What is Progress?

In my last post I gave several reasons why I think the ‘good society’ is a useful concept. There is another reason. The concept of a ‘good society’ may help us to think more clearly about progress.

What is the problem with progress? I am just about old enough to remember the 1950s when the most persuasive point used in favour of any change in Australia seemed to be: “You can’t stand in the way of progress”. A lot of good things were done in the name of progress but other things, particularly uneconomic public investment in dam building etc. gave progress a bad name. More recently the concept of progress has been confused by well-meaning people who have combined national accounting concepts with idiosyncratic values to produce meaningless indicators of “genuine progress”. Further confusion results from the tendency for people who still cling to long-discredited collectivist political views to be described as progressives.


The article in “The Economist” this week (19 Dec ’09 to 1 Jan ‘10) about progress and its perils discusses the popular view that while technology and GDP advance, morals and society are either treading water or sinking back into decadence and barbarism. The general message is that despite a general tendency to shy away from judgementalism many people yearn for a sense of moral purpose. The article ends by quoting Susan Neiman, a philosopher, who asks people to reject the false choice between Utopia and degeneracy: “Moral progress, she writes, is neither guaranteed nor is it hopeless. Instead it is up to us”.


I agree that people need a sense of moral purpose. A large part of the apparent decline in sense of moral purpose, however, can be attributed to a lack of moral clarity. In particular, there seems to be a great deal of confusion about the morality of modern consumer society. It is common to hear even avid users of new technology suggesting that the production of this stuff uses scarce resources but does little to add to their happiness in the long run. So why do they buy it and use it? Could it be because such stuff provides them with improvements in communications etc that are of enduring benefit, even though it has little effect on their emotional states in the longer term? The moral issue, whether it is good for us to have such stuff, does not depend on its transitory impact on our emotional states.


In terms of public policy, if progress means anything it must mean movement toward a good society, or movement from a good society to a better society. Changes can be counted as progress if they improve our capacity to live together in peace, provide us with greater opportunities to flourish or provide us with greater security.


However, the idea of progress also embodies optimism about the future of humanity – the idea that there has been a tendency for material, political, social, intellectual and moral conditions to improve throughout human history and that such improvement will continue in the foreseeable future. Roger Kerr has recently reminded us how inspiring the idea of progress was in the 18th Century. He argues that the idea that life tends to get better over the longer term still has potential to be inspiring today.


It seems to me that despite all the existing and potential problems faced by humanity there is a basis for optimism that advance of knowledge will continue to enable people to enjoy progressively better lives in coming decades.

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The Bloated Private Sector

The great insight of modern economics is the power of markets to align the interest of society and the individual. The idea that attending to your own affairs and following your passions is all that one must contribute to society is incredibly liberating. The market system has proven an incredibly powerful, efficient and innovate tool for distributing societies resources.

But it is time that we recognize that markets are not omniscient, they are merely a tool. The invisible hand does not free us from the obligation to actively create the society that we want. There are many well documented limitation to the power of markets. There is a vast array of goods and services that markets provide better and cheaper than any other system.

But there is an equally important set of goods that are incompatible with a market system. A healthy society must find a balance between the market economy and the need for public goods. Blind faith in the superiority of private investment over public investment has skewed this balance.

I was recently watching a Seinfeld rerun and it made me realize how rapidly technology has changed day to day life. The past 15 years has seen the near universal proliferation of the internet, cell phones and a host of other innovations that have fundamentally rearranged the way that people relate to their world. Yet the achievements of the technology sector underscore the societal failure in other areas.

Over the span of a generation we have built multiple nationwide cell phone networks yet allowed our transportation infrastructure disintegrate into the laughingstock of the developed world. While the internet blossomed into the greatest conduit of information in human history we have failed to provide a depressingly large percentage of our population with an adequate education. While drug makers have cured impotency and perfected the face transplant we have raised a generation of young people that is unlikely to outlive their parents.

The brightest minds of our generation have viewed trading derivatives on wall street or developing new gadgets in Silicon Valley as valuable contributions to economic growth. While government work has been the domain of the lazy or untalented. But in the enthusiasm for private investment the central signal of a capitalist economy has been ignored.

Prices are the brains of any market; by indicating what is needed price signals lead the way for investment. So what have prices been telling us? Over the past 15 years the profit margins of consumer goods from computers to clothing to fast food have been declining. At the same time public and semi-public goods have been kicking and screaming for more investment.  It is clear that the bloated private sector has been starving the public sector of essential resources.  Once we stop pretending that the private sector is morally superior to the public sector we will better be able to allocate resources between market goods and public goods.

The Costs and Benefits of the Electronic Tagging of Criminals

Overcrowding of prisons is putting pressure on criminal justice systems to use alternatives to custodial sentences. Electronic tagging is one method which can be used either instead of, or to reduce the length of, a prison sentence or as part of a non-custodial sentence. This is in effect a form of house arrest or curfew, in which offenders are required to stay at or close to their homes for a specified number of hours per day. An electronic tag worn on their person, usually on the ankle, alerts a control center if they violate these conditions.

Although tagging has been used in the United States since the mid-1980s, it has only recently been more widely adopted around the world in countries including Canada, Australia, Singapore, Sweden and the Netherlands. Within Europe, the UK was the first country to introduce electronic tagging, initially on a trial basis in 1989 as a condition of bail, with electronic monitoring as a specific curfew order sentence later introduced under the 1991 Criminal Justice Act.

The main potential benefits of electronic tagging are cost savings to the criminal justice system and the more optimal use of prison space. However, tagging hasn’t yet been adopted as standard practice in many countries, and where it is in use, relatively little systematic research has been conducted into its costs and benefits. Much of the research which has been conducted has been in the UK, where a great deal of controversy surrounds the practice of electronic tagging.

Human Rights Issues

Although there have been no successful legal challenges to the use of tagging on grounds of human rights, it has sometimes been argued that electronic tagging violates either Convention Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights, which prohibits “inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment,” or Article 8, which provides the right to “private and family life.” In a UK study, tagged offenders complained of being stigmatized and treated like animals; cases were also identified in which tagged individuals were attacked by others who suspected them of being sex offenders. On the other hand, there is evidence that some prisoners prefer tagging to prison sentences, leading to charges on the part of opponents of tagging that it is a soft option and one which does not deter individuals from re-offending.

The case for tagging hasn’t been helped by some high-profile bad publicity, such as the case of a female suspected burglar in England, who escaped for a two-week vacation without detection while tagged, and other media stories about individuals slipping off their tags to go on a crime spree. These types of incidents generally result from inadequacies in the monitoring system used rather than a problem with electronic tagging more generally, but their sensationalist aspects tend to overshadow more serious debate about the potential role of tagging in fighting crime. Moreover, the whole issue of tagging offenders has been mixed up with proposals and counter-arguments on both sides of the Atlantic about its use for other groups, such as juvenile truants and asylum seekers, which have brought the human rights aspects of tagging to the fore.

In the absence of successful legal challenges to tagging on grounds of human rights, any future expansion of its use is likely to be driven by cost considerations as well as more robust evidence of its effectiveness in reducing re-offending. Yet the limited research in both these areas has produced findings which are inconclusive and contradictory.

Costs and Benefits

Some studies have generated estimates of significant cost savings from the use of electronic tagging, mostly extrapolated from evaluations of small-scale trials or fairly simplistic number-crunching exercises. An early evaluation of trials in the UK claimed that several million pounds a year would be saved if curfew orders with tagging were rolled out nationally, with at least two-thirds of these orders replacing custodial sentences; an online BBC report recently claimed that tagging an offender for a year costs less than 10% of the cost of imprisonment for the same period. However, electronic tagging can only generate cost savings if used to replace custodial rather than other community-based sentences, with the latter perhaps being less costly to implement and monitor. A Canadian study by the John Howard Society of Alberta observed that tagging may even add costs to the correctional system by increasing levels of control to an extent which is unnecessary for some lower-risk offenders.

Similarly, there is conflicting research evidence on the impact of tagging on re-convictions. For example, a 1999 Canadian evaluation reported that electronic monitoring had no identifiable impact on future criminal behavior, yet a 2006 Florida-based study of 75,661 tagged offenders found evidence of significant reductions in the likelihood of conviction for a technical violation or new offense. However, a 2004 Florida study provided evidence that a high proportion of the tagged individuals in that state were low-risk offenders who would probably have received non-custodial sentences anyway, so the cost-savings of electronic tagging may have been minimal.

According to 1999 research with magistrates in the UK, tagging is a useful way of disrupting patterned criminal behavior such as night-time burglaries, shoplifting and late-night public order offenses and is also effective for long-term monitoring of sex offenders and other ex-offenders who continue to present a public safety risk. However, the magistrates interviewed argued that tagging is not an appropriate way of dealing with all types of convicted criminals, especially those who might present a risk to their own family members if confined to their homes. More systematic research is needed into the use of tagging for different categories of offenders to identify how the practice can generate the greatest cost savings to the penal system as well as helping to reduce overall crime rates. Criminal justice researchers will also need to examine the potential use of new forms of surveillance technology, such GPS satellites, which may open up opportunities for more effective monitoring of offenders in the community but will also certainly bring human rights issues into the center of the debate.

References

BBC News (2005, March 20). Electronic tagging investigated. Retrieved from BBC News.

Bonta, J., Wallace-Capretta, S., & Rooney, J. (1999). Electronic Monitoring in Canada. Ottawa: Solicitor General Canada.

Bottoms, A.E., Gelsthorpe, L. & Rex, S. (2001). Community Penalties: Policy, Practice and Future Directions. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.

John Howard Society of Alberta (2000). Electronic Monitoring. Retrieved from The John Howard Society of Alberta.

Mortimer, E., Pereira, E., & Walter, I. (1999). Making the tag fit: further analysis from the first two years of the trials of curfew orders. Home Office Research findings (105).

Office of Program Policy Analysis and Government Accountability (2005). Electronic Monitoring should be Better Targeted to the Most Dangerous Offenders. Report No. 05-19. Retrieved from The Florida Monitor.

Padgett, K., Bales, B. & Blomberg, T. (2006). The Long-Term Effects of the Electronic Monitoring of Offenders in the Community. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Society of Criminology, Los Angeles Convention Center, Los Angeles, CA, Nov 01, 2006.

Stacey, T. (2006). Electronic tagging of offenders: a global view. International Review of Law, Computers & Technology 20, 1-2.