Falling Oil Prices Offer Great Stock Buying Opportunities: Byron King

The “experts” had been talking about oil prices going to $130 per barrel. Now there’s talk of $50–60 per barrel oil. Either end of that spectrum is not sustainable in the long run, says Byron King. In this exclusive interview with The Energy Report, he explains why he believes prices will settle in . . . → Read More: Falling Oil Prices Offer Great Stock Buying Opportunities: Byron King

The inflation crisis has not ended

The most important measure of inflation in India is the year-on-year change of the CPI-IW index. This time series, for 120 months, is shown above. From 2006 onwards, India slipped into a new phase of macroeconomic instability, where inflation has strayed far outside the informal target zone of inflation at four-to-five per cent.

. . . → Read More: The inflation crisis has not ended

Variant Perception: A Primer on the Euro Breakup

You may have already noticed that this one has been going the rounds. The piece is mainly driven by my colleague Jonathan Tepper’s work on the history of currency union breakups and how they work (or don’t).

It is a big piece in its entirety but the different sections can be read as standalone arguments. . . . → Read More: Variant Perception: A Primer on the Euro Breakup

How to decontrol the price of oil

We know a lot about price controls from the field of exchange rates. Here’s an argument from way back, in 1998:

When change comes to a stabilised currency, as it must, that change is painful. Change in the long term is inevitable. The random walk doles out a little change every day, which is . . . → Read More: How to decontrol the price of oil

Edward Karr Sees Opportunities in Gold: Under the Mattress and in the Ground

According to Edward Karr, CEO of RAMPartners, the band is tuning up and the guests are just starting to arrive. Instead of selling before the party really gets going, he advises keeping a “decent percentage” of cash to take advantage of opportunities to buy both physical gold and junior mining stocks. His real . . . → Read More: Edward Karr Sees Opportunities in Gold: Under the Mattress and in the Ground

Three new papers

The first is an entry titled India which is forthcoming in Elseviers Encyclopaedia of Financial Globalisation, edited by Gerard Caprio. It’s our attempt at a bird’s eye view of what is known, and not known, about India’s financial globalisation.

The second is a treatment of exchange rates and monetary policy and inflation. There are . . . → Read More: Three New Papers

First 2011 Business Headlines Mostly Merry

Facebook, the popular social networking site, has raised $500 million from Goldman Sachs and a Russian investor in a deal that values the company at $50 billion.

China’s manufacturing activity eased slightly in December, although it remained in expansion mode, according to a survey of the country’s purchasing managers.

In response, Asian stock markets . . . → Read More: First 2011 Business Headlines Mostly Merry

Big Mac Index

Each year The Economist magazine publishes one of my favorite economic indicators – the Big Mac Index. This year The Economist said,

Our Big Mac index, based on the theory of purchasing-power parity, in which exchange rates should equalise the price of a basket of goods across countries, suggests that the yuan is 49% . . . → Read More: Big Mac Index

Currency Conflicts Come to Prominence Again

From the mid 1990s onwards, the US trade balance has steadily become bigger. This is a centrepiece of the problem of `global imbalances’. Starting from values of roughly zero, this got all the way to values like $70 billion a month, where the US was importing over $2 billion a day of capital to . . . → Read More: Currency Conflicts Come to Prominence Again

Is There a Problem With Rupee Appreciation?

There is a lot of talk about capital inflows, rupee appreciation, concerns about export competitiveness, etc. It made me pull up the data to look at what is going on. The graph shows the nominal and real effective exchange rate of the rupee. The source is the BIS: the best computation of these indexes . . . → Read More: Is There a Problem With Rupee Appreciation?