

Patrick Chovanec has a fascinating article in Foreign Affairs, titled China’s Real Estate Bubble May Have Just Popped. This is interesting and important from two points of view.

First, bad news for China is bad news for the world economy. We are already in a bleak environment, with difficulties in Europe, Japan, the US, . . . → Read More: Uncomfortable times in real estate in store?

Reality Shining Through

BofA is apparently forecasting another downgrade:

The United States will likely suffer the loss of its triple-A credit rating from another major rating agency by the end of this year due to concerns over the deficit, Bank of America Merrill Lynch forecasts.

The trigger would be a likely failure by Congress to agree on . . . → Read More: Reality Shining Through

Random Shots - Is it Over Yet?

It was telling that just as the ECRI and other notable research outfits decided to push recession button on the US economy the data flow became notably more positive. This could be a sign of the times that the cycle is just too volatile for even capable analysts to call or it could simply . . . → Read More: Random Shots – Is it Over Yet?

Random Shots - High Expectations

If investors were hoping that the strength of commodities was sign that decoupling, led by Asia and Latam, were running on course to help the global economy expanding, events last week must surely have extinguished such hopes. Indeed, it was always a question of commodities and emerging markets catching up to the ongoing slaughter . . . → Read More: Random Shots – High Expectations

Random Shots - Down, Up or Sideways?

Of all the permutations of growth stories, scares and soft patches investors should remember that when all is said and done, the economy and market can only do three things; move down, up or sideways. Of the three, the last state is often the most interesting and challenging since while in such a state . . . → Read More: Random Shots – Down, Up or Sideways?