Be skeptical. Be very skeptical.

In recent months, we’ve had a few slip-ups by the official statistical system in India:

Yesterday’s IIP release was preceded by a mistake. Mint says: On Monday, the government was guilty of a similar error in its factory output data. Till it corrected the number pertaining to capital goods output, analysts were left scrambling . . . → Read More: Be skeptical. Be very skeptical.

Project Tanzanite: Obtaining fundamental progress in the macroeconomics of developing countries

I was at a meeting in London recently, organised by the IGC, on the subject of the research agenda in macroeconomics for developing countries. This made me think about how to make progress.

The US as the shared dataset for mainstream macroeconomics

All existing knowledge on macroeconomics is rooted in data about the US . . . → Read More: Project Tanzanite: Obtaining fundamental progress in the macroeconomics of developing countries

How Will We Know When The Bottom’s In Place?

Okay, so the U.S. is solidly in recessionary territory. The fundamental economic data are lousy, trends are down, consumers and businesses are retrenching, and nobody is happy. We know that, if current forecasts are accurate, the fourth quarter of 2008 will be the worst in terms of economic performance and at least the two . . . → Read More: How Will We Know When The Bottom’s In Place?