How to decontrol the price of oil

We know a lot about price controls from the field of exchange rates. Here’s an argument from way back, in 1998:

When change comes to a stabilised currency, as it must, that change is painful. Change in the long term is inevitable. The random walk doles out a little change every day, which is less painful than sudden large changes.

Currencies which are random walks yield a deeper sort of stability. The steady pace of small changes every day generates realistic expectations about currency risk and continual realignment in production processes in the economy. It avoids sudden changes, and keeps the currency out of the domain of politics. The random walk regime is sustainable without incurring serious distortions in the economy.

In the field of exchange rates, India understood these arguments, and moved to a floating exchange rate. In March 2007, the INR/USD volatility moved up to roughly 9% and from early 2009 onwards, RBI stopped trading in the currency market. This was the biggest achievement of the UPA in economic reforms: In the 2007-2009 period, we got to a market determined rate on the most important price of the economy.

These same ideas are useful in thinking about the price of petrol. A large jump of Rs.1.8 per litre attracts attention. It is far better to let the price fluctuate every day. Ultimately, the price has to adjust. We suffer a lower political cost by letting it adjust every day (through the depoliticised market process). If we bottle up the small changes, then we have to make large changes. These are a bad use of political capital.

Edward Karr Sees Opportunities in Gold: Under the Mattress and in the Ground

Edward Karr According to Edward Karr, CEO of RAMPartners, the band is tuning up and the guests are just starting to arrive. Instead of selling before the party really gets going, he advises keeping a “decent percentage” of cash to take advantage of opportunities to buy both physical gold and junior mining stocks. His real bottom-line advice in this exclusive Gold Report interview? Tap into what makes you happy in life.

The Gold Report: RAMPartners is based in Geneva, Switzerland, a country that made economic news a month ago when the Swiss National Bank capped the Swiss franc at 1.20 francs per euro, slashed interest rates and flooded the market with Swiss francs. Did you agree with those moves and what impact do you think they had on the gold price?

Edward Karr: I emphatically disagree with the move by the Swiss National Bank. To me it makes no sense to peg the Swiss franc at 1.20 to the euro. Switzerland is, in effect, backstopping Greece and all of the other indebted countries in Europe. This is lunacy. Greece or anyone can just hit the Swiss National Bank’s bid at 1.20 and convert into Swiss francs, which it would probably rather have than its euro position.

Since this policy, we’ve seen a psychological shift in markets. People have been rethinking the Swiss franc as a safe-haven currency. The Norwegian kroner looks more like a safe-haven currency now than the Swiss franc. I’m just happy Switzerland is not part of the European Union and not part of the euro. I hope it will understand the foolishness of the 1.20 peg and get rid of it soon.

As to the current effect on the gold price, right around when this happened gold topped and started to sell off. I don’t think they are directly related, but I think it is psychological. If the Swiss franc holds at 1.20 to the euro, if a hedge fund or a corporation hits the Swiss National Bank with a billion euros, it is no big deal. But what about 10 billion, 100 billion, even a trillion? Then it starts becoming a big deal. At some point does Switzerland have to start selling its gold reserves to continue this lunacy? Switzerland now has 1,146 tons of gold. Maybe people are worried that if that gold starts to come out it could put downward pressure on the bullion price; hence, we have seen a little sell off in the overall market.

TGR: Just a few years ago, the Swiss Central Bank had more than 2,000 tons of gold in its reserves. What is your view on the sale of so much of its reserves?

EK: I think it was extremely shortsighted. Switzerland has a long history of fiscal stability and gold has been a very important part of that stability.

Right now, Switzerland has the world’s eighth largest gold reserve, which is quite impressive for such a small country. But, the 1,146 tons of gold it has at current market values is really only about $60 billion. That might seem like a big number, but it is minuscule in comparison to the trillions that global governments are going to have to print to combat this increasing financial crisis.

TRG: Gold has fallen steadily since reaching about $1,900/ounce (oz.) in August. It now sits at about $1,670/oz. Why has it fallen recently?

EK: I think the logical explanation for falling prices is that gold is a relatively liquid asset. Governments, hedge fund managers, bankers and individuals are all facing a severe cash crisis. In that environment you have forced liquidations. Governments are doing all they can to put a positive spin on a terrible environment. But, if you’re a global macro hedge fund manager who has heavy redemptions, you have to sell your liquid assets to raise cash.

Man Investments is one of the biggest hedge fund groups. Last month it announced record redemptions of $7 billion. The firm has to raise cash, so what is it going to do? There are no bids out there for Greek debt, no bids for mortgage-backed securities, no bids for countless other OTC financial derivatives. Gold is liquid; it is easily tradable and has been part of the massive global scramble to cash that we’ve seen in the last two to three months.

TRG: How low could gold go?

EK: That’s a great question. The only credible answer is that gold can go a lot lower than anyone expects. A lot of Johnny-come-latelies have bought into gold in the last few years. A big downdraft will shake out a lot of loose hands.

Europe is on the edge of a cliff. Dexia Bank might fall any day. UniCredit in Italy is right behind. I think we will see a severe domino effect that will make 2008 seem like a walk in the park. If Dexia or UniCredit or the European Central Bank itself had a big major gold position and it had forced liquidation, it will have to sell and the price could go down pretty dramatically.

TRG: Are you willing to be more specific on the price?

EK: It would not surprise me at all if I came in tomorrow and gold was at $1,000/oz., a 60% decline from the current levels. If gold were to fall that dramatically, to $900/oz. or $1,000/oz., it would represent an incredible buying opportunity. That’s when you would want to go all in and buy all you could, because it will snap back like a bungee jump.

When you buy gold, you want to buy it and take physical possession. Owning gold isn’t about the price paid. You shouldn’t look at the price every single day. By the time this crisis is over, it’s going to be about how many ounces you actually have in your possession—under your mattress, in your safe, not in your bank, I hope.

TRG: Your fund holds bullion and junior precious metal equities. How have you changed the way you manage the fund in the midst of this volatility?

EK: We have adjusted our portfolios and we are managing money a little differently. Volatility has certainly increased. In the last month, junior mining stocks are down 40%, 50%. When you get into these high volatility ranges, liquidity drives up as well, delivering a one-two punch. Selling 10,000 or 20,000 shares on a junior mining stock can take it down 25%.

You have to be nimble and you have to be able to stay the course. You don’t want to over-leverage. You want to keep a decent percentage of cash and have some dry gunpowder to take advantage of big sell-off opportunities.

TRG: When I look at my investment portfolio, which consists largely of junior gold explorers, I see nothing but red. I want to sell everything and wait for opportunities. Do you believe that is prudent or do you have better advice?

EK: The investment game is 99% psychological, and it is you against yourself. In my experience, when you feel it is the right time to sell it is exactly the wrong time to sell. I sincerely believe that investors who sell out now are going to miss out on one of the greatest rides of their lives.

Central banks around the world are going to have to put together trillions of dollars. Quantitative Easing (QE) 3 is going to make QE1 and QE2 seem like a little prelude. The Fed is going to have to team up with the European Central Bank and print an incredible amount of money to recapitalize the whole financial system. When they do that, it will set up a moon shot for precious metals and junior mining companies.

This party is just getting started. You can see the house, you can hear the music and see people, but you have not even walked in the front door. Wait for the party; don’t leave before it even begins!

TRG: What are some rules of thumb for investing in junior resource companies during uncertain times?

EK: I like to own good companies with solid management teams and great assets. And then, it all comes down to the timing. The current markets are fantastic for finding attractive entry points. As a general rule, when it feels the worst is usually the best time to buy.

When people get scared, markets and stock prices get way out of line. That is when you need to have the courage to really step in and accumulate. Worst case, if the banks collapse and the ATMs actually do stop working, those who own physical gold will be better off than 99% of the other people out there. But it is more likely that the markets will rebound quickly as QE3 comes in and the ECB and the Fed turbo charge the printing presses. Then, the junior mining stocks and bullion will be off to the races.

TRG: What are some names you have positions in?

EK: I’m quite bullish on Sagebrush Gold Ltd. (SAGE:OTCBB), which trades on over the counter in the U.S. I like the company because it recently acquired a former producing gold mine and mill in Nevada. Nevada is a great jurisdiction; it has rule of law, most of the mines are easily accessible and it has the geology. It is the second most prolific gold zone in the world after the Witwatersrand of South Africa. Sagebrush bought the Relief Canyon mine and its brand-new $30 million (M), state-of-the art facility. It should start production by mid-2012. Relief Canyon currently has a 155 thousand ounce (Koz.) resource and it has an aggressive exploration program on the property right now.

TRG: There are dozens of companies in Nevada. What makes this one different?

EK: A couple of things. Sagebrush has an asset ready to go into production tomorrow. With junior exploration companies that becomes really important. If you have a producing cash-flow asset, you are not as subject to overall market conditions, especially financing, that many junior companies get themselves into. Plus, Sagebrush has strong financial backers including Dr. Philip Frost as a significant shareholder. That gives me a lot of comfort the company will get into production quickly.

Let’s look at the economics of Sagebrush and assume gold holds at $1,500/oz. Sagebrush’s cash costs at Relief Canyon should be about $700/oz. With their 155 Koz. resource, that project could throw off $125M in cash flow over the next two to three years.

And the really exciting part of the Sagebrush story is its very high potential exploration package. The senior exploration geologist is Art Leger, an old hand who has been very successful. I believe he has found upward of 20 million ounces of gold on different crews and discoveries. He came to Sagebrush with a property called Red Rock; a friend who is a legendary natural resource investor told me he felt the Red Rock property was possibly the best exploration address he has ever seen.

Sagebrush’s Red Rock property is surrounded by some of the majors: Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM:NYSE), Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:NYSE; ABX:TSX), Allied Nevada Gold Corp. (ANV:TSX; ANV:NYSE.A) and Paramount Gold and Silver Corp. (PZG:NYSE.A; PZG:TSX). This is prime exploration real estate and Leger thinks there are several world-class deposits on Red Rock. Sagebrush has a RC rig on property right now. It has done extensive geophysical work, defined drill targets and the drill program is underway.

TRG: Is Sagebrush looking to get listed on the TSX Venture or the TSX main board?

EK: I believe so. It is exploring both the TSX and the AMEX in the U.S. I would like to see the company listed on a more major exchange, where it will get increased visibility and liquidity, probably more research and publishing.

There is a further arbitrage opportunity here. Recently, Sagebrush acquired all of the assets of Continental Resources Group Inc. (CRGC:OTCBB). The deal was 0.8 shares of Sagebrush for every share of Continental. I believe the acquisition is still being worked out and the share swap will happen in the next few weeks. So the big opportunity is to buy the shares of Continental. Effectively, you are getting Sagebrush shares at around $0.31 with the current Continental price of $0.25. Sagebrush is in the $0.50 range, so this is like grabbing dollars for $0.60. Warren Buffet recently said he would buy Berkshire all day long for $0.90 on the dollar. By buying Continental, you get Sagebrush for $0.60 on the dollar. Plus Sagebrush acquired Continental’s portfolio of uranium exploration assets. Uranium is currently really beaten up post-Fukushima, but it is not going away longer term. I believe uranium prices will rally back when the cycle turns and patient investors will be well rewarded on this unique play.

TGR: One interesting note with Sagebrush is that it has Debra Struhsacker, an environmental consultant, as part of the management team. That’s unusual. Would you care to comment on that?

EK: Debra is a fantastic addition to the Sagebrush team. Having the foresight to have an environmental consultant in at this early stage of the company’s evolution really shows the management team is very serious and it is looking to move this project into production as fast as possible.

TGR: You talked about having some powder dry for when you’re ready to strike. What striking opportunities do you see in the market at this point?

EK: I like Nevada, as I mentioned. Another location that I really like is Colombia, which I think is setting itself up to be one of the hottest mining destinations of the future. Colombia is doing all of the right things from a political and economic standpoint. It has incredible undiscovered resources.

We’re a shareholder in a new gold exploration company there called Dicon Gold Inc. It is a Canadian company that is currently private. But I understand that it plans an IPO on the TSX in the next couple of months. Dicon has an incredible management team in place. I think this is really going to be one to watch.

TGR: Did you get in at the capital pool level or as a private placement?

EK: It was a private placement. I don’t think it is a capital pool; it is a straight IPO. We just recently participated in a private placement that was a very, very small round. We want to get involved in a much bigger way on the IPO.

TGR: Do you have one more name?

EK: Going back to Nevada, Yukon-Nevada Gold Corp. (TSX:YNG) is a real interesting opportunity. You’re looking at a stock that is $0.37 a share. I just had the management team in my office and I was very impressed with their presentation. The company has $80M in cash and a $300M market cap. It will re-enter production with one of the few roasting facilities in Nevada capable of producing 300 Koz. a year consistently. It has an autoclave in the recovery circuit.

Yukon-Nevada is an incredible buy. From what I understand, a couple of New York City hedge funds that had a substantial position had heavy redemptions. This stock has sold off from $0.80 down to $0.37 in the open market. We are not a shareholder yet, but we are looking to acquire at these levels.

TGR: Edward, can you leave our readers with some sage Karr wisdom that they can lean on in these unprecedented economic times?

EK: I truly believe that we are heading into a very, very challenging time for humanity in general. The ultimate goal in the financial markets is like the ultimate goal in life—to survive. But you also want to be happy and to prosper. You need to keep it all in perspective.

Your readers are in the top 1% of the global population. And if they own physical gold, they may be in the top one-tenth of the top 1%. A lot of people in the world live hand-to-mouth every day and they remain relatively happy.

I think it is really important to tap into that happiness. Take some time out to be grateful for all you have in life. Enjoy time with your friends and with your family. Spend time on what is important to you. Help people who are less fortunate than you are.

At the end of the day, we’re here for a good time, not for a long time. It is important to enjoy the journey each and every day. Don’t get so worried about the downdraft of your gold position or your junior mining stock. Keep it all in perspective.

TGR: Very wise words. Thank you for talking with us today, Edward.

Edward Karr is the founder of RAMPartners SA–an investment management and investment banking firm based in Geneva. Since 2005, RAMPartners has helped raise more than $100 million for small capitalization companies in fields such as natural resources, high technology, health care and clean energy. Prior to founding RAMPartners, Karr worked for a private Swiss asset management, investment banking and trading firm based in Geneva for six years. At the firm, he was responsible for all of the capital market transactions, investment and marketing activities. Prior to moving to Europe, Karr worked for Prudential Securities in the United States and has been in the financial services industry for 20 years. Before his entry into the financial services arena, Karr was affiliated with the United States Antarctic Program and spent 13 consecutive months working in the Antarctic, receiving the Antarctic Service Medal for his contributions of courage, sacrifice and devotion. Karr studied at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University and Lansdowne College in London, England, and received a B.S. in economics/finance with Honors from Southern New Hampshire University. He is a licensed pilot and certified master scuba diver as well as a current board member and vice president of the American International Club of Geneva and co-chairman of Republican’s Abroad Switzerland.

Three new papers

The first is an entry titled India which is forthcoming in Elseviers Encyclopaedia of Financial Globalisation, edited by Gerard
Caprio. It’s our attempt at a bird’s eye view of what is known, and not known, about India’s financial globalisation.

The second is a treatment of exchange rates and monetary policy and inflation. There are two well understood phenomena: the `exchange rate passthrough’ (or how prices in India go up when the rupee depreciates) and the `monetary policy transmission’ (or how prices in India go down when RBI raises rates). This paper views these two in a unified fashion. The main finding is
that the channel through which monetary tightening influences domestic prices is mainly through the consequent exchange rate
appreciation.

The third is about explaining the process of firms becoming multinationals. The conventional story told (the Helpman-Melitz-Yeaple
model) is one where firms self-select themselves to become MNCs, where more efficient firms export and the most efficient firms become MNCs. This story is well suited for manufacturing, where costs of transportation are important, where it’s efficient for an Indian firm to make widgets in the UK so as to avoid the costs of transportation of shipping to the UK. But this story does not help us think about services which are `weightless’. We think we have a story which helps us understand MNCs in services, and when
we go test this with data for Indian software companies, it seems to work. Our approach yields the opposite prediction: that less
productive software companies are more likely to become MNCs.

Our stock of papers is at: http://macrofinance.nipfp.org.in/papers.html.

First 2011 Business Headlines Mostly Merry

Facebook, the popular social networking site, has raised $500 million from Goldman Sachs and a Russian investor in a deal that values the company at $50 billion.

China’s manufacturing activity eased slightly in December, although it remained in expansion mode, according to a survey of the country’s purchasing managers.

In response, Asian stock markets were higher on the first trading day of 2011, with investor confidence boosted by signs that China’s efforts at keeping a lid on inflation may be working.

Singapore’s economy returned to growth in the fourth-quarter as strength in manufacturing helped offset weakness in the construction sector.

The dollar began the New Year on a stronger note against other major currencies in Asia Monday as investors bought the greenback to position for an expected strong reading in US economic data due later in the day.

Loan refinance rates are declining again with Citibank, Chase and Bank of America all lowering their mortgage rates.

And on Monday, we are likely to see a moderately healthy headline number for the ISM Manufacturing Index for December as the new orders index remains on a recent rebound, posting at 56.6 in November, indicating solid month-to-month growth and a sector that continues to lead a recovery that is now 20 months old.



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Big Mac Index

Each year The Economist magazine publishes one of my favorite economic indicators – the Big Mac Index. This year The Economist said,

Our Big Mac index, based on the theory of purchasing-power parity, in which exchange rates should equalise the price of a basket of goods across countries, suggests that the yuan is 49% below its fair-value benchmark with the dollar.

Big-Mac-IndexHere’s the background. First the theory. In a world of freely floating currency exchange rates, those rates will adjust over time so that a commodity costs the same anywhere in the world. This is called purchasing power parity. An example:  Imagine that Brazil finds some way to sell sugar on the global market at a much lower price than everyone else. Right away sugar buyers can buy more sugar with their own currency from Brazil than anywhere else in the world. This will substantially increase Brazil’s exports.

Now, we also know that if a country’s exports increase significantly their currency will increase in value on the international currency market. That is because all these purchases of Brazilian sugar will increase demand for the Brazilian real. As the value of the real rises Brazilian sugar becomes more expensive to foreign buyers – their own, local currency can’t buy as many real as before. At the same time other sugar exporters may see a slight decrease in the value of their currencies, as sugar buyers switch to Brazil. Over time international currency exchange rates will adjust so that a sugar buyer will be able to buy the same amount of sugar anywhere in the world.  That’s the theory of purchasing power parity. We know that currency rates don’t float perfectly, and in some cases countries seek to influence the value of their currencies. Enter the Big Mac Index.

A number of years ago staffers from The Economist decided to test purchasing power parity (PPP). Rather than using a boring commodity like sugar, they looked at Big Macs, from McDonalds. Big Macs are as close to a commodity at the definition allows – virtually identical everywhere. They recorded the price of Big Macs in scores of countries, converted those prices to dollars and tested the PPP theory. The results showed a wide range of prices for Big Macs.

Now, these results could disprove the PPP theory. Instead, The Economist staffers maintained that PPP was true, and that various countries’ currencies were either over-valued or under-valued. Let’s use China as an example. Earlier this year a Big Mac cost $3.58 in the United States, but only $1.83 in China (after converting yuan to dollars). If PPP is true, then China’s currency is under-valued by almost 50 percent. And, in fact, there is considerable angst in the international community about China’s efforts to artificially lower the value of its own currency in order to protect its huge export market and supporting industries.

Economists love to forecast, and yet have a very mixed record of success with their forecasting. The Big Mac Index can be used as a rough forecasting tool. In the March, 2010 article the Euro was 29% over-valued. Over the last six months the Euro has declined in value against the U.S. – just what the Big Mac Index would predict.

Who says economists don’t have fun?

Currency Conflicts Come to Prominence Again

From the mid 1990s onwards, the US trade balance has steadily become bigger. This is a centrepiece of the problem of `global imbalances’. Starting from values of roughly zero, this got all the way to values like $70 billion a month, where the US was importing over $2 billion a day of capital to pay for the trade deficit. Here’s the picture:

US Trade Balance
The US trade balance (goods+services, per month, seasonally adjusted)

This was termed as the `Bretton Woods II’ configuration, where exporting countries like China gave loans to the US, in a form of suppliers’ credit, and the US bought Chinese goods. This magnitude of capital import was unsustainable for the US. Something had to give.

Warning for Indian readers: In India, the term `trade balance’ pertains only to merchandise trade. In the US, the monthly trade data covers both goods and services. So it is a meaningful measure of what is going on in international trade, unlike the corresponding Indian data.
Bretton Woods II first broke down in the financial crisis. In the downturn, the mighty American consumer purchased fewer 50″ television sets. The US trade deficit dropped nicely all the way to $25 billion per month. Alongside a rise in the US savings rate, this looked like a world which was rebalancing.  In recent months, this movement reversed itself and the US trade deficit once again started getting worse.   A deterioration of $20 billion per month is visible; i.e. a deterioration of $240 billion a year. Suddenly, the story of global imbalances righting themselves came under question. The present US run rate is around $40 billion a month or $0.5 trillion a year.
Alongside this, we have news that the Chinese reserves rose by $194 billion in Q3 2010. The Chinese seem to have also passed on some of their problems of exchange rate pegging upon their neighbours by purchasing Japanese, South Korean and Indonesian assets. I am not aware of such behaviour having been observed prior to this in human history. Japan, South Korea and Indonesia have taken unkindly to this behaviour. Given the opacity of the Chinese regime, one can’t help wonder if similar things are going on through less visible channels – e.g. a Chinese sovereign wealth fund buys $10 billion of OTC derivatives on Nifty.
So we seem to be headed for quite some escalation of conflict over the Chinese exchange rate regime. Here are some interesting readings on the subject:

Is There a Problem With Rupee Appreciation?

There is a lot of talk about capital inflows, rupee appreciation, concerns about export competitiveness, etc. It made me pull up the data to look at what is going on. The graph shows the nominal and real effective exchange rate of the rupee. The source is the BIS: the best computation of these indexes presently available.

Real and Nominal effective exchange rate of the Indian Rupee

There is one constraint of this data: it ends in August. The picture shown there is rather benign. Over the five year period shown in the graph, modest REER fluctuations are visible. Over the recent period of roughly a year, where RBI intervention has subsided, it isn’t clear that something dramatic shifted.

And, I like to always remind everyone that the REER is a rather weak way to think about export competitiveness, so even if there was a sharp rise in the REER, we’d have to be cautious in rushing to conclusions about what it is saying.

The people making the case for currency trading by RBI have to cross four hurdles:

  1. Is there a crisis on export competitiveness that is rooted in exchange rate misalignment?
  2. How can controlling nominal things (the exchange rate) influence real things (the real rate)?
  3. Given a choice of using the tool of monetary policy for the purpose of delivering low and stable inflation (which benefits every citizen of India), versus the purpose of delivering some modification of the nominal exchange rate (which benefits a sectarian interest at best), what is the best choice?
  4. How can RBI be held accountable to maximise the interests of the people of India, if it is to do active trading on the currency market? What checks and balances, and what accountability mechanisms, need to be put into place in order to run a trading room in the government sector?
It is not so long ago (until early 2007) that RBI was actively trading in the currency market, championing the cause of India’s exporters, and we saw how much trouble it got them in. In some ways, our inflation crisis today is the legacy of the unprecedented credit boom of the Y V Reddy years. Today’s India is only more open than the India where Y V Reddy’s regime tripped up on currency trading, so the challenges in embarking on that path today are even more daunting.

China’s Growth Model

According to some preliminary estimates (link), China’s trade balance is on the course for a significant surplus this year. IMF’s annual forecast of current account balance predicted China’s trade surplus at $334 billion in 2010 or roughly 6.2 percent of China’s GDP. The IMF’s medium-term forecast suggests a growing trade surplus by 2015 when the surplus is estimated at a little more than 8 percent of GDP.

Recently, Dani Rodrik questioned (link) the persistence of China’s mercantilism based on persistently low exchange rate. The partial fixation of the exchange rate then stimulates export-led growth model and, consequently, results in a large trade surplus which translates into foreign exchange reserves, thus enabling China’s central bank to foster exchange rate intervention to defended the targeted yuan exchange rate against the U.S dollar. The implications of China’s growth model extend beyond the scope of effects on country’s economic growth, investment and current account balance. China’s export-led growth model has tremendously affected the macroeconomic performance of developing nations. The exports of developing nations in the European, Japanese and U.S markets basically substitute, not complement, China’s exports to the markets of advanced countries. The persistent lack of the appreciation of renmimbi thus forced the economic policymakers of other developing nations to either adopt the same model of exchange rate intervention or lose the export share in developing countries. This intuition is underlined by the theoretical and empirical support.

In 2007, Hausmann, Hwang and Rodrik demonstated (link) that the pattern of specialization by developing countries predicts the subsequent economic growth, suggesting that the share of exports in advanced countries is highly positively correlated with the rates of economic growth. If China shifted the main source of economic growth from export-led model to domestic consumption, the renmimbi would have to appreciate considerably. Contrary to the assertion that China’s exchange rate undervaluation hampers the economic growth, industrialization and development prospects of developing nations, the OECD recently stated that developing countries would be hurt significantly if the renmimbi exchange rate were allowed to appreciate. There is also an empirical support for the particular assertion. The OECD recently estimated (link) that, if China’s output grew by 1 percentage point, the output of developing countries would decrease by 0.3 percentage point.

The empirics supports the argument I mentioned earlier – China’s exchange rate misalignment inevitably hinders the growth prospects and industrialization of developing countries. The essential question in the course of economic development is what is the best model of growth for developing countries to boost industrialization and development frontiers.

One possibility is the so called surplus model. Historically, growth models of low-income countries were primarily based on exporting natural resources to the rest of the world. Countries such as oil-rich gulf states, Botswana and Argentina became wealthy. Such growth model heavily depends on export demand in other countries. The most notable failure of this growth model is that it doesn’t encourage the diversification of economic activity. Thus, countries such as Libya have sustained relatively high levels of GDP but, at the same time, rather depressing domestic indicators. For instance, Libya’s GDP per capita is at almost the same level as Chile’s GDP per capita, but Libya’s unemployment rate is 30 percent – almost three times the average unemployment rate in countries with the same level of GDP per capita. When foreign demand deteriorates, these countries experience the Dutch disease – an overheating economic activity and overvalued exchange rates that discourage investment, entrepreneurship and typically result in higher unemployment rates.

Industrialization and economic development mostly depend on domestic structural change based on the adopting the institutions of macroeconomic stabilization and the rule of law. China’s exchange rate policy of renmimbi undervaluation is a failed temporary growth model that is set on the unsustainable course. Without shifting the major engine of growth from export-boosting exchange rate undervaluation to consumption-based growth, Chinese economy will no longer be able to sustain high productivity growth rates. Letting the renmimbi appreciate by free floating could significantly boost the potential for institutional change in China and other developing nations. Therefore, the systemic abuse of macroeconomic policy by exchange rate undervaluation would no longer be feasible and the costs of failed exchange rate regime for developing countries would diminish substantially.

Interesting Readings for July 16, 2010

The top selling Indian newspapers according to Amazon’s kindle subscriptions.

India’s courts may be in a slow process of reshaping India into a liberal democracy. Here is a Supreme Court ruling which blocks the Maharasthra government from interfering with the rights of a citizen to read a certain book. Sadly, it was done on a technicality.

Manish Sabharwal in the Financial Express on an important new initiative of the Ministry of Labour.Eric Bellman in the Wall Street Journal on the rise of Madras in automobile manufacturing. There is much strength there in electronics manufacturing also.

Dhiraj Nayyar in the Indian Express on the interfaces between mobile telephony and banking. [also see].

Kerala is Number 1 by Mahesh Vyas in the Business Standard.

On the difficulties of ULIPs and the recent ordinance, see Dhirendra Kumar in the Financial Express.

A story by Steve Lohr and John Markoff in the New York Times suggests that low end outsourcing to India could be under attack from new technology.

B. S. Raghavan in the Hindu Business Line on inflation targeting at RBI.

Hindustan Times and Mint have built an interesting new web page : The Indian innovation revolution.

We in India are very convinced that it is good to have a world where every single individual is numbered and trackable. But there are many nice things about anonymity and the creation of anonymous personas. See this story of Why, a person who did some amazing things anonymously, and then shut down this life when it looked like his anonymity was under threat. The idea of being able to create and live multiple anonymous invented personas has long been a meme in the hackish community – e.g. see True names by Vernor Vinge.

An interesting interview by Samir Sachdeva with Nandan Nilekani in Governance NOW magazine.

As I read Lose a general, win a war by Thomas E. Ricks in the New York Times, I was struck by this remarkable flexibility of labour contracts, which must work wonders for shaping incentives correctly.

Tarun Ramadorai on empirical analysis of the efforts at banning short selling of recent years.

David Friedman has released a free pdf of the 2nd edition of his important book The machinery of freedom. Hmm, that’s a good strategy: authors should open source edition $n$ when they start on edition $n+1$. Also see: a surge in interest in Friedrich von Hayek’s The road to serfdom.

Ruuel Marc Gerecht has some interesting ideas in the New York Times on the use of information technology to assist the resistance in Iran. I wonder if similar ideas can be deployed on the problems of China as well.

Tom Wright has an article in the Wall Street Journal about Zeeshan-ul-hassan Usmani, a Pakistani scientist working on explosions and suicide bombings. Also see Pervez Hoodbhoy on Pakistan’s existential problems.

Calzolari, Levi, Navaretti, Pozzolo, writing on voxEU, show that multinational banks were a source of stability in the crisis. Also see Internal capital markets and lending by multinational bank subsidiaries by de Haas and van Lelyveld, in the Journal of Financial Intermediation.

Ila Patnaik on the Chinese exchange rate regime and its implications for India.

Inflation targeting turns 20 by Scott Roger, in Finance & Development, March 2010.

Edward Glaeser reviews a book by Joel Mokyr on what made the industrial revolution. It makes you think about the nascent capitalism that we see in India.

The top
selling Indian newspapers according to Amazon’s kindle subscriptions.

India’s courts may be in a slow process of reshaping India into a
liberal democracy. Here is
a Supreme
Court ruling which blocks the Maharasthra government from
interfering with the rights of a citizen to read a certain
book. Sadly, it was done on a technicality.

Manish
Sabharwal in the Financial Express on an important new
initiative of the Ministry of Labour.

Eric
Bellman in the Wall Street Journal on the rise of
Madras in automobile manufacturing. There is much strength there in
electronics manufacturing also.

Dhiraj
Nayyar in the Indian Express on the interfaces between
mobile telephony and
banking. [also
see].

Kerala
is Number 1 by Mahesh Vyas in the Business Standard.

On
the difficulties
of ULIPs and the recent ordinance,
see Dhirendra
Kumar in the Financial Express.

A
story by Steve Lohr and John Markoff in the New York
Times suggests that low end outsourcing to India could be
under attack from new technology.

B. S. Raghavan
in the Hindu Business Line on inflation targeting at RBI.

Hindustan Times and Mint have built an interesting
new web page
: The
Indian innovation revolution.

We in India are very convinced that it is good to have a world
where every single individual is numbered and trackeable. But there
are many nice things about anonymity and the creation of anonymous
personas. See this
story of _Why, a person who did some amazing things anonymously,
and then shut down this life when it looked like his anonymity was
under threat. The idea of being able to create and live multiple
anonymous invented personas has long been a meme in the hackish
community – e.g. see
True
names by Vernor Vinge.

An
interesting interview
by Samir Sachdeva with Nandan Nilekani in Governance NOW
magazine.

As I
read Lose
a general, win a war by Thomas E. Ricks in the New York
Times, I was struck by this remarkable flexibility of labour
contracts, which must work wonders for shaping incentives
correctly.

Tarun
Ramadorai on empirical analyses of the efforts at banning
short selling of recent years.

David Friedman
has released
a free pdf of the 2nd edition of his important
book The
machinery of freedom. Hmm, that’s a good strategy: authors
should open source edition $n$ when they start on edition
$n+1$. Also
see: a
surge in interest in Friedrich von Hayek’s The road to serfdom.

Ruuel
Marc Gerecht has some interesting ideas in the New York
Times on the use of information technology to assist the
resistance in Iran. I wonder if similar ideas can be deployed on the
problems of China as well.

Tom
Wright has an article in the Wall Street Journal about
Zeeshan-ul-hassan Usmani, a Pakistani scientist working on
explosions and suicide bombings. Also
see Pervez
Hoodbhoy on Pakistan’s existential problems.

Calzolari,
Levi, Navaretti, Pozzolo, writing on voxEU, show that
multinational banks were a source of stability in the crisis. Also
see Internal
capital markets and lending by multinational bank
subsidiaries by de Haas and van Lelyveld, in the Journal
of Financial Intermediation.

Ila
Patnaik on the Chinese exchange rate regime and its
implications for India.

Inflation
targeting turns 20 by Scott Roger, in Finance &
Development, March 2010.

Edward
Glaeser reviews a book by Joel Mokyr on what made the
industrial revolution. It makes you think about the nascent
capitalism that we see in India.

Anyone interested in the world of the Internet and computer
technology must read:

The State of the Internet Operating
System by Time
O’Reilly: part
1
and part
2.

John Naughton in the Guardian.

Clive
Thompson in the New York Times on IBM’s computer that
plays `Jeopardy’.

What’s
the greatest software ever written? by Charles Babcock,
in Information Week

The
Steve Lohr and John Markoff story about speech recognition, and
system-building around it, mentioned above.

Risk On

Someone tried to make the point that the making the Yuan more flexible was already “priced in”; well it might be of course, but so far markets are bathing in serious risk on mode. Copper futures up some 4.5%, AUD/USD at 0.88ish and I could go on and on …

Enjoy it while it lasts …

(quote Bloomberg)

Asia shares rose the most in almost seven months, U.S. and European stock index futures climbed and commodities advanced after China signaled it will relax the yuan’s fixed rate to the dollar. Treasuries fell.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rallied 2.8 percent to a six- week high of 119.42 at 3:15 p.m. in Tokyo. Futures for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index climbed 1.7 percent and those for the Euro Stoxx 50 added 1.6 percent. Oil increased 2 percent to $78.77 a barrel and copper jumped 4.3 percent. The yuan appreciated the most in 20 months versus the dollar. U.S. Treasury 10-year notes fell for a second day. The People’s Bank of China said it will end a two-year currency peg adopted during the global financial crisis to protect exporters, in a sign policy makers see the world economy strengthening. Commodity and industrial companies lead gains in Asian stocks on optimism for increased sales in the world’s third-largest economy.

“It’s a vote of confidence in Asia and in risk appetite and a reduction in the dangers of a trade war,” said Sean Callow, a currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “The currencies of Asian nations, which are close competitors with China on the trade front, should do well.” The MSCI Asia index climbed the most since Nov. 30. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average jumped 2.4 percent and the Hang Seng Index rallied 2.8 percent to lead all regional benchmarks. Australia’s S&P ASX/200 Index advanced 1.4 percent and South Korea’s Kospi Index gained 1.5 percent.