Good News?

Bernanke is apparently not seeking another term as the Fed chairman:

US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will most likely step down from his position in January 2014, even if President Barack Obama stays for a second term, according to friends of the chairman.

This probably sounds like good news, especially since there are . . . → Read More: Good News?

Pakistan, India, MFN: What are the implications?

For once, I am pleased at how India played it: India gave Pakistan MFN status way back, in 1996, without getting into the silliness of reciprocity. A hallmark of professional competence in international trade is the idea of unilateral liberalisation: Even if another country is silly enough to have barriers against us, we should . . . → Read More: Pakistan, India, MFN: What are the implications?

Recruiting the right MD for the IMF

The recruitment of the IMF MD has turned into quite a controversy. For an interesting set of views, see this page on the website of The Economist. In a remarkable development, the EDs of India, China, Russia, Brazil and South Africa came out with a clear joint statement on the silliness that is afoot.

. . . → Read More: Recruiting the right MD for the IMF

How Leftist is India?

I wrote a column in Financial Express on Friday: How leftist is India?. This draws on the data shown in this previous blog post. I just noticed a piece in The Economist which dwells on related themes which is well worth reading.

Many people wrote me email about this piece. An important criticism of . . . → Read More: How Leftist is India?

The Economics of Unions

Gary Becker (link) and Richard Posner (link) opened a discussion on how unions influence policymaking decision. Recently, president Obama imposed punitive 35 percent tariff rate on imported Chinese tire (link) risking the coming trade war. Indeed, China may file a case against the U.S at the WTO, and the WTO may rule against the . . . → Read More: The Economics of Unions

Political Risk Is Evaporating Treasuries

Political risk is increasing and predictably the Treasury bubble has been bursting.  There are major machinations going on in the bond market which will significantly affect you.

On 3 January 2009 I wrote United States Treasuries Are The Biggest Bubble Of All and on 18 January 2009 followed it up with Why And How . . . → Read More: Political Risk Is Evaporating Treasuries

Notes on the HIP

1. The careful reading and valuable insights of Harriet Baldwin, Charles Burns, Timothy Gildner, Cameron Adams, Swee Hsien Tsung and Terry Zou are gratefully acknowledged.

2. Other plans to fix the housing market focus variously on one or more parts of the problem: they aim to shore up the capital of banks, re-constitute the . . . → Read More: Notes on the HIP

This Has Worked Before!

This is a copy of the letter I originally emailed to the President, several key Congressmen and women, and news agencies, with no response. I am now sending it out to everyone I can, hoping it won’t be discounted before someone qualified will take a moment, to investigate and evaluate the concepts. For . . . → Read More: This Has Worked Before!

Worst Market Day in Six Weeks

I know a lot of market participants have been looking for this break long before today. My sense has been that they are wrong and the market recovery in the six weeks through Friday can carry a long way, surprise everyone, and ruin the bears’ year as the prices will be set by investors . . . → Read More: Worst Market Day in Six Weeks

Coming Soon: New Currency Order

Whatever you think of the young administration of President Barack Obama, you have to admit the man does not lack for ambition. He promised that sea levels would fall and the lame would walk, and everyone understands that will take at least a couple more months. But taking over the motor industry, well that’s . . . → Read More: Coming Soon: New Currency Order