Piped natural gas (PNG) in India: Not priced to displace electricity

In continuation of my previous post on piped natural gas, I found that Mahanagar Gas charges Rs.33/m^3 for natural gas. The energy content is 8500 kcal/m^3 or 35.56 MJ/m^3. This corresponds to 10 kwhr i.e. 10 units. In the units of electricity pricing, then, this gas is priced at Rs.3.3 per unit (i.e. $0.066 per unit). This is slightly cheaper than electricity but not by much. I’d have expected gas to be cheaper than this. This isn’t a pricepoint at which one can obtain a big shift from electricity to NG. It is more convenient than shipping bottles around, but that’s about it.

For a comparison, in Los Angeles, the price of gas works out to $0.036 per kwhr while the price of electricity is $0.132 per kwhr. That is, piped electricity is 3.667 times costlier than piped gas. It makes you wonder about what we’re doing wrong with natural gas in India.

Residential water heating and the rise of the gas-fired economy

When electricity distribution networks fall into place, people start using electricity for everything. Heating, air conditioning, cooking, etc.: electricity is the supple path to all applications. Electricity is conveniently accessed at home, but at a system level, there are problems. Electricity is typically made in big facilities, primarily by burning coal or gas. It is then inefficiently transported to the home. Coal has the worst carbon footprint. Given the domination of coal in Indian electricity production, electricity consumption in India is highly carbon intensive.
Gas delivered to the home is a superior alternative, but this requires gas distribution to the home. A brand-new distribution infrastructure needs to be built, for delivering gas to the home. Once gas is at the home, it can be used for cooking and for heating. To the extent that this is done, it reduces the carbon footprint of residential energy consumption. And, given the way the world is going, gas delivered to the home is likely to be significantly cheaper (per joule) when compared with electricity, even without a carbon tax. (Question: Does someone know the price per joule for residential electricity versus piped gas in India?)
When we think about global warming in India, the dominant impulse is to say to the rich countries “this is not our problem; you guys loaded up the atmosphere with CO2, you guys fix it“. While this approach has strengths, it is also important for India to find low-carbon paths to development. We have a problem in having a highly coal-fired economy. We also have the malleability in having the bulk of our energy system of 2050 having not yet been built out: this gives us choices about what should be done. In contrast, most rich countries have less room to maneuver. Policy decisions in India will determine whether cities develop energy-efficient mass transportation systems (such as the Delhi Metro) or not; in contrast, there is no possibility of Los Angeles or the Bay Area developing a good transportation system.
I suspect that gas is likely to be India’s low-carbon bridge to renewables and nuclear, exactly as it will be for the rest of the world. From this perspective, we need to start looking for market-based channels to do more on building the gas ecosystem. One interesting litmus test that we can use is the number of households where one sees gas-fired water heating.
This requires distribution networks for gas, and then households have to switch from electric ovens, water heaters, stoves to gas-fired equivalents. In India, a few cities are now starting to have gas distribution to the home. In time, households should increasingly build up the capital stock of gas-fired appliances, motivated by the superior pricing of gas.
And this gives us an illustration of India’s malleability. The CMIE household survey shows that at present, 5.5% of households in India today have one or more geysers (this is for the quarter ended June 2011). For these 5.5% of households, there is the question of junking the existing capital stock and shifting over to a gas-fired appliance. Presumably the differential pricing of electricity versus gas will justify such a shift for the household, but for India, it is a waste when there is such destruction of capital stock. Far more interesting are the remaining 94.5% of households. We should be doing things today, so that over the next 25 years, when 94.5% of India’s households will buy a geyser, they will go towards a gas-fired heater rather than an electric one.
From this perspective, I was surprised to see a sales flyer of a small company — P. K. L. Ltd. — talking about a gas-fired water heater:

This was news, at least to me. I have never seen a gas-fired water heater being sold to a household before in India. I walked over to the Croma website and they don’t have one. Similarly, all the water heaters at ezone are electric. Amusingly enough, the P. K. L. Ltd. website also does not talk about a gas-fired water heater. So either this is vapourware or their website is not updated. Do you know any firm selling gas-fired water heating for homes in India, and do you know any home that has one?

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Renewable Energy: Rewiring America Green

According to the Energy Information Administration, the production facilities that in 2006 supplied the United States with 4,064,702,000 megawatts of electricity were mainly powered by coal (49%), natural gas (20%) and nuclear energy (19%). Clean, green and renewable sources lag far behind, with hydropower supplying 7% of U.S. electricity and renewable sources such as wind and solar only 2.4%. Although that balance has shifted slightly since those numbers were compiled, with wind power alone doubling in output capacity between 2005 and 2008, hydrocarbons continue to dominate the U.S. energy landscape.

<p>However, economically speaking, the major problem with the current method the U.S. uses to supply itself with power is not the generation system but rather the grid that transports it. For safety reasons, power production facilities are traditionally constructed at a distance from population centers, and the cost of connecting the two via high-voltage transmission lines is astronomical at best. When Texas recently formed plans to upgrade their grid system, channeling power from new windfarms in the Panhandle and West Texas to cities in the center and east of the state, they budgeted $1.5 million per mile for the lines and considered it reasonable. (There are a lot of miles in Texas, but at least that included the poles.)

<p><b>Small Generators</b>

<p>So if transmitting power is expensive, but large electrical generation facilities can’t be built near population centers, how about small ones? The burgeoning trend is for residences and businesses, particularly those in rural areas, to produce their own power through small wind or solar systems; however, rather than “going off the grid” in the classical manner, these small generators stay connected and feed any leftover power back to the grid.

<p>Under a system known as net metering, the meter runs backward when the small generator has power to spare and forward when clouds cluster and the wind dies. But an alternative system known as the feed-in tariff (FIT) requires the power company to actually purchase this electricity, meaning these small systems can pay for themselves and even earn a profit before they fall apart or become obsolete. After Germany initiated a FIT program in 1999, solar panels appeared on the roofs of Bavarian barns and small generation systems surged, now providing over 14% of German electricity.

<p>One problem is that, rather than spreading the initial capital costs across a large client base as the power company does, the family or business must eat it themselves. To address this, governments at all levels are increasingly providing incentives such as tax credits to make that investment more palatable. Back in Texas, for example, value added to real estate by the installation of a green generation system is exempt from property taxes, and businesses that manufacture, sell or install solar and wind energy products are exempt from corporate taxes entirely. And there’s no cap.

<p><a href=”http://www.dsireusa.org/index.cfm?EE=1&RE=1″ target=”_blank”>DSIRE</a>, the Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency, is a website maintained by the North Carolina State University’s Solar Center which provides lists of such incentives for all 50 states.

<p><b>Costs of Renewable Energy</b>

<p>Even with the transmission grid out of the picture, the cost of green generation remains a prohibitive factor. On average, despite a 5% rise in electricity prices in 2008 and another 10% expected in 2009, most U.S. customers, both residential and industrial, pay less than ten cents per kilowatt-hour for power or around a dollar per watt of generation capacity. This has come to be considered the “magic number” that green generation must meet or beat in order to compete, and for the most part, it’s just not there yet.

<p>Wind energy has come closest. The cost of wind generation varies inversely with the size of the turbine, and bigger, more efficient systems are currently very near that coveted level. Rural residential systems are hovering between $2 and $3 per watt. For rural areas with good wind resources, it’s become the small generation system of choice.

<p>Despite decades of research, solar energy remains expensive, and the classical photovoltaic system still costs $8 to $10 per watt installed, not counting the incentives. Solar shingles, a form of urban camouflage designed to pacify home owner associations, push the price up to $10 to $12 per watt but can be rolled into a mortgage like any other roof. However, thin film solar panels, which eliminate expensive silicon and instead use inkjet printers to distribute nanotechnological solar ink across almost any backing surface, have lowered the cost to around $2 per watt.