By B.P.T., on August 11th, 2011
At 8:30 AM EDT, the International Trade report for June will be released. The consensus is a deficit of $48.0 billion, which would be $2.2 billion less than the previous month.
Also at 8:30 AM EDT, the U.S. government will release its weekly Jobless Claims report. The consensus is that there were 405,000 new jobless claims last week, which would would be 5,000 more than the previous week.
Also at 9:45 AM EDT, the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index will be released, providing an update on Americans’ views of the U.S. economy, their personal finances and the buying climate.
At 10:30 AM EDT, the weekly Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Report will be released, giving an update on natural gas inventories in the United States.
At 4:30 PM EDT, the Federal Reserve will release its Money Supply report, showing the amount of liquidity available in the U.S. economy.
Also at 4:30 PM EDT, the Federal Reserve will release its Balance Sheet report, showing the amount of liquidity the Fed has injected into the economy by adding or removing reserves.
By B.P.T., on July 12th, 2011
At 7:30 AM EDT, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May will be released, providing information regarding the health and confidence of small businesses in the United States.
At 7:45 AM EDT, the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales report will be released, giving an update on the health of the consumer through this analysis of retail sales.
At 8:30 AM EDT, the International Trade report for May will be released. The consensus is a deficit of $42.7 billion, which would be $1.0 billion less than the previous month.
At 8:55 AM EDT, the weekly Redbook report will be released, giving us more information about consumer spending.
At 2:00 PM EDT, the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released, which will provide insight into how the Federal Reserve board governors and bank presidents view the economy.
By Simon Grey, on June 15th, 2011
Vox has recently leveled his formidable intellectual barrels at free trade (see here, here, and here). The conclusion that he has reached has been that free trade has had negative effects on the American economy for the past several years, and that the Ricardian theory upon which the defense of free trade rests is largely bunk. He is correct in both these assessments. However, there are a few things that need to be clarified. First, the macroeconomic approach to free trade is different from the microeconomic approach. Vox’s argument rests on determining the ratio of imports to exports, which is the mainstream view. The microeconomic approach is to simply acknowledge that there is an exchange takes place, usually of currency for a good or service. The exchange is considered to be equivalent, in that the two parties consider that which is traded to be of at least equal value to what is being received in exchange. Thus, trade is always in a state of balance. It should be noted that the microeconomic view of trade balance is a tautology.
In the second case, Vox’s argument is based on macroeconomic reality, not microeconomic theory. The reality of American trade is that we are running what is defined to be a trade deficit, due in no small part to being willing to import cheap goods into the country. This has, in turn, shifted manufacturing jobs overseas. This is a matter of fact. Furthermore, Vox would be correct in recommending a tariff or a quota system as a way to remedy the trade deficit.
Third, it should be noted that it is economically foolish to pursue international free trade while maintaining a high degree of domestic market interventionism. If the government is going to mandate, say, a minimum wage for all workers, then domestic workers are legally prohibited from competing with foreign labor on price, to a limited extent. Having partial market freedom is just as distortive as complete market intervention. As such, it is entirely reasonable to hold all producers to the same production standards, whether said producers happen to be foreign or domestic. Karl Denninger, for one, has recommended wage and environmental parity tariffs, which are the entirely logical response to domestic market interventionism. Quite simply, it is utterly asinine to support free international trade without also supporting free domestic trade. And it is even more foolish to show stronger support for foreign trade than domestic trade, especially if the one showing support is the government.
Fourth, it should be noted that “free trade” is a bit of a misnomer. “Foreign trade” would be a more accurate description, for most of what passes for free trade today is actually governmental interference. One of the most famous examples of “free trade” of the last two decades, the North American Free Trade Agreement, begs the question: if this is really free trade, why are the governments in three different countries involved? Tautologically, free trade needs no governmental interference, regulation, or oversight. In fact, it only requires that the government get out of the way. Getting out of the way does not require prolonged discussion with foreign governments.
Professor Hale objected to Vox’s claims, saying essentially that people should be free to trade with whomever they want. I agree with this assertion as well. However, there are a few things that need pointed out here as well.
First, using microeconomic theory to argue macroeconomic policy can be troublesome, especially if one does not account for the relevant alternative variables. I cannot tell if this is the case with Professor Hale, mostly because I have only been reading his blog for a rather short amount of time. I assume that he supports a free domestic market as well. I will simply say, then, that if one is going to support free foreign trade than one must first support free domestic trade.
It should also be noted that most online arguments do not easily lend themselves to hyper-qualified, highly nuanced arguments. Trying to explain how one’s foreign trade prescriptions are identical to one’s domestic trade prescriptions takes time, and doesn’t always strike directly to the heart of the matter. In Professor Hale’s case, it appears that he supports market freedom both internationally and domestic. Unfortunately, given the nature of online debate, his defense of freedom comes across as supporting international trade.
At any rate, these are my thoughts, thus far, on international trade. I’ve addressed this subject before, but since the debate seems to be breaking out again, I decided to revisit it. One other thing that I think is worth mentioning is that ideals should be given their proper place. In this case, freedom and prosperity are the ideals. These ideals should neither be ignored nor used as a substitute for reality. Instead, they should be principles by which one makes policies in light of the current reality.
By B.P.T., on June 9th, 2011
At 8:30 AM EDT, the U.S. government will release its weekly Jobless Claims report. The consensus is that there were 418 ,000 new jobless claims last week, which would would be 4,000 less than the previous week.
Also at 8:30 AM EDT, the International Trade report for April will be released. The consensus is a deficit of $49.0 billion, which would be $0.8 billion larger than the previous month.
At 9:45 AM EDT, the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index will be released, providing an update on Americans’ views of the U.S. economy, their personal finances and the buying climate.
At 10:00 AM EDT, the Wholesale Trade report will be released for April, showing inventory levels for wholesalers in the United States.
At 10:30 AM EDT, the weekly Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Report will be released, giving an update on natural gas inventories in the United States.
At 11:00 AM EDT, the weekly Energy Information Administration Petroleum Status Report will be released, giving investors an update on oil inventories in the United States.
At 4:30 PM EDT, the Federal Reserve will release its Money Supply report, showing the amount of liquidity available in the U.S. economy.
Also at 4:30 PM EDT, the Federal Reserve will release its Balance Sheet report, showing the amount of liquidity the Fed has injected into the economy by adding or removing reserves.
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By B.P.T., on May 11th, 2011
The Mortgage Bankers’ Association purchase index was released at 7:00 AM EDT, and there was a week to week increase of 6.7% in the Purchase Index and a week to week increase of 9.0% in the Refinance Index.
At 8:30 AM EDT, the International Trade report for March will be released. The consensus is a deficit of $47.7 billion, which would be $1.9 billion larger than the previous month.
At 10:30 AM EDT, the weekly Energy Information Administration Petroleum Status Report will be released, giving investors an update on oil inventories in the United States.
At 2:00 PM EDT, the Treasury budget for April will be released. The consensus is a deficit of $65 billion, which is smaller than the historical average, and about $17.7 billion less than last April.
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By Winton Bates, on May 9th, 2011
‘Again, trade is a social act. Whoever undertakes to sell any description of goods to the public, does what affects the interests of other persons, and of society in general; and thus his conduct, in principle, comes within the jurisdiction of society’ … . The ‘so-called doctrine of Free Trade … rests on grounds different from, though equally solid with, the principle of liberty … . Restrictions on trade, or on production for purposes of trade, are indeed restraints; and all restraints qua restraint, is an evil: but the restraints in question affect only that part of conduct which society is competent to restrain, and are wrong solely because they do not really produce the results which it is desired to produce by them.’ J S Mill, ‘On Liberty’, 1859, Ch. 5
  This passage has puzzled me since I was a young man. It seems to me that individual liberty is obviously violated when governments intervene in trade. If a government imposes a tax on a good for the purposes of assisting the producers of a close substitute, this must be just as much an infringement of the liberty of consumers as when it imposes a sin tax on a good to discourage consumers from purchasing that good. However, it is now clearer to me what Mill was trying to say. The first key to the puzzle is that Mill refers to ‘the principle of individual liberty’ rather than just ‘individual liberty’. What Mill means by the principle of individual liberty is explained a couple of paragraphs earlier as the maxim ‘that the individual is not accountable to society for his actions, in so far as these concern the interests of no person but himself’. According to that view, the individual should be accountable to society for ‘actions that are prejudicial to the interests of others’.
  Friedrich Hayek and others have noted that the distinction that Mill sought to make between actions that affect the acting person and actions that affect others is not very useful because there is hardly any action that may not conceivably affect others in some way. According to Hayek the relevant issue is whether it is reasonable for the affected persons to expect legal protection from the action concerned (‘Constitution of Liberty’, 1960, p 145).
Now, in the paragraph immediately prior to his discussion of international trade, Mill acknowledges that damage to the interests of others does not necessarily justify the interference of society. In this context he discussed the views of society toward various forms of contest in which people who succeed benefit ‘from the loss of others’. He notes: ‘society admits no right, either legal or moral, in the disappointed competitors to immunity from this kind of suffering’.
The second key to the puzzle is that in the passage quoted above Mill suggests that all restraints are evil. If Mill is referring to coercion, as seems likely, then it seems to me that at this point he is close to recognizing the merits of the definition of liberty that Hayek later adopted. Hayek defined liberty as ‘a state in which coercion of some by others is reduced as much as possible in society’ (‘Constitution of Liberty’, p 11). This definition meets Mill’s desire to acknowledge that restraints are necessary to protect citizens from force and fraud, and may be appropriate under some other circumstances where individual conduct adversely affects the interests of others.
Mill seems to have been attempting to establish that the attitude of society toward individual conduct should depend on where it lies on a spectrum. At one end of the spectrum, where conduct affects only the individual actor, other people have no right to intervene. At the other end, force and fraud should obviously be illegal. At other points on the spectrum the effects of individual conduct on the welfare of society are ‘open to discussion’. (Mill uses these words are used in the introductory paragraphs of Ch. IV.)
In asserting that the ‘doctrine’ of free trade rests on equally solid ground to ‘the principle of liberty’ Mill is clearly implying that in our discussion of trade there should be a strong presumption that free trade enhances the general welfare of society. It follows that he must believe that government intervention in trade is generally an unwarranted form of coercion. That seems to me to be just another way of saying that such intervention is generally an unwarranted interference with individual liberty.
By B.P.T., on April 12th, 2011
At 7:45 AM EDT, the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales report will be released, giving an update on the health of the consumer through this analysis of retail sales.
At 8:30 AM EDT, the Import and Export Prices index for March will be released, providing some data that can be used to monitor the threat of inflation.
Also at 8:30 AM EDT, the International Trade report for February will be released. The consensus is a deficit of $44.0 billion, which would be $2.3 billion less than the previous month.
At 8:55 AM EDT, the weekly Redbook report will be released, giving us more information about consumer spending.
At 2:00 PM EDT, the Treasury budget for March will be released. The consensus is a deficit of $189 billion, which is much larger than the historical average, and about $123.6 billion more than last March.
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By B.P.T., on February 11th, 2011
At 8:30 AM EST, the International Trade report for December will be released. The consensus is a deficit of $40.5 billion, which would be $2.2 billion more than November.
At 9:55 AM EST, Consumer Sentiment for the first half of February will be announced. The consensus is that the index will be at 75, which would be an improvement of 0.8 points from the level reported in the second half of last month.
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By B.P.T., on January 13th, 2011
At 8:30 AM EST, the U.S. government will release its weekly Jobless Claims report. The consensus is that there were 405,000 new jobless claims last week, which would would be 4,000 less than the number released last week.
Also at 8:30 AM EST, the International Trade report for November will be released. The consensus is a deficit of $41 billion, which would be $2.3 billion less than October.
Also at 8:30 AM EDT, the Producer Price Index for December will be released. The consensus is that the index increased 0.9% over last month, and increased 0.2% when food and energy are excluded.
At 10:30 AM EST, the weekly Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Report will be released, giving an update on natural gas inventories in the United States.
At 1:00 PM EST, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will participate on a panel discussing small business lending.
At 4:30 PM EST, the Federal Reserve will release its Money Supply report, showing the amount of liquidity available in the U.S. economy.
Also at 4:30 PM EST, the Federal Reserve will release its Balance Sheet report, showing the amount of liquidity the Fed has injected into the economy by adding or removing reserves.
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By B.P.T., on December 10th, 2010
At 8:30 AM EST, the Import and Export Prices index for November will be released, providing some data that can be used to monitor the threat of inflation.
Also at 8:30 AM EST, the International Trade report for October will be released. The consensus is a deficit of $44 billion, which would be the same level as September.
At 9:55 AM EST, Consumer Sentiment for the first half of December will be announced. The consensus is that the index will be at 72, which would be an improvement of 0.4 points from the level reported in the second half of last month.
At 2:00 PM EST, the Treasury budget for November will be released. The consensus is a deficit of $140 billion, which is much larger than the historical average, and about $20 billion more than last November.
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