By Simon Grey, on May 26th, 2011
I hope this isn’t the case, but if it is, it probably suggests a far more radical regulatory approach than the Independent Commission on Banking has considered. It might even point in the direction of ‘narrow’ or ‘limited purpose’ banking, which would involve imposing strict structural divisions in the finance industry, and require banks to hold dramatically higher levels of liquid reserves. Bank of England governor Mervyn King has nodded in this direction.
Of course, I’d much prefer the free market option, but the trouble with the Independent Commission on Banking’s proposals is – arguably – that they do neither one thing nor the other. They don’t eliminate moral hazard and risk subsidies or restore real market discipline to the financial sector. But they don’t offer a particularly strong regulatory response either. As such, the banking sector is liable to cause more problems in future.
Regulation is the natural and proper response to subsidies. If the government is going to subsidize something, it is only natural that the government also regulates it in order to ensure that the new incentives don’t lead to financial (or behavioral) malarkey. In fact, the general purpose of incentives is not to upend the market, but rather to tweak it slightly. Of course, not all consequences can be appreciated in advance, which is generally why regulation is an inevitable response to subsidies.
As such, there are two proper responses to subsidies: either abolish them, or regulate the recipients. The banking commission appears to have taken the worst approach, which combines the free-market approach to regulation coupled with an interventionist approach to subsidies. One need not be a genius to see that this plan is doomed. If the banking commission desires to be successful, it needs to have a consistent philosophical approach: either free markets or proper intervention. It does not need some half-way measure combining the two. Compromise is counterproductive and damaging in the long-run, and so the commission simply needs to get off the fence.
By Winton Bates, on December 6th, 2010

Before reading Eric Jones book, ‘Locating the Industrial Revolution’, I had thought that the reasons why the industrial revolution began when and where it did would have a lot to do with relative levels of economic freedom in England in the 18th and 19th centuries. The book seems to me to reinforce that view, even though it does not argue strongly in favour of it. The message I get from the book is that the political forces favouring greater economic freedom prevailed over opposing forces in those areas of economic policy that were most critical to economic growth at that time.

My prior view that the industrial revolution would have had a lot to do with relative levels of economic freedom was associated to some extent with dissatisfaction with alternative explanations such as that offered by Gregory Clark (discussed here). I admit, however, that my prior views were most strongly influenced by contemporary econometric evidence that greater economic freedom tends to promote higher economic growth. I would not be surprised if Eric Jones considers that such reasoning displays ‘too great a willingness to accept dubious data as proxies for the real thing, and too much of a preference for neat solutions’ (p. 6). He uses those words as a general criticism of economists.
The main question that Jones considers in this book is why the location of manufacturing industry shifted from the south to the north of England prior to the industrial revolution. This is an important question because the clustering of industry in the north provided an economic environment conducive to subsequent innovations, including use of coal-fired steam engines as an energy source.
Jones suggests that the economic history of England does not provide neat solutions to the problem of locating the industrial revolution. He claims:
‘There is no determinate solution to the puzzle of why the industrial revolution took place, and when and where it did so. All that can be achieved is a narrowing of the range of possible mixes’ (p. 245).
Jones sees problems with a simple explanation in terms of levels of economic freedom:
‘Ordinarily we might expect that economic growth would be spurred by market freedoms but there are problems with this line of argument. A number of the outcomes do not seem to have been stable. Free-market preferences within the judicial system were inconsistent, since the judges reverted to precedent when it suited them – not that every law was enforced. Protective duties were raised precisely when “a modest flow of works” was starting to extol the virtues of free trade. Nor was corruption decisively reduced until some way into the 19th century’ (p. 243).
However, similar objections have been raised against attempts to explain China’s economic growth in recent decades as a consequence of market freedoms. A point that is often overlooked is that in considering the potential for economic growth offered in a particular economy by a particular level of economic freedom the most relevant comparison is with levels of economic freedom generally prevailing in other economies with similar income levels. An improvement in economic freedom in a low income country can provide an impetus to more rapid growth even though economic freedom remains heavily restricted.
Jones suggests that the main factor responsible for the redistribution of manufacturing activity to northern England was market integration associated with improvements in transportation. The merging of markets led to greater competition and specialization on the basis of comparative advantage – with a greater focus on agriculture in the south and manufacturing in the north. He points out, however, that these improvements in transportation often had to overcome substantial political obstacles from wealthy land-owners, whose concern to protect the social status that land ownership offered (linked to landscapes, recreation and privacy) often outweighed their interest in increasing the rental value of their land. He suggests that privatising of rights of way – described as ‘judicial theft of the subjects rights’ – was an ‘astonishingly common’ adverse effect of the enclosure of the commons (p. 153). The merging of markets was only possible because the judges and parliament together increasingly embraced market ideology and overlooked, rejected or struck down local protectionist measures (p. 185).
It seems to me that Eric Jones has provided strong evidence that the industrial revolution occurred when and where it did because market ideology prevailed sufficiently to enable market integration, specialization on the basis of comparative advantage and the clustering of manufacturing industry. I am conscious, however, that he might suggest that in offering that summary my preference for neat solutions has gotten the better of me.
By Bron Suchecki, on June 2nd, 2010
Stumbled on the value of gold the BOE holds on custodial basis from a link in a Golden Sextant article.
Unfortunately, the annual reports only list gold value from 2005 onwards (note that BOE financial year end is 28 Feb):
Year, GBP value, ounces (based on GBP london PM fix on 28 feb)
2005, 25b, 110,368,454
2006, 35b, 110,035,903
2007, 43b, 126,857,129
2008, 72b, 147,283,237
2009, 102b, 152,282,217
Interesting that it was stable from 05 to 06, then starts increasing. 152 million oz = approx 4,700t, or 3% of all gold ever produced (160,000t). Hard to read anything into it as the holdings include other central bank holdings as well as other bullion bank and institutional holdings, but it is another indicator of increasing interest in gold.
By Ajay Shah, on December 23rd, 2009
- Tim Harford in the Financial Times on the skepticism about the extent to which microfinance matters.
- London’s attempts at turning away international finance: from the Economist, and Mint. Also see this piece from the Economist.
- M. R. Madhavan in Financial Express on the ineffectiveness of the UPA in translating Parliament time into economic reform.
- Michael Pomerleano on financial stability reform proposals.
- An idea from Ila Patnaik has popped up again.
- Sabrina Tavernise in the New York Times, on Syed Babar Ali, who started LUMS. Here’s a comparison, of the footprint of the name of the institution upon google scholar, of LUMS as compared with India’s ISB. LUMS was founded in 1986, and is well ahead of ISB in the extent to which they have evolved away from being a pure MBA program [undergraduate] [graduate].
- Ila Patnaik on the questions that RBI now faces on monetary policy.
- An eBook on financial reform, released by the Stern School of Business. A quick read of their chapter summaries gives you a sense of what they have done, and the questions faced in financial reform today on an international scale.
- In continuation of my recent article on the Bombay Club, do look at this view of Bajaj Auto by Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar.
- In Businessworld, Ashok Desai discusses a recent speech by Dr. Subbarao, and worries about competition amongst Indian banks.
- Ramachandra Guha in The Telegraph on India’s nuclear energy program. Also see these two old pieces (from 2005) by Ila Patnaik: one, two.
- Protectionism alert.
- Deborah Solomon interviews Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon, in the New York Times. More CEOs in India should learn to speak like this.
- The meaning of open, a beautiful essay by Jonathan Rosenberg, Senior Vice President, Product Management, Google. More SVPs in India should learn to think like this.
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