Minimum Wage and Obesity

David O. Meltzer and Zhuo Chen explored the relationship between minimum wage rate in the U.S and body weight (link):

“Growing consumption of increasingly less expensive food, and especially “fast food”, has been cited as a potential cause of increasing rate of obesity in the United States over the past several decades. Because the real minimum wage in the United States has declined by as much as half over 1968-2007 and because minimum wage labor is a major contributor to the cost of food away from home we hypothesized that changes in the minimum wage would be associated with changes in bodyweight over this period. To examine this, we use data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System from 1984-2006 to test whether variation in the real minimum wage was associated with changes in body mass index (BMI). We also examine whether this association varied by gender, education and income, and used quantile regression to test whether the association varied over the BMI distribution. We also estimate the fraction of the increase in BMI since 1970 attributable to minimum wage declines. We find that a $1 decrease in the real minimum wage was associated with a 0.06 increase in BMI. This relationship was significant across gender and income groups and largest among the highest percentiles of the BMI distribution. Real minimum wage decreases can explain 10% of the change in BMI since 1970. We conclude that the declining real minimum wage rates has contributed to the increasing rate of overweight and obesity in the United States. Studies to clarify the mechanism by which minimum wages may affect obesity might help determine appropriate policy responses.”

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Are the Institutions of a “Good Society” the Same as Those of the “Great Society”?

In my last post I suggested that nearly everyone would agree that a good society has the following characteristics:
· institutions that enable its members to live in peace;
· institutions that provide opportunities for members to flourish; and
· institutions that provide members with security against various threats to flourishing e.g. foreign military threats and economic misfortune.

There is substantial overlap between the institutions of a good society and the institutions of the “great society” or “open society”, as discussed by Friedrich Hayek.

Hayek emphasized that “only the observance of common rules makes the peaceful existence of individuals in society possible” (LLL, I: 72). He argued that the aim of the rules of just conduct is to define “the protected sphere” of each person in order to prevent, as much as possible, “the actions of different individuals from interfering with each other” (LLL, I: 108). He observed: “The Great Society arose through the discovery that men can live together in peace and mutually benefiting each other without agreeing on the particular aims which they severally pursue” (LLL, II: 109). Hayek went on to make the point that in the great society we all “contribute not only to the satisfaction of needs of which we do not know, but sometimes even to the achievement of ends of which we would disapprove if we knew about them (LLL, II: 109-10). In the great society we have no way of knowing the purposes for which others will use the goods we supply.

If we perceive living in peace to be a necessary condition for a good society then I think we must accept the primacy of liberty – individual freedom and rules that determine the boundaries of the domains of freedom (the protected spheres of each person) are necessary conditions of a good society.

The implications of the primacy of liberty might be more profound than they appear at first sight. For example, a society in which the majority of people flourish could hardly be viewed as a good society if it has laws that cause individuals to be denied liberty if they pursue lifestyles that are offensive to the majority, even though those individuals have done nothing to infringe the protected spheres of other people. The majority might argue, perhaps with good reason, that the individuals concerned would have a better chance of flourishing if they were put in jail, but this does not justify the use of force to make them change their lifestyles.

Other aspects of the relationships between particular sets of institutions and opportunities for human flourishing and security against threats to flourishing seem to be of a more empirical nature. I would argue, for example, that high levels of economic freedom tend to provide greater opportunities for human flourishing, but that is a testable hypothesis. Some relevant discussion is here. Similarly, I would argue that governments have an important role in providing members of society with security, but the extent to which such a role might be warranted involves empirical questions.

The institutions of a good society may differ from those of the great society in relation to personal income security. Hayek argued that the provision of some kind of welfare safety net was not only “a wholly legitimate protection against a common risk to all, but a necessary part of the Great Society in which the individual no longer has specific claims on the members of the small group into which he was born” (LLL, III: 55). He recognized, however, that national safety nets that would be higher in wealthier countries would necessitate restrictions on migration. In my view such considerations may make it necessary for the institutions of a good society – one that its good for its members – to depart to some degree from the liberal principles of the great society.

Provident Living Principles

Many people feel tremendous stress regarding financial matters and this often has detrimental effects on their relationships and is one of the leading factors for divorce.  Like a doctor who elucidates an extremely negative diagnoses I somewhat dread explaining The Great Credit Contraction to people because of the massive effects it is having upon both the individual and the world.  When I do take the time to explain it I am usually asked:  What should I do?

Of course, the answer is unique to every individual based on their utility calculation but I think it is important to understand the different forces at work in the finance universe, have tools to measure your own financial vital signs and then build solid, healthy and strong personal financial statements as you enjoy the quality of life you desire.  Important principles to understand are (1) opposites, (2) self-sufficiency for survivalism in the suburbs and (3) preparation.

The American consumer has begun to strengthen their financial statements with a tremendous increase in the savings rate.  While this is good for the American consumer it will continue to weigh on revenue, earnings and the general economy because of the nature of the debt-based monetary system.

YIN AND YANG

At the heart of many branches of classical Chinese philosophy and science is the concept of yin and yang.  The yin and yang is used to describe how seemingly disjunct or opposing forces are interconnected and interdependent in the natural world and give rise to each other in turn.  According to the philosophy yin and yang are complementary opposites within a greater whole. Everything has both yin and yang aspects which constantly interact and never exist in absolute stasis.  An excellent example in Western culture is Star Wars with the Jedi among the Light side of the Force and the Sith among the Dark side of the Force.

So likewise in finance this principle of opposites is present:

Light Dark
Equity Debt
Tangible Asset Financial Asset
Cash-Flow Capital Gains
Investing Speculation
Gold & Silver FRN$ & Euros
Commodity Currency Fiat Currency
Freedom Slavery
Bailment Fractional Reserve Banking
Honesty Fraud
Earned Income Passive Income
Long Short

FINANCIAL VITAL SIGNS

In financial accounting there are a few basic ratios that are used to analyze financial health.  Applying the principles behind these ratios to your personal situation can be extremely helpful in measuring your financial health.

Of course, this presumes you keep financial statements which I doubt the vast majority of Americans do, in written format, which is a primary reason they are in their current situation.  One of the reasons the American consumer based economy has been shattered to pieces is because of the weakness of their balance sheets.  Even worse is that most American’s neither know nor understand the true state of their financial health.

Companies usually issue annual financial statements and therefore assets and liabilities are generally divided into current or long-term.  To distinguish current from long-term the standard is whether the transaction comes due within one year.  Three important ratios are:

1. Net worth which is assets minus liabilities.

2. Current ratio which is current assets divided by current liabilities.

3. Debt-to-equity ratio which is total liabilities divided by stockholder’s equity.

Because most individuals go through monthly financial cycles, such as paychecks, rent, mortgages, cell phone, cable, insurance, etc. I recommend shortening the standard for distinguishing current assets and liabilities from long-term; perhaps use 1, 3 or 6 months as the standard instead of a year.

The use of these ratios for financial vital signs will give a quick snapshot of your overall net worth, liquidity and leverage.  You can quickly build a spreadsheet using Google Docs and have most of this automatically calculated.

IMPORTANCE OF GOLD AND SILVER

The FRN$ has no definition, is an illusion and merely a figment of people’s imagination.  Do you know the answer to what is a dollar?  The owner’s of FRN$ are guaranteed no purchasing power.

By contrast, an ounce of silver or half of a gram of platinum will purchase approximately 2-4 gallons of gasoline or a nice steak dinner and with tools like GoldMoney you can even pay for the good or service with the physical bullion as the currency.  I recommend gold as the unit of account for the most accurate mental calculation of value.  Also, you will need to determine your own gold standard.

EARNED VERSUS PASSIVE INCOME

Work is a wonderful activity which can lead to personal development.  Sometimes work can interfere with one’s satisfaction, happiness and lifestyle balance.

When designing one’s lifestyle there are many risks that responsible people plan for by using instruments such as life or fire insurance.  The failure to plan can lead to financial destruction.  So likewise it is wise to plan one’s financial situation to include not only earned income but also passive or residual income.

Passive or residual income are earnings an individual derives from a rental property, dividends, interest payments, limited partnership and etc. in which he or she is not actively involved.  If part of your income is derived from passive or residual sources then should you become incapacitated through injury or disease, decide to take a cruise around the world, etc. then your income would not cease.

Therefore, I think it is important to distinguish between earned and passive income when measuring one’s financial vital signs.

NET WEALTH

You can buy gold with time through your labor but you cannot use your gold to buy time because time moves on wings of lightening never to be returned.  Likewise as Randy Pausch observed in his Last Lecture, “We do not beat the Reaper by living long but by living well.”  When your financial condition is extremely solid then you can pursue those hobbies, activities, etc. that will bring you the fulfillment you seek.

Net wealth is a function of three variables, (1) number of months, (2) standard of living and (3) without ‘working’.  To determine your ’standard of living’ you need to examine your current expenses to determine your total monthly expenses.  Once your passive income or passive cash-flow exceeds your expenses then your net wealth can approach infinite but keep in mind that managing your financial condition will always require some of your time and attention.

PERSONAL APPLICATION

Every individual will need to determine whether they want to measure their financial vital signs and what values they want to seek.  As with our physical vital signs there is no one that cares as much about them as ourselves and each of us intuitively knows the true state of our condition.

Being fairly conservative, extremely debt adverse and having an affinity towards sound money, cash-flow investments and self-sufficiency my ratios may be different than others who may have less financial responsibility.  I recommend (1) a positive net worth, (2) a current ratio greater than 10, (3) a debt-to-equity ratio below 10% and (4) net wealth in excess of 24 months.  Achieving these type of financial vital signs may require significant discipline but it is possible.

There are many benefits such as the freedom to live location independent, protecting your financial privacy and personal privacy, having control over who, when and where you interact with others, etc.  You also will have much more margin for error and not be in the financial condition of many Americans of being two paychecks away from insolvency.  How stressful!

The issue is not whether working 100 hours a week as an investment banker is better than doing yoga, scuba diving in exotic caves or playing with grandchildren.  Everyone has their own preferences.  The issue is having the personal freedom and financial soundness to be able to do what you want, when you want, with whom you want and where you want.

CONCLUSION

The American consumer increasingly stressed over monetary matters and the economy.  This is changing behaviors as evidenced by the rising savings rate will slow GDP and may turn into habits which last for years if not decades.  A teenager whose parents get evicted will likely be permanently affected by the experience.

In your case I would recommend keeping financial statements and calculating ratios to track your financial vital signs.  For those that want to have an extremely solid financial condition I recommend (1) a positive net worth, (2) a current ratio greater than 10, (3) a debt-to-equity ratio below 10% and (4) net wealth in excess of 24 months.  Then you will be in better financial condition to weather The Great Credit Contraction.

First Week of June Bursting Out with Good News

It was a week that was flush with positive news stories.

1. Personal income in April was reported to rebound sharply. Personal income jumped 0.5 percent in April far better than the forecast by most economists for a 0.2 percent drop. House investor’s rental income also spiked up 3.1 percent after several months of decline. The combination of higher overall income and cuts in personal income taxes from the Stimulus Act resulted in a 1.1 percent jump in disposable personal income after only a 0.1 percent rise in March. Year over year, personal income growth improved to +0.7 percent from +0.3 percent in March.

2. The ISM’s manufacturing report is moving incrementally just as we forecast here since March. Their index rose to 42.8 in May vs. 40.1 April. New orders were big news in the report. They rose above 50 for the first time in 17 months to indicate month-to-month stability for durable goods orders. Order backlogs are also improving and production was up more than 5-1/2 points in May over April.

3. Construction spending unexpectedly bounced in April. Construction outlays improved by 0.8 percent. The April gain also came in much better than most economist’s views. Most were wrong looking for a 0.8 percent decrease.

4. The Pending Existing-Home Sales index jumped a much sharper-than-expected 6.7 percent in the data for April.

5. The Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. corporate job cut index continues to plummet. It is now down 55% since its peak in January.

6. NY Fed Treasury Spread Model continues to show significantly improving economic conditions. The New York Fed states that, “Research beginning in the late 1980s documents the empirical regularity that the slope of the yield curve is a reliable predictor of future real economic activity.”

7. Payroll employment in May was unexpectedly and significantly less negative than in recent months. Initial and continuing claims for unemployment benefits are now both falling. We have now likely seen the worst of the jobs deterioration. The unemployment rate currently, might just well prove to be the high based on the confluence of this week’s positive employment data.