By Christopher Briem, on June 10th, 2011
Story of the day is about a new report from Brookings looking at the immigrant labor force in metro areas. Factoid that pops out is that Pittsburgh has one of the most educated immigrant flows in the nation. Actually it is again the most educated immigrant flow in the US.
The Brookings profile of our immigrants is here. What you see is we are the outlier in both share of immigrants in the region, but also quite the outlier when it comes to the educational attainment of the immigrants we do have.
Again, because it really is not a new story in any sense. That link goes to a 2004 article, which itself references some research using data back to 1995, and there is no reason to think that is the farthest back you could show similar things for the region.
That is not to say things are not changing in the region’s international diversity. I pointed out last month that it has only been in the last few years that Pittsburgh’s foreign born population has shifted from mostly European to mostly Asian. I bet if you surveyed the public on that, the vast majority would not think that is the case.
That we are attracting well educated immigrants is really part and parcel with where local job growth has been and the changes in the local labor force. You have to get beyond some of the age distortions that come out of having an older population.. older folks (especially in Pittsburgh) generally did not achieve higher education in the same way folks do now. If you are looking at regional metrics, conflating older and younger folks in education metrics confuses the issues.
So when we looked at the younger part of the workforce, you really see how Pittsburgh is nearly the most educated place in the nation when it comes to workers. For the proportion of workers age 25-34 with a graduate degree, we actually may be #1.. at worst tied with Washington, DC which has something of an artificially distinct workforce because of the Federal government. The folks finding jobs here are those with higher education, and where we lack demand is for those without some advanced education. That pattern is just what gets translated into the immigration flows.
All this also matches the data on where folks naturalizing as citizens are coming from; the latest public data on Pittsburgh I posted here, which was data from 2009. The 2010 data is out, but USCIS online is only reporting the top 50 metro and micro areas ranked by immigration flow and we fall below the top 50 is you believe that. So one big point is that this data on intl immigrants reflects both who comes to Pittsburgh (those with a lot of education, or those who acquire advanced education here), but also those who do not. So we get very low flows of international immigrants without advanced education.
* apologies to, or more a tip of the hat to the late Clarke Thomas’ version: They Came to Pittsburgh
By Ajay Shah, on April 4th, 2011
Sadly, India abstained.
In India, we’re quite gloomy about the place that has been given to organised labour. But these questions are not closed elsewhere in the world. See Robert Barro on the appropriate place of trade unions, and Matt Bai in the New York Times magazine on a politician taking on public sector trade unions.
Manoj Mitta has written, in the Times of India, about the new world of a Supreme Court headed by S. H. Kapadia.
Censorship.
Maybe the time will soon come to close down this blog.
An editorial on the questions that face U. K. Sinha as the new SEBI chief. And, Anirudh Laskar has an article in Mint about concerns about SEBI suffering a big upheaval.
Deepak Shenoy in Pragati on Paypal’s problems in India.
A new opening act by Ila Patnaik, in the Indian Express on 2 March 2011, on the announcements in the budget speech on capital controls.
S. S. Tarapore in the Hindu Business Line, on the FSLRC.
Joel Rebello in Mint on the internationalisation of India’s investment bankers.
Ashish Dhawan on his leaving the firm and what he will do next.
Good reporting in Mint by Sumeet Chatterjee about the potential for distress at Reliance Communications.
Ashish Khetan has a great story in Tehelka about the 2G scandal.
India is chipping away on removing visa restrictions.
Remya Nair and Surabhi Agarwal in Mint on post offices selling insurance products. Also see.
Why does China have a SOB-dominated financial system while India has a market-dominated financial system? Writing on Project
Syndicate, Mark Roe has a clue.
A great lecture by Stan Fischer at the RBI.
Why I write, by George Orwell.
Felicity Barringer looks back at Chernobyl.
The revolutions of the Arab world are endlessly fascinating. Read Volcano of Rage by Max Rodenbeck and The revolution is not yet over by Yasmine El Rashidi on the New York Review of Books blog. On Libya: Omar Ashour on Project Syndicate.
Yuriko Koike on Project Syndicate, on the evolution of production chains in Asia. The end of China’s cheap denim dream by Malcolm Moore in the Telegraph. Michael Pettis on the prospect of shorting a country that has $3 trillion in reserves.
Dubai on empty by A. A. Gill in Vanity Fair.
Football betting is a good place to measure the extent of wisdom of the crowd. In a paper titled Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting, Karen Croxson and J. James Reade argue: In an efficient market, news is incorporated into prices rapidly and completely. Attempts to test for this in financial markets have been undermined by the possibility of information leakage unobserved by the econometrician…. sports betting markets offer a superior way forward: assets have terminal values and news can break remarkably cleanly, as when a goal is scored in soccer. We exploit this context to test for efficiency, applying a novel identification strategy to high-frequency data. On our evidence, prices update swiftly and fully.

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By Ajay Shah, on January 27th, 2011
One of the important mistakes that India is making, in terms of integration into the world economy, is in visa rules. A key element
of progress there is the new `Visa on Demand’ program, which has now been expanded. The list of lucky countries now stands at: Japan, Singapore, Finland, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Philippines. This needs to now cover the G-20 countries. Another big frontier is setting up convenient access to work visas in order to support the burgeoning need for skilled foreigners who are needed in the Indian labour force.
Russell K. Nieli on the power of meritocracy as seen in Caltech. The IITs are similar to Caltech in two respects: No concern for how
`well rounded’ the background of an applicant is, and no concern in the admissions process for parentage or donations. The IITs do
care about caste to some extent in the admissions process, while Caltech cares about nothing other than brainpower.
Materials of the 2010 Neemrana conference organised by NCAER, NBER and ICRIER.
Sigh. Building a clean environment is hard!
Materials from the recent IGIDR finance conference.
Annie Lowrey on Slate on the role of prizes in public funding for research.
Mobis Philipose on competition against Nifty options at NSE by Nifty options at SGX, and on the problem of transaction taxes and exchange competition.
A household survey by CMIE tells us something about how ordinary households see the debate about the Bimal Jalan committee.
Sindhu Bhattacharya has an article in DNA about foreign airlines who are being prevented from operating in India. We need
a treaty framework that would render such things unlawful.
A. D. Miller in the Guardian on why Western authors like Mother Russia.
Interesting developments in the freedom of speech.
I guess they noticed that if you take the first word on every seventeenth page, it spells out “Death to the Shah”. That’s nothing, I have a blog that is banned in China!
A great story about how grain and oil led to the collapse of the USSR. By Yegor Gaidar.
Joe Keohane on boston.com on the odd feature of forecasting: The guy who gets the huge event right is often likely to fare badly in
ordinary times.
Lant Pritchett says that the notion of an `ethics code’ for economists is a silly idea.
By Rok Spruk, on September 14th, 2010
A recent paper by Jennifer Hunt (link) finds that the increase in foreign-born graduates strongly contributes to the innovation in the United States:
“In this paper I have demonstrated the important boost to innovation per capita provided by skilled immigration to the United States in 1950-2000. A calculation of the effect of immigration in the 1990-2000 period puts the magnitudes of the effects in context.
The 1990-2000 increase from 2.2% to 3.5% in the share of the population composed of immigrant college graduates increased patenting by at least 81:3 = 10:4%, and perhaps by as much as 18%. The increase in the share of post-college immigrants from 0.9% to 1.6% increased patenting by at least 10.5% and perhaps by as much as 24%. The increase from 0.30% to 0.55% in the share of workers who are immigrant scientists and engineers increased patenting by at least 13% but probably by less than 23%.
While I find evidence for the crowding-out of natives in the short run, in the long run there is evidence for the reverse: that skilled natives are attracted to states or occupations with skilled immigrants. The results hint that skilled immigrants innovate more than their native counterparts, especially if they are scientists or engineers. If correct, the result could reflect higher education of immigrants within skill categories, or positive selection of immigrants in terms of ability to innovate. However, the effect of natives is not as well identified econometrically as the effect of immigrants.”
Thanks to New Economist (link) for the pointer!
By Thomas Knapp, on August 26th, 2010
Jacob Lyles at The Distributed Republic:
Open border libertarians like to pretend that the supply of immigrant laborers has no effect on the welfare of existing United States workers. But this is not the case.
Broadly speaking, the welfare of an average Joe who trades his labor for a living depends on two factors. The first is labor productivity which determines how much employers are willing to bid for workers. The second is the supply of labor of similar quality. Increasing the supply of labor with a particular skill set will bid down the wages of workers with substitutable skills. …
There is no a priori reason to think that labor markets are immune to economic incentives.
I’ve never, ever, ever heard a libertarian claim that “the supply of immigrant laborers has no effect on the welfare of existing United States workers.”
On the contrary, an unconstrained ability of workers to move back and forth across imaginary lines drawn on the ground by politicians (”borders”) almost certainly has a great many effects — some of them putatively negative (increased local labor supplies where labor is needed, driving down wages), some of them putatively positive (decreased labor costs driving down prices for everyone), many of them unnoticed, all of them certainly subject to what Mises referred to as the “calculation problem” when it comes to regulation.
The real question is not whether or not Worker A will have less leverage in seeking higher wages if Workers B and C are “allowed” to cross one of those imaginary lines.
The real question is whether or not the state has a legitimate power to distort the market for the alleged benefit of Worker A at the expense of Workers B and C who are forbidden to rent their labor, at the expense of the employer seeking to rent labor, at the expense of those called upon to involuntarily “undo” the distortions with still further distortions, and at the expense of the customer who has to pay more for the product or service because Worker A got the monopoly he wanted.
The libertarian answer to that question, in case you were wondering, is “no.”
By Ajay Shah, on March 3rd, 2010
- Vikas Bajaj in the New York Times on privatisation in India.
- I had recently written a blog post on India’s foolishness on visa rules for people coming into conferences. Siddharth Varadarajan has a great opinion piece on this in the Hindu. In sensible countries, there is no such thing as a `visa for the purpose of attending a conference’. It’s just called a tourist visa.
- An editorial in the Wall Street Journal on India’s success on establishing a private sector with competition in mobile phones.
- Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar in the Economic Times on what the budget speech should say. Also see Ila Patnaik in Indian Express on the roadmap, and in Financial Express on expenditure. Writing in the Business Standard, Sanjaya Baru is also optimistic about what Pranab Mukherjee will be able to pull off.
- An extremely insightful conversation on charges of ETFs (in the comments to this post). This is the sort of thing one hopes for in blogs.
- Give financial sector a Financial Stability Board, in the Times of India.
- Bibek Debroy in Indian Express on India’s license-permit raj of exchange controls.
- I was at IFMR recently: did a talk on distribution of financial products, and looked at the `KGFS’ idea on increasing outreach of financial products.
- Sanjeev Sanyal in Business Standard on the outlook for Bombay.
- Andrew Jacobs in the New York Times on new developments in the Chinese end of India’s tiger extinction problem.
- John Gravois on remittances.
- We in India can look at the brainpower in the Chilean cabinet with wonder and envy.
- Catherine Rampall in the New York Times, reviewing Capitalism and the Jews by Jerry Z. Muller, which made me think about the different story of business-oriented ethnic groups of India.
- Robert Litan on financial innovation.
- Tarun Ramadorai in the Financial Express on hedge fund regulation.
- Alessandro Beber and Marco Pagano, on voxEU, analyse the global evidence on bans on short selling in the crisis. Hopefully we will learn the lesson for the next crisis.
- One of the great achievements of monetary policy reform in recent decades has been the establishment of executive Monetary Policy Committees (MPCs) which use formal voting mechanisms through which the policy rate is modified in order to achieve an inflation target, on a regular meeting cycle, with full transparency about how each person voted and why.
Writing on voxEU, Tim Besley and Andrew Scott emphasise the role of `fiscal councils’ where some (but not all) of these ideas are deployed into fiscal policy.
- I find it interesting to look at how the army of a great power works. See Elizabeth Rubin in Time magazine on Robert Gates (the US defence minister), and Chris Wilson in Slate on some remarkable soldiers. I suppose journalists like Elizabeth Rubin and Chris Wilson are also integral to being a great power.
- Interesting new things in the world of trading and exchanges, all from the Financial Times: Size of share orders cut in half on global markets and Small orders breed dark pools and higher costs by Jeremy Grant, Markets: Ghosts in the machine by Jeremy Grant and Michael Mackenzie, and lastly New US options exchange battles for market space by Hal Weitzman.


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By Thersites, on February 3rd, 2010
It’s not every evening that you are able to pack a room full of a hundred libertarians on the Upper West Side of Manhattan, let alone at the bastion of leftism that is Columbia University. But tonight was different, as Loyola Professor and Columbia alum Walter Block was on campus, leading a spirited lecture on all things Austrian.
During the first part of his discussion, he spoke to his encounters with a variety of notable economists including Milton Friedman, Murray Rothbard, Ludwig von Mises and Gary Becker amongst others. With his characteristic Brooklyn sense of humor, Block had the audience laughing as he recounted stories like that of his defense of his dissertation on rent control against one of his judges, a rent control commissioner, and his meeting with Nathaniel Branden and Ayn Rand back when he was a rabid young socialist and subsequent conversion to libertarianism.
He then dealt with more substantive issues across the spectrum of political economy with aplomb. Block tackled the mainstream economists’ failures in their dealing with welfare economics, in which as Block argues there is a lack of recognition of each individual’s unique subjective utility with regard to various products proving amongst other reasons why marginal utility as justification for wealth redistribution fails, and in dealing with the absurdity of antitrust laws that are either used to prosecute companies for evil price gouging, ruthless undercutting or dastardly collusion.
Block also tackled fractional-reserve banking. Now we can all agree that fractional-reserve banking is an evil and fraudulent system that is the principle mechanism for inflating the money supply. However, my view had been that if two parties agreed to a contract that allowed demand deposits to be lent out, this was fine as both parties did so at their own risk. Block argues that two parties agreeing to a contract based upon fractional reserve proves illegitimate because a contract has to be consonant with property rights. In Block’s view, fractional reserve creates a system where multiple titles are given to a single piece of property (money); the obligations to the parties are greater than the assets involved, so the system is thus not Kosher.
Block also tackled social issues such as immigration, where he made a couple of interesting arguments. First, he rightly pointed out that those who wish to restrict immigration because of the belief that immigrants would take advantage of the welfare state were dealing with the symptoms rather than the root cause of the problem which is the welfare state. Second, he argued that being against immigration meant being against babies, since they both represent new additions to the population. I would differ with Block in that I don’t believe babies born into a certain society are equivalent in their socialization to those coming from societies with differing values. This is not to say I am against legal immigration, but that I do not believe newborns and immigrants are necessarily equivalent in terms of their effect on society. I also have not sufficiently examined my immigration views with respect to defense. If a certain group clearly poses an existential threat to your society, then should you invite them over the border and deal with them only when mass murder has been committed? This may be dealing with a symptom of immigration rather than a root cause of the militancy of a foreigner or group of foreigners, but nevertheless these issues amongst many others must be reconciled.
He also argued against intellectual property, as in Block’s eyes ideas are not scarce and can’t be owned. The argument goes that if ideas were property, then one would not be able to speak because someone else would have laid claim to each word. Again, IP is an issue which I have yet to study enough to firmly pick a side on, but at face value to me the issue seems to deal on the one hand with incentivizing people to produce things (by granting them a monopoly right to that product for a limited time), and on the other trying to ensure a free market in which competition amongst producers is robust, driving down costs while increasing quality for the consumer. I know the Boldrin book addresses a variety of discoveries that occurred without the incentive of a patent or copyright, but again I have not settled on this issue.
Block also put forth the view that man is not naturally predisposed towards liberty because while he initially developed explicit cooperation in helping out his fellow hunter-gatherers, he was never hardwired for implicit cooperation through the price system of the market. The argument goes that this spontaneous system coordinating the wants of individuals is foreign to us inherently because back in the days of hunting and gathering, we were not dealing with voluntary transactions with people from all over the world. We simply worked together in small traveling groups. To this argument, he also added that the ruling class has brainwashed the people and quashed perceived “radical” voices like that of Ron Paul. I don’t believe these reasons are sufficient to explain why collective tyranny continues to trump individual liberty, especially when many people support legalized plunder because they benefit from it, and because there are certain Judeo-Christian values some construe as supporting socialism, amongst many other reasons.
Finally, Block addressed one of my questions on the private provision of defense. Since I find the defense as private insurance companies argument interesting, I asked Block what happens if one’s enemies buy out their defense company. Block admitted there would be a problem here, but made the case that a government military could be bought out by enemies as well. This was a fair though in my view somewhat tenuous response, and there are numerous other arguments as a practical matter that can be made against private defense. Briefly, in my view, defense is not about economic efficiency, but defending a group of people with common values. And too, in our society we have allowed for the proliferation of private defense forces to assist our public defense — in other words we allow our military to yield the benefits of free market institutions. I believe that defense and the courts are the proper realms of government, problem-riddled as they may be. I believe in our Constitution when read in its plain language. To expound upon this debate will be left for another occasion.
Overall, Block’s arguments were welcome banter for this writer so infrequently exposed to anarcho-capitalist ideas promulgated by a real person in the flesh. The evening made for great entertainment and deep reflection on a plethora of issues. It was a pleasure to hear Professor Block’s unique perspective on the world. To be exposed to radical arguments on either side of the issues certainly helps one to check one’s principles and grow intellectually. Without challenges to our beliefs and constant intellectual criticism, we become complacent. Luckily, as I have found on my intellectual journey of the past few years, the libertarian community keeps its members constantly on their toes.
By Dan McLaughlin, on April 1st, 2009
You may have heard of the report of the Missouri Information Analysis Center (MIAC) called “The Modern Militia Movement.” The MIAC is “fusion center”, combining the Department Of Homeland Security with local organizations. It has created a stir because there are a few people who resent being called domestic terrorist suspects. Who knows, even you may even qualify. You might want to check before you go to Missouri. With involvement by DHS, the same is likely in other states. It just hasn’t been leaked to the press yet.
The Missouri State Police have been issued the report to make them more aware of what to look for to determine potential domestic terrorists. They include characteristics such as Christian religious ideology, anti-abortionist, tax resistance or anti-immigration beliefs. It’s comforting to know that you may be joined on that list of terrorists by some very well known and respected citizens.
According to the report, those who have concerns about the new world order should be watched carefully. They may have terrorist tendencies. Indeed, President Bush, the elder, must be one of the top suspects, because almost two decades ago, he discussed openly and publicly about the “New World Order”, or NWO, and has been pursuing the idea actively. He has been joined by many national and international politicians in discussing the idea of a NWO over many years. Of course, he will be a leader of the new order, so he probably won’t be harassed too much.
There are countless ways to qualify, however. If you don’t like President Obama, you may qualify as a white supremacist. If you resent the idea that the president refused, and continues to refuse, to present a valid birth certificate to prove that he is eligible for the presidency, you may be a terrorist.
If you believe that “President Obama is tight on gun control” and may enact firearms confiscations, or if you happen to think that the strong correlation between gun control laws and violent crime might be worth considering, you may be a dangerous criminal. If you think that the Ammunition Accountability Act is an abuse of power, you may have latent terrorist tendencies. President Obama’s chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel will have to be tagged as a potential terrorist, because he definitely believes gun control and confiscations are coming, and is actively working to make it happen.
If you believe that there may be a severe economic and political crisis that may cause violence, be careful what you say, you may be watched. If you are concerned with the plans for the formation of a North American Union by former Assistant Secretary of State, Strobe Talbott, all of the intellectuals of the Brookings Institution, the Council on Foreign Relations and countless other organizations and politicians, you are probably a crazed lunatic. None of that wild talk of the Amero unified currency or the NAFTA Superhighway through the heart of America. Robert Pastor and Andres Rosenthal, contributors to the book “The Future Of Integration”, have said “NAFTA is not enough” and the integration will “create the most powerful, single economic entity on earth.” Bush the younger and the presidents of Canada and Mexico can also be added to the list of suspects for their silly talk about the Union in their planning session.
Your unfounded concern that the government may institute mandatory national service may land you on the list also. You should be joined there by the 535 congressmen who are presently attempting to pass the euphemistically named “Generations Invigorating Volunteeerism and Education (GIVE) Act”, which directs the study of the feasibility of mandatory service requirements. It is a goal stated by the president and various administration officials, so theoretically, they should also be on the list.
If you exercised your political rights but had the bad judgment to support politically incorrect presidential candidate Ron Paul or third party libertarian candidates Bob Barr or Chuck Baldwin, the jigs up. You had better scrape those bumper stickers off your car.
It’s a good thing for us non-terrorists that we are being protected against all of those wacko people who don’t adore the politicians or believe that they may be corrupt and sell out the citizens of this country to the highest bidder. We won’t have to worry about all of those crazy Christians and patriotic constitution-lovers. The police are now aware of all of those dangerous bible toting thugs and freedom loving patriots. There now, don’t you feel safer?
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By Lee Jamieson, on September 11th, 2008
There is a common misconception about Europe – that immigration is the single greatest threat to the economies of EU member states. However, evidence suggests that Europe is on the brink of a far greater crisis, for which immigration provides the only economically-effective solution.
As the world emerges from its blissfully long summer of global economic growth, seismic demographic shifts are underway, and few governments are prepared for the impending fallout. Anxiety about the world’s “mushrooming” population has been replaced by concerns about the sudden drop in global birthrates.
A population replaces itself at a rate of 2.1 births per couple, and any drops below that figure are watched closely by demographers. Considering that the United Nations has set a birthrate of 1.5 as their crisis point, the current figure of 1.3 in southern and eastern Europe spells disaster for the once thriving economies of these countries. The population of southern and eastern Europe is expected to half within 45 years if the birthrate of 1.3 continues, intensifying the pension crisis, making it harder for governments to meet the costs of basic healthcare and starving key industries of a diverse labor market.
Demographic Shifts
According to a new report by Eurostat, deaths will outnumber births in the EU by 2015. Germany will be particularly hard hit by this trend, losing 14% of its population by 2060. The affect on Germany’s economy has been on the political agenda for years as the country prepares to lose its title as the EU’s largest state within the next 50 years.
As Germany contracts, France is set to prosper but at great expense to its economy. The French government has introduced a series of incentives including generous social security payments, free state crèche facilities and subsidized travel.
Spain has taken an altogether different approach. The fact that only a miserly 0.7% of Spain’s GDP is allocated to helping families makes it unsurprising that the country sports one of Europe’s lowest birthrates. Yet, Spain’s population is flourishing, largely due to its newly introduced immigration policies. In 2005, the Spanish authorities gave work permits to around 700,000 illegal immigrants, and the economy has since enjoyed this new stream of taxation.
Finding a Solution
European countries with dwindling birthrates need to take action now – and in one way or another, it is going to cost them. Inaction could lead to an eventual economic collapse in the long-term where there are too few people to support the aging population. Eurostat predicts that the percentage of Europeans aged over 65 will rise sharply from 17% today to 30% in 2060.
Countries could follow the example set by France and introduce a whole raft of expensive incentives to encourage larger families. Protecting the economy against the looming population crunch today could offset tomorrow’s expenses, protect key industries in the long-term and reduce the impact of the pension crisis. France has certainly recognized the devastating potential of a population crunch and has made some bold moves to preempt it. Although expensive, France has retained its sovereignty.
The same cannot be said for Spain, however. The liberalization of its immigration laws has prompted concerns about both Spanish and EU sovereignty. How can Spanish culture survive if its borders are opened to immigration as the Spanish population dwindles? Perhaps Spain is more open to Europe’s new-found multiculturalism, promoted by the freedom of movement within the EU.
Offsetting the ever-widening hole in Europe’s dwindling workforce with a renewed enthusiasm for immigration may be the only way for some European countries to stave off the population crunch – and the resulting loss of sovereignty may be a necessary evil. Perhaps immigration is not the EU’s greatest economic threat but, rather, its savior.
By Mary Nichols, on July 9th, 2008
When Eastern European countries joined the EU in 2004 and 2007, concerns were raised about a possible flood of migration to the UK, a country already experiencing record immigration levels. According to some media reports, not only would the British labor market be overrun by low-skilled East European workers but the widening of the EU boundaries would also result in a surge of illegal migrants who would easily slip in through countries with weaker immigration controls. It was argued that these developments would have adverse impacts on the British economy since the East European immigrants would accept low-paid work, reducing wage costs and increasing unemployment levels among native workers and thus suppressing prices and economic growth.
Many other EU countries decided to protect their labor forces from East European migration by exercising the right to impose a seven-year ban on working for the new EU citizens. Great Britain allowed most new EU nationals to take up employment in the UK immediately, subject to registration with the government. In the face of rising public concerns about immigration, it did, however, impose temporary restrictions on the numbers of Romanian and Bulgarian nationals allowed to work in the UK after these two countries were admitted to the EU in January 2007.
What is known about the impacts of East European migration on the British economy to date? Any findings will have considerable significance for the debate about immigration and the economy, which has long occupied the minds of academics and policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic.
Crying Flood
First, actual levels of East European migration to Great Britain have been much lower than some observers had feared. Data from the British Government’s Worker Registration Scheme indicate that around 800,000 East European migrants joined the British labor force between May 2004 and the end of December 2007; by 2008 it was being reported that applications for employment had dropped to their lowest levels since 2005. Moreover, the available data suggests that up to half of all East European migrants have returned home after a period of working in the UK.
Synthesizing the findings of a range of studies, a House of Lords report published in April reported that immigration results in clear “winners and losers in economic terms.” The winners in this economic contest include the immigrants who land jobs as well as the employers who are able to fill their vacancies at relatively low wage rates, while the losers include those directly competing for low-skilled or low-paid jobs, including many immigrants already in the country as well as young entrants to the labor market. For the economy as a whole, the House of Lords report concluded, immigration may not be beneficial due to its suppressing effects on labor costs and thus on the price of goods and services.
However, academic research for the British Government published more recently in June, The Impact of Migration from the New EU Member States on Native Workers, claims to provide data showing that East European migration has had no adverse impact on unemployment or wage levels among the existing British population and has increased annual levels of economic growth by 0.15% per capita.
The Extremities of the Population
Globally, researchers have not been able to reach a consensus about whether immigration in general has a positive or negative impact on a country’s economy – some argue that the costs and benefits cancel each other out so the overall effect is in any case minimal. The lack of conclusive findings may be explained by the results of a UK study, Migration: an economic and social analysis, which concluded that immigrant characteristics are more polarized than those of the general population, often including extremes of wealth and poverty, concentrations of high-skilled and low-skilled workers and of employed and unemployed (or economically inactive) people.
The overall impact on a country’s economy will clearly depend, therefore, on the profile of its immigrant population as well as prevailing labor market conditions and the need for particular types of workers. Moreover, the social effects of immigration and their indirect economic impacts must also be included in the equation: the UK Border Agency recently reported that in the majority of English regions, recent migration has resulted in pressures on housing and education and in crime problems.
See Also
Blanchflower, D., Salaheen, J. & Shadforth, C. (2007). The impact of the recent migration from Eastern Europe on the UK economy. Discussion Papers 17. Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
Glover, S. Gott, C., Loizillon, A., Portes, J., Price, R., Spencer, S., Srinivasan. V. & Willis, C. (2001). Migration: an economic and social analysis. RDS Occasional Paper No 67. London: The Home Office.
Home Office. UK Border Agency (2008, May 20). Eastern European migration falls (http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/sitecontent/newsarticles/migrationfalls).
Home Office (2008). Evidence from our regional consultation on the impacts of migration (draft) (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/17_10_07_migration.pdf).
House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs (2008). 1st Report of Session 2007–08: The Economic Impact of Immigration Volume I.
Lemos, S. & Portes, J. (2008). The Impact of Migration from the New EU Member States on Native Workers. London: Department for Work and Pensions.
Rowthorn, R. (2004). The Economic Impact of Immigration. Civitas Online Report. (http://www.civitas.org.uk/pdf/Rowthorn_Immigration.pdf).
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