Stossel Does Atlas Shrugged, Asks "Who is Wesley Mouch?"

In tomorrow’s episode of John Stossel’s new show on Fox Business, he will address the question, “Who is Wesley Mouch?” in speaking to the parallels between Atlas Shrugged and contemporary America.  As one might expect, in my view it seems as if almost all businessmen (given their predilection towards using government to destroy markets to their own advantage) in one way or another embody the qualities of Wesley Mouch.

One exception who will be on Stossel’s program is John Allison, an executive at BB&T Bank, who staunchly opposed TARP, has repeatedly refused to use the law to plunder the property of others and as one might guess is an ardent Austrian-school libertarian.  In a scene reminiscent of the smoke-filled rooms of Atlas Shrugged, Allison divulged at an NYU lecture this past fall that the Feds threatened to go in and audit any bank that wouldn’t take government funds, forcing healthy banks to comply so as to cover for the fact that the government was only propping up a select few sick ones (at the expense of the solvent I might add).

In response to Stossel’s call in the aforehyperlinked column for suggestions for a follow-up show on “crony capitalism,” I posted:
John,

If you want to talk about crony capitalism, it may pay to have Burton Fulsom who wrote “The Myth of the Robber Barons” on the program.  I think the key is to delineate between political entrepreneurs and market entrepreneurs, something which he does astutely in that book.

Political entrepreneurs seek to use government decrees to profit, largely by cartelization, monopoly advantages and other barriers to entry, while market entrepreneurs generally seek to win profits in the market by merit – by producing the best product at the cheapest price.

More generally, the Mouch problem lies in the fact that while initially businessmen extol the virtues of little regulation, low barriers to entry and minimal governmental interference generally, once they become successful, out of self-interest they support any and all legislation that will cement their position in the market.  They support all of those things anathema to the free market that they had used to their advantage in the first place.

This is akin to the economic plight of America as a whole.  While up until the early 20th century (though some libertarians will argue that it was really only up until the time of Lincoln), America functioned under a largely laissez-faire economy, with the wealth and progress generated by this economy, we forgot about the virtues that led to our success and rewarded those tending towards failure.  We created a welfare state from the riches of a relatively free state, throwing under the bus the very principles that elevated to us to our position as a great nation.

Consequences of Air India Being a Zombie Airline

Air India has got itself into serious trouble, and private airlines are also doing badly. The CMIE report on air transport for August 2009 shows a bad picture for the airline industry: from the quarter ended June 2007 onwards, in each quarter, the PAT margin was negative.

There are three interesting aspects to the present situation. The first is about the role of the State. Flying by plane is a private good and not a public good. Seats in a plane are rival and excludable. I fly in a plane, I benefit. There is, hence, no role for government to be in this area. Governments in good countries do not run airlines. The right thing to do is to privatise Air India as soon as possible, without trying to engage in a government-led restructuring. In an auction, if the highest bid is a negative number, government should pay this to get the company out of public ownership.

The next point is the cost of a bailout. NHAI highways cost roughly Rs.5 crore per kilometre. Hence, if government puts Rs.5,000 crore into Air India, this comes at the opportunity cost of 1000 km of four-lane highways.

The most interesting dimension, and one that has not been widely noticed in India, is the impact of Air India upon the woes of the aviation industry. Air India today is a `zombie airline’: a firm which should be dead but isn’t only because it is artificially propped up by the government. (The phrase `zombie firms’ or `zombie banks’ originates in the experience of Japan in the late 1980s).

If market forces were allowed to work, then Air India would go into liquidation. This would lead to somewhat higher prices for air travel since competition would be reduced. In addition, it would lead to somewhat lower prices for staff (since erstwhile Air India staff would be looking for jobs) and somewhat lower prices for planes (since erstwhile Air India aircraft would be available for purchase or lease).

Other firms in the industry would thus obtain somewhat higher revenues and face somewhat lower costs.

Conversely, when a government steps in to create a zombie firm in an industry, it damages profitability and investment amongst the healthy firms of that industry. If this process goes on for a while, then otherwise healthy firms in an industry will become sick. This was the experience in Japan, when the `zombie firms’ supported by the government led to sickness spreading amongst other firms and led to a extended period of reduced private corporate investment.

In summary, one reason why the private airline industry as a whole is in the doldrums is that Air India is being artificially kept alive.

The Irony Of Antitrust

President Obama is taking a harsher stance on antitrust and monopoly than President Bush did. According to a New York Times story, the president will “take a more active approach than his predecessor in scrutinizing deals that could hurt consumers.”

Hurting consumers presumably involves restricting output and raising prices, as antitrust theory goes. Preventing that sounds heroic, like being the champion of the people, but the reality is that antitrust actions have a much better record of protecting inefficient companies at the expense of more efficient competitors and consumers. It is a fact that most antitrust actions have been brought about not on behalf of customers but, rather, on behalf of competitors. Many businesses support antitrust laws because they serve to cripple and break up their more effective competitors. The Microsoft antitrust case was concocted in a secret meeting between competitor Netscape, their state’s Senator and justice department representatives. It wasn’t about customers, but about using political power to deal with competition. The late Yale Brozen from the University of Chicago concluded that antitrust was almost always anticompetitive.

Think for yourself what your boss would say to you if you worked for an auto manufacture and said “I’ve got a great idea. Let’s use predatory pricing and drive our competitors out of business. We will sell each car at a loss and lose billions of dollars a year, but in 5 or 10 years we could capture the entire market and then charge double the price we charge now to make up for the losses.” Before your boss signed your pink slip, he would probably remind you that, once you raised the prices, the door would be open for competitors again and the losses would never be made up.

All of this is not to say that monopolies or cartels don’t or haven’t existed. Of course they have, but if you look at the record, those that have remained for any length of time are either government operated or private organizations that are protected from competition by the government. AT&T was the sole long distance provider for many decades, not because it had any special technological advantage or operational efficiency. It was only because all competitors were excluded by law. You will find that to be the general case for any monopoly or cartel.

You will also find that the sectors of the economy that are in the worst shape are those dominated by government cartels. The banking system is one of the largest cartels, with the United States system dominated by the Federal Reserve Bank. The financial meltdown, not surprisingly, rests on the manipulations by the cartel of the money supply and interest rates. The educational monopoly is failing the millions of students growing up in America. The science monopoly is producing dangerous and damaging politically motivated pseudo-science. And on and on.

The whole antitrust-monopoly industry, a multi billion dollar a year lawyer enrichment program, is based on entirely false premises. The idea that anti-competitive behavior consists in doing things that make it difficult for your competitors is an absurdity. That is what competition is. You become more efficient to get more customers. That includes economies of scale. The very things that bring prices down and increase production in a free market economy are precisely those things that are considered anti-competitive. The government should actually be congratulating those businesses that have low unit costs and efficient processes, and thus are able to offer customers lower prices.

Economist Dominick Armentano conducted a study of the most famous antitrust cases and published the work in the book “Antitrust and Monopoly: Anatomy of a Policy Failure. It details the cases and highlights the lack of evidence of consumer injury. The conclusion was that the entire antitrust system has worked “to lessen business competition, and lessen the efficiency and productivity associated with the free market process.”

In his book “How Capitalism Saved America”, Professor Thomas DiLorenzo described the state of the sectors that were the most subject to early 1900’s antitrust hysteria: “Those industries targeted as “monopolies” grew seven times faster than the rate of the economy as a whole.” Prices decreased significantly faster than in the rest of the economy. States legislation was actually passed to suppress “unhealthy competition”, by which they meant low prices.

The late 1800’s and early 1900’s was the heyday of anti-monopoly sentiment. Big businesses were definitely formidable organizations. Standard oil controlled 88% of the infant oil industry in 1890. By the time the Supreme Court reaffirmed the ruling that Standard Oil was a monopoly in 1911, its market share had dropped to 64%. By 1911, there were 147 oil companies. Costs were continuously declining and prices dropped to a fraction of what they were a couple of decades earlier. Output was increasing, not just for Standard, but for most of growing number of producers. The core justifications for antitrust were false.

The epitome of antitrust irrationality was the 58,000 page Alcoa decision. It concluded that Alcoa’s skill, foresight and industry were exclusionary. It forestalled competition by stimulating demand and then supplying it. Judge Learned Hand opined that “…we can think of no more effective exclusion than progressively to embrace each new opportunity as it opened, and to face every newcomer with new capacity already geared into a great organization, having the advantage of experience, trade connection and the elite of personnel.” Quite obviously, if they faced each opportunity with new capacity, they were not restricting supply in the least. Others could not compete because Alcoa was so efficient and prices were so low. To antitrust lawyers and judges, up always seems to be down. Very smart people can say and do very dumb things.

Obama has apparently surrounded himself with very smart people. Unfortunately for the citizens of the United States, the smarter they are, the more arrogant the approach seems to be, and the dumber the things they do. Larry Summers, chief economic advisor to the president, intends to use “behavioral economics” in antitrust cases, the use of psychology to determine how “real people” should act. This opens new avenues of attack, and will possibly add billions of dollars to the tabs of taxpayers and to the customers who have to pay for the defense and the increased prices due to crippled competitiveness of the top producers.

I am sure Mr. Summers and his bureaucratic colleagues are sincere, and may even think they are doing the right thing. Being smart and powerful, however, doesn’t make you right, and it doesn’t make sense out of nonsense.