The Recovery Is an Illusion: John Williams

John Williams, author of the ShadowStats.com newsletter, shines light on his interpretations of the GDP, CPI, unemployment and other government statistics in this exclusive Gold Report interview from the recent Recovery Reality Check conference. Highlights include what the money supply measures tell him and why QE3 will be a hard sell.

The . . . → Read More: The Recovery Is an Illusion: John Williams

A Third Option

Karl Denninger:

In many ways the monetary policy issue is even more important, simply because we are running out of rope on our national debt-addiction rappelling adventure and the floor is still 100′ down.  That’s a serious problem — and “gold standards” do not (in fact cannot!) fix it.  The only fix that works is to demand and enforce a . . . → Read More: A Third Option

Are the inflationary fires subsiding?

On 25 October, Dr. Subbarao announced a 25 basis point hike in the policy rate. Alongside this, he made statements that were widely interpreted as being dovish:

Keeping in view the domestic demand-supply balance, the global trends in commodity prices and the likely demand scenario, the baseline projection for WPI inflation for March 2012 . . . → Read More: Are the inflationary fires subsiding?

Fighting back inflation is cheaper when there is credibility: A numerical example

A few days ago, I wrote a blog post about India’s inflation crisis. For five years now, in every single month, the y-o-y CPI inflation has exceeded 5%. Under these conditions, economic agents have little confidence that RBI cares about inflation. They are now reporting double digit inflationary expectations. Under these conditions, inflation will . . . → Read More: Fighting back inflation is cheaper when there is credibility: A numerical example

Reining in the inflationary dragon

A lot is being written about inflation in India today. I thought it’s worth writing about the fascinating insights into inflation that come from focusing on the distinction between tradeables and non-tradeables.

What is a tradeable

A tradeable is a product which can be transported across the world at relatively low cost. As an . . . → Read More: Reining in the inflationary dragon

Kicking the wheels of the new CPI

Inflation measurement is a critical component of macroeconomic policy. In a recent paper, Patnaik et. al. have argued that while the CPI-IW has many problems, these difficulties are not first order, and that the CPI-IW can yield a reasonable measure of inflation today.

On 18 February 2011, CSO released a new CPI with base . . . → Read More: Kicking the Wheels of the New CPI

How to measure inflation in India

Ila Patnaik, Giovanni Veronese and I have a paper titled How to Measure Inflation in India?. The abstract reads:

What is the best inflation measure in India? What inflation measure is most relevant for monetary policy making in India? Questions of timeliness, weights in the price index, accuracy of food price measurement, and . . . → Read More: How to Measure Inflation in India

Economic Events on April 14, 2010

The Mortgage Bankers’ purchase index was released at 7:00 AM EDT, and there was a week to week decrease of 10.5% last week, due to an increase in FHA mortgage premiums and causing concern about the housing market as the second federal stimulus program comes to an end.

At 8:30 AM EDT, the Consumer . . . → Read More: Economic Events on April 14, 2010

The Decline of the Left

riting in Business Standard today, Surjit Bhalla has a table of the vote share of the CPI and the CPI(M) put together. I thought it would be useful to see this data as a time-series, so here is the result.

Click on the graph to see it more clearly. Each circle is a data . . . → Read More: The Decline of the Left