By B.P.T., on June 15th, 2011
The Mortgage Bankers’ Association purchase index was released at 7:00 AM EDT, and there was a week to week increase of 4.5% in the Purchase Index and a week to week increase of 16.5% in the Refinance Index.
At 8:30 AM EDT, the Consumer Price Index report for May will be released. The consensus is that CPI did not change last month, and there was a 0.2% increase in CPI when food and energy are removed.
At 8:30 AM EDT, the Empire State manufacturing index for June will be released. The consensus is that the index value will be 14.0 which would be 2.12 points higher than the value reported in May.
At 9:00 AM EDT, the Treasury International Capital report for April will be released, showing the flow of capital in and out of the United States economy.
At 9:15 AM EDT, the Industrial Production report for May will be released. The consensus is that there will be an increase 0f 0.2% in production and an increase of 0.1% in industrial capacity utilization.
At 10:00 AM EDT, the Housing Market Index for June will be announced. This index is created from a survey of home builders, so it shows the confidence that the sector has in the overall economy and their business.
At 10:30 AM EDT, the weekly Energy Information Administration Petroleum Status Report will be released, giving investors an update on oil inventories in the United States.
By B.P.T., on May 17th, 2011
At 7:45 AM EDT, the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales report will be released, giving an update on the health of the consumer through this analysis of retail sales.
At 8:30 AM EDT, the Housing Starts report for April will be released. The consensus is that construction on 570,000 new homes were started last month, which would be an increase of 21,000 from the previous month.
At 8:55 AM EDT, the weekly Redbook report will be released, giving us more information about consumer spending.
At 9:15 AM EDT, the Industrial Production report for April will be released. The consensus is that there will be an increase 0f 0.4% in production and an increase of 0.6% in industrial capacity utilization.
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By B.P.T., on April 15th, 2011
At 8:30 AM EDT, the Empire State manufacturing index for April will be released. The consensus is that the index value will be 17.5, which would be the same value as reported in March.
Also at 8:30 AM EDT, the Consumer Price Index report for March will be released. The consensus is that CPI increased by 0.5% last month, with a 0.2% increase in CPI when food and energy are removed.
At 9:00 AM EDT, the Treasury International Capital report for February will be released, showing the flow of capital in and out of the United States economy.
At 9:15 AM EDT, the Industrial Production report for March will be released. The consensus is that there will be an increase 0f 0.6% in production and an increase of 1.0% in industrial capacity utilization.
At 9:55 AM EDT, Consumer Sentiment for the first half of April will be announced. The consensus is that the index will be at 69.0, which would be an increase of 1.5 points from the level reported in the second half of last month.
By B.P.T., on March 17th, 2011
At 8:30 AM EDT, the U.S. government will release its weekly Jobless Claims report. The consensus is that there were 385,000 new jobless claims last week, which would would be 12,000 less than the number released last week.
Also at 8:30 AM EDT, the Consumer Price Index report for February will be released. The consensus is that CPI increased by 0.4% last month, with a 0.1% increase in CPI when food and energy are removed.
At 9:15 AM EDT, the Industrial Production report for February will be released. The consensus is that there will be an increase 0f 0.6% in production and an increase of 0.4% in industrial capacity utilization.
At 10:00 AM EDT, the Leading Indicators report for February will be released. The consensus is that this index increased by 1.0% last month, which would be the seventh month of improvement in a row.
Also at 10:00 AM EDT, the Philadelphia Fed Survey report for March will be released. The consensus is that the index will be at 32, which would be an decrease of 3.9 points from the previous month.
At 10:30 AM EDT, the weekly Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Report will be released, giving an update on natural gas inventories in the United States.
At 4:30 PM EDT, the Federal Reserve will release its Money Supply report, showing the amount of liquidity available in the U.S. economy.
Also at 4:30 PM EDT, the Federal Reserve will release its Balance Sheet report, showing the amount of liquidity the Fed has injected into the economy by adding or removing reserves.
By B.P.T., on February 16th, 2011
The Mortgage Bankers’ Association purchase index was released at 7:00 AM EST, and there was a week to week decrease of 5.9% in the Purchase Index and a week to week decrease of 11.4% in the Refinance Index.
At 8:30 AM EST, the Housing Starts report for January will be released. The consensus is that construction on 540,000 new homes were started last month, which would be an increase of 11,000 from the previous month.
Also at 8:30 AM EDT, the Producer Price Index for January will be released. The consensus is that the index increased 0.7% over last month, and increased 0.2% when food and energy are excluded.
At 9:15 AM EST, the Industrial Production report for January will be released. The consensus is that there will be an increase 0f 0.5% in production and an increase of 0.3% in industrial capacity utilization.
At 10:30 AM EST, the weekly Energy Information Administration Petroleum Status Report will be released, giving investors an update on oil inventories in the United States.
At 2:00 PM EST, the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released, which will provide insight into how the Federal Reserve board governors and bank presidents view the economy.
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By B.P.T., on January 14th, 2011
At 8:30 AM EST, the Consumer Price Index report for December will be released. The consensus is that CPI increased by 0.4% last month, with a 0.1% increase in CPI when food and energy are removed.
Also at 8:30 AM EST, the Retail Sales report for December will be released. The consensus is that retail sales increased 0.8% from November, after a 0.8% increase last month.
At 9:15 AM EST, the Industrial Production report for December will be released. The consensus is that there will be an increase 0f 0.5% in production and an increase of 0.4% in industrial capacity utilization.
At 9:55 AM EST, Consumer Sentiment for the first half of January will be announced. The consensus is that the index will be at 75, which would be an improvement of 0.5 points from the level reported in the second half of last month.
At 10:00 AM EST, the Business Inventories report for November will be released. The consensus is that inventories increased 0.7% from October.
By Ajay Shah, on January 13th, 2011
Today’s data release showed y-o-y growth in the Index of Industrial Production: this was at +2.7% in November when compared with the previous value of 11.3%. Some analysts have conjectured that this was driven by seasonal fluctuations including the placement of Diwali, holidays related to Diwali and the reduced number of working days in November. In the jargon of seasonal adjustment, Diwali is termed a `moving holiday’: it’s a holiday which shows up in different months in different years.
Our work on seasonal adjustment includes treatment of the overall IIP and some of its components while controlling for the Diwali effect. Even after this adjustment, the seasonally adjusted annualised growth rate for the month is negative (-1.97%) while the average growth over three months including the current month is 0.18%.
IIP consumer goods fared particularly badly (a value of -6.48% for the 3-month average of the annualised point-on-point change of the seasonally adjusted level). Another weak performer was IIP manufacturing (0.017%). However, IIP capital goods shows an encouraging picture with a 3-month average of seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 41.10%.
The year-on-year change is the sum of 12 shocks. Ordinarily it has a lot of inertia. It is, indeed, surprising that the y-o-y change flipped from +11.3% to +2.7% for two consecutive months. There may well be major difficulties in the statistical system which are leading to this. We can be pretty confident that the odd behaviour is not caused by seasonal effects.
By B.P.T., on December 15th, 2010
The Mortgage Bankers’ Association purchase index was released at 7:00 AM EST, and there was a week to week decrease of 5.0% in the Purchase Index and a week to week decrease of 0.7% in the Refinance Index as interest rates hit a six month high.
At 8:30 AM EST, the Consumer Price Index report for November will be released. The consensus is that CPI increased by 0.2% last month, with a 0.1% increase in CPI when food and energy are removed.
Also at 8:30 AM EST, the Empire State manufacturing index for December will be released. The consensus is that the index value will be 5, which would be an increase of over 16 points from November, after an unexpected drop of 25 points last month.
At 9:00 AM EST, the Treasury International Capital report for October will be released, showing the flow of capital in and out of the United States economy.
At 9:15 AM EST, the Industrial Production report for November will be released. The consensus is that there will be an increase 0f 0.3% in production and an increase of 0.3% in industrial capacity utilization.
At 10:00 AM EST, the Housing Market Index for December will be announced. This index is created from a survey of home builders, so it shows the confidence that the sector has in the overall economy and their business.
At 10:30 AM EST, the weekly Energy Information Administration Petroleum Status Report will be released, giving investors an update on oil inventories in the United States.
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By Eldon Mast, on November 17th, 2010
Manufacturing rose quite handily in October. That is according to the Industrial Production report released on Tuesday.
By major components, manufacturing increased a healthy 0.5 percent, following an upwardly revised 0.1 percent rise in September (previously a 0.2 percent dip). Excluding motor vehicles, manufacturing rose 0.5 percent, following a 0.1 percent increase the month before.
The output of durable goods increased 0.9 percent, with increases in most major categories. The production of nondurable goods moved up 0.2 percent in October after having risen 0.4 percent in September.
It really is the manufacturing component that matters in this report since the utilities component can swing sharply on adverse weather. The manufacturing component is quite healthy and should lead us to discount any weakness in the Empire State report yesterday.
By B.P.T., on November 16th, 2010
At 7:45 AM EDT, the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales report will be released, giving an update on the health of the consumer through this analysis of retail sales.
At 8:30 AM EDT, the Producer Price Index for October will be released. The consensus is that the index increased 0.8% over last month, and increased 0.8% when food and energy are excluded.
At 8:55 AM EDT, the weekly Redbook report will be released, giving us more information about consumer spending.
At 9:00 AM EDT, the Treasury International Capital report for September will be released, showing the flow of capital in and out of the United States economy.
At 9:15 AM EDT, the Industrial Production report for October will be released. The consensus is that there will be an increase 0f 0.3% in production and an increase of 0.2% in industrial capacity utilization.
At 10:00 AM EDT, the Housing Market Index for November will be announced. This index is created from a survey of homebuilders, so it shows the confidence that the sector has in the overall economy and their business.
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