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Economic Events on February 10, 2012

B.P.T. — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 12:45:17 +0000

At 8:30 AM Eastern time, the International Trade report for December will be released. The consensus is a deficit of $47.8 billion, which would be the same value as the previous month.

At 9:55 AM Eastern time, Consumer Sentiment for the first half of February will be announced. The consensus is that the index will be at 74.3, which would be a decrease of 0.7 points from the level reported in the second half of last month.

At 12:30 PM Eastern time, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak to the 2012 National Association of Homebuilders International Builders’ Show on the topic of Housing Markets In Transition.

At 2:00 PM Eastern time, the Treasury budget for January will be released, providing an account of the federal government’s budget surplus or deficit for that month.

Economic Events on January 13, 2012

B.P.T. — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 12:45:09 +0000

At 8:30 AM Eastern time, the International Trade report for November will be released. The consensus is a deficit of $45.0 billion, which would be $1.5 billion more than the previous month.

Also at 8:30 AM Eastern time, the Import and Export Prices index for December will be released, providing some data that can be used to monitor the threat of inflation.

At 9:55 AM Eastern time, Consumer Sentiment for the first half of January will be announced. The consensus is that the index will be at 71.5, which would be an increase of 1.6 points from the level reported in the second half of last month.

Economic Events on December 9, 2011

B.P.T. — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 12:45:10 +0000

At 8:30 AM Eastern time, the International Trade report for October will be released. The consensus is a deficit of $43.4 billion, which would be $0.3 billion more than the previous month.

At 9:55 AM Eastern time, Consumer Sentiment for the first half of December will be announced. The consensus is that the index . . . → Read More: Economic Events on December 9, 2011

Economic Events on November 10, 2011

B.P.T. — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 12:40:09 +0000

At 8:30 AM Eastern time, the U.S. government will release its weekly Jobless Claims report. The consensus is that there were 400,000 new jobless claims last week, which would would be 3,000 more than the previous week.

Also at 8:30 AM Eastern time, the International Trade report for September will be released. The consensus is a deficit of $46.3 billion, which would be $0.7 billion more than the previous month.

Also at 8:30 AM Eastern time, the Import and Export Prices index for October will be released, providing some data that can be used to monitor the threat of inflation.

At 9:45 AM Eastern time, the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index will be released, providing an update on Americans’ views of the U.S. economy, their personal finances and the buying climate.

At 10:30 AM Eastern time, the weekly Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Report will be released, giving an update on natural gas inventories in the United States.

At 2:00 PM Eastern time, the Treasury budget for October will be released, providing an account of the federal government’s budget surplus or deficit for that month.

At 4:30 PM Eastern time, the Federal Reserve will release its Money Supply report, showing the amount of liquidity available in the U.S. economy.

Also at 4:30 PM Eastern time, the Federal Reserve will release its Balance Sheet report, showing the amount of liquidity the Fed has injected into the economy by adding or removing reserves.

Economic Events on October 13, 2011

B.P.T. — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 11:40:02 +0000

At 8:30 AM EDT, the U.S. government will release its weekly Jobless Claims report. The consensus is that there were 405,000 new jobless claims last week, which would would be 4,000 more than the previous week.

Also at 8:30 AM EDT, the International Trade report for August will be released. The consensus is a deficit of $46 billion, which would be $1.2 billion more than the previous month.

At 9:45 AM EDT, the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index will be released, providing an update on Americans’ views of the U.S. economy, their personal finances and the buying climate.

At 10:30 AM EDT, the weekly Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Report will be released, giving an update on natural gas inventories in the United States.

At 11:00 AM EDT, the weekly Energy Information Administration Petroleum Status Report will be released, giving investors an update on oil inventories in the United States.

At 4:30 PM EDT, the Federal Reserve will release its Money Supply report, showing the amount of liquidity available in the U.S. economy.

Also at 4:30 PM EDT, the Federal Reserve will release its Balance Sheet report, showing the amount of liquidity the Fed has injected into the economy by adding or removing reserves.

Economic Events on September 8, 2011

B.P.T. — Thu, 08 Sep 2011 11:30:04 +0000

At 8:30 AM EDT, the U.S. government will release its weekly Jobless Claims report. The consensus is that there were 408,000 new jobless claims last week, which would would be 1,000 less than the previous week.

Also at 8:30 AM EDT, the International Trade report for July will be released. The consensus is a deficit of $51.9 billion, which would be $1.2 billion less than the previous month.

At 9:45 AM EDT, the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index will be released, providing an update on Americans’ views of the U.S. economy, their personal finances and the buying climate.

At 10:00 AM EDT, the Quarterly Services Survey will be released, showing the status of the information and technology-related service industries.

At 10:30 AM EDT, the weekly Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Report will be released, giving an update on natural gas inventories in the United States.

At 11:00 AM EDT, the weekly Energy Information Administration Petroleum Status Report will be released, giving investors an update on oil inventories in the United States.

At 1:00 PM EDT, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at the Minnesota Economic Club in Minneapolis.

At 3:00 PM EDT, the Consumer Credit report for July will be released. The consensus estimate is that there will be an increase of $6.0 billion in the consumer credit available from June to July, after an increase of $15.5 billion last month.

At 4:30 PM EDT, the Federal Reserve will release its Money Supply report, showing the amount of liquidity available in the U.S. economy.

Also at 4:30 PM EDT, the Federal Reserve will release its Balance Sheet report, showing the amount of liquidity the Fed has injected into the economy by adding or removing reserves.

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Economic Events on August 11, 2011

B.P.T. — Thu, 11 Aug 2011 11:10:02 +0000

At 8:30 AM EDT, the International Trade report for June will be released. The consensus is a deficit of $48.0 billion, which would be $2.2 billion less than the previous month.

Also at 8:30 AM EDT, the U.S. government will release its weekly Jobless Claims report. The consensus is that there were 405,000 new jobless claims last week, which would would be 5,000 more than the previous week.

Also at 9:45 AM EDT, the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index will be released, providing an update on Americans’ views of the U.S. economy, their personal finances and the buying climate.

At 10:30 AM EDT, the weekly Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Report will be released, giving an update on natural gas inventories in the United States.

At 4:30 PM EDT, the Federal Reserve will release its Money Supply report, showing the amount of liquidity available in the U.S. economy.

Also at 4:30 PM EDT, the Federal Reserve will release its Balance Sheet report, showing the amount of liquidity the Fed has injected into the economy by adding or removing reserves.

Economic Events on July 12, 2011

B.P.T. — Tue, 12 Jul 2011 11:05:06 +0000

At 7:30 AM EDT, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May will be released, providing information regarding the health and confidence of small businesses in the United States.

At 7:45 AM EDT, the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales report will be released, giving an update on the health of the consumer through this analysis of retail sales.

At 8:30 AM EDT, the International Trade report for May will be released. The consensus is a deficit of $42.7 billion, which would be $1.0 billion less than the previous month.

At 8:55 AM EDT, the weekly Redbook report will be released, giving us more information about consumer spending.

At 2:00 PM EDT, the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released, which will provide insight into how the Federal Reserve board governors and bank presidents view the economy.

On Free Trade

Simon Grey — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 14:40:13 +0000

Vox has recently leveled his formidable intellectual barrels at free trade (see here, here, and here). The conclusion that he has reached has been that free trade has had negative effects on the American economy for the past several years, and that the Ricardian theory upon which the defense of free trade rests is largely bunk. He is correct in both these assessments. However, there are a few things that need to be clarified.

First, the macroeconomic approach to free trade is different from the microeconomic approach. Vox’s argument rests on determining the ratio of imports to exports, which is the mainstream view. The microeconomic approach is to simply acknowledge that there is an exchange takes place, usually of currency for a good or service. The exchange is considered to be equivalent, in that the two parties consider that which is traded to be of at least equal value to what is being received in exchange. Thus, trade is always in a state of balance. It should be noted that the microeconomic view of trade balance is a tautology.

In the second case, Vox’s argument is based on macroeconomic reality, not microeconomic theory. The reality of American trade is that we are running what is defined to be a trade deficit, due in no small part to being willing to import cheap goods into the country. This has, in turn, shifted manufacturing jobs overseas. This is a matter of fact. Furthermore, Vox would be correct in recommending a tariff or a quota system as a way to remedy the trade deficit.

Third, it should be noted that it is economically foolish to pursue international free trade while maintaining a high degree of domestic market interventionism. If the government is going to mandate, say, a minimum wage for all workers, then domestic workers are legally prohibited from competing with foreign labor on price, to a limited extent. Having partial market freedom is just as distortive as complete market intervention. As such, it is entirely reasonable to hold all producers to the same production standards, whether said producers happen to be foreign or domestic. Karl Denninger, for one, has recommended wage and environmental parity tariffs, which are the entirely logical response to domestic market interventionism. Quite simply, it is utterly asinine to support free international trade without also supporting free domestic trade. And it is even more foolish to show stronger support for foreign trade than domestic trade, especially if the one showing support is the government.

Fourth, it should be noted that “free trade” is a bit of a misnomer. “Foreign trade” would be a more accurate description, for most of what passes for free trade today is actually governmental interference. One of the most famous examples of “free trade” of the last two decades, the North American Free Trade Agreement, begs the question: if this is really free trade, why are the governments in three different countries involved? Tautologically, free trade needs no governmental interference, regulation, or oversight. In fact, it only requires that the government get out of the way. Getting out of the way does not require prolonged discussion with foreign governments.

Professor Hale objected to Vox’s claims, saying essentially that people should be free to trade with whomever they want. I agree with this assertion as well. However, there are a few things that need pointed out here as well.

First, using microeconomic theory to argue macroeconomic policy can be troublesome, especially if one does not account for the relevant alternative variables. I cannot tell if this is the case with Professor Hale, mostly because I have only been reading his blog for a rather short amount of time. I assume that he supports a free domestic market as well. I will simply say, then, that if one is going to support free foreign trade than one must first support free domestic trade.

It should also be noted that most online arguments do not easily lend themselves to hyper-qualified, highly nuanced arguments. Trying to explain how one’s foreign trade prescriptions are identical to one’s domestic trade prescriptions takes time, and doesn’t always strike directly to the heart of the matter. In Professor Hale’s case, it appears that he supports market freedom both internationally and domestic. Unfortunately, given the nature of online debate, his defense of freedom comes across as supporting international trade.

At any rate, these are my thoughts, thus far, on international trade. I’ve addressed this subject before, but since the debate seems to be breaking out again, I decided to revisit it. One other thing that I think is worth mentioning is that ideals should be given their proper place. In this case, freedom and prosperity are the ideals. These ideals should neither be ignored nor used as a substitute for reality. Instead, they should be principles by which one makes policies in light of the current reality.

Economic Events on June 9, 2011

B.P.T. — Thu, 09 Jun 2011 11:45:20 +0000

At 8:30 AM EDT, the U.S. government will release its weekly Jobless Claims report. The consensus is that there were 418 ,000 new jobless claims last week, which would would be 4,000 less than the previous week.

Also at 8:30 AM EDT, the International Trade report for April will be released. The consensus is a deficit of $49.0 billion, which would be $0.8 billion larger than the previous month.

At 9:45 AM EDT, the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index will be released, providing an update on Americans’ views of the U.S. economy, their personal finances and the buying climate.

At 10:00 AM EDT, the Wholesale Trade report will be released for April, showing inventory levels for wholesalers in the United States.

At 10:30 AM EDT, the weekly Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Report will be released, giving an update on natural gas inventories in the United States.

At 11:00 AM EDT, the weekly Energy Information Administration Petroleum Status Report will be released, giving investors an update on oil inventories in the United States.

At 4:30 PM EDT, the Federal Reserve will release its Money Supply report, showing the amount of liquidity available in the U.S. economy.

Also at 4:30 PM EDT, the Federal Reserve will release its Balance Sheet report, showing the amount of liquidity the Fed has injected into the economy by adding or removing reserves.

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