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	<title>Citizen Economists &#187; money</title>
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	<description>Citizen Economists is an online economics magazine written by citizen journalists. These ordinary citizens provide reports and commentary on the current events affecting the economics of the fields they work in.</description>
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		<title>Has Gold&#8217;s Uptrend Been Broken?</title>
		<link>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2011/12/20/has-golds-uptrend-been-broken/</link>
		<comments>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2011/12/20/has-golds-uptrend-been-broken/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Dec 2011 14:55:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bron Suchecki</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fiat currency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[money]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/?p=10218</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I have a post up on the corporate blog featuring a Sharelynx log chart of the gold price.</p> <p>There is also a very good video of why gold was (is?) favoured as money over other elements/metals in this post The Science Of Gold</p> <p>And in response to this cheeky question from JR re that <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2011/12/20/has-golds-uptrend-been-broken/">Has Gold&#8217;s Uptrend Been Broken?</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>I have <a href="http://www.perthmintbullion.com/blog/blog/11-12-20/Has_Gold_s_Uptrend_Been_Broken.aspx">a post</a> up on the corporate blog featuring a <a href="http://www.sharelynx.com/index2.php">Sharelynx</a> log chart of the gold price.</p>
<p>There is also a very good video of why gold was (is?) favoured as money over other elements/metals in this post <a href="http://www.perthmintbullion.com/blog/blog/11-12-19/The_Science_Of_Gold.aspx">The Science Of Gold</a></p>
<p>And in response to this cheeky question from JR re that post &#8220;Is the Perth Mint claiming that gold is money due to its unaltering quality!?&#8221;, the answer is No. The &#8220;What others are thinking&#8221; category on the corporate blog is for non official views and maybe the wording &#8220;gold is all but unrivalled as the outstanding candidate for money&#8221; could have been a bit more qualified in retrospect. <img src='http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /> </div>
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		<title>Casey Research Summit Special Report: Surviving the Death of Money</title>
		<link>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2011/10/10/casey-research-summit-special-report-surviving-the-death-of-money/</link>
		<comments>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2011/10/10/casey-research-summit-special-report-surviving-the-death-of-money/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 10 Oct 2011 18:50:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>The Gold Report</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[asset valuation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fiat currency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[money]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[quantitative easing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[silver]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[volatility]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/?p=9354</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p> When the currency system as we know it dies, some people will become very wealthy. In this special report from the Casey Research/Sprott Inc. Summit &#8220;When Money Dies,&#8221; The Gold Report cornered Global Resource Investments Founder and Chairman Rick Rule, Casey Research Senior Editor Louis James and Casey Energy Opportunities Senior Editor Marin <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2011/10/10/casey-research-summit-special-report-surviving-the-death-of-money/">Casey Research Summit Special Report: Surviving the Death of Money</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img style="padding-top: 5px;" src="http://www.streetwisereports.com/images/MarinKatusa_rev.jpg" alt="Marin Katusa" hspace="10" width="82" height="102" align="left" /> <img style="padding-top: 5px;" src="http://www.streetwisereports.com/images/LouisJames_rev.jpg" alt="Louis  James" hspace="10" width="82" height="102" align="left" /> <img style="padding-top: 5px;" src="http://www.streetwisereports.com/images/RickRule_rev.jpeg" alt="Rick Rule" hspace="10" width="82" height="102" align="left" /> When the currency system as we know it dies, some people will become  very wealthy. In this special report from the Casey Research/Sprott Inc.  Summit &#8220;When Money Dies,&#8221; <em>The Gold Report</em> cornered Global Resource Investments Founder and Chairman Rick Rule, Casey Research Senior Editor Louis James and <em>Casey Energy Opportunities</em> Senior Editor Marin Katusa for a roundtable discussion on the best  strategies for thriving during the coming economic transition.</p>
<p><em><strong>The Gold Report:</strong></em> Since we are at a conference  called &#8220;When Money Dies,&#8221; please explain who killed money and how, after  all these years of governments around the world trying everything from  quantitative easing to bank bailouts, we are still in the midst of the  weakest global economy in this generation&#8217;s history?</p>
<p><strong>Rick Rule:</strong> The answer is in an old Pogo Cartoon that reads: &#8220;I have seen the enemy  and he is us.&#8221; Collectively in the West, we have lived beyond our means  for a substantial amount of time. We rely on a government that we have  paid to steal from our neighbors. Money is how we deal with transfers.  Dealing with transfers dishonestly by making more of the medium that  isn&#8217;t backed by any value is the process by which money dies.</p>
<p><strong>Louis James: </strong>The  problem is that you are asking the guardian who has stolen the goods to  recover them. Government has been in charge of money for hundreds of  years. When it is debased, you have to ask: &#8220;Who was watching the hens  in the hen house?&#8221; When you discover who the fox is, you don&#8217;t want to  put him back in charge.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> We are looking at  quantitative easing 3 (QE3) in the U.S. Europe is considering the same  thing. Even China is doing its version. Will money actually die or will  it all inflate together?</p>
<p><strong>Marin Katusa:</strong> I am going to take  the contrarian view. With all this quantitative easing, there is  actually asset deflation occurring right now if you look at the  valuations from an equity standpoint. Trillions will be printed, but  look at the deflation in the assets. He who has cash will be king  because he can afford to buy these discounted stocks. If you do your  homework and be sharp, you will make a fortune in the next three years.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> But money is an asset; cash is an asset. If you are holding your wealth in money wouldn&#8217;t it all deflate?</p>
<p><strong>MK:</strong> It&#8217;s all about purchasing power. Look at Canada&#8217;s largest oil company.  It is just as good of a company as it was three months ago, but it has  lost half its market cap, which means your dollar will buy more of a  great company. It isn&#8217;t inflationary all across the board. It&#8217;s an asset  deflationary market. That is a current example of equity asset  deflation in the market right now.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> So cash will deflate less rapidly than physical equities?</p>
<p><strong>MK:</strong> Yes, right now.</p>
<p><strong>RR:</strong> It is likely that the purchasing power of Western currencies will lose  5%–7% compounded for a long while, maybe until they go extinct. But in  the interim, when you are experiencing incredible volatility, that is  demonstrably better than losing 30% per anum in assets that are  illiquid. Despite the fact that money is going to die, perversely you  have to have lots of it to take advantage of the liquidity crisis.</p>
<p><strong>LJ:</strong> You see, inflation figures are averages. Asset price destruction in a  certain area doesn&#8217;t negate monetary inflation, nor its impact on other  prices. Tremendous money creation is going on. This has economic  consequences. The guy at the supermarket can see it even if his house is  worth less. It is the worst of all possible models. Necessities cost  more, but once trusted assets—the store of wealth in real estate and  pensions—are depreciating. This has investment and economic  consequences. The government is creating all this money and blowing it  out the window. You have to figure out where to stand with a net.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> How do you know what way the wind is blowing so you know where to place your net?</p>
<p><strong>LJ:</strong> It&#8217;s all about stuff. Stuff people need is, in general, good when paper  or theoretical money is bad. In certain asset classes, including real  stuff, there will be price destruction. Real estate, for instance, still  has a speculative side to it and has not yet bottomed. But  fundamentally, real stuff that has value can&#8217;t just blow away. The world  will go forward. People will need food and raw materials. Gold is  another vehicle with intrinsic value. These things can&#8217;t be inflated out  of existence. When prices on valuable stuff goes down ridiculously,  that should be seen as a godsend. People will still need copper, steel  and timber. Buy when that stuff is priced low and wait for it to go  high, then sell.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> Oil is priced in dollars. Is there a dollar price above which demand stops?</p>
<p><strong>MK:</strong> Yes, that is why you have to put the price into perspective when  considering an investment. Are you valuing a company at $60, $70 or  $80/barrel (bbl.) oil? If a company isn&#8217;t making money at $60/bbl. oil,  you don&#8217;t want to own that stock.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> The market in the  last six months has been volatile, but it seems to be like a roller  coaster coming back to where it started. Is there a bigger trend moving  daily prices?</p>
<p><strong>RR:</strong> Dramatic volatility will lead to higher  highs and lower lows. Despite the fact that it may look like a mean on a  chart, people who experience it don&#8217;t experience a mean. They  experience extraordinary discomfort. The fact that a $10 stock becomes a  $7 stock in a few days causes people to speculate less frequently. It  tames the animal spirits. The volatility will act as a depressant on the  market.</p>
<p>That is why it is important to understand the causes of  these fluctuations. QE is a polite way of saying counterfeiting. If you  debase the denominator, the numerator doesn&#8217;t seem to matter much. You  are actively debasing the currency by making it less rare. In the  process, the government has declared a war on savers, reducing the  utility they could get through traditional savings, forcing them to make  more speculative investments.</p>
<p>The problem is even deeper than  that, however. At the same time you have plentiful money, you have  restrictive credit. People assume prices get set across the whole  spectrum, but they get set on the margin and dramatically on the margin  based on the psychology of the participants. It makes no sense. Look at  the downdrafts in commodities. Nothing about the utility of copper  caused it to fall. But interdraft lending dried up and when credit goes  away, fabricators, traders and shippers can buy. Economic dislocations  like this cause the market to be really volatile for substantial periods  of time, which will unnerve many market participants.</p>
<p>I am actually fairly excited about it. I believe if it is going to happen anyway, find a way to enjoy it.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> Marin, you are skilled at mathematics. Your models help assess  equities. In a market driven by psychology and government policies, how  relevant are your models and have you changed the factors you use to  value companies?</p>
<p><strong>MK:</strong> Since so many people are investing on  emotion in the resource sector, you have to take your profits in a bull  market and have lots of cash on hand to take advantage of deals in a  bear market. In the program I created, there are literally thousands of  variables you can analyze and interpret, but one of my favorite metrics  for the junior exploration sector is the Casey Cash Box Indicator. One  year ago, three companies were trading for less than cash on hand. Now I  know of a little over 30. But, we are no where near the low of March  2009 when over one-third of all the companies on the TSX and TSX-V were  trading less than cash. The Cash Box Indicator is what I use to give me a  &#8220;feel&#8221; of the psychological sentiment in the market. When there are  lots of companies trading under cash, people are fearful, and that is  good if you&#8217;re looking for value.</p>
<p>For the junior exploration  companies that do not have any tangible assets, the models I use for  producing projects with cash flow are not as relevant.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> Louis, you are out there visiting companies all over the world. In this market, how important is management?</p>
<p><strong>LJ:</strong> It is and it isn&#8217;t. Having competent people to run the show is  imperative. The alternative is non-competent people. Who wants that?  Incompetence shows up quickly in performance. But just because a company  has good people and a good project doesn&#8217;t mean it will do well; nature  may not cooperate with exploration, or it could run out of money. When  fear is in the driver&#8217;s seat, people are less willing to take chances,  even on good people.</p>
<p>In the end, volatility is your best friend  because you know that a market that&#8217;s down will go up again. When your  favorite wine or something you value goes on sale, you don&#8217;t complain.  You celebrate and buy two. We have that opportunity now. Wall Street  hates volatility, Howe Street loves volatility—or it should, even on the  downside, because that is a sign that it&#8217;s shopping season.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> In the 1970s, we saw a bullish precious metals market, followed by a  big upside. This time we had a big upside and now extreme volatility.  Have we already experienced the extent of the bull side?</p>
<p><strong>RR:</strong> You have to acknowledge the fact that despite volatility&#8217;s  unpleasantness, it can be an opportunity. Gold and silver still have a  long way to go although it may not be straight up. Even if it were to go  to $2,500/ounce (oz.) eventually, it could test $1,000/oz. first. You  have to have an understanding of history in order to understand what you  might face. Keep cash on hand to take advantage of the volatility.  Prepare yourself to have the courage to take advantage of the dips. A  lot of people have been responsible investors and studied everything  about the market except themselves. They haven&#8217;t prepared themselves.  You need the cash and courage to use volatility.</p>
<p>Be careful,  however. Don&#8217;t get your information from the market. The market is a  mob. It is a facility to buy fractional ownership of businesses. But you  have to get a sense of the value of the business to make good  decisions. Take advantage of the idiocy of the other players. Other  players only drive value of the stock in the short term. In the long  term, the company fundamentals will determine the value of the business.  What the three people in this room have become good at is buying  companies that will be taken over by the industry at higher prices  later. Playing foolishness is fun, but that is less important than the  fundamentals associated with the valuations of the companies. The safest  and most consistent money is made when you find discrepancies in the  valuation of a company and the market valuation and play the arbitrage.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> How can you value gold in a volatile market like this where the price  of gold can vary between $1,000/oz. and $1,900/oz. Do those lows wipe  out some companies?</p>
<p><strong>LJ:</strong> The average cost of production  for most companies is $600/oz. Even at $1,000/oz. gold, a 40% margin in  any industry is considered pretty good. A lot of mining companies are  making lots of money right now, which means they are fundamentally  strong. In the face of that, when the market fluctuates, it&#8217;s a good  thing; it brings opportunity. I have stocks in my portfolio that we have  been able to take profits on when they were high and buy again when  they were stupid cheap. We have been able to make doubles this way  multiple times—on the same stock.</p>
<p>But not all gold stocks are  production stories. How do you value an exploration play where there is  no particular asset? That is difficult. You can use peers, or speculate  about what the company might have in the ground if it is successful and  try to estimate a value. Whatever path you choose, you should have some  kind of metric, a sense of what is reasonable.</p>
<p>A great example of how volatility can create opportunity and profits is <a href="http://www.theaureport.com/pub/co/2283" target="_blank">Extorre Gold Mines Ltd. (XG:TSX; XG:NYSE.A; E1R:Fkft)</a>, the spin out from <a href="http://www.theaureport.com/pub/co/413" target="_blank">Exeter Resource Corp. (XRC:TSX; XRA:NYSE.A; EXB:Fkft)</a>,  operating mostly in Santa Cruz, Argentina. I have been there and looked  at the main asset. I have no doubt the flagship Cerro Moro project is  going to be a highly profitable mine, unless the government goes  completely insane. Extorre had good exploration success there and has  started getting very positive results from a second project. Based on  this work, Extorre went from CAD$2 to CAD$14, so naturally we took  profits along the way. I love Extorre, but at CAD$12, its market cap was  greater than some profitable producers with cash flow and it was still  just exploring. Now, with no bad news from the company, the market  correction has the stock down to CAD$7. We know more about its assets  now than we did when the shares were higher, but it&#8217;s selling cheaper,  so it&#8217;s a better value now. We don&#8217;t know when things will go up and  down, we just know they will. We know when they are cheap it is a good  time to buy; when they are expensive, it&#8217;s a good time to take profits.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> It seems like investors have to be more active now, going in and out of stocks. They can&#8217;t just buy and sit on them.</p>
<p><strong>MK:</strong> You have to be careful in this volatile market. An investor needs to  understand what type of investor he/she is. If you are a day trader,  this is your type of market, because the volatility and big swings are  present. I don&#8217;t believe relative valuation. I think it is important to  distinguish between intrinsic valuation and relative valuation. But the  answer to your question really depends on what type of investor you are  and why you bought the specific stock. In my experience, my biggest  gains have been buying big positions in companies where I believed in  management and the projects, and bought more when the stock was down,  and held the stock for more than a few years.</p>
<p><strong>LJ:</strong> There is  a distinction between resource investing and mainstream investing.  Tried and true Graham-Dodd analysis was never applicable to our industry  because the underlying commodities change too quickly, making even the  biggest companies too fickle for that sort of securities analysis.  However, I would posit that Wall Street is becoming more like Howe  Street in a post-Lehman Brothers world. Everyone is taking more risk.  There is no safe place anywhere in the world where you can buy a stock  and forget about it.</p>
<p><strong>RR:</strong> The two central tenets of Ben Graham&#8217;s book <em>The Intelligent Investor</em> deal with evaluating the margin of safety and management. You have to  speculate in companies that have the financial wherewithal to weather  the most immediate risks. In today&#8217;s volatile market, you are competing  against manic-depressive traders who show up one day wanting to pay more  than what you have is worth and the next day willing to sell for less  than their assets are worth. In a devotion to net-nets, one of the best  indicators of when you ought to be all-in is when it is full of people  so disgusted in the market they are selling for less than they are  worth. It&#8217;s a great time to be an investor.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> If a lot of these companies are worthless, how does the average investor know which companies can go the distance?</p>
<p><strong>LJ:</strong> You have to make your own decisions based on your risk tolerance. Your  mileage will vary. Read the financial statements, talk to management. At  some point you have to act, but you can and should wait until you are  fully confident in your investment decision, so your confidence won&#8217;t be  easily shaken by market volatility. It&#8217;s not like baseball; you can  wait for the perfect ball, so don&#8217;t swing until you&#8217;re sure you&#8217;re  buying low.</p>
<p><strong>MK:</strong> Great tools are available. Watch the legends and insiders to see what they are buying and selling.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> My last question is how does a new investor start in this industry?</p>
<p><strong>RR:</strong> Go for a walk. Have a conversation with yourself. Do a personality  audit. How hard are you willing to work and what is your risk tolerance?  If you aren&#8217;t willing to work and don&#8217;t like volatility, try owning  physical trusts, ETFs or seniors. If you have a longer-term perspective  and stomach for volatility, you can take advantage of the opportunities  in the junior space. But you need to have a plan.</p>
<p><strong>MK:</strong> You  can&#8217;t succeed unless you are passionate in whatever you do. If you  don&#8217;t really like the sector, then you won&#8217;t go as deep as you need to  have success and you won&#8217;t make the best decisions. Make sure you have a  passion for mining. And have fun. Life is short.</p>
<p>You also have  to be willing to make lonely trades. When everyone else says you are  wrong, that is when investing becomes very interesting.</p>
<p><strong>RR:</strong> Just because everyone else&#8217;s money dies, that doesn&#8217;t mean your money has to die. You are responsible for your future.</p>
<p><em>Founder and CEO of <a href="http://www.sprottglobal.com/" target="_blank">Global Resource Investments</a> and President of <a href="http://www.sprottusa.com/" target="_blank">Sprott Asset Management USA</a>, <a href="http://www.sprottglobal.com/team/rick-rule" target="_blank">Rick Rule</a> began his career in the securities business in 1974 and has been  principally involved in natural resource security investments ever  since. He is a leading American retail broker and asset manager  specializing in mining, energy, water utilities, forest products and  agriculture. Rule&#8217;s company has built a sterling reputation for its  specialist expertise in taking advantage of global opportunities in the  resources industries. In 2011, Rule closed a landmark deal with Eric  Sprott, Founder of Sprott Inc., another famous powerhouse in the arena.  Sprott Inc. offers resource-oriented investors opportunities in  segregated managed accounts, mutual funds, hedge funds and private  partnerships. The collective organization offers unparalleled expertise  and access to investment opportunities in all resource sectors. Sprott  Inc. manages a portfolio of small-cap resource investments worth more  than $8 billion and boasts a workforce of more than 130 professionals in  Canada and the U.S.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.theaureport.com/pub/htdocs/expert.html?id=401" target="_blank">Louis James</a> is chief metals and mining investment strategist at Casey Research, where he is also the senior editor of </em><a href="http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=217&amp;ppref=AUR217IN0811A" target="_blank">Casey&#8217;s International Speculator</a>, Casey Investment Alert <em>and </em>Conversations with Casey.<em> When not in meetings with mining company executives in Vancouver, B.C.,  James regularly travels the world evaluating highly prospective  geological targets and visiting explorers and producers getting to know  their management teams. For more than 25 years, Casey Research, headed  by investor and best-selling author Doug Casey, has been helping  self-directed investors to earn returns through innovative investment  research designed to take advantage of market dislocations.</p>
<p>Investment Analyst <a href="http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/htdocs/expert.html?id=402" target="_blank">Marin Katusa</a> is the senior editor of <a href="http://www.caseyresearch.com/cm/middle-east-oil-crisis?ppref=AUR407IN0611A" target="_blank">Casey&#8217;s Energy Report</a>,  Casey&#8217;s Energy Opportunities and Casey&#8217;s Energy Confidential. He left a  successful teaching career to pursue what has proven an equally  successful—and far more lucrative—career analyzing and investing in  junior resource companies. With a stock pick record of 19 winners in a  row—a 100% success rate last year—Katusa&#8217;s insightful research has made  his subscribers a great deal of money. Using his advanced mathematical  skills, he created a diagnostic resource market tool that analyzes and  compares hundreds of investment variables. Through his own investments  and his work with the Casey team, Katusa has established a network of  relationships with many of the key players in the junior resource sector  in Vancouver. In addition, he is a member of the Vancouver Angel Forum,  where he and his colleagues evaluate early seed investment  opportunities. Katusa also manages a portfolio of international real  estate projects.</em></p>
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		<title>Modeling the Role of Money</title>
		<link>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2011/01/11/modeling-the-role-of-money/</link>
		<comments>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2011/01/11/modeling-the-role-of-money/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Jan 2011 20:50:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Claus Vistesen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economic Theory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[consumption]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[exchange of goods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[money]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[savings rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wealth]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/?p=6171</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[ <p>If you ask the layman about what economics is the answer you get is likely to contain the notion of money. This is understandable. After all, if economists do not study money in some form or the other what are we doing then?</p> <p>As such, you might be surprised to learn that in <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2011/01/11/modeling-the-role-of-money/">Modeling the Role of Money</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>
<p>If you ask the layman about what economics is the answer you get is likely to contain the notion of <em>money</em>. This is understandable. After all, if economists do not study money in some form or the other what are we doing then?</p>
<p>As such, you might be surprised to learn that in the grand sweep of  the economic literature, economists have often found it very difficult  to explicitly model the role of money and indeed to incorporate this  role into the overall model framework. Put very generally, graduate econ  students will see two types of models which incorporate money. The  first is the money in utility model (MIU) where money is simply added,  alongside consumption, to the utility of the representative individual  and where some form of monetary instrument (e.g. bonds) are added to the  wealth and thus inter the problem through the budget constraint. The  other is the cash in advance model (CIA) where we essentially assume  that consumers must hold cash solely for the purpose of buying the goods  that they want. Or in more convuluted terms; to facilitate the exchange  of goods and services.</p>
<p>If the story above is the one that trickles down into the the  university classroom the real world is of course more complicated and  any student who starts to dig deeper will find a diverse literature  which, notably, have been greatly enriched on the back of the financial  crisis.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/working_papers/2010/wp2010_14.pdf">A paper from the Chicago Fed</a> by Ed Nosal, Christopher Waller, and Randall Wright takes a look at recent endeavors in this field.</p>
<p>The first question which you would probably like to ask is; why the  neglect by economists of money and the explicit modelling of something  so important? Well, in the word of the authors, blame it on the general  equilibriumnistas;</p>
<blockquote><p>The reason many economists either ignore institutions like money, or  slip them in with short cuts, is this: they do not take seriously the  nature of the process of exchange. Following classical general  equilibrium theory, agents do not trade with each other, but trade only  against their budget constraints. Any bundle that is worth no more than  the value of ones endowment is available, with no discussion of how it  is to be acquired. Everyone worth his salt understands that there is no  role in Debreus frictionless paradigm for money, intermediation, or  anything else that facilitates the process of exchange since this  process is not part of model.</p></blockquote>
<p>But this is not the whole explanation (fortunately). As the authors  go on to explain, many economists sees the working of money as the <em>plumbing behind the scene</em> and thus that it should be assumed to simple do its work (i.e.  facilitate the exchanges in a Arrow-Debreu GE world). However, as the  authors point out; what happens when the plumbing goes wrong? Indeed,  what happens when liquidity, credit and ultimately money transmission  mechanisms breaks down?</p>
<blockquote><p>Some have argued that modeling the details of exchange and  intermediation is nothing more than studying the plumbingof the  economy it all works well behind the scenes and so we do not need to  pay attention to it. This seems wrong. How do we know it is working well  if we do not pay attention to it? What happens if the plumbinggoes  bad? We know what this entails, and it is not pretty. We believe that it  is dangerous to ignore the details of plumbingand that the recent  nancial crisis makes this obvious. We therefore think that it is  important to study institutions that help to facilitate exchange, and  the papers in this special issue do just that.</p></blockquote>
<p>And here then is the cue to go read the paper or at least to bookmark  it. Note in particular how the authors group recent contributions in  the context of money, credit and liquidity and thus what was originally  simply a facilitator of exchange has now become a much broader concept.</p>
<p>Naturally, economists of an Austrian pedigree have known this for a  while and one decidedly fruitful consequence of the financial crisis is  the nascent incorporation of their thoughts into the mainstream economic  methodology [1].</p>
<p>&#8212;</p>
<p>A lot has been written about Japanese savings and especially about  when they would run out so as to make the country dependent on  foreigners for the financing for the ever growing mountain of public  debt. <a href="http://clausvistesen.squarespace.com/alphasources-blog/2010/1/21/paging-martin-wolf-a-detailed-look-at-savings-in-japan.html">I have written extensively about this</a> basically arguing that while the flow of savings in Japan is indeed  inadequate for the ongoing financing of the debt, Japan has two things  in their favor. The first is a large stock of domestic savings of which  not everything, yet, is parked in government bonds and secondly, central  bank which will be forced into taking up any bid that would otherwise  have gone to yield hungry bond vigilantes.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/%7Eifd/doc/IFD_WP34.pdf">A recent working paper by Tokuo Iwaisakoy and Keiko Okadaz</a> from the Japan Ministry of Finance Policy Research Institute (PRI) looks to be well worth reading; (my emphasis);</p>
<blockquote><p>The decline in Japans household saving rate accelerated sharply  after 1998, but then decelerated again from 2003. Such nonlinear  movement in the sav- ing rate cannot be explained by the monotonic trend  of population aging alone. According to the life cycle model of  consumption and saving, popu- lation aging will increase short-run  uctuations in the saving rate, because the consumption of older  households is less sensitive to income shocks. Ana- lyzing income and  spending data for di¤erent age groups, we argue that this is exactly  what happened during the recession following the banking panic of  1997/98. Two important changes in income distribution are associated  with this mechanism. First, the negative labor income shock, which in  the initial stages of the lost decadewas mostly borne by the younger  genera- tion, spread to older working households in the late 1990s and  early 2000s. <strong>Second, there was a signicant income shift from  labor to shareholders asso- ciated with the corporate restructuring  being undertaken during this time. This resulted in a decline in the  wage share, so that the increase in corporate saving o¤set the decline  in household saving</strong>.</p></blockquote>
<p>An important aspect of Japan&#8217;s economy is the ongoing increase in  corporate savings which is just about the only chart on the Japanse  economy (apart from the public debt to GDP one) going up. Indeed, it may  just be one of the most important charts to understand Japan&#8217;s economy;</p>
<p><em>(click for larger image)</em></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/TSssTOcK7DI/AAAAAAAABlE/vXa5UrtPSeM/s1600/Japan%2BCorporate%2BEarnings.JPG"><img src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/TSssTOcK7DI/AAAAAAAABlE/vXa5UrtPSeM/s320/Japan%2BCorporate%2BEarnings.JPG?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1294675099830" alt="" /></a></p>
<p>Retained earnings have grown at an average of 4% since 2000 and has  thus offset, to a large extent, the decline in private household  savings.</p>
<p>&#8212;</p>
<p>[1] &#8211; Indeed Austrians seem have become more mainstream in the  aftermath of the financial crisis as a whole. This is no doubt to their  great lament since it means you actually have to provide <em>policy advice</em> and not just advocate eternal damnation and bloodletting.</div>
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		<title>The Regression Theorem Understood And Applied</title>
		<link>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/12/23/the-regression-theorem-understood-and-applied/</link>
		<comments>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/12/23/the-regression-theorem-understood-and-applied/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Dec 2010 20:43:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Trace Mayer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Monetary Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fiat currency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[money]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[silver]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/?p=6031</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Regarding the regression theorem, can the grandson also be the great-grand father? Ideas can only be overcome by other ideas and words proffer the instruments to meaning. The ability to wield words concisely, accurately and orderly is essential for communication and persuasion. Much of discourse, particularly from court economists, has devolved into sophistry and <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/12/23/the-regression-theorem-understood-and-applied/">The Regression Theorem Understood And Applied</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Regarding the <a title="regression theorem" href="http://www.runtogold.com/2010/12/regression-theorem/" target="_blank">regression theorem</a>, can the grandson also be the great-grand father? Ideas can only be overcome by other ideas and words proffer the instruments to meaning. The ability to wield words concisely, accurately and orderly is essential for communication and persuasion. Much of discourse, particularly from <a title="court economists" href="http://www.runtogold.com/2009/04/insane-psycho-sociopathic-court-economists/" target="_blank">court economists</a>, has devolved into sophistry and incomprehensible babbling.<img src="http://www.it-star.org/files/231210/231210.jpg" border="0" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<div><strong>Can The Grandson Also Be The Great Grand Father?</strong></div>
<p><strong>FOFOA’S QUESTION</strong></p>
<p>In an extremely verbose and conflated article the pseudo-anonymous <a title="fofoa" href="http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/12/focal-point-gold.html" target="_blank">FOFOA</a> asks, “Does anyone have any evidence that silver is still money today?”</p>
<p>I find a few of FOFOA’s assertions fairly odd, especially for a voice in the gold niche. For example,</p>
<p>Money is debt, by its very nature, whether it is gold, paper, sea shells, tally sticks or lines drawn in the sand. (Another shocking statement?) Yes, even gold used as money represents debt. More on this in a moment. …</p>
<p>First, money. Money is always an overvalued something. Usually a commodity of some sort. But it can be as simple as an overvalued line in the sand, or a digital entry in a computer database. But the key is, it is always overvalued relative to its industrial uses! That’s what makes it money! …</p>
<p>Did you hear him at 6:35? “Only one metal in the world that fits the bill for money, and that’s gold!” That’s right Joe! Good job from the “Silverfuturist”. There can be only one!</p>
<p><a title="mish" href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/12/gold-is-money-what-about-silver-can.html" target="_blank">Mish</a> has chimed in on many of FOFOA’s fallacies.</p>
<p>There is a reason Chapter One of my book <a title="the great credit contraction" href="http://www.creditcontraction.com" target="_blank">The Great Credit Contraction</a> is titled Word Games. In that chapter, I present the two competing theories of money, market versus Chartalism, along with an example of the regression theorem and then distinguish money, money substitutes and illusions which can all function as either currency or legal tender or both. What is so odd about FOFOA’s fallacious assertions is that they contradict basic principles of monetary science.</p>
<p><strong>SCALPEL PLEASE – DISTINGUISHING TERMS</strong></p>
<p>The conflation of the terms <em>money</em>, <em>money substitutes</em>, <em>illusions</em>, <em>currency</em> and <em>legal tender</em> is one of the greatest problems in understanding monetary science. Let’s examine each.</p>
<p><em>Legal tender</em> by government decree must be accepted if offered in payment of a debt. <em>Currency</em> can be examined either broadly or narrowly and in its narrow examination it is the medium of exchange most commonly used in ordinary daily transactions.</p>
<p><em>Illusions</em> are figments of people’s imagination and for our discussion we will consider them negotiable instruments that promise nothing. Staying within this same discussion, <em>money substitutes</em> are negotiable instruments that promise the payment of money.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<div><strong>Therefore, it follows that gold cannot be debt and is obviously a form of currency that is no-one’s liability.</strong></div>
<div></div>
<div>
<p><a title="Permanent link to The Regression Theorem Understood And Applied" href="http://www.runtogold.com/2010/12/regression-theorem/"><img style="margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto;" src="../wp-content/plugins/wp-o-matic/cache/b5c35_one-ring.jpg" alt="one ring" width="520" height="187" /></a></div>
<p><strong>THE REGRESSION THEOREM</strong></p>
<p>This <a title="ron paul" href="http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/bank/hba62930.000/hba62930_0f.htm" target="_blank">exchange between Dr. Ron Paul and Dr. Alan Greenspan</a> centered the issue on the definition of money.</p>
<p>Congressman Ron Paul: So it is hard to manage something you cannot define.</p>
<p>Dr. Greenspan: It is not possible to manage something you cannot define.</p>
<p><strong>First</strong>, it should be noted that Greenspan implicitly admits the faulty argument behind Chartalism. <strong>Second</strong>, a fairly basic theory of monetary science is the regression theorem, one of many contributions by Ludwig von Mises, and answers the question why do illusions, money substitutes or money have purchasing power? For those unfamiliar with the regression theorem, before continuing, you may want to read <a title="bob murphy" href="http://mises.org/daily/1333" target="_blank">Bob Murphy’s short article</a>.</p>
<p>What is Mish’s response? “Like FOFOA I believe gold is money. However, unlike FOFOA I think money is whatever the free market says it is. The problem is, we do not have a free market we only have government decree mandating the use of dollars, Pounds, Yen, Renmimbi, Euros, and Francs as money.”</p>
<p>This answer from Mish regarding the competing theories of money is the only reasonable and rational response.</p>
<p>But I disagree with Mish’s assertion that a free market does not exist. Individuals are sovereign and ‘endowed by their Creator’ with rights. The free market existed first and then the State was created. This is the same reason Chartalism is philosophically flawed.</p>
<p>Sure, the <a title="statetrix" href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P772Eb63qIY" target="_blank">Statetrix</a> is extremely strong today but most individuals still have <a title="freedom of movement" href="http://www.howtovanish.com/2009/06/how-whti-affects-you/" target="_blank">freedom of movement</a> which allows people to vote with their feet. Until the free will of mankind is completely violated worldwide through the establishment of a new world order or one world government then a free market will exist. A new world order is not likely because of the <strong>failed</strong> <a title="fiat currency fractional reserve banking conspiracy" href="http://www.runtogold.com/2010/11/fiat-currency-fractional-reserve-banking-conspiracy/" target="_blank">fiat currency fractional reserve banking conspiracy</a>. <a title="great credit contraction" href="http://www.creditcontraction.com" target="_blank">The Great Credit Contraction</a> has begun and there is no stopping it.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" style="margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto" src="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/wp-content/plugins/wp-o-matic/cache/410d2_Liquidity-Pyramid.jpg" alt="" width="540" height="497" /></p>
<p>Despite what most people think or feel; the <a title="state is dead" href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGIgOIFdnMQ" target="_blank">State is dead</a>, intellectually, morally, spiritually, financially and economically. Sure, some individuals in certain geographic areas, like North Korea or the United States of America, will face threats of collateral damage as the gigantic rotting corpses tumble to the ground causing great destruction.</p>
<p>But for a sovereign individual in a free market  the management of political risk is just like managing any other risk; weather, contract, counter-party, performance, etc. I devote Chapter Six to Personal Practical Implementation like the five flag theory for managing political risk, geographic diversification and even <a title="second citizenships" href="http://www.billroundsjd.com/practice-areas/2nd-citizenship-and-residency" target="_blank">second passports</a>.</p>
<p><strong>MISH’S MASSIVE MISAPPLICATION</strong></p>
<p>But the regression theorem answers the question on how a medium of exchange can come into existence; it explains the origin of money.</p>
<p>Here Mish makes a critical misapplication of monetary theory. “While theoretically possible, in today’s world silver has one huge drawback that gold does not have: Silver is used up. Gold is not. Silver is widely use in industrial applications”</p>
<p>This is the exact opposite of why the market <strong>has chosen</strong> gold and silver as money. The theory is already being applied. The reason gold is money and currency, a medium of exchange, is because people first valued gold for its commodity uses because they attached increased value to gold based on its expected purchasing power and the reason they were willing to hold cash balances in gold.</p>
<p>Under the theory of market determined money astute traders in a barter environment settle on a particular commodity or commodities that are currently trading in the marketplace as money because of their increased degree of <em>saleableness</em>, <em>saleability</em>, <em>liquidity</em> or <em>marketability</em>.</p>
<p><strong>SILVER PRICE IMPLICATIONS</strong></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" style="margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto" src="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/wp-content/plugins/wp-o-matic/cache/45803_spot-silver-price-200-day-moving-average-520w.png" alt="" width="520" height="260" />But silver is also valued for its industrial applications. The market searches for a cash balance medium with the lowest transaction and storage costs. As the <a title="silver price" href="http://www.runtogold.com/metal-prices/silver-price-and-silver-prices/" target="_blank">silver price</a> discovery occurs there are two large demand drivers: (1) industrial and (2) monetary.</p>
<p>In this case, silver is widely used in industrial applications. Many of these are essential for the current standard of living for humanity such as medical, automation, high tech and etc. while small amounts of silver are actually used in each application so this results in the inelasticity of demand being fairly low.</p>
<p>Additionally, because silver is valued for these reasons and is fungible, divisible, scarce, non-corrosive, portable and definable. A problem is the high ratio of about 50 ounces of silver per ounce of gold. Along with the lower density there is an increase in storage costs of silver relative to gold.</p>
<p>Taken in totality these properties make silver extremely efficient economically to be used as a medium of exchange.</p>
<p>As <a title="great credit contraction" href="http://www.creditcontraction.com" target="_blank">The Great Credit Contraction</a> continues holders of capital will continue seeking safety and liquidity. As the monetary demand for silver increases then industrial and consumer prices will likewise have to increase or firms will face bankruptcy because they cannot sell for less than their costs and remain profitable. This can be particularly helpful in figuring out the implications between <a title="inflation or deflation" href="http://www.runtogold.com/2009/07/inflation-with-gary-north-or-deflation-with-mish/" target="_blank">inflation or deflation</a>.</p>
<p>But these individual preferences expressed through human and being revealed through the silver price does not constitute evidence of silver being overvalued as FOFOA asserts. That assertion rests on there being a proper valuation for silver. A proper valuation set by whom, the State? Chartalist! Plus, I would love for FOFOA to explain what types of industrial applications a digital entry in a computer database has.</p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<div><strong>Applying monetary science to Internet technology is not a simple task.</strong></div>
<p><strong>CURRENCY EVOLUTIONS</strong></p>
<p>Being able to predict future market innovations from entrepreneurs is the work of often wrong science fiction authors. Could anyone predict a Ferrari in 1880? No, they thought about ‘horseless carriages’. Could anyone have predicted the Internet fifty years ago? Fifteen years ago Google did not exist. YouTube and Facebook are barely over five years old.</p>
<p>The fiat currency fractional reserve banking system that has evolved out of a five hundred year old money substitute system is fundamentally unstable and <strong>everyone knows it</strong>. The lifeblood of the State is dead and decaying through <a title="failing quantitative easing" href="http://www.runtogold.com/2009/03/federal-reserve-will-fail-with-quantitative-easing/" target="_blank">failing quantitative easing</a>. The 2008 financial crisis shook the financial community and worldwide population to the core. The search for a viable replacement is on like Donkey Kong.</p>
<p>Applying monetary science to Internet technology is not a simple task. The first ‘horseless carriages’, like <a title="goldmoney" href="http://www.runtogold.com/goldmoney" target="_blank">GoldMoney</a>, have begun to develop. Remember, what the telegraph company and IBM told Alexander Graham Bell and Bill Gates. GoldMoney allows gold, silver, platinum and palladium to circulate as currency in ordinary daily transactions while immunizing the holder of capital from both counter-party risk and <em>illusion</em> risk, the risk that the illusion currency unit will become worthless because of loss of confidence by market participants (hyperinflation).</p>
<p><strong>CONCLUSION</strong></p>
<p>Just like it is logically inconsistent for the grandson to also be the great grandfather so likewise it is logically consistent for gold or silver to be money only because the FRN$ currently has purchasing power. The only reason the FRN$ has purchasing power is because when you apply the regression theorem it reveals that silver and gold were valued as commodities in the state of barter as a result of sovereign individuals making choices based on human action.</p>
<p>Therefore, it follows that gold cannot be debt and is obviously a form of currency that is no-one’s liability. Sure, a money substitute like a gold certificate is debt but a money substitute is not money anymore than the <a title="gld etf" href="http://www.runtogold.com/2008/12/a-problem-with-gld-and-slv-etfs/" target="_blank">GLD ETF</a> is gold just like a FRN$ is not a US$ and <a title="dollar is defined as" href="http://www.runtogold.com/2009/05/define-the-dollar-or-else/" target="_blank">a dollar is defined as</a> 371.25 grains of fine silver. Silver and gold already possess <em>currency</em> market share though far inferior to the FRN$, Yen or Euro.</p>
<p>Evolutions in currency like the FRN$, credit cards, <a title="goldmoney" href="http://www.runtogold.com/goldmoney" target="_blank">GoldMoney</a>, frequent flyer points, gift cards, Yen, <a title="bitcoin" href="http://www.bitcoin.org/" target="_blank">bitcoin</a>, etc. will continue and hasten as we further transition to the Information Age. To stimulate innovation and increase the standard of living through a more efficient currency market we should support Dr. Ron Paul’s <a title="H.R. 4248 Free Competition In Currency Act" href="http://www.runtogold.com/2010/02/hr-4248-free-competition-in-currency-act-of-2009/" target="_blank">H.R. 4248 – Free Competititon In Currency Act of 2009</a>.</p>
<p><a title="internet process" href="http://www.runtogold.com/2009/10/relentless-advance-of-technology/" target="_blank">The Internet is a relentless process of decentralization</a> and like a rising sun the inefficiencies in the worldwide free market are being dispelled with the collapse of massive currencies like the <a title="broken euro" href="http://www.runtogold.com/2010/04/euro-gold-and-the-euro-zone/" target="_blank">broken Euro</a> or FRN$ which speaks to the currency market opportunity for entrepreneurs. There will no more be one currency to settle them all than there will be one world government to rule them all.</p>
<p><strong>DISCLOSURES</strong>: Long physical gold, silver and platinum.</p>
<span class="sfforumlink"><a href="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/forum/monetary-policy/the-regression-theorem-understood-and-applied"><img src="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/wp-content/plugins/simple-forum/styles/icons/default/bloglink.png" alt="" /> Join the forum discussion on this post</a> - (1) Posts</span>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>What&#8217;s A Trillion Dollars?</title>
		<link>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2009/11/12/whats-a-trillion-dollars/</link>
		<comments>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2009/11/12/whats-a-trillion-dollars/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:00:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan McLaughlin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Politics and Government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bailout]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[millionaire]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[money]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trillion dollars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[washington politicians]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/?p=2342</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>What’s A Trillion Dollars?</p> <p>Economists are anticipating that the federal budget deficits will be in the trillions of dollars for a number of years. There are estimates that, with all federal efforts combined, the bailout and stimulus packages will be upwards of $7 trillion. I wonder if politicians who are so cavalier about using <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2009/11/12/whats-a-trillion-dollars/">What&#8217;s A Trillion Dollars?</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What’s A Trillion Dollars?</p>
<p>Economists are anticipating that the federal budget deficits will be in the trillions of dollars for a number of years.  There are estimates that, with all federal efforts combined, the bailout and stimulus packages will be upwards of $7 trillion.  I wonder if politicians who are so cavalier about using taxpayer money actually know how much a trillion dollars really is.</p>
<p>According to the Bureau of Engraving, a dollar bill is .0043 inches thick.  That means that a stack of 100 new dollar bills would be .43 inches tall.  A thousand is 4.3 inches.  A million is a thousand thousands, so a million dollars is 4,300 inches.  Converted to feet, that is about 358 feet high.  A trillion is a million millions, so a trillion dollars would be a stack of money 358 million feet tall. If you convert that to miles, the dollar stack would stand 67,866 MILES high!  It would wrap around the equator more than two times.</p>
<p>For another perspective, I saw an ad in the paper just this morning, offering bread for $1.99 per loaf.  A loaf is 4 inches tall, so one dollar will buy a 2 inch tall loaf of bread.  If, instead of using .0043 inches, the thickness of a dollar bill, we substitute 2 inches, the thickness of a loaf of bread that 1 dollar will buy, we get a much more dramatic view.  A stack of bread that $1 trillion can buy would reach up more than 31 million miles.  Given the price of $2 per loaf, that would be 500 billion loaves of bread.</p>
<p>Considering that there are roughly 300 million people in the United States, that is enough bread to give about1600 loaves to every man, woman and child in America.  It is enough to give each of the 6.5 billion people in the world 77 loaves apiece.  Our politicians certainly don’t buy loaves of bread with the money.  So where does it go?  Where does it come from?</p>
<p>The answer to the second question is that it comes from out of thin air.  Modern money is the creation of the monetary authorities, in the case of America, the Federal Reserve and fractional reserve inflationary credit.  Money is only as valuable as the goods it can be used to buy.  Wealth and prosperity only come from production and never, under any circumstances, from money created by a central bank.  When more money is made from nothing, with no increase in production, the primary effect is to increase prices.  More dollars in the system changes the ratio of dollars to goods, and prices have to rise.</p>
<p>Prices should be decreasing significantly at this point in the downturn, lowering the cost of living for everyone, making everything easier to buy.  They are, however, being propped up by your government.  They are also establishing the next big wave of the cycle, and the choice in the near future will be runaway inflation or excruciatingly high interest rates.</p>
<p>Not too many years ago, the outrage was over politicians’ callousness when dealing in terms of billions.  Billions lead to trillions, which lead to tens of trillions, then hundreds of trillions.  Zimbabwe has put it in high gear with an inflation rate of over 1 million percent per year.    Their government destroyed their monetary system and economy by making lots of money out of thin air.</p>
<p>We may never get to the point where we have a million percent inflation rate, but if we don’t start holding our elected officials accountable, they will destroy our economy, even more so than they have so far.  From the ridiculous and irresponsible things that they keep doing, that destruction actually seems to be their goal.</p>
<p>The first question above, where does all the money go, is a very good one.  It’s all a deep, dark secret.  In spite of the rhetoric about transparency, you won’t really see where most of it goes.  I’m sure that bailout millionaires will be grateful for your contribution to their investment fund.</p>
<p>A trillion dollars is an incredible sum of money.  Incredible sums invite incredible abuse.  Maybe something good will come of this whole mess.  Just maybe, the people of this country will finally see through the scam that both Republicans and Democrats in congress have been perpetrating for decades.  Maybe we will start to see some real change in the next few years when hundreds of crooked Washington politicians are kicked out.</p>
<p>Hey, anything’s possible when people use their heads, isn’t it?</p>
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		<title>What Is Money</title>
		<link>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2009/09/08/what-is-money/</link>
		<comments>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2009/09/08/what-is-money/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Sep 2009 11:50:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Trace Mayer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Monetary Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[assets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fiat currency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[money]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[silver]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/?p=1865</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The first section of the first chapter in The Great Credit Contraction addresses the conflicting definitions of money and currency. If one does not have a correct understanding of money and currency then they will have flawed conclusions regarding inflation or deflation. This will lead to inaccuracies when performing mental calculations of value and <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2009/09/08/what-is-money/">What Is Money</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The first section of the first chapter in <a title="credit contraction" href="http://www.greatcreditcontraction.com" target="_blank">The Great Credit Contraction</a> addresses the conflicting definitions of money and currency.  If one does not have a correct understanding of money and currency then they will have flawed conclusions regarding <a title="inflation or deflation" href="http://www.runtogold.com/2009/07/inflation-with-gary-north-or-deflation-with-mish/" target="_blank">inflation or deflation</a>.  This will lead to inaccuracies when performing <a title="value calculation" href="http://www.runtogold.com/2008/08/value-calculation/" target="_blank">mental calculations of value</a> and result in poorly allocated capital.</p>
<p><strong>WHAT IS MONEY</strong></p>
<p>The terms <strong>money</strong>, <strong>money substitutes</strong>, <strong>illusions</strong> and <strong>currency</strong> are often used interchangeably.  Since they do not mean the same thing this misuse can be confusing.  Even many of the leading experts in this subject have difficulty agreeing on definitions.  The conflation of these terms causes great problems in understanding monetary science.  Therefore, we will separate and distinguish each.</p>
<p><strong>EXPERTS DO NOT AGREE</strong></p>
<p><object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="425" height="344" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /><param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/opphgi7tAOs&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1" /><param name="allowfullscreen" value="true" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="344" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/opphgi7tAOs&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed></object></p>
<p><strong>MONEY</strong></p>
<p>Money must have intrinsic value by being a tangible asset.  This is because when A gives B the pizza, the pizza has intrinsic value.  For the transaction to be extinguished, A must receive from B an asset with intrinsic value.  If B exchanges a 1oz. American Silver Eagle $1 coin for the pizza, then at the time of the transaction, a pizza and a silver coin would exchange hands.  <em>Value</em> would be exchanged for value at the time of <em>settlement</em>, and the transaction would be <em>extinguished</em>.</p>
<p><strong>MONEY SUBSTITUTE</strong></p>
<p>A <em>money substitute</em>, on the other hand, is a negotiable instrument that promises the payment of money.  An example would be a silver certificate that reads:  ”This certifies that there have/has been deposited in the Treasury of the United States of America (number) silver dollar(s) payable to the bearer on demand.”</p>
<p>Chartalism, the State theory of money, asserts the government gives money or currency its value.  This theory completely opposes basic economic law.  In reality, the backing of government-issued <em>money substitutes</em> with bullion gives the currency value.</p>
<p>If A exchanged the pizza with B for a silver certificate, then the transaction would be settled but not extinguished until A passed on the silver certificate for value.  While A holds the silver certificate, its value could change and it could become worthless.  This happened on June 24, 1968 when the Treasury of the United States of America declared it would no longer honor redemption of silver certificates.</p>
<p>The use of a money substitute introduces risk to A in the transaction with B because A relinquishes value when he tenders the pizza to B but does not receive an asset with intrinsic value in exchange at settlement.  Instead, A must use the instrument in another transaction to receive value.</p>
<p><strong>ILLUSIONS</strong></p>
<p>An illusion is a negotiable that promises nothing and has no intrinsic value.  It is like a silver certificate that promises the bearer no silver.  It has value only because individuals are willing to bear the payment risk and other risks of the illusion.  The bearer usually tolerates the risks because their cost is lower than the value placed on the utility derived from the service the currency provides to the market participants.</p>
<p><strong>CONCLUSION</strong></p>
<p>In conclusion, currency is primarily used to settle transactions.  When money, such as <a title="buy gold" href="http://how-to-buy-gold-safely.com/" target="_blank">gold</a>, <a title="buy silver" href="http://how-to-buy-silver-safely.com/" target="_blank">silver</a> or <a title="buy platinum" href="http://how-to-buy-platinum-safely.com/" target="_blank">platinum</a>, is used to settle a transaction, then the transaction is extinguished.  However, if either illusions or money substitutes are used, then the transaction is not extinguished and one or more parties to the contract are left to bear the risk of extinguishing the transaction.  This risk often leads to errors in accurately assessing the value and utility from the underlying consideration in determining the price for the transaction.  This is one of the largest risks with using <a title="fiat currency" href="http://www.greatcreditcontraction.com/fiat-currency" target="_self">fiat currency</a>.  As the illusions evaporate during <a title="great credit contraction" href="http://www.creditcontraction.com" target="_blank">The Great Credit Contraction</a>, here is a <a title="great credit contraction discount code" href="http://creditcontraction.com/images/The-Great-Credit-Contraction-Sample.pdf" target="_blank">free sample</a>, it will be real tangible assets the remain and increase in purchasing power.</p>
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		<title>Money, an Essentially Useless Substance?</title>
		<link>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2009/07/06/money-an-essentially-useless-substance/</link>
		<comments>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2009/07/06/money-an-essentially-useless-substance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2009 18:20:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bron Suchecki</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economic Theory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[barter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fiat currency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[money]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trade]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/?p=1478</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Dmitry Orlov recently posted an article titled Definancialisation, Deglobalisation, Relocalisation.</p> <p>For those not familiar with Dmitry, he is the author of Reinventing Collapse, which is all about &#8220;prepar[ing] for life without much money, where imported goods are scarce, and where people have to provide for their own needs, and those of their immediate neighbours.&#8221;</p> <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2009/07/06/money-an-essentially-useless-substance/">Money, an Essentially Useless Substance?</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dmitry Orlov recently posted an article titled <a href="http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2009/06/definancialisation-deglobalisation.html">Definancialisation, Deglobalisation, Relocalisation</a>.</p>
<p>For those not familiar with Dmitry, he is the author of Reinventing Collapse, which is all about <em>&#8220;prepar[ing] for life without much money, where imported goods are scarce, and where people have to provide for their own needs, and those of their immediate neighbours.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>In this article, Dmitry has a go at money and suggests barter can do the job but then suggest this is probably a better solution:</p>
<p><em>One option is to organise as communities to produce certain goods that the entire community wants: food, clothing, shelter, security and entertainment. Everyone makes their contribution, in exchange for the end product, which everyone gets to share. It is also possible to organise to produce goods that can be used in trade with other communities: trade goods. Trade goods are a much better way to store wealth than money, which is, let&#8217;s face it, an essentially useless substance.</em></p>
<p>I can&#8217;t say I share Dmitry&#8217;s belief in this socialist nirvana. The catch for me is “everyone makes their contribution” bit. Anyway, my main beef is with his belief that trade goods are a better way to store wealth and that money is essentially useless. Now I&#8217;m not going to discuss why money is better than barter (either between individuals or “communities” it doesn&#8217;t matter), as I think most people reading this get it. I&#8217;m more interested in why Dmitry would be so negative on money given its obvious efficiency it brings to exchange. The explanation is in this statement later in the article:</p>
<p><em>When we use money, we cede power to those who create money (by creating debt) and who destroy money (by cancelling debt). We also empower the ranks of people whose area of expertise is in the manipulation of arbitrary rules and arithmetic abstractions rather than in engaging directly with the physical world.</em></p>
<p>This has to be one of the best examples of the infiltration of the idea of fiat into society. This guy&#8217;s whole shtick is about radically challenging society yet he can&#8217;t conceive of money as anything but debt, so much so that he proposes returning to barter rather than retaining the benefits of money, but money which is directly engaged with the physical world – gold.</p>
<p>Another example of this misguided thinking is his statement that a lack of money <em>“makes it more difficult to hoard wealth”</em>. Professor Fekete has often debunked this demonisation of hoarding. Dmitry himself is confused on this matter – he thinks it is OK to hoard wealth in the form of trade goods, but not money.</p>
<p>I considered replying to Dmitry&#8217;s article on these matters, but thinking about how brainwashed (I can think of no better word) he is on money, I considered it a futile task. I could see a stereotypical negative perception of gold as some goldbug doom and gloom eccentricity. I see a need to condense Professor Fekete&#8217;s work into an easy (and quick) to understand case for sound money. Another one for the to-do list.</p>
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		<title>Is Money a Message as Well as a Medium?</title>
		<link>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2009/05/04/is-money-a-message-as-well-as-a-medium/</link>
		<comments>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2009/05/04/is-money-a-message-as-well-as-a-medium/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 May 2009 14:20:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Winton Bates</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economic Theory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[exchange of goods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[money]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[psychology]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/?p=1149</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Money is the medium of exchange as well as the unit of account and store of value. As the medium of exchange money makes life easy because we don’t have to spend a lot of time trying to find someone who is prepared to trade the goods we want to buy for the goods <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2009/05/04/is-money-a-message-as-well-as-a-medium/">Is Money a Message as Well as a Medium?</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Money is the medium of exchange as well as the unit of account and store of value. As the medium of exchange money makes life easy because we don’t have to spend a lot of time trying to find someone who is prepared to trade the goods we want to buy for the goods we want to sell. I have never been able to understand what Marshal McLuhan was talking about when he said “the medium is the message”, but the question I want to consider is whether we behave differently when we have money on our minds.</p>
<p>The idea that people may behave differently when they have money on their minds has a long history. Everyone has heard the biblical claim: “the love of money is the root of all evil”. What does this mean? This is not really an assertion that it is evil to collect coins, is it? It seems to me that the statement was not really about money at all but about the love of the worldly goods that money can buy.</p>
<p>The question of whether people behave differently when they have money on their minds also comes up in discussing when it is or is not appropriate to attempt to motivate other people using money. Tyler Cowen, for example, has used several parables to discuss this question, including the dirty dishes parable. Is paying one of your children a good way to ensure that the dishes are washed? Probably not. Children may feel less obligation to do their share of family chores if a voluntary exchange relationship is established in which the parent becomes an employer providing money in exchange for work, rather than a family leader “who is due some amount of obedience in his or her own right” (“Discover your Inner Economist”, p 14).</p>
<p>Is the payment of money intrinsic to this parable? I think that many economists would tend to say that the parable would apply in the same way if the child is paid in kind, e.g. in tickets to rock concerts, rather than in money. In the minds of many economists the issue would appear to be whether strict reciprocity is appropriate to the circumstances rather than about the method of payment that is used. Economists often say that money is a veil.</p>
<p>However, I am not sure that many parents would rule out all forms of bartering as being inappropriate as a means of motivating a child to do his or her share of family chores. It seems to me that bartering could be appropriate if it is about the things that parents do for their children that are beyond what might be generally considered to be the core responsibilities of a parent. For example, like many other parents, while my kids were in their teens I used a substantial part of my leisure time providing an unpaid taxi service to ferry them and their friends to and from various sporting and entertainment activities. Would it be inappropriate for a parent to suggest to a child that it would be unfair to expect provision of such services unless he or she does an appropriate share of family chores without having to be constantly reminded?</p>
<p>This raises the question of whether responses to provision of incentives have more to do with perceptions of the appropriateness of particular incentives than with concepts such as the strictness of reciprocity or the money value of the incentives provided. There is some evidence that actions that merely remind people of money can have a significant effect on behavior. For example, Kathleen Vohs, Nicole Meade and Miranda Goode report an experiment in which participants were primed by sitting at a desk facing posters showing various denominations of currency or posters showing either a seascape or a flower garden. The participants were then presented with a nine-item questionnaire in which each question asked them to choose between two leisure activities – an experience that only one person could enjoy and an experience that two or more people could enjoy together. Participants primed with the money poster tended to chose more individually focused experiences. The authors report similar results for eight other experiments (‘<a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/314/5802/1154">The psychological consequences of money’</a>, Science, 318 (5802), 2006).</p>
<p>So what if responses to incentives are strongly influenced by perceptions of the form in which the incentive is provided and the language used when the offer is made? The most obvious implication is that a lot of care is required in selecting incentives that are perceived to be appropriate and in presenting them in an appropriate way to achieve the desired effect. There are quite different implications in relation to prevention of corruption. The ethics of accepting a bribe do not change merely because the incentive offered is more subtle than a bundle of notes in a brown paper bag.</p>
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		<title>What Is A Trillion Dollars?</title>
		<link>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2009/03/31/what-is-a-trillion-dollars/</link>
		<comments>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2009/03/31/what-is-a-trillion-dollars/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2009 22:00:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dan McLaughlin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Monetary Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics and Government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[crooked politicians]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[federal deficit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hyperinflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[money]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trillion dollars]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/?p=1024</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[According to the Bureau of Engraving, a dollar bill is .0043 inches thick. A stack of a trillion dollar bills would reach up 358 million feet, or 67,866 miles. <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2009/03/31/what-is-a-trillion-dollars/">What Is A Trillion Dollars?</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="Times New Roman;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="Times New Roman;">Economists are anticipating that the federal budget deficit will be in the trillions of dollars this year.<span style="yes;"> </span>There are estimates that, with all federal efforts combined, the bailout and stimulus packages will be upwards of $7 trillion.<span style="yes;"> </span>I wonder if politicians who are so cavalier about using taxpayer money actually know how much a trillion dollars really is. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="Times New Roman;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="Times New Roman;">According to the Bureau of Engraving, a dollar bill is .0043 inches thick.<span style="yes;"> </span>That means that a stack of 100 new dollar bills would be .43 inches tall.<span style="yes;"> </span>A thousand is 4.3 inches.<span style="yes;"> </span>A million is a thousand thousands, so a million dollars is 4,300 inches.<span style="yes;"> </span>Converted to feet, that is about 358 feet high.<span style="yes;"> </span>A trillion is a million millions, so a trillion dollars would be a stack of money 358 million feet tall. If you convert that to miles, the dollar stack would stand 67,866 MILES high!<span style="yes;"> </span>It would wrap around the equator more than two times.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="Times New Roman;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="small;"><span style="Times New Roman;">For another perspective, I saw an ad in the paper just this morning, offering bread for $1.99 per loaf.<span style="yes;"> </span>A loaf is 4 inches tall, so one dollar will buy a 2 inch tall loaf of bread.<span style="yes;"> </span>If, instead of using .0043 inches, the thickness of a dollar bill, we substitute 2 inches, the thickness of a loaf of bread that 1 dollar will buy, we get a much more dramatic view.<span style="yes;"> </span>A stack of bread that $1 trillion can buy would reach up more than 31 million miles.<span style="yes;"> </span>Given the price of $2 per loaf, that would be 500 billion loaves of bread.<span style="yes;"> </span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="Times New Roman;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="Times New Roman;">Considering that there are roughly 300 million people in the United States, that is enough bread to give about1600 loaves to every man, woman and child in America.<span style="yes;"> </span>It is enough to give each of the 6.5 billion people in the world 77 loaves apiece.<span style="yes;"> </span>Our politicians certainly don’t buy loaves of bread with the money.<span style="yes;"> </span>So where does it go?<span style="yes;"> </span>Where does it come from?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="Times New Roman;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="small;"><span style="Times New Roman;">The answer to the second question is that it comes from out of thin air.<span style="yes;"> </span>Modern money is the creation of the monetary authorities, in the case of America, the Federal Reserve and fractional reserve inflationary credit.<span style="yes;"> </span>Money is only as valuable as the goods it can be used to buy.<span style="yes;"> </span>Wealth and prosperity only come from production and never, under any circumstances, from money created by a central bank.<span style="yes;"> </span>When more money is made from nothing, with no increase in production, the primary effect is to increase prices.<span style="yes;"> </span>More dollars in the system changes the ratio of dollars to goods, and prices have to rise.<span style="yes;"> </span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="Times New Roman;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="Times New Roman;">Prices should be decreasing significantly at this point in the downturn, lowering the cost of living for everyone, making everything easier to buy.<span style="yes;"> </span>They are, however, being propped up by your government.<span style="yes;"> </span>They are also establishing the next big wave of the cycle, and the choice in the near future will be runaway inflation or excruciatingly high interest rates.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="Times New Roman;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="Times New Roman;">Not too many years ago, the outrage was over politicians’ callousness when dealing in terms of billions.<span style="yes;"> </span>Billions lead to trillions, which lead to tens of trillions, then hundreds of trillions.<span style="yes;"> </span>Zimbabwe has put it in high gear with an inflation rate of over 1 million percent per year.<span style="yes;"> </span>Their government destroyed their monetary system and economy by making lots of money out of thin air.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="Times New Roman;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="Times New Roman;">We may never get to the point where we have a million percent inflation rate, but if we don’t start holding our elected officials accountable, they will destroy our economy, even more so than they have so far.<span style="yes;"> </span>From the ridiculous and irresponsible things that they keep doing, that destruction actually seems to be their goal.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="Times New Roman;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="small;"><span style="Times New Roman;">The first question above, where does all the money go, is a very good one.<span style="yes;"> </span>It’s all a deep, dark secret.<span style="yes;"> </span>In spite of the rhetoric about transparency, you won’t really see where most of it goes.<span style="yes;"> </span>I’m sure that bailout millionaires will be grateful for your contribution to their investment fund.<span style="yes;"> </span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="Times New Roman;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="small;"><span style="Times New Roman;">A trillion dollars is an incredible sum of money.<span style="yes;"> </span>Incredible sums invite incredible abuse.<span style="yes;"> </span>Maybe something good will come of this whole mess.<span style="yes;"> </span>Just maybe, the people of this country will finally see through the scam that both Republicans and Democrats in congress have been perpetrating for decades.<span style="yes;"> </span>Maybe we will start to see some real change in the next few years when hundreds of crooked Washington politicians are kicked out.<span style="yes;"> </span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="Times New Roman;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="Times New Roman;">Hey, anything’s possible when people use their heads, isn’t it?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="Times New Roman;"> </span></p>
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