I’m Right (Again)

But, in the first study of its kind, the MAC – set up by the last Labour government, and independent of Whitehall – said large-scale immigration was having a significant impact on the job prospects of the ‘native’ population.

The report, which follows years of controversy over whether immigration leads to fewer jobs for British workers, showed that every increase of 100 foreign-born working-age migrants in the UK was linked to a reduction of 23 Britons in employment between 1995 and 2010.

Between 2005 and 2010 alone, the number of working-age migrants in employment rose by 700,000 and displaced 160,000 British-born workers, it said.

As can generally be expected, increasing the supply of something—in this case labor—without a similar increase in demand for that thing will generally lead to lower prices. When there is a price floor of sorts (minimum wage, workers’ rights, etc.), the better labor will win out at the margins, which is what appears to have happened here. Since those who decide to emigrate usually tend to be of a rather hardy stock, it should come as no surprise that they are often viewed as marginally better labor, and, as such, get hired more often. And it should also come as no surprise that the marginally superior laborers (immigrants) are offered jobs that would otherwise be offered to natives.
But more than that, it is philosophically consistent to support both free trade and free labor, as the arguments or them are rather similar. The problem, though, with both free trade and free labor is that domestic regulation of both tends to discourage domestic production/producers. As such, both free trade and free labor operate essentially as foreign subsidies. However, free labor is the more pernicious of the two seeing as how it not only undermines domestic production, but also domestic culture, what with the sudden influx of people from other cultures. Ad while people from another culture may enjoy the consequences of living in another culture, this is no guarantee that they will ever do anything but support and further their original culture.
The lesson to be learned from this is that free labor—or even limited regulation—is not particularly beneficial for the native population, economically. As such, it can reasonably be said that any politician who advocates an increase in immigration, tolerance for illegal aliens, or otherwise promotes the migration of foreign workers of any sort is one who is ignorant, hates his country, or is simply stupid.

More Proof

I while back I noted how the claim that there were jobs “Americans wouldn’t do” was false. Apparently my general theory that migrant workers are largely unnecessary to the functioning of an economy has more proof, this time from Russia via John Derbyshire:

You notice a trace or more of Asia in the features among workers in the lowest occupations. I suppose some are remnants of the Mongolian peoples who once ruled much of the country; some are part-aboriginal like our room cleaner; and many come from the Muslim Stans of Central Asia.

Does this tell us that there are Jobs Russians Won’t Do? I doubt it. There are plenty of fair, blue-eyed Russians down there among the Kyrgyz and Buryats doing the drudge work. The overwhelming impression in central Moscow is of a city populated almost entirely by Russians. I have not had the opportunity to call any major firm or government office in Moscow, but I feel fairly sure that if I did, I would not be instructed to press “1” for Russian.

To see how striking all this is, imagine yourself wandering around central London, Manhattan, Los Angeles, or even—more rapidly this past few years, it seems—Washington, DC.

Once you strip away all the market distortions, particularly wage floors and lax immigration policies, you’ll see quite clearly that natives, as a group, are willing to take any every job available. Federal policies have a distortive effect, to be sure. For example, the education bubble likely reinforces the current generation’s distaste for manual labor. Also, welfare encourages people to avoid marginal jobs, which are also generally distasteful. And I’ve already harped on the effects of weak immigration policy coupled with minimum wage. But, strip away these things and you no longer need immigrant labor to keep the economy afloat. Anyone who says otherwise is either ignorant, stupid, or a liar.

Jobs Americans Won’t Do?

It looks like that canard is just plain wrong:

Unemployment rates have fallen in Alabama amid new legal pressure on companies to comply with a popular immigration reform law.

September was the first full month that the reform was in force, and the unemployment rate fell from 9.8 percent in September to 9.3 percent in October, according to a Nov. 18 report from the state government.

The rates fell from 9.9 percent to 9 percent in Etowah County, from 8.8 percent to 8.1 percent in Marshall county, and from 11.6 percent to 10.6 percent in DeKalb county. [Hat tip: Karl Denninger.]

As I’ve written before, illegal labor and minimum wage don’t go together because illegal labor prices legal labor out of the market. This is very simple economics. If you increase supply of something without increasing demand, prices will drop. And, if there is some sort of price floor in that market (think minimum wage), then that which has a price floor will be priced out at the margin. Therefore, when you decrease supply of something while demand remains stagnant, price will rise and marginal purchases will occur again. Incidentally, that’s precisely what happened in Alabama, and that’s what should happen in every state.

If there are any governors who might be squeamish about the idea of booting illegals back to the third-world, dirt-ridden country from which they came, let me offer you three benefits, beyond the simple reduction in unemployment rates, for your consideration.

First, government expenditures will decrease because you will no longer have to pay for free-riding illegals. Education costs, medical care costs, law enforcement costs, etc. will all decline because you won’t have to pay for social programs for illegals, or police them.

Second, tax revenues will increase. If people earn money, they will have taxable income. They will also inevitably spend some of it, which means increases in sales tax revenue. There might even be indirect increases in property tax revenue, since increased employment should increase demand for property at the margins.

Finally, this will head off potential political unrest. In spite of multi-culturists’ best attempts at convincing people that people from different cultures are all the same, the simple fact of the matter is that people from different cultures are different from one another. Another simple truth: People hate people who are different from them (just ask the Jews what the Germans thought of them in the 30’s), and they love to scapegoat people from other countries and cultures. Sometimes this can be violent.

If, however, you kick illegals out your state, they won’t be around to be scapegoated, which means that you have likely prevented bloodshed. Also, with increased employment as a result, you have a population that will not be as inclined to view violence against other ethnic groups as necessary.

Frankly, if this is not enough to compel you to implement a policy similar to Alabama’s, then you are simply unfit to be a governor, and will deserve the wrath of the voters during the next election or uprising, whichever comes first. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Boomer Hypocrisy

Or maybe you’ll claim that you had it rough and we’re just a bunch of whiners. “Back when I was your age, I worked five jobs to get through college and I turned out fine!” But I’ll bet you didn’t have to deal with illegal Mexicans competing with you for those jobs, making whole sectors of the economy off-limits to white Americans. Or affirmative action. Or outsourcing, or downsizing, or any other of the retarded economic policies fostered and facilitated by both the Republicans and Democrats.

When the Boomers were first entering the workforce, illegal labor wasn’t a problem. This meant that Boomers could be reasonably sure of finding decent-paying jobs even if they did not have a college degree. So, because the labor market was smaller, they could earn more money.

Then they moved on with their careers, taking on higher-level management positions and entering white collar work. And then they decided that the things they wanted were too expensive, so they tweaked immigration laws to make it easier for businesses to employ cheap labor, driving down the cost of goods.

Of course, this means that the current generation is worse off because it cannot (legally) compete with black market labor, thanks to minimum wage laws, payroll taxes, and a whole host of other market interventions that black-market labor generally avoids.This, then, typifies the hypocrisy of Boomers. They take advantage of everything that society offered them in their youth and then change the rules when they get into power so future generations can’t do the same things they did. The Boomers are truly a generation that has only ever acted in bad faith. Don’t be surprised when their children and grandchildren do the same. Where do you think they will have learned it from?

“Too Hard”

I wonder if there is any way to get Americans to shed their lazy mindset:

Another Times article published this week, however, challenges the idea of “perfect substitutes” advanced by the NBER study and paints an alternate picture of the economic reasoning behind Alabama’s legislation. John Harold, a Colorado farmer profiled by the Times, tried to hire some unemployed Americans to work on his ranch and paid them a wage of $10.50 an hour, like the migrant workers he usually employs from the federal H-2A program (Colorado’s regular minimum wage is $7.36). The American workers quit, citing the labor as too hard – something that didn’t happen with the Mexican laborers Harold traditionally used. [Emphasis added.]

I’m sure there are plenty of socio-cultural reasons why Americans view this sort of manual labor as too tedious for them.Americans are, by and large, a rather soft people, at least these days.

Personally, I blame video games for a good part of this* (all of the psychological rewards of work with none of the sweat!).

But, I’m guessing that the social safety net plays a role in this as well. How many people would quit their jobs at the ranch if they knew that there was no guarantee of money if they quit (i.e. no welfare)? I’m guessing that number would be a little bit lower. It’s easy to quit because the work’s too demanding when you can live off of welfare until you find an opening at Target. It’s not so easy when quitting means that you lose your house and go hungry.Since it’s hard to tell how big a role state and federal social safety net programs have played in all this, it’s correspondingly difficult to figure how much blame the respective governments bear for this current mindset. At any rate, though, I think it’s safe to say that the government has certainly been complicit in sowing the seeds to America’s destruction.

* I kid, I kid.

Logical Conclusions

Sometimes economists can be complete idiots:

What is the biggest single drag on the beleaguered global economy? Opponents of globalisation might point to the current crisis, which shrank the world economy by about 5%. Proponents of globalisation might point to the remaining barriers to international flows of goods and capital, which also serve to shrink the world economy by approximately 5%. That sounds like a lot.

But the truly big fish are swimming elsewhere. The world impoverishes itself much more through blocking international migration than any other single class of international policy. A modest relaxation of barriers to human mobility between countries would bring more global economic prosperity than the total elimination of all remaining policy barriers to goods trade – every tariff, every quota – plus the elimination of every last restriction on the free movement of capital. [Emphasis added.]

I’ve addressed the stupidity of the “free trade” advocates before, so I won’t do it again here.  However, I will address the problems with the concept of free labor.

First, the economic models used to demonstrate the wisdom of free labor often ignore the simple fact that the conditions facilitating trade in the first place are predicated on culture, and that allowing people from one culture to interact with the trade-oriented culture will diminish the support for the very conditions that allow for trade in the first place.  In other words, all cultures are different.  Some are pro-trade, others are not, and some are only pro-trade when the benefits are staggeringly obvious.  Expecting radically different cultures to interact with one another without also expecting a change in the cultural institutions that harbored that interaction in the first place is astonishingly stupid, and, indeed, ignorant of basic human nature.

This mindset, that the free market will be enough to ensure that all people from all cultures will behave rationally and interact peacefully with one another, is predicated on the wholly fallacious assumptions that people are inherently rational, that all cultures are equivalent, and that cultural biases and prejudices are easily overcome.  Of course, the real world differs significantly from this model.  People are not rational creatures; they are rationalizing creatures.  And, shockingly, people still hate people from other countries simply because they’re from other countries!

Economic growth is rarely (perfectly) linear and never guaranteed.  Furthermore, the conditions for growth are vast and complex, and so it is the height of arrogance to think that models that inaccurately measure a few irrelevant variables are going to make for a compelling argument.  Yet, this is precisely what economists are doing when they argue for free labor.

Second, free labor (and, come to think of it, free trade) advocates tend to ignore the very simple fact that wealth is not based on being able to buy things at lower prices.  Lower prices are the effect, not the cause.  Quite simply, economists ignore fundamental microeconomic principles, leading to this wacky macroeconomic theory.

Wealth, fundamentally, comes from producing something of value, whether for yourself or someone else.  As long as you value that which you’ve created in the quantity in which you’ve supplied it, you have created wealth.  If you create something that someone else values in the quantity in which they value it, you have created wealth.

The standard macroeconomic theory posits that people are effectively wealthier when they can consume more products at identical or lower prices.  Of course, this thinking extends to labor, with the argument being that cheaper labor enables one to produce more with less (in essence, the decreased cost of inputs means that cheaper labor translates to greater economic activity).

This argument is technically true, but irrelevant.  Lower prices as a result of cheap labor does not make consumers wealthier because consumption is, by definition, destructive since one is using up a resource.  What makes consumers wealthier is their own personal production, not lower prices.  Lower prices, in a sense, give the illusion of wealth because they make it easier for poor people to have the things that rich people once exclusively enjoyed.  Note that this is not to condemn lower prices in and of themselves, but rather to clarify that lower prices are no substitute for production.

And so, the argument made by free trade and free labor apologists is largely irrelevant.  Lower prices do not make people inherently wealthier.  Instead, they reveal how other people have become wealthier by improving their means and methods of production.  Confusing cause and effect is a fundamental error, and one that is often overlooked in this debate.

In sum, the argument for free movement of labor completely ignores human nature, as well as basic economic principles.  As such, it does not merit any further discussion, nor should it be taken seriously.

Fixing American Unemployment

“Of jobs created in Texas since 2007, 81 percent were taken by newly arrived immigrant workers (legal and illegal),” says the report from the Center for Immigration Studies, a group that advocates reduced levels of both legal and illegal immigration. The report estimates that about 40 percent of the new jobs were taken by illegal immigrants, while 40 percent were taken by legal immigrants. The vast majority of both groups, legal and illegal, were not American citizens. (Hat tip: Vox Day.)

Native-born Americans filled just 20 percent of the new jobs in Texas, the report says, even though “the native born accounted for 69 percent of the growth in Texas’ working-age population.” “Thus, even though natives made up most of the growth in potential workers, most of the job growth went to immigrants,” the report concludes.

If you want to fix the unemployment mess America currently faces, do four things:

One, round up all illegal immigrants and guest workers and deport them. I am unable to comprehend how a government that claims to represent the interests of its people even tolerates any foreign workers when the unemployment rate is hovering around 16%. Why is this allowed when citizens are jobless and looking for work? Citizens should be given preference when it comes to domestic policy, and labor is no exception.

Two, deregulate labor. Get rid of the minimum wage, the minimum age, and mandatory overtime pay laws. Price floors always, without fail, create a surplus. Again, labor is no exception.

Three, get rid of government-sponsored welfare, unemployment compensation, and all other forms of paying people to not work. This will give the currently unemployed a very powerful incentive to find and/or create a job. Note, however, that one should not end the dole without first having eliminated minimum wage.

Four, get rid of payroll taxes. Milton Friedman’s monstrously stupid idea to have taxes withheld from one’s paycheck places compliance costs on businesses that they do not face when hiring illegal workers.This, in turn, makes it more difficult for legal workers to compete with illegal workers. As such, ending payroll taxes will reduce the costs of employment, and make it easier for citizens to compete for jobs.

They came to Pittsburgh *

Story of the day is about a new report from Brookings looking at the immigrant labor force in metro areas. Factoid that pops out is that Pittsburgh has one of the most educated immigrant flows in the nation. Actually it is again the most educated immigrant flow in the US.

The Brookings profile of our immigrants is here.  What you see is we are the outlier in both share of immigrants in the region, but also quite the outlier when it comes to the educational attainment of the immigrants we do have.

Again, because it really is not a new story in any sense. That link goes to a 2004 article, which itself references some research using data back to 1995, and there is no reason to think that is the farthest back you could show similar things for the region.
That is not to say things are not changing in the region’s international diversity. I pointed out last month that it has only been in the last few years that Pittsburgh’s foreign born population has shifted from mostly European to mostly Asian. I bet if you surveyed the public on that, the vast majority would not think that is the case.

That we are attracting well educated immigrants is really part and parcel with where local job growth has been and the changes in the local labor force. You have to get beyond some of the age distortions that come out of having an older population.. older folks (especially in Pittsburgh) generally did not achieve higher education in the same way folks do now. If you are looking at regional metrics, conflating older and younger folks in education metrics confuses the issues.
So when we looked at the younger part of the workforce, you really see how Pittsburgh is nearly the most educated place in the nation when it comes to workers. For the proportion of workers age 25-34 with a graduate degree, we actually may be #1.. at worst tied with Washington, DC which has something of an artificially distinct workforce because of the Federal government. The folks finding jobs here are those with higher education, and where we lack demand is for those without some advanced education.  That pattern is just what gets translated into the immigration flows.

All this also matches the data on where folks naturalizing as citizens are coming from; the latest public data on Pittsburgh I posted here, which was data from 2009. The 2010 data is out, but USCIS online is only reporting the top 50 metro and micro areas ranked by immigration flow and we fall below the top 50 is you believe that. So one big point is that this data on intl immigrants reflects both who comes to Pittsburgh (those with a lot of education, or those who acquire advanced education here), but also those who do not. So we get very low flows of international immigrants without advanced education.



* apologies to, or more a tip of the hat to the late Clarke Thomas’ version: They Came to Pittsburgh

Interesting readings

Sadly, India abstained.

In India, we’re quite gloomy about the place that has been given to organised labour. But these questions are not closed elsewhere in the world. See Robert Barro on the appropriate place of trade unions, and Matt Bai in the New York Times magazine on a politician taking on public sector trade unions.

Manoj Mitta has written, in the Times of India, about the new world of a Supreme Court headed by S. H. Kapadia.

Censorship.

Maybe the time will soon come to close down this blog.

An editorial on the questions that face U. K. Sinha as the new SEBI chief. And, Anirudh Laskar has an article in Mint about concerns about SEBI suffering a big upheaval.

Deepak Shenoy in Pragati on Paypal’s problems in India.

A new opening act by Ila Patnaik, in the Indian Express on 2 March 2011, on the announcements in the budget speech on capital controls.

S. S. Tarapore in the Hindu Business Line, on the FSLRC.

Joel Rebello in Mint on the internationalisation of India’s investment bankers.

Ashish Dhawan on his leaving the firm and what he will do next.

Good reporting in Mint by Sumeet Chatterjee about the potential for distress at Reliance Communications.

Ashish Khetan has a great story in Tehelka about the 2G scandal.

India is chipping away on removing visa restrictions.

Remya Nair and Surabhi Agarwal in Mint on post offices selling insurance products. Also see.

Why does China have a SOB-dominated financial system while India has a market-dominated financial system? Writing on Project
Syndicate, Mark Roe has a clue.

A great lecture by Stan Fischer at the RBI.

Why I write, by George Orwell.

Felicity Barringer looks back at Chernobyl.

The revolutions of the Arab world are endlessly fascinating. Read Volcano of Rage by Max Rodenbeck and The revolution is not yet over by Yasmine El Rashidi on the New York Review of Books blog. On Libya: Omar Ashour on Project Syndicate.

Yuriko Koike on Project Syndicate, on the evolution of production chains in Asia. The end of China’s cheap denim dream by Malcolm Moore in the Telegraph. Michael Pettis on the prospect of shorting a country that has $3 trillion in reserves.

Dubai on empty by A. A. Gill in Vanity Fair.

Football betting is a good place to measure the extent of wisdom of the crowd. In a paper titled Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting, Karen Croxson and J. James Reade argue: In an efficient market, news is incorporated into prices rapidly and completely. Attempts to test for this in financial markets have been undermined by the possibility of information leakage unobserved by the econometrician…. sports betting markets offer a superior way forward: assets have terminal values and news can break remarkably cleanly, as when a goal is scored in soccer. We exploit this context to test for efficiency, applying a novel identification strategy to high-frequency data. On our evidence, prices update swiftly and fully.

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Interesting readings

One of the important mistakes that India is making, in terms of integration into the world economy, is in visa rules. A key element
of progress there is the new `Visa on Demand’ program, which has now been expanded. The list of lucky countries now stands at: Japan, Singapore, Finland, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Philippines. This needs to now cover the G-20 countries. Another big frontier is setting up convenient access to work visas in order to support the burgeoning need for skilled foreigners who are needed in the Indian labour force.

Russell K. Nieli on the power of meritocracy as seen in Caltech. The IITs are similar to Caltech in two respects: No concern for how
`well rounded’ the background of an applicant is, and no concern in the admissions process for parentage or donations. The IITs do
care about caste to some extent in the admissions process, while Caltech cares about nothing other than brainpower.

Materials of the 2010 Neemrana conference organised by NCAER, NBER and ICRIER.

Sigh. Building a clean environment is hard!

Materials from the recent IGIDR finance conference.

Annie Lowrey on Slate on the role of prizes in public funding for research.

Mobis Philipose on competition against Nifty options at NSE by Nifty options at SGX, and on the problem of transaction taxes and exchange competition.

A household survey by CMIE tells us something about how ordinary households see the debate about the Bimal Jalan committee.

Sindhu Bhattacharya has an article in DNA about foreign airlines who are being prevented from operating in India. We need
a treaty framework that would render such things unlawful.

A. D. Miller in the Guardian on why Western authors like Mother Russia.

Interesting developments in the freedom of speech.

I guess they noticed that if you take the first word on every seventeenth page, it spells out “Death to the Shah”. That’s nothing, I have a blog that is banned in China!

A great story about how grain and oil led to the collapse of the USSR. By Yegor Gaidar.

Joe Keohane on boston.com on the odd feature of forecasting: The guy who gets the huge event right is often likely to fare badly in
ordinary times.

Lant Pritchett says that the notion of an `ethics code’ for economists is a silly idea.