Time Unlikely to be a Healer for Portugal's Economy

In a strict sense, the answer to this question has to be no and indeed the most recent turn of events have put Spain back in the spotlight much to the chagrin no doubt of the EU and IMF. Simply put, Portugal is manageable but Spain may turn out not to be. In this . . . → Read More: Time Unlikely to be a Healer for Portugal’s Economy

Other Alpha Sources

1. Variant Perception’s blog is up and running and while I realise there has been little or no macroeconomic analysis here for a while, there is plenty of top notch analysis over at VP’s blog. The three latest entries take a look at inflation in the UK, the divergence between Spain and Italy in sticking . . . → Read More: Other Alpha Sources

Gold Far From Bubble Phase: Marc Faber

With more than 40 years as an economist to his credit and claiming gold as the “biggest position in my life,” Gloom Boom & Doom Report Publisher Marc Faber assures us that gold is nowhere near a bubble phase, but cautions that corrections of 40% are not unusual in a bull market. At . . . → Read More: Gold Far From Bubble Phase: Marc Faber

Variant Perception: A Primer on the Euro Breakup

You may have already noticed that this one has been going the rounds. The piece is mainly driven by my colleague Jonathan Tepper’s work on the history of currency union breakups and how they work (or don’t).

It is a big piece in its entirety but the different sections can be read as standalone arguments. . . . → Read More: Variant Perception: A Primer on the Euro Breakup

Austerity and Reality

Paul Krugman still doesn’t get it:

Watching Europe sink into recession – and Greece plunge into the abyss – I found myself wondering what it would take to convince the chattering classes that austerity in the face of an already depressed economy is a terrible idea.

After all, all it took was the predictable . . . → Read More: Austerity and Reality

Global Monetary Relief from Asia

The ECB and BOE have shown their intent with their recent aggressive balance sheet expansions and the Fed is trying hard to keep the door open for more QE even as the data in the US continues to defy the general global slowdown.

In Asia however sticky inflation in India, a desire to nail . . . → Read More: Global Monetary Relief from Asia

Italian banks pawning $976m of gold with Scotiabank?

In January FT Alphaville’s Izabella noted that “Negative rates imply that banks are pawning gold in exchange for dollars. A move which happens to depress gold prices. But it’s always been difficult to establish who was pawning what and when, and how prevalent the practice really was.”

She quoted Goldman Sachs who thought “this . . . → Read More: Italian banks pawning $976m of gold with Scotiabank?

Other Alpha Sources

I have been enjoying myself in the Austrian Alps last week and hence the lower output. Here is my look though, of a number of notable news stories and contributions.

Global Liquidity

Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB has penned a speech (and argument) on global (excess) liquidity. Izabella likes . . . → Read More: Other Alpha Sources for February 13, 2012

Gold Juniors Poised to Rebound: Joe Mazumdar

Economics and politics. Accretion and repletion. Mergers and acquisitions. Joe Mazumdar, senior mining analyst with Haywood Securities, sees all of these as catalysts for a rebound in the junior gold space in 2012. In this exclusive Gold Report interview, he reveals the names of companies he expects to take off.

The Gold Report: . . . → Read More: Gold Juniors Poised to Rebound: Joe Mazumdar

First Act of Greek Default Proceedings Drawing to a Close

Global stock markets are up about 10% since the beginning of the year, volatility has collapsed, US economic data continue to defy even the mild slowdown proponents and the ECB seems to have backstopped the European banking system.

Yes, my dear reader. This is how quickly you move from away from the apocalyptic abyss . . . → Read More: First Act of Greek Default Proceedings Drawing to a Close