By B.P.T., on July 28th, 2010
The Mortgage Bankers’ purchase index was released at 7:00 AM EDT, and there was a week to week increase of 2.0% in the Purchase Index and a week to week decrease of 5.9% in the Refinance Index as the housing market showed a slight improvement for the second week in a row from the weakness shown since the second financial stimulus program for home sales came to a close at the end of April.
At 8:30 AM EDT, the Durable Goods Orders report for June will be released. The consensus is that there was a increase of 1.0% from May, which still be below the strong number reported in April.
At 10:30 AM EDT, the weekly Energy Information Administration Petroleum Status Report will be released, giving investors an update on oil inventories in the United States.
At 2:00 PM EDT, the Beige Book report will be released, giving us more information about economic conditions in each Federal Reserve district in advance of the next Fed meeting.
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By B.P.T., on April 23rd, 2010
At 8:30 AM EDT, the Durable Goods Orders report for March will be released. The consensus is that there was a gain of 0.4% from February, which would be the fourth consecutive month of gains.
At 10:00 AM EDT, the new home sales report for March will be released. The consensus is that 330,000 new homes were sold last month, which would be an increase over February, which was a very weak month for new home sales.
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By Eldon Mast, on February 26th, 2010
Improvement in the factory sector looked material last month. The overall level of durable goods orders jumped 3.0% and that followed an upwardly revised 1.9% December increase. Transportation spiked 15.6% in January after a 1.5% rise the month before. For the latest month, non-defense aircraft lifted-off to a monthly 126.0% increase; defense aircraft rose 11.6%;
The results far outpaced analyst expectations for only a 1.5% overall gain. The notable strength of course came from orders for non-defense aircraft & parts. Those gains that more than doubled, recouped any declines the prior two months.
Regardless of the aircraft sector, the durable factory goods sector appeared on the mend as well. Less the transportation sector, orders were enough to lift the y/y gain in orders to 8.6%. This strength suggests further improvement in shipments and that industrial output is accelerating after the modest y/y gains already logged in prior months.
Looking at core components, most of them posted gains. Leading those components: Computers & electronics were up 4.6% and communications equipment rose 3.1%. Also improving were primary metals, and electrical equipment.
Thursday’s report underscores a manufacturing sector that continues its path of accelerated Q1 growth.
By Eldon Mast, on September 2nd, 2009
Back in mid-July, Intel gave us the first glimpses of a stronger than expected Q3. They made it clear then that Q3 growth would be anything but lackluster. On Friday they underscored that assertion by further raising their Q3 outlook. Now it’s likely that their strong growth will extend into Q4.
Intel also surprised in the second quarter when its sales and profit easily beat Wall Street’s expectations. Not only did Intel raise sales estimates on Friday, but also signaled better profit expectations by announcing a better gross margin forecast for the quarter.
In addition to the good news wrap from Intel on Friday, this week was full of positive indications of a better than expected rest of the year…
1. Most economists forecast the government to downgrade their GDP estimates for the second quarter to -1.5%. Instead the government’s revised reading on gross domestic product was unchanged from a previous estimate at -1.0% for Q2.
2. Computer maker Dell reported earnings that easily beat analysts’ estimates on Thursday. Like Intel, Dell also expects stronger sales in the second half of the year. Dell hasn’t had much good news to report in the last year and many analysts use Dell results as a barometer for corporate spending in the coming months.
3. Also on Thursday, the government reported that initial and continuing claims for unemployment continued to fall. Earlier in the week the Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index skyrocketed to 54.1 in August from an upwardly-revised 47.4 in July.
4. And news on the home front was also extremely positive. In a joint report issued by the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development, new homes sold at an annualized rate of 433,000 during July. That was up almost 10% from the rate in June and the highest rate since last September. The report comes right on the heels of earlier home market positives including spikes in existing home sales, home prices and housing purchase affordability.
5. But what is likely the best evidence of significant second half growth was a durable goods order surge in July. Those orders rose 4.9%, the largest increase in two years. Civilian aircraft orders jumped, while the reopening of Chrysler and General Motors assembly plants reflects a welcome increase in orders for motor vehicles.
Earlier in the month we warned to not be surprised by a strong Q3. It now appears that Q4 will be quite strong as well.
By Eldon Mast, on May 29th, 2009
Strong demand for communications equipment, machinery and fabricated metal led an upbeat durable goods report for April. Overall orders jumped by 1.9%.
Most analysts were wrong and had expected only a rise of 0.4%.
The bounce in new orders was broad but was led by communication equipment which alone was up 6.9 percent. Significant new orders were also seen for fabricated metals, machinery, primary metals, and electrical equipment. The monthly upward momentum was the best since December 2007.
The report also comes at a time when the cost of shipping raw materials has now jumped almost vertically. The Baltic Dry Index is up 377% from its December low.
Additional good news on the employment front posted on Thursday. New claims for unemployment continue to fall as does the 4 week moving average. The new data further solidifies Bob Gordon’s assertion that the latest (and several weeks past) peak in claims will be the clear marker for this recession’s end.
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