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	<title>Citizen Economists &#187; Euro</title>
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	<link>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs</link>
	<description>Citizen Economists is an online economics magazine written by citizen journalists. These ordinary citizens provide reports and commentary on the current events affecting the economics of the fields they work in.</description>
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		<title>The Swiss Hammer</title>
		<link>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2011/09/06/the-swiss-hammer/</link>
		<comments>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2011/09/06/the-swiss-hammer/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Sep 2011 14:10:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Claus Vistesen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currency rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Euro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Switzerland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trading]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/?p=9024</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[ <p>The cage fight between the SNB and FX speculators continue with the most recent round seeing the SNB coming out fists flying aiming for a knock-out.</p> <p>Quote Bloomberg</p> <p>The Swiss central bank said it’s setting a minimum franc exchange against the euro and will defend the target with the “utmost determination” if needed.The <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2011/09/06/the-swiss-hammer/">The Swiss Hammer</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>
<p><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-06/swiss-national-bank-sets-minimum-exchange-rate-of-1-20-against-the-euro.html">The cage fight between the SNB and FX speculators continue</a> with the most recent round seeing the SNB coming out fists flying aiming for a knock-out.</p>
<p><em>Quote Bloomberg</em></p>
<blockquote><p>The Swiss central bank said it’s setting a minimum franc exchange  against the euro and will defend the target with the “utmost  determination” if needed.The Swiss National Bank is “aiming for a  substantial and sustained weakening of the franc,” the Zurich-based bank  said in an e-mailed statement today. “With immediate effect, it will no  longer tolerate a euro-franc exchange rate below the minimum rate of  1.20 francs” and “is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited  quantities.”</p></blockquote>
<p>And the result, cold steel for the long swissies.</p>
<p><span><span> </span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bl9_dKR3QRM/TmXfK04fOlI/AAAAAAAACGM/V4u8CPp8dHs/s1600/sg2011090634635.gif"><img src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bl9_dKR3QRM/TmXfK04fOlI/AAAAAAAACGM/V4u8CPp8dHs/s320/sg2011090634635.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1315299355263" alt="" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">
<p style="text-align: left;">For now &#8230;</p>
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		<title>Ian Gordon: Gold Stocks Offer Protection from Financial Storm</title>
		<link>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2011/05/25/ian-gordon-gold-stocks-offer-protection-from-financial-storm/</link>
		<comments>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2011/05/25/ian-gordon-gold-stocks-offer-protection-from-financial-storm/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 May 2011 19:20:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>The Gold Report</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic cycles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Euro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fiat currency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold standard]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stock market]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/?p=7797</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p> Economic cycles, like weather, run in seasons. Longwave Group Founder Ian Gordon explains why he believes the world economy is in the &#8220;winter&#8221; portion of an approximate 80-year cycle and how the financial excesses of the past 60 years are now being wrung out of the system. Ian also explains how investors can <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2011/05/25/ian-gordon-gold-stocks-offer-protection-from-financial-storm/">Ian Gordon: Gold Stocks Offer Protection from Financial Storm</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://www.streetwisereports.com/images/Ian_Gordon_rev.jpg" alt="Ian Gordon" hspace="10" align="left" /> Economic cycles, like weather, run in seasons. Longwave Group Founder  Ian Gordon explains why he believes the world economy is in the &#8220;winter&#8221;  portion of an approximate 80-year cycle and how the financial excesses  of the past 60 years are now being wrung out of the system. Ian also  explains how investors can prepare to profit from the coming financial  storm by positioning themselves in gold and junior gold stocks in this  exclusive interview with <em>The Gold Report.</em></p>
<p><strong><em>The Gold Report: </em></strong>Good morning Ian. Thanks for taking the  time to bring us up to date with your current thoughts about the  economic situation and on specific companies you think our readers might  be interested in learning about today. When you spoke with <a href="http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/8218" target="_blank"><em>The Gold Report</em></a> in January, you expressed your thoughts on where things were headed.  Can you give us an idea of what you think people should do with their  financial investments now in order to protect their assets? What changes  do you see, and what do you think now in light of what&#8217;s happened since  January?</p>
<p><strong>Ian Gordon: </strong>I think things are actually getting  worse. Basically, the currencies of the world are under fire right now.  I&#8217;m not sure that the euro will even survive this year. All it will take  will be one country, like Greece, to leave it, and then the whole thing  will probably collapse like a house of cards. Of course, the U.S.  dollar, as the reserve currency, has been under fire, as well. So, I  think things are coming to a head here, which is something we  anticipated in our own work because it&#8217;s based on the <a href="http://www.longwavegroup.com/principle.php" target="_blank">Long (Kondratiev) Wave Theory</a>.</p>
<p>In  2011, we see parallels to 1931 because we&#8217;re 80 years beyond that time.  We believe 20-year cycles are important anniversaries, and this is just  four twenties. In 1931, the whole world monetary system effectively  collapsed. We&#8217;ve been long anticipating a collapse in the current world  monetary system based on the collapse of 1931. However, we see that the  current collapse is going to have far more significant and devastating  implications than the collapse between 1931 and 1933 simply because it&#8217;s  the collapse of the paper-money system now. Essentially, paper money is  credit money. When paper money fails, credit fails. Effectively, the  economy will fail on credit.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> So, given what could be  a major upheaval in the way the global economic cycle works, if this  all comes to pass, what sort of system will we end up with? Are we going  back to the gold standard or something similar to it? How is this going  to happen, how long is it going to take and what are the implications  for investors?</p>
<p><strong>IG:</strong> I&#8217;m pretty sure that we will go back to  a gold standard system. Paper-money systems have never survived  throughout history. Generally, they&#8217;ve been set around a one-country  experiment. And when those have failed, as in France after <a href="http://mshistory.k12.ms.us/articles/70/john-law-and-the-mississippi-bubble-1718-1720" target="_blank">John Law&#8217;s paper-money scheme</a> failed in 1720 or the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assignat" target="_blank">Assignat</a> failed in about 1798, there was tremendous upheaval. And, following  these failures, the country resumed gold as the backing for its  currency. So, I think we have to go back to something like that because,  in essence, gold enforces discipline on governments. We&#8217;ve seen a  complete lack of discipline in the paper-money system that&#8217;s been  ongoing since the 1931 collapse of the world monetary system.  Paper-money printing has just gotten out of control; and now, parallel  to the paper-money printing is the debt. They go hand in hand.</p>
<p>We&#8217;ve  built massive debt worldwide, which, in total, is probably well in  excess of $100 trillion. In the U.S. alone, the total debt is something  like $57 trillion. So, that debt is starting to be wrung out of the  world&#8217;s economies and everybody is facing a pretty frightening  depression.</p>
<p>As investors, we have to protect ourselves as best  we can. We&#8217;ve long been advocating positions in gold and gold stocks. In  fact, we&#8217;ve been 100% positioned in both of those—physical and gold  stocks—since 2000 because our cycle told us that that&#8217;s where we should  put our assets. So, that&#8217;s what we&#8217;ve done. I think investors have to do  that and they have to be out of the general stock market because,  eventually, the stock market has to reflect the realities of the  economy. The current U.S. stock market has been propped up by  quantitative easing (QE) with massive amounts of money injected into the  banking system. That banking system is not putting that money back into  the economy because consumers are completely tapped out; they can&#8217;t  borrow any more money. So, much of the money the Federal Reserve is  putting into the banks is being used for speculation.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> Can we pursue the mechanics of this a bit further before we get into  more-specific investing ideas? Given the internationalization of the  world economy and money being just electronic numbers on computer  systems, how does the world get back on some sort of a hard-money  standard without years of turmoil?</p>
<p><strong>IG:</strong> When the global monetary system started to collapse in 1931, it began with the failure of the Austrian <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creditanstalt" target="_blank">Creditanstalt</a> Bank in Europe. Everyone was trying to bail out this large bank. The  Fed was trying to bail it out, the Bank of England was trying to bail it  out and JP Morgan also was in there trying to bail it out. They all  knew the implications of the failure of this one bank would cause the  bankruptcy of Austria and the failure of many other banks plagued with  rotten paper money on their books. So, when this bank collapsed in May  1931, it was the beginning of the end of the world monetary system. A  bankrupted Austria was forced out of the gold exchange standard system  and was soon followed by Germany. Great Britain was forced out of the  monetary system in September 1931, which effectively brought down the  entire world monetary system. A new monetary system didn&#8217;t evolve until  1944 when the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system" target="_blank">Bretton Woods system</a> was signed into law. It was a long hiatus. The parallels with the  current evolving monetary system collapse are pretty plain to see.</p>
<p>After  1931, America was pretty self-sufficient, had all the oil and food it  needed and became very isolationist. Great Britain traded within its  then-empire. World trade collapsed following 1931 and 2011 may well be a  repeat of that tragic year, with the collapse of the euro and the  unraveling of the entire global monetary system. It could be a long  hiatus before a new system is developed. It goes back to that 20-year  anniversary cycle I mentioned. The pure gold standard system that had  evolved initially in Great Britain in 1821 collapsed in 1914 because the  combatants in World War I couldn&#8217;t remain on a gold standard system and  print the money they needed to fight the war. So, I would say that we  will likely return to a gold standard in 2014—100 years after the gold  standard collapsed in 1914.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> So, you&#8217;re saying  investors have a two- to three-year window to position themselves and  their investments to profit from what&#8217;s going to happen when this is all  turns around.</p>
<p><strong>IG:</strong> Right.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> We&#8217;ve had  all this volatility in the metals prices over the past year and some  substantial gains. How is this affecting companies in the mining  business?</p>
<p><strong>IG:</strong> For the main part, I&#8217;ve positioned myself  in either new producing companies or companies that have gold assets in  the ground. I&#8217;m principally more disposed to investing in gold than I am  in silver. I think these assets are going to be extremely valuable. I  met with one of my website subscribers just yesterday and said it&#8217;s  quite possible that there won&#8217;t be enough physical gold available on the  market to supply the demand. We produce only 80 million ounces (Moz.)  of gold a year from existing mines. I think, eventually, the demand for  gold will become so extreme that the producers won&#8217;t want to be paid in  paper money because the paper system is collapsing. So, gold may well be  taken out of the market, that&#8217;s why it is important to get the physical  bullion now rather than later. Of course, gold company stocks that  produce physical gold are going to be extremely valuable, as well.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> Obviously, you&#8217;re quite selective about which companies you decide to  invest your own money in and suggest that other people do the same with  their money. What criteria do you use in selecting companies for your  portfolios?</p>
<p><strong>IG:</strong> First, I have to meet with management  before I ever put my money into a company. I realize that a lot of  investors can&#8217;t do that, but they can certainly talk to management. On  the junior side, management is usually very disposed to talking with  perspective shareholders. It&#8217;s just a matter of picking up the phone and  asking the president of a company why it is a good investment, and then  listening to the answers. I have to feel confident that a company&#8217;s  management will be able to produce what they say they&#8217;re going to  produce on behalf of the shareholders.</p>
<p>Another criterion that I  use is geopolitical risk. I want to invest only in companies that I am  confident are in politically secure jurisdictions. I have been bitten in  the past by investing in companies in countries that I thought were  politically secure, which became insecure. In Ecuador, the rules changed  and mining almost ceased to function in that country. So, I  particularly like companies that have assets in Canada, which I think is  a very safe jurisdiction. Many of the companies that I&#8217;ve selected for  my own portfolio have assets in Canada. I also like Mexico.</p>
<p>I  think the U.S. is ok, but I&#8217;m a bit worried about what might happen when  the whole system starts to collapse. After 9/11, I remember when an  unnamed Federal Reserve spokesman said in an interview that it looked at  many ways to avert a panic. One of the things he mentioned was buying  gold mines. If the U.S. doesn&#8217;t have the gold it purports to have, it  could well be that the country could nationalize gold companies. I do  have investments in companies that are exploring for gold in the U.S.,  but not a lot. I particularly like companies in Canada.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> There was a little fear recently about the possibility that the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Democratic_Party" target="_blank">New Democratic Party (NDP)</a> may be coming back into power in British Columbia. Its administration  had a devastating effect a generation ago, when it caused the whole BC  mining industry to retrench. I guess that&#8217;s probably not going to happen  at this point; but if something like that was to happen, would that  possibly have a negative effect at least on BC?</p>
<p><strong>IG:</strong> Well,  it might. If the NDP does win in British Columbia, I think it probably  learned from past experience. Under recent governments, there&#8217;s been a  tremendous amount of exploration and a lot of companies going into  production in the Province. It&#8217;s going to be very hard to shut those  down because they&#8217;re all permitted under present mining laws. So, if the  NDP was to win in BC, it&#8217;s not something that I would be in favor of  because I live in the Province and know what negative effect it had on  the region&#8217;s mining not long ago. I think most of the companies in BC  now are sufficiently advanced in terms of their exploration, and some  have gone into production like <a href="http://www.theaureport.com/pub/co/2197" target="_blank">Barkerville Gold Mines Ltd. (TSX.V:BGM)</a>. So, all the permitting is in place and it&#8217;s going to be very difficult to rescind it.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> Can you bring us up to date on some of the companies you&#8217;ve talked  about with us previously and give us some ideas on others you&#8217;re looking  at?</p>
<p><strong>IG:</strong> I own shares of <a href="http://www.theaureport.com/pub/co/2329" target="_blank">Fire River Gold Corp. (TSX.V:FAU; OTCQX:FVGCF)</a>.  I think the company&#8217;s put together an extremely strong management team  in order to put the Nixon Fork gold mine back into production, and I&#8217;m  confident that Fire River is going to succeed. Right now, on the basis  of the reserves the company&#8217;s put together through exploration, it  probably has only a three-year mine life. The company is going to  continue drilling to expand that resource and will be able to produce  50,000 ounces (Koz.) gold per year.</p>
<p>Barkerville Gold Mines is  probably my favorite gold-company investment at this time; I think it&#8217;s  very undervalued. The company currently produces about 50 Koz./year and  will probably more than double that when it brings the second mill  onstream. It&#8217;s a very large property, which I&#8217;ve been on, and I think it  has the potential to host a 5 Moz. gold resource. So, I&#8217;m very excited  about Barkerville, and I think it&#8217;s going to do extremely well. I have  about 15% of my portfolio invested in BGM.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> Obviously, you&#8217;re voting with your money.</p>
<p><strong>IG:</strong> What I tend to do, and also advise for my subscribers, is to take large  positions in companies that I think are going to do very well and  smaller positions in companies where I&#8217;m not as confident. But, if those  companies really do well, they&#8217;ll boost the value of my portfolio. If  they don&#8217;t, they won&#8217;t hurt it that badly either. So, by taking a large  investment position in Barkerville, I am confident that the share price  will perform very well.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.theaureport.com/pub/co/534" target="_blank">Premier Gold Mines Ltd. (TSX:PG)</a> is another great company building an expanding resource. I like the  company very much. But I don&#8217;t own it because I think it&#8217;s expensive and  that&#8217;s due to CEO Ewan Downey&#8217;s past record and reputation. He&#8217;s the  CEO, president and director of the company and is a real mine finder. I  think he&#8217;s repeating his past success with Premier.</p>
<p>I like <a href="http://www.theaureport.com/pub/co/2216" target="_blank">Millrock Resources Inc. (TSX.V:MRO)</a> because I have the utmost respect for Greg Beischer, its CEO and  president. He&#8217;s put some great properties in Alaska and Arizona into the  company, most of which he&#8217;s been able to joint venture (JVs) with major  companies. Big companies just don&#8217;t do JVs on properties that don&#8217;t  have big potential. So, I think Millrock is a company that, at these  prices, is probably undervalued. But it&#8217;s a little more grassroots than  my other investments.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.theaureport.com/pub/co/623" target="_blank">Timmins Gold Corp. (TSX.V:TMM)</a> is in production at its San Francisco Gold Mine in northern Mexico. I  think it will meet the objectives the management team set out for the  company, which was producing about 100 Koz. gold/year. Drilling results  near the mine show an expanding resource. This company has always been  an absolute standout in achieving the objectives its management sets. I  still own TMM shares and have done very well.</p>
<p>Another little company I particularly like right now, and own almost 10% of, is called <a href="http://www.theaureport.com/pub/co/3635" target="_blank">Colibri Resource Corp. (TSX.V:CBI)</a>, which has all of its properties in northern Mexico. The company just completed a JV deal with <a href="http://www.theaureport.com/pub/co/2" target="_blank">Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (TSX:AEM; NYSE:AEM)</a> on a big gold property where the geology is fairly complex and very similar to La Herradura, which is a <a href="http://www.theaureport.com/pub/co/457" target="_blank">Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE:NEM)</a>/<a href="http://www.theaureport.com/pub/co/689" target="_blank">Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES)</a> JV property. The La Herradura property hosts roughly 12 Moz. gold and  is only about 12 km. away. Colibri also has a silver property that looks  extremely attractive. The company did some percussion drilling in 2006  and got great results, so it&#8217;s drilling it again. I&#8217;ve got just under  10% of the company. Sprott has just under 20% and Agnico-Eagle has just  under 20%. With Sprott and Agnico, Colibri has some very important  shareholders.</p>
<p>Another company I really like and own a lot of, and whose share price doesn&#8217;t reflect what I think it&#8217;s worth, is called <a href="http://www.theaureport.com/pub/co/690" target="_blank">Temex Resources Corp. (TSX.V:TME; FSE:TQ1)</a>.  All of the company&#8217;s assets are in Ontario, Canada. It has about 1.2  Moz. gold at surface on its Shining Tree property averaging about 1.5  grams per ton (g/t), so it&#8217;s certainly mineable. You&#8217;re really only  paying maybe $40 per ounce of gold in the ground for this company. So, I  think Temex is extremely undervalued. I own a lot of the stock and  think it will do very well for shareholders.</p>
<p>Another one I like and have been buying lately is a company called <a href="http://www.theaureport.com/pub/co/714" target="_blank">PC Gold Inc. (TSX:PKL)</a>.  Between my wife and me, we&#8217;ve probably accumulated about 1 million  shares. PC&#8217;s main asset is a past-producing, very high-grade mine on  Pickle Lake in Northwestern Ontario. The company has been drilling and  producing exceptionally good drill results and probably now has a  resource of more than 1 Moz. I think it&#8217;s extremely undervalued. I&#8217;ve  been buying it in the open market and believe it can do very well for  investors. So, there are a few more ideas.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> Thank you for those great ideas. Did you have any last thoughts about the future of the economy you&#8217;d like to share?</p>
<p><strong>IG:</strong> Unfortunately, I&#8217;m very pessimistic about the economy. If paper money,  which is credit money, collapses, then, essentially, credit collapses  and the economy grinds to a halt. Quite a scary scenario could evolve  from a collapse in the paper-money system. We almost had a major credit  failure in 2008. What happens if credit does that again? Everything  stops—trucking stops, the movement of goods stops and it becomes a very  difficult time for everyone. I think people have to prepare for the  worst.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> We&#8217;ve certainly gotten used to a system that  is automated and electronic. People press buttons and expect results. If  things start falling apart as you predict, we could see some real  turmoil—financial and possibly even physical.</p>
<p><strong>IG:</strong> Investors need to keep those possibilities in mind and protect their  assets as best as they can. I&#8217;m a little reluctant to admit it, but one  of the things I keep on hand is a one-year supply of food. It&#8217;s a  relatively inexpensive way of protecting your food source. If the system  falls apart, as it could, you won&#8217;t be able to run down to the store  and get what you want when you need it.</p>
<p><strong>TGR:</strong> Thank you very much, Ian, for your valuable insights and recommendations.</p>
<p><strong>IG:</strong> Thank you very much.</p>
<p><em>A globally renowned economic forecaster, author and speaker, <a href="http://www.theaureport.com/pub/htdocs/expert.html?id=2700" target="_blank">Ian Gordon</a> is founder and chairman of the <a href="http://www.longwavegroup.com/" target="_blank">Longwave Group</a>,  comprising two companies—Longwave Analytics and Longwave Strategies.  The former specializes in Ian&#8217;s ongoing study and analysis of the  Longwave Principle originally expounded by Nikolai Kondratiev. With  Longwave Strategies, Ian assists select precious metal companies in  financings. Educated in England, Ian graduated from the Royal Military  Academy, Sandhurst. After a few years serving as a platoon commander in a  Scottish regiment, Ian moved to Canada in 1967 and entered the  University of Manitoba&#8217;s History Department. Taking that step has had a  profound impact because, during this period, he began to study the  historical trends that ultimately provided the foundation for his Long  Wave theory. Ian has been publishing his Long Wave Analyst website since  1998. Eric Sprott, chairman, CEO and portfolio manager at Sprott Asset  Management, describes Ian as &#8220;a rare breed in the investment-advisor  arena.&#8221; He notes that Ian&#8217;s forecasts &#8220;have taken on a life force of  their own and if you care to listen, Ian will tell you how it will all  end.&#8221;</em></p>
<p><img src="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/wp-content/plugins/wp-o-matic/cache/27817_ObCZe4syg2U" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></p>
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		<title>Big Mac Index</title>
		<link>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/12/03/big-mac-index/</link>
		<comments>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/12/03/big-mac-index/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Dec 2010 17:50:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Doug Gentry</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Monetary Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brazil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Euro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[exchange rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[purchasing power parity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/?p=5834</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Each year The Economist magazine publishes one of my favorite economic indicators – the Big Mac Index. This year The Economist said,</p> <p>Our Big Mac index, based on the theory of purchasing-power parity, in which exchange rates should equalise the price of a basket of goods across countries, suggests that the yuan is 49% <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/12/03/big-mac-index/">Big Mac Index</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Each year <em>The Economist</em> magazine publishes one of my favorite economic indicators – the Big Mac Index. <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/15715184" target="_blank">This year <em>The Economist </em>said</a>,</p>
<blockquote><p>Our Big Mac index, based on the theory of purchasing-power parity, in  which exchange rates should equalise the price of a basket of goods  across countries, suggests that the yuan is 49% below its fair-value  benchmark with the dollar.</p></blockquote>
<p><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-340" src="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/wp-content/plugins/wp-o-matic/cache/8ca99_Big-Mac-Index-252x300.jpg" alt="Big-Mac-Index" hspace="10" width="252" height="300" />Here’s the background. First the theory. In a world of freely floating currency exchange rates, those rates will adjust over time so that a commodity costs the same anywhere in the world. This is called purchasing power parity. An example:  Imagine that Brazil finds some way to sell sugar on the global market at a much lower price than everyone else. Right away sugar buyers can buy more sugar with their own currency from Brazil than anywhere else in the world. This will substantially increase Brazil’s exports.</p>
<p>Now, we also know that if a country’s exports increase significantly their currency will increase in value on the international currency market. That is because all these purchases of Brazilian sugar will increase demand for the Brazilian <em>real</em>. As the value of the <em>real</em> rises Brazilian sugar becomes more expensive to foreign buyers – their own, local currency can’t buy as many <em>real</em> as before. At the same time other sugar exporters may see a slight decrease in the value of their currencies, as sugar buyers switch to Brazil. Over time international currency exchange rates will adjust so that a sugar buyer will be able to buy the same amount of sugar anywhere in the world.  That’s the theory of purchasing power parity. We know that currency rates don’t float perfectly, and in some cases countries seek to influence the value of their currencies. Enter the <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/15715184" target="_blank">Big Mac Index</a>.</p>
<p>A number of years ago staffers from <em>The Economist </em>decided to test purchasing power parity (PPP). Rather than using a boring commodity like sugar, they looked at Big Macs, from McDonalds. Big Macs are as close to a commodity at the definition allows – virtually identical everywhere. They recorded the price of Big Macs in scores of countries, converted those prices to dollars and tested the PPP theory. The results showed a wide range of prices for Big Macs.</p>
<p>Now, these results could disprove the PPP theory. Instead, <em>The Economist</em> staffers maintained that PPP was true, and that various countries’ currencies were either over-valued or under-valued. Let’s use China as an example. Earlier this year a Big Mac cost $3.58 in the United States, but only $1.83 in China (after converting yuan to dollars). If PPP is true, then China’s currency is under-valued by almost 50 percent. And, in fact, there is considerable angst in the international community about China’s efforts to artificially lower the value of its own currency in order to protect its huge export market and supporting industries.</p>
<p>Economists love to forecast, and yet have a very mixed record of success with their forecasting. The Big Mac Index can be used as a rough forecasting tool. In the March, 2010 article the Euro was 29% over-valued. Over the last six months the Euro has declined in value against the U.S. – just what the Big Mac Index would predict.</p>
<p>Who says economists don’t have fun?</p>
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		<title>Bailout in the Air</title>
		<link>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/11/25/bailout-in-the-air/</link>
		<comments>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/11/25/bailout-in-the-air/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Nov 2010 20:21:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Claus Vistesen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[International Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bailout]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Euro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[government debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ireland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spain]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/?p=5699</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>With apologies to John Paul Young &#8230;</p> <p>Bailout in the air</p> <p>Everywhere I look around</p> <p>Bailout in the air</p> <p>Every sight and every sound</p> <p>And I don&#8217;t know if it&#8217;s just the Irish</p> <p>Don&#8217;t know if we can afford it</p> <p>But it&#8217;s something that I must believe in</p> <p>And it&#8217;s there when I look <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/11/25/bailout-in-the-air/">Bailout in the Air</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNC0kIzM1Fo">With apologies to John Paul Young</a> &#8230;</p>
<p>Bailout in the air</p>
<p>Everywhere I look around</p>
<p>Bailout in the air</p>
<p>Every sight and every sound</p>
<p>And I don&#8217;t know if it&#8217;s just the Irish</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t know if we can afford it</p>
<p>But it&#8217;s something that I must believe in</p>
<p>And it&#8217;s there when I look in your eyes</p>
<p>Bailout in the air</p>
<p>And the Euro&#8217;s going up</p>
<p>Bailout in the air</p>
<p>In the Union that we got</p>
<p>And I don&#8217;t know if Porto is next</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t know if Proell will pay</p>
<p>But it&#8217;s something that I must believe in</p>
<p>And we hope that they do what they say</p>
<p>Bailout in the air</p>
<p>Bailout in the air</p>
<p>oh, oh, oh&#8230;</p>
<p>Bailout in the air</p>
<p>In the rising of the debt</p>
<p>Bailout in the air</p>
<p>Now the scores must be set</p>
<p>And I don&#8217;t know the Euro will make it</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t know if Spain wiill fold</p>
<p>But it&#8217;s something that I must believe in</p>
<p>And I hope that the debt will be sold</p>
<p>And I don&#8217;t know if it&#8217;s just the Irish</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t know if we can afford it</p>
<p>But it&#8217;s something that I must believe in</p>
<p>And it&#8217;s there when I look in your eyes</p>
<p>Bailout in the air</p>
<p>Bailout in the air</p>
<p>oh, oh, oh&#8230;</p>
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<div><span>Love is in the air
Everywhere I look around
Love is in the air
Every sight and every sound

And I don't know if I'm being foolish
Don't know if I'm being wise
But it's something that I must believe in
And it's there when I look in your eyes

Love is in the air
In the whisper of the trees
Love is in the air
In the thunder of the sea

And I don't know if I'm just dreaming
Don't know if I feel sane
But it's something that I must believe in
And it's there when you call out my name

Love is in the air, Love is in the air, oh, oh, oh...

Love is in the air
In the rising of the sun
Love is in the air
When the day is nearly done

And I don't know if you're an illusion
Don't know if I see it true
But you're something that I must believe in
And you're there when I reach out for you

Love is in the air
Every sight and every sound
And I don't know if I'm being foolish
Don't know if I'm being wise

But it's something that I must believe in
And it's there when I look in your eyes

Love is in the air, Love is in the air, oh, oh, oh...

(Contributed by Shay Griffiths - May 2002)<!--  -PASTE SONG LYRICS AND ALL INFO BETWEEN THESE TWO LINES--></span></div>
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		<title>Who is Next in the Eurozone?</title>
		<link>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/11/19/who-is-next-in-the-eurozone/</link>
		<comments>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/11/19/who-is-next-in-the-eurozone/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 Nov 2010 18:10:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Claus Vistesen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[International Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EU]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Euro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eurozone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[financial bailout]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[government debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[government default]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IMF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ireland]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/?p=5604</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The Eurozone seems to be the place where the party never ends these days as one skeleton after the other comes rattling out of the closet. Indeed, one has the impression that history is in the making these days and the only thing we can hope is that it will be for the better.</p> <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/11/19/who-is-next-in-the-eurozone/">Who is Next in the Eurozone?</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span><span><img style="float: left" src="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/wp-content/plugins/wp-o-matic/cache/e5ef2_portugal%2Bpost.JPG?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1290180043794" alt="" /></span></span>The Eurozone seems to be the place where the party never ends these days as one skeleton after the other comes rattling out of the closet. Indeed, one has the impression that history is in the making these days and the only thing we can hope is that it will be for the better.</p>
<p>In truth however, I felt a good measure of sympathy for Ireland today as I read <a href="http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aSU7YBIjXhs4&amp;pos=4">the Bloomberg report</a> about how the country is now essentially on its way to accepting a deal that will have aid delivered from the EU, the IMF and, most painfully, from England.</p>
<blockquote><p>Irish rebels fought for independence during World War I, boasting they served “neither King nor Kaiser.” Ireland may now have to do exactly that to qualify for a bailout partly funded by both Britain and Germany.  Prime Minister Brian Cowen is edging toward accepting a rescue package that may threaten the country’s low-tax policies and put voters on the hook to repay loans the central bank says may be worth “tens of billions” of euros. For critics of Cowen’s Fianna Fail party, which governed Ireland through its decade-long boom, national pride is at stake.  Cowen has “squandered” independence for a “German bailout with a few shillings of sympathy from the British chancellor,” the Irish Times newspaper said yesterday. The government should be “ashamed that Fianna Fail should be the ones to surrender sovereignty,” said Michael Noonan, finance spokesman for Fine Gael, the largest opposition party.</p></blockquote>
<p>However, Ireland largely made the mistakes itself of which the biggest no doubt was to guarantee its banking system and essentially gamble that a) the economy could swallow the liabilities of its broken banks (which with a deficit of 32% of GDP in 2010 it obviously can&#8217;t) and b) that help could be reached elsewhere.</p>
<p><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/17/408021/thou-shalt-not-bluff/">Iza&#8217;s report</a> yesterday over at FT Alphaville about just how much European governments have promised during the past 2 years makes an extraordinarily important point and it well worth reading in its entirety;</p>
<blockquote><p>As all eyes focus on what should be done about the Irish banking crisis, perhaps it’s time for the European Union, IMF and other related parties to take a closer look at some of the factors that may have exacerbated the problem.  After all, it’s now becoming abundantly clear that the dishing out of an elaborate 100 per cent deposit guarantee back in September 2008 was largely nothing more than a massive bluff designed to steal attract deposit flows from neighbouring states to for the purpose of propping up Irish banks.  Furthermore, as we’ve mentioned already, the EFSF is already turning out to resemble something like Paulson’s bazooka in its own right too.  Which means  — with everything becoming a high-stakes game of ‘Call my bluff‘ — it could be time to restrict the ability of sovereigns  generally to randomly guarantee things they clearly can’t afford to guarantee in the first place. (If confidence in the Eurozone is to be restored properly that is.)  After all, let’s just look at the dynamics of the Irish deposit guarantee itself.</p></blockquote>
<p>So, this is about a deposit guarantees which if course is one of those guarantees a government never really can make due on in the case of the ultimate rout <em>à l&#8217;End of Days</em>. Yet, the point has general validity far beyond the issue of deposit guarantees. Basically, Ireland promised to make due for its banks &#8230; now that it appear that she can&#8217;t, it is up to the rest of the Eurozone to pay.</p>
<p>No doubt this view is shared in principle as well as sentiment by the <em>prowling Proell</em> from Austria who recently fired two stray missiles into the raging debate on how best to deal with the issue of solidarity in the Eurozone. Earlier in the week, he raised serious questions about whether Austria would make due on its promist to spit into the common funding scheme for Greece now that it was obvious that the country was missing its budget target yet again and most recently, he said to Bloomberg reporters that he was very interested in talking with Ireland about its famously low corporate tax rate in connection with the bailout.</p>
<p>You know, quid pro quo and all that.</p>
<p>Now, before we get into the blame game I should note that I agree with the Economist in <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/17525741">their most recent take on the Eurozone mess</a> in which they implicitly highlight that while timing is always difficult in politics there is still a continuum between good and bad and Merkel&#8217;s sudden urge to remind bondholders that they too might take a loss falls in the latter category.</p>
<blockquote><p>At an EU summit at the end of October the German chancellor won  agreement that any future euro-zone rescue scheme should include a  mechanism for an orderly sovereign-debt default. The principle was  absolutely right: unless default is a possibility, bond investors have  no reason to distinguish between good and bad credits. But the idea of  making bondholders lose money when sovereign credits turn sour was aired  without any guidance about how and when it might apply. Astonishingly,  the Germans failed to put together a detailed proposal for the summit.</p></blockquote>
<p>I should make it clear that I fully back to idea of bondholders taking their share of the loss since if this is not a real possibility there is no way in which to secure an orderly default which is inevitably coming sooner rather than later to some of the most vulnerable Eurozone economies. Especially, and going back to Izabella&#8217;s point above the practical distinction between using bailout funds for governents and not banks is a mirage exactly because promises have been made and anectodal contracts have been signed with the electorate and, one is tempted to note, the devil herself. As I have said before, you may not like it and I agree with Izabella that the EU and IMF would be wise to monitor just what promises that are made in the future.</p>
<p>And speaking of promises; if Ireland seems to be mellow enough to be put into the bailout fold, there is another small country left in the waiting room in the form of Portugal. Again I think that the Economist has the right answer;</p>
<blockquote><p>If only both sides gave up posturing, they would agree that the European  rescue funds should be used to stabilise Ireland’s banks, insisting  only on certain budget targets in return. Such a deal should satisfy  Ireland’s euro-zone partners, which want an end to the uncertainty, and  the European Central Bank (ECB), on which Ireland’s banks have become  overly reliant for funding. It would also be wise to offer a similar  deal to Portugal. Its banks are dependent on ECB support, and it too is  in the bond markets’ sights.</p></blockquote>
<p>I am not exactly tuned up on the actual difference between just pouring money into the banks or giving it to the sovereign which then uses the funds to make due on a foolhardy promise to secure the entire domestic banking sector&#8217;s liabilities. But really, the distinction should be next to none I think. And if you think that all this about Portugal is just me trying to kick up a bad mood, <a href="http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aSU7YBIjXhs4&amp;pos=4">Bloomberg pulled one better on me</a> with this elegant report about how investors are turning their attention away from Ireland and over to &#8230; well, you guessed it I think;</p>
<blockquote><p>The markets indicate that country is Portugal with 10-year bond yields of 6.88 percent, compared with 8.26 percent in Ireland and 11.62 percent in Greece, which received rescue funds in May from the European Union and International Monetary Fund. Portuguese Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos said Nov. 15 that while “there is a risk of contagion,” that doesn’t mean the country will seek financial aid.  “Portugal isn’t in the situation that it is now because of Ireland,” said Steven Mansell, director of interest-rate strategy at Citigroup Global Markets Ltd. in London. “If Ireland reaches an agreement to tap the European Financial Stability Facility or some other mechanism to support its banking sector, I don’t think that will alleviate the pressure on Portugal.”</p></blockquote>
<p>So, it seems as if the next stop might very well be far western rim of the Eurozone and its beautiful Algarve coastline.</p>
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		<title>The Euro as a Carry Trade Funder &#8230; Surprising?</title>
		<link>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/05/25/the-euro-as-a-carry-trade-funder-surprising/</link>
		<comments>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/05/25/the-euro-as-a-carry-trade-funder-surprising/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 May 2010 19:00:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Claus Vistesen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[carry trade]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[demographics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Euro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/?p=4033</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[ <p style="text-align: center;">Nothing is so bad, that it isn&#8217;t good for something</p> <p>So goes an old adage in my home country (and I would imagine elsewhere too) and perhaps if hard burdened Eurozone policy makers and investors are finding it hard to find any kind of (positive) silver lining in the current debacle, <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/05/25/the-euro-as-a-carry-trade-funder-surprising/">The Euro as a Carry Trade Funder &#8230; Surprising?</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><em>Nothing is so bad, that it isn&#8217;t good for something</em></p>
<p>So goes an old adage in my home country (and I would imagine elsewhere too) and perhaps if hard burdened Eurozone policy makers and investors are finding it hard to find any kind of (positive) silver lining in the current debacle, they may just want to remember that old of oldest saying. I am of course talking about the Euro here and while its recent fall from grace has been linked to all kinds of nastiness in the form of a Eurozone break-up/collapse as well as the final nail in the coffin of those who once argued that the Euro would surpass the USD as the global reserve currency [1], it is also going to act as a much needed leg of support to those economies most in need of export performance in the absense of domestic demand. As the tally of the financial crisis increases and as the demographic transition soldiers on this is fast becoming all the Eurozone economies combined [2] (click for better viewing).</p>
<p><span><span> </span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/S_qT3TXTQoI/AAAAAAAABd4/mnJigxw9IU0/s1600/EUR+as+acnhor.JPG"><img src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/S_qT3TXTQoI/AAAAAAAABd4/mnJigxw9IU0/s320/EUR+as+acnhor.JPG?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1274713113538" alt="" /></a></p>
<p>Since the beginning of 2010 the Euro has depreciated 14% and 16.5% agains the USD and JPY respectively and this is remarkable in an environment where risk aversion has unwound. In short; when it comes to the game of cards in terms of global liquidity/capital flows where holding old maid means that you buy bear the brunt of intra-G3 appreciation. <a href="http://clausvistesen.squarespace.com/alphasources-blog/2010/1/11/fx-markets-2010-the-old-maid-global-imbalances-and-carry-tra.html">This is what I wrote</a> in my sneek-peek into 2010 G3 FX markets;</p>
<blockquote><p>In an G3 context, 2010 clearly holds the potential for Dollar strength, but timing and intensity is going to differ. Most major research houses see the USD/JPY as a strong candidate for a correction that could move the pair back in the 100s. I concur. Whatever speed the US economy will have in 2010, Japan will be the laggard and the BOJ will be dragged kicking and screaming into a full out battery of QE measures.</p>
<p>Buy the Old Maid. If the rally in risky assets continue into 2010 and beyond, the Euro will be holding the Old Maid amongst the G3.<strong> </strong>If the recovery is stopped in its tracks it is very likely that it will be from an event conjured in Europe making the USD holder of Old Maid. The former looks the most plausible scenario at this point in time with the notable qualifier that the USD should strenghten against the JPY. In this way, the Old Maid will shift hands from the JPY to the Euro and potentially the USD with the outlook for the EUR/USD not easy to call.</p>
<p>In my book the EUR/USD looks way too high even in the 1.40s. However, we have seen before that this pair may continue to rally so it is worth treating this one with care. Societe Générale sees dollar weakness sustained (except versus the JPY) well into 2010 and thus the EUR/USD continuing to drift upwards. I only conditionally agree. Especially I would emphasize the fact that the risks to the Euro, by far, out match those to the USD at the current juncture. In this way, I am less sanguine when it comes to the continuation of the ”recovery” and thus the rally in risky assets.</p></blockquote>
<p>I will let my readers judge the accuracy of my argument but I don&#8217;t think it is too far off the mark. Consequently, I was not particularly suprised by <a href="http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-05-23/selling-euros-for-kiwis-enables-traders-to-find-yield-at-merkel-s-backdoor.html">this piece today</a> running across the Bloomberg wire that FX punters and other of their ilk are beginning to look to the Euro as a source of global liquidity to play the carry wheel in high yield economies.</p>
<p>(quote Bloomberg)</p>
<blockquote><p>The fastest <span>convergence</span> in short-term interest rates in almost a year is making the euro a surprise addition to currencies used to finance investments in higher- yielding assets. “The hot guys are moving into using the euro as a funding currency,” said John Taylor, who helps oversee $7.5 billion as chairman of New York-based FX Concepts LLC, manager of the world’s largest foreign-exchange hedge fund. “It’s not quite as cheap as the yen but it’s a lot safer in a crisis, because the worse the world looks the worse the euro looks.”</p>
<p>Borrowing in euros to finance an investment in the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Brazilian real and Norwegian krone returned 10 percent in the past 6 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The same trade using the dollar instead of the 16-nation currency resulted in a 7.5 percent loss, and a 7.4 percent decline with the yen. Deteriorating economic prospects in the euro area have helped push down the cost of short-term borrowing in Europe relative to the U.S. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for three-month loans in euros <a title="Get Quote" href="http://preview.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?T=en10/quote.wm&amp;ticker=EU0003M:IND">fell</a> to within about 14 basis points, or 0.14 percentage point, of the dollar rate on May 21, from 26 basis points at the end of April and 40 on Dec. 31, according to data from the British Bankers’ Association.</p>
<p>Libor for loans in dollars for three months was 0.497 percent at the end of last week, compared with 0.636 percent for euros, the BBA said. The European Central Bank’s <span>main refinancing rate</span> is 1 percent, while the Federal Reserve’s <span>target</span> rate for overnight  loans is as low as zero.</p></blockquote>
<p>Now, I am sure that the Eurocrats would rather have the Euro gunning for reserve status and certainly this goes for the ECB hawks who have so far, and decisively in the context of the initiation of QE, been drowned in a sea of dove feathers. However, being a carry trade funder has its advantages too; just ask Japan who has benefitted from this role a long time up until of course the Fed rushed into QE on the back of the financial crisis as well as it appears that Japan&#8217;s own horrible growth and debt outlook has taken the, temporary, backseat to the crisis in Europe. As Andreas Hahner, a money manager at Allianz Global Investors, is quoted by Bloomberg; you need three things to be a carry trade funder. Low interest rates(check!), depreciation/relative weakness (check) and low volatility (well, check for now). However, Mr. Hahner is right to point to the fact that the bounce back in the Euro could flush out many a European version of Ms Watanabe.</p>
<p>But then again, which boounce back would he be talking about here?</p>
<p>Certainly, in relation to the G3 the big problem is that the long term growth prospect for the US looks decidedly brighter than for Europe and Japan (demographics remember) and this is a &#8220;problem&#8221; since we were also supposed to correct those blasted imbalances. In fact, one cannot help but feel that if Germany really wants <em>wealth preservation</em> and <em>vigilance against inflation</em>, let them have it, but they need to know what it means. I would consequently submit that in terms of keeping the Eurozone in one piece and in its current form will require a sea-change at the ECB. We have seen the first steps to this with the intiation of QE, but what markets have not faced up to yet is the duration of this policy measure. It won&#8217;t just go away folks; it is here to say. Whether it also means that the Euro is now to become a carry trade funder of choice is a significant question since if this is the case, it means that it will also begin to trade like one. I for one would not be surprised to see this and investors should take note of the change in discourse on the Euro here [3].</p>
<p>&#8212;</p>
<p>[1] &#8211; About time too; some of us has argued this for the better part of the last 3 years!</p>
<p>[2] &#8211; In this sense, there IS convergence which is actually an interesting point to ponder in terms of general reflection.</p>
<p>[3] &#8211; Well, of course, you should not take note of me not being surprised <img src='http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /> </div>
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		<title>A Sea of Red</title>
		<link>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/05/17/a-sea-of-red/</link>
		<comments>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/05/17/a-sea-of-red/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 May 2010 18:33:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Claus Vistesen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[International Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ECB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Euro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eurozone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IMF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stock market]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/?p=3933</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>If an ECB in QE mode, €60 billion in cash, €440 billion from a pooled EMU effort and €220 billion from the IMF only lasts a week, then I&#8217;d humbly submit that we have a problem.</p> <p>(Screenshot from Bloomberg, click for better viewing)</p> <p style="text-align: center;"></p> <p>It is difficult to say whether it was <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/05/17/a-sea-of-red/">A Sea of Red</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If an ECB in QE mode, €60 billion in cash, €440 billion from a pooled EMU effort and €220 billion from the IMF only lasts a week, then I&#8217;d humbly submit that we have <a href="http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-05-14/stocks-slump-on-concern-debt-crisis-to-limit-growth-euro-crude-oil-drop.html">a problem.</a></p>
<p>(<em>Screenshot from Bloomberg, </em><em>click for better viewing</em>)</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/S-2Hpx90FSI/AAAAAAAABdQ/MWBH6qdoCZQ/s1600/sea+of+red.JPG"><img src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vhPkPUN2aT8/S-2Hpx90FSI/AAAAAAAABdQ/MWBH6qdoCZQ/s320/sea+of+red.JPG?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1273858438840" alt="" /></a></p>
<p>It is difficult to say whether it was former <a href="http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-05-14/euro-breakup-talk-increases-as-germany-sees-greece-becoming-currency-proxy.html">Fed chairman Volkcer&#8217;s comment</a> on Euro breakup which set alight the initial fire, but what is certain is that it does not seem that markets have calmed down. And they shouldn&#8217;t be. The package may be impressive, but the growth prospects of the Eurozone has now been moved down more than a couple of nudges and still there is looming and large risk that debt restructuring will come eventually (<a href="http://clausvistesen.squarespace.com/alphasources-blog/2010/5/14/the-eurozone-bailout-are-we-still-standing.html">I believe so for example</a>).</p>
<p>As ever, I should point out that in my world slumping stocks do not constitute a <em>problem </em>as such, but volatility is rising and with it, risks of a veritable rout against which it is difficult to see where policy makers will find the tools prevent a sea of red turning into severe bloodletting.</p>
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		<title>The Euro Zone Will Defend Its Money: Experts Hail Resolute Action</title>
		<link>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/05/11/the-euro-zone-will-defend-its-money-experts-hail-resolute-action/</link>
		<comments>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/05/11/the-euro-zone-will-defend-its-money-experts-hail-resolute-action/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 May 2010 14:37:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Eldon Mast</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[International Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ECB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Euro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[financial bailout]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[government debt]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/?p=3877</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>“The message has gotten through: the euro zone will defend its money,” French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde told reporters in Brussels early Monday.</p> <p>With massive resolve after a 14 hour meeting, 16 euro nations agreed to offer financial assistance worth as much as 750 billion euros ($962 billion) to countries under attack from speculators. <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/05/11/the-euro-zone-will-defend-its-money-experts-hail-resolute-action/">The Euro Zone Will Defend Its Money: Experts Hail Resolute Action</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>“The message has gotten through: the euro zone will defend its money,” French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde told reporters in Brussels early Monday.</p>
<p>With massive resolve after a 14 hour meeting, 16 euro nations agreed to offer financial assistance worth as much as 750 billion euros ($962 billion) to countries under attack from speculators. The European Central Bank (ECB) will counter negative and “severe tensions” in “certain” markets by purchasing government and private debt.</p>
<p>Marco Annunziata, chief economist at UniCredit Group in London, quickly released a statement following the ECB announcement: “This truly should be more than sufficient to stabilize markets in the near term, prevent panic and contain the risk of contagion.”</p>
<p>“I think they will have bought themselves a significant amount of time to do the right thing,” said Barry Eichengreen, an economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley.</p>
<p>“This sets a precedent for the rest of the life of the Central Bank and will have likely surprised even the most seasoned observers,” said Jacques Cailloux, chief European economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group. “The ECB’s intervention was necessary to short circuit the negative feedback loop&#8230;”</p>
<p>The swift and united action will likely now turn most eyes back onto the fundamentals of a worldwide <strong><a href="http://mast-economy.blogspot.com/2010/04/more-evidence-of-worldwide-recovery.html">economic recovery that is accelerating</a></strong><span>.</span></p>
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		<title>Risk Off?</title>
		<link>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/05/05/risk-off/</link>
		<comments>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/05/05/risk-off/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 May 2010 19:00:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Claus Vistesen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currency rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Euro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stock market]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/?p=3806</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Well, well &#8230; it seems that the Europe may be important after all or at least that the Greek malaise may be spreading. The EUR/USD at 1.29ish, the AUD/USD looking towards 0.9ish, and all things risky in equity land seems to be entering the room of pain &#8230;I will leave it to Mr. Bloomberg <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/05/05/risk-off/">Risk Off?</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, well &#8230; it seems that the Europe may be important after all or at least that the Greek malaise may be spreading. The EUR/USD at 1.29ish, the AUD/USD looking towards 0.9ish, and all things risky in equity land seems to be entering the room of pain &#8230;I will leave it to <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=a2VWwhpkHh.0&amp;pos=1">Mr. Bloomberg for now</a>;</p>
<blockquote><p>Asian stocks fell, extending the biggest slump in global equities in three months, while the euro and oil dropped on concern Europe’s debt crisis is spreading. Yield premiums on corporate bonds widened the most in 13 months.</p>
<p>The MSCI  Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index dropped 1.9 percent to 410.11 as of 12:31 p.m. in Hong Kong. The euro extended declines after weakening below $1.30 for the first time since April 2009. The extra yield investors demand to own company debt instead of U.S. Treasuries climbed 4 basis points as investors shunned higher-yielding assets, while rates on Australian 10-year notes dropped 10 basis points to 5.65 percent. “Investors have clearly shifted their focus from strengthening corporate earnings and an improving macroeconomic backdrop to the problem of sovereign debt,” said Nader Naeimi, a strategist at AMP Capital Investors Ltd. who helps oversee $90 billion for the Sydney-based mutual-funds manager.</p>
<p>More than $1.1 trillion was wiped from the value of global stocks yesterday amid growing expectations that the 110 billion euro ($143 billion) rescue package for Greece will need to be extended to Spain and Portugal. Stocks declines accelerated after Spanish Prime Minister <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Jose+Luis+Rodriguez+Zapatero&amp;site=wnews&amp;client=wnews&amp;proxystylesheet=wnews&amp;output=xml_no_dtd&amp;ie=UTF-8&amp;oe=UTF-8&amp;filter=p&amp;getfields=wnnis&amp;sort=date:D:S:d1">Jose Luis  Rodriguez Zapatero</a> called the speculation “complete madness.”</p>
<p>The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations dropped 0.2 percent after losing 2.6 percent yesterday, the most since Feb. 4, almost eliminating this year’s gains. The MSCI gauge for emerging markets fell 1.3 percent and is now down 1.1 percent for 2010.</p>
<p>Contagion ‘Sword’</p>
<p>All 10 of the industry groups in the MSCI Asia index declined, with more than 18 stocks falling for each that gained. China’s Shanghai Composite Index declined 1.5 percent and Taiwan’s Taiex lost 2.8 percent. Markets in Japan, South Korea and Thailand are closed today.</p>
<p>Futures on the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.2  percent. The gauge declined 2.4 percent yesterday. “There is no dispute that risk appetite has come right off with the European worries,” said Prasad Patkar,  who helps manage $1.7 billion at Platypus Asset Management Ltd. in Sydney. “Damage caused by contagion is so firmly etched in people’s mind from the dark days of the financial crisis that no one wants to be caught long risk whilst this sword is hanging over our heads.”</p></blockquote>
<p>So, is it back to the good old risk off (buy the USD) trade here or will there perhaps be real divergence between European and ROW equity/risk performance. Inquiring minds would love to know &#8230;</p>
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		<title>Euro Gold And The Euro Zone</title>
		<link>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/04/27/euro-gold-and-the-euro-zone/</link>
		<comments>http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/04/27/euro-gold-and-the-euro-zone/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Apr 2010 18:50:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Trace Mayer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Monetary Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[devaluation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Euro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fiat currency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/?p=3679</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>I had a conference to attend in Southern California last week but the true capstone was a Sunday evening dinner with several readers. Although ‘gold bugs’ may be perceived in their writing as cranky I have found them to be among the most considerate and cultured company. Perhaps it stems from their respect for <span style="color:#777"> . . . &#8594; Read More: <a href="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/2010/04/27/euro-gold-and-the-euro-zone/">Euro Gold And The Euro Zone</a></span>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I had a conference to attend in Southern California last week but the true capstone was a Sunday evening dinner with several readers. Although ‘gold bugs’ may be perceived in their writing as cranky I have found them to be among the most considerate and cultured company. Perhaps it stems from their respect for individual rights. Either way the grilled chicken was fabulous and I brought delicious creations from <a title="extraordinary desserts" href="http://www.extraordinarydesserts.com/" target="_blank">Extraordinary Desserts</a>.<img src="http://www.it-star.org/files/270410/270410.jpg" border="0" alt="" width="1" height="1" /><img src="http://www.it-star.org/files/2704101/2704101.jpg" border="0" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></p>
<p>But we had serious and complicated legal, financial and economic discussions. Fiat currency, fractional reserve banking and derivatives have <em>completely broken the pricing mechanism</em>. A tiny volcano burps and entire transportation systems grind to a halt. We addressed tough questions about <a title="survivalism suburbs" href="http://www.runtogold.com/2009/05/survivalism-in-the-suburbs/" target="_blank">survivalism in the suburbs</a>. And then focus turned to the timing of the evaporation of the FRN$.</p>
<p><a title="Permanent link to Euro Gold And The Euro Zone" href="http://www.runtogold.com/2010/04/euro-gold-and-the-euro-zone/"><img class="post_image aligncenter" style="margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto" src="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/wp-content/plugins/wp-o-matic/cache/b9b8a_eur-gold-apr-2010.jpg" alt="euro gold april 2010" width="520" height="347" /></a></p>
<p><strong>EURO GOLD</strong></p>
<p>But the FRN$ is below the Euro in the <a title="liquidity pyramid" href="http://www.creditcontraction.com/images/affiliate/Great-Credit-Contraction-Liquidity-Pyramid-Large.jpg" target="_blank">liquidity pyramid</a>. The FRN$ has deeper capital pools, more economic underpinning, greater liquidity, a stronger economic union and more thoroughly self-deceived owners of colored coupons and imaginary digits. Therefore, the Euro will evaporate before the FRN$. And that is precisely what is happening.</p>
<p>Fiat currencies represent the common stocks of nations, or in the Euro’s case the common stock of a weak coalition of nations. Since gold is the <a title="numeraire" href="http://www.runtogold.com/2010/01/numeraire/" target="_blank">numaire</a> par excellence then lets take a view at the Euro zone’s stock through that lens.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" style="margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto" src="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/wp-content/plugins/wp-o-matic/cache/21b83_euro-evaporation.jpg" alt="" width="520" height="385" />A few weeks ago when I was around <a title="doug casey" href="http://www.runtogold.com/internationalspeculatorcasey" target="_blank">Doug Casey</a> he remarked that the Euro will be gone in about five years. As the above chart shows, the Euro has lost about 75% of its value in the last 10 years. Mr. Casey may be slightly optimistic about this particular intrinsically worthless colored coupon that represents the common stock of that monetary union.</p>
<p><strong>EURO ZONE</strong></p>
<p>So what has happened in the Euro zone as its common stock has been evaporating? Government budgets have exploded, economic output has slowed, individuals are rioting and causing material amounts of damage, governments are being toppled and armed forces, despite being prohibited by the law that they ultimately enforce, are striking.</p>
<p>For example, on 26 April 2010 King Albert II of Belgium accepted Prime Minister Yve Leterme’s colation government’s resignation after futile blathering to resuscitate the government dissipated. This highlights one of the common themes in Europe as Belgium is a prototype of cultural differences with French and Dutch speaking communities disputing while the government debt as a percentage of GDP is over 100%. These giant parasitical vampire squids cannot be supported by the underlying <a title="humans are livestock" href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P772Eb63qIY" target="_blank">livestock base</a>. But a friendly tip, if you are in Bruges be sure to get a waffle as they are delectable.</p>
<p>Another fun example, also on 26 April 2010, hundreds of Greek air force pilots called in sick. Sure, these armed services members are not legally allowed to strike but such civil disobedience happens when members of the enforcer and brutalizing class do not get their paychecks or those paychecks are reduced due to ‘austerity measures’.</p>
<p>Sure, Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou incoherently babbles about cutting the budget deficit through structural reforms instead of salaries but the truth of the matter is that government, like the vampires in <a title="daybreakers" href="http://www.runtogold.com/daybreakersdvd" target="_blank">Daybreakers</a>, would rather suck the humans dry and then die than curb their appetite and coexist. It is economic law, not voluntary restraint by the vampire squids, through undulating waves of mass psychology that forces limited government.</p>
<p>Despite what Merkel and Germany do the die is already cast with regards to the Euro and Euro zone. Interest rates must go up and the market is already forcing this with rises in debt default insurance rates. Additionally, the European banking system is still in terrible condition. On 23 April 2010 Moody’s lowered National Bank of Greece’s credit rating one grade to A3/A. Other Greek banks will likely be downgraded such as Emporiki, Agrotiki Bank, Piraeaus Bank, Eurobank, and Alpha Bank. Plus, Belgium banks need to be cleansed along with plenty of other banks throughout Europe from England to Austria and France to Norway.</p>
<p><strong>THE EURO IS BROKEN</strong></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" style="margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto" src="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/wp-content/plugins/wp-o-matic/cache/21b83_broken-euro.jpg" alt="" width="384" height="205" />The Euro is broken. This was its destiny. This is the destiny of all fiat currencies. These bureau-rats cannot stop this anymore than <a title="cnut the great" href="http://www.runtogold.com/cnut the great" target="_blank">Cnut the Great</a> could command the tide to halt. If these impotent bureau-rats are so powerful then why did they fail to pass legislation commanding the ash cloud to disperse?</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" style="margin-right: auto;margin-left: auto" src="http://www.citizeneconomists.com/blogs/wp-content/plugins/wp-o-matic/cache/21b83_iceland-ash-cloud.jpg" alt="" width="520" height="340" />So what will a post Euro Europe look like? Hopefully, the Europeans do not go back to doing what they have been doing for thousands of years. But those are some of the ominous clouds on the horizon.</p>
<p><strong>CONCLUSION</strong></p>
<p>Gold has <strong>hit record highs</strong> around €860. The Euro is the only possible fiat contender as the world reserve currency and for rational investors it fails muster. Like the Euro the FRN$ is destined to evaporate but this will likely happen later and over a longer period of time.</p>
<p>As the political situation continues deteriorating in Europe holders of capital will continue turning towards the precious metals to protect and preserve their wealth. Europe has a rich culture, delicious foods and fine art. Hopefully I will be enjoying it next month and at a lower cost because of the evaporating Euro.</p>
<p>But Europe also has a savage past that only the <a title="vampire squids" href="http://www.runtogold.com/2009/11/starving-the-vampire-squids/" target="_blank">vampire squids</a> desire to see again. After all, luring countries to increase their debt load while destroying the production and productive capacity is bad for everyone but the <a title="wall street sociopaths" href="http://www.runtogold.com/2008/12/wall-street-is-full-of-sociopaths/" target="_blank">sociopathic bankers</a>. And I should be gone before that happens.</p>
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