By Eldon Mast, on November 9th, 2009
Now that the US recovery is in full swing, many continue to asked “when will this newfound economic growth produce new jobs?”
This past week all eyes were on job numbers. And there were some encouraging signs.
First, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. announced on Wednesday that planned layoffs at U.S. firms fell for a third straight month in October to a 19-month low. Announced job cut rates are now at levels that are below average.
Then on Thursday Monster’s employment index was reported to rise an additional point in October to 120 indicating an ongoing improvement in job demand. The Monster Employment Index is a comprehensive monthly analysis of U.S. online job demand.
And finally, initial jobless claims are clearly on the decline, down 20,000 in the Oct. 31 week to 512,000 (prior week revised 2,000 higher to 532,000). The four-week average is down for the ninth straight week, 3,000 lower at 523,750 for a 25,000 decrease from late September.
So just when will this strong recovery start producing new jobs?
The answer is likely found in the significant decline in the number of jobs lost since March. As can be seen from the linear trending in the chart below, if the current economic climate stays intact, it is quite likely that we will actually see job growth starting sometime in December.
By Eldon Mast, on November 5th, 2009
Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. announced on Wednesday that planned layoffs at U.S. firms fell for a third straight month in October to a 19-month low.
As we’ve noted the labor market is continuing to improve as US economic activity rebounds.
Planned job cuts announced by U.S. employers fell to 55,679 in October, down 16 percent from 66,404 in September.
The October job cuts represent the lowest level since March 2008, and are now at or below levels that were normally seen throughout all of 2006 and 2007.
In fact at a 55,679 monthly rate, the cuts are now well below the monthly average cuts for the last three years.
The Challenger report is one more indication that a return to US job growth is just around the corner.
By Eldon Mast, on October 23rd, 2009
Data release Thursday shows seven straight weeks of decline in the four-week moving average of initial claims for unemployment. The moving average is widely seen as the best gauge of underlying initial claims trending.
Additionally, the number of people collecting long-term unemployment benefits in the week ended October 10 dropped to the lowest since March. This measure has also trended lower for five straight weeks.
These two are clear signs that unemployment is close to peaking and that the October employment report will likely show improvement over Septembers report.
The insured unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of the insured labor force that is jobless, also edged down to 4.5 percent in the week ended October 10 from 4.6 percent the prior week.
Another hopeful sign was that the number of mass layoffs, defined as job cuts involving at least 50 people from a single employer, fell by 129 to 2,561 last month.
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