Global Aluminum Demand Rebound is Largest in Nearly 15 Years

Aluminum demand rebounded 14 percent in 2010, the biggest increase since at least 1996, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and reported on Monday. The worlds largest aluminum producer, Alcoa also reported that global consumption will likely continue to increase in 2011 — probably by at least 12 percent.

Alcoa also reported its highest profit in nine quarters revealing that the price of its product is now approaching pre-recession levels.

Additionally, Chief Financial Officer Chuck McLane said, “Each of our businesses was able to significantly improve their performance.” Demand strengthened in most of the Alcoa markets and productivity gained.

And the good news for jobs in the industry? The company said it will restore idled production at three U.S. plants in 2011. More evidence that the 2011 labor market is on the mend.

Economic Events on December 22, 2010

The Mortgage Bankers’ Association purchase index was released at 7:00 AM EST, and there was a week to week decrease of 2.5% in the Purchase Index and a week to week decrease of 24.6% in the Refinance Index as interest rates hit a six month high.

At 8:30 AM EST, the final GDP report for the third quarter of 2010 will be announced.  The consensus is an increase of 3.0% in real GDP and an increase of 2.3% in the GDP price index.  The real GDP estimate is 0.5% higher than the preliminary estimate for this quarter from last month, and the GDP price index estimate remained the same.

Also at 8:30 AM EST, the Corporate Profits report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis will be released.

At 10:00 AM EST, the Existing Home Sales report for November will be released.  The consensus is that existing homes were sold at an annual rate of 4.75 million last month, which would be an increase of 320,000 from last month.

Also at 10:00 AM EST, the FHFA House Price Index for October will be released, providing more information about the direction of the housing market.

At 10:30 AM EST, the weekly Energy Information Administration Petroleum Status Report will be released, giving investors an update on oil inventories in the United States.

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Economic Events on November 23, 2010

At 7:45 AM EST, the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales report will be released, giving an update on the health of the consumer through this analysis of retail sales.

At 8:30 AM EST, the preliminary GDP report for the third quarter of 2010 will be announced.  The consensus is an increase of 2.4% in real GDP and an increase of 2.3% in the GDP price index.  The real GDP estimate is 0.4% higher than the advance estimate for this quarter from last month, and the GDP price index estimate remained the same.

Also at 8:30 AM EST, the Corporate Profits report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis will be released.

At 8:55 AM EST, the weekly Redbook report will be released, giving us more information about consumer spending.

At 10:00 AM EST, the Existing Home Sales report for October will be released.  The consensus is that existing homes were sold at an annual rate of 4.5 million last month, which would be a slight decrease from September, but shows continued improvement after the end of the incentives included in the economic stimulus package.

At 2:15 PM EST, the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released, which will provide insight into how the Federal Reserve board governors and bank presidents view the economy.

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Economic Events on September 30, 2010

At 8:30 AM EDT, the U.S. government will release its weekly Jobless Claims report.  The consensus is that there were 459,000 new jobless claims last week, which would would be 6,000 less than last week’s higher than expected number.

Also at 8:30 AM EDT, the final GDP report for the second quarter of 2010 will be announced.  The consensus is an increase of 1.6% in real GDP and an increase of 1.9% in the GDP price index.  The real GDP estimate is the same as the preliminary estimate for this quarter from last month, and the GDP price index estimate is rising due to increasing import prices.

Also at 8:30 AM EDT, the Corporate Profits report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis will be released.

At 9:45 AM EDT, the Chicago PMI Index for September will be announced.  The consensus index value is 56, which is 0.7 points lower than last month, but is still well above the break-even level at 50.

At 10:00 AM EDT, Ben Bernanke will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on implementing Dodd-Frank reforms, along with Neal Wolin, Sheila Bair, Mary Schapiro and Gary Gensler.

At 10:30 AM EDT, the weekly Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Report will be released, giving an update on natural gas inventories in the United States.

At 2:30 PM EDT, Ben Bernanke will lead a town hall meeting with educators and take questions from all around the country.

At 4:30 PM EDT, the Federal Reserve will release its Money Supply report, showing the amount of liquidity available in the U.S. economy.

Also at 4:30 PM EDT, the Federal Reserve will release its Balance Sheet report, showing the amount of liquidity the Fed has injected into the economy by adding or removing reserves.

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Economic Events on August 27, 2010

At 8:30 AM EDT, the preliminary GDP report for the second quarter of 2010 will be announced.  The consensus is an increase of 1.3% in real GDP and an increase of 1.8% in the GDP price index.  The real GDP estimate is 1.1% lower than the advance estimate for this quarter, and the GDP price index estimate is rising due to increasing import prices.

Also at 8:30 AM EDT, the Corporate Profits report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis will be released.

At 9:55 AM EDT, Consumer Sentiment for the second half of August will be announced.  The consensus is that the index will be at 69.6, which is the same value reported in the first half of the month.

At 10:00 AM EDT, Ben Bernanke will give a speech at the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference on the economic outlook in the United States.

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General Motors: “Extraordinary Turnaround”

On Thursday, General Motors Corp. posted its best quarterly profit in six years in one of the clearest signs yet the ailing automaker (and its beleaguered industry) is on a road to recovery.

The record profits were posted slightly more than 12 months after a steep drop-off in sales caused by the financial crisis of 2008/2009.

GM says that the strong profits will pave the way for the company file for an IPO and begin to rid itself of a more than US$50-billion taxpayer liability — company equity that is majority owned by the U.S. government.

Total second-quarter earnings came in at US$1.3-billion, a huge reversal from the US$12.9-billion it lost in the same period a year ago. Revenue jumped 44% to US$33.2-billion during the quarter.

Last year the government had estimated that it would take perhaps 8 years for the GM to pay taxpayers back. The quick GM rebound however has surprised even the most optimistic of forecasts.

“Given the extraordinary turnaround — frankly, faster and better than what we had imagined — I think the IPO could be very successful if the overall markets co-operate,” Steven Rattner, the Obama administration’s former Car Czar, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

Flu down; Profit Up at Aetna

On Tuesday Aetna Inc. lifted its 2010 earnings forecast a second time after the firm reported milder-than-expected flu season. The good news about flu this year tacked one more positive in an earnings season that has been dominated by profit results and increasingly positive projections.

The firm now projects that their operating earnings may reach $3.05 to $3.15 a share in the upcoming quarter. That’s significantly up from their earlier forecast of $2.75 to $2.85 in April.

In further positive economic stimulus, Aetna’s Chief Financial Officer Joseph Zubretsky said that in addition to healthy profit for the firm in the second half of 2010, the company will also increase their spending to upgrade computer systems.

For the 2Q 2010, net income rose 42 percent to $491 million easily topping most medical market analyst expectations.

Source:  Aetna

Economic Events on June 25, 2010

Also at 8:30 AM EDT, the final GDP report for the first quarter of 2010 will be announced.  The consensus is an increase of 3.0% in real GDP and an increase of 1.0% in the GDP price index.  The real GDP estimate is slightly lower than the preliminary estimate for the quarter while the price index estimate increased by 0.1%.  These levels indicate moderate economic growth.

Also at 8:30 AM EDT, the Corporate Profits report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis will be released.

At 9:55 AM EDT, Consumer Sentiment for the second half of June will be announced.  The consensus is that the index will be at 75.5, which is the same level reported in the first half of the month.

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The BP Mess Is A Natural Punishment

The entire system around which daily life is organized in the United States, undergirded by the Federal Reserve Note dollar, is crumbling. Both long-term trends and externalities, like the BP mess, are natural and predictable consequences. Inertia is such a strong force that the avoidable often becomes, in the macro, unavoidable. But individually you can starve the vampire squid institutions and organizations and in doing so likely increase your health, wealth and happiness.

bp oil spill

PUNISHMENT FOR NATIONAL SINS

In the grand picture this BP mess in the Gulf of Mexico is a tiny and immaterial result from using a fiat currency and fractional reserve banking system.

The Founding Fathers were a particularly contentious lot during the Constitutional Convention. A major point of disagreement was slavery and the slave-trade compromise hinged on a clause found in the United States Constitution Article I Section 9 Clause 1 which contained an interesting word: dollar. Obviously, if the term dollar did not have a commonly accepted definition then this slave-trade compromise would not have been agreed to in the convention. But now the question What Is A Dollar? has no intelligible answer under federal law.

George Mason, a slaveowner, famous American Revolutionary Statesman, Delegate from Virginia to the Constitutional Convention and the “Father of the Bill of Rights” said,

Every master of slaves is born a petty tyrant. They bring the judgement of heaven upon a country. As nations cannot be rewarded or punished in the next world, they must be in this. By an inevitable chain of causes and effects, Providence punishes national sins, by national calamities.

The slavery issue, which could have been addressed and settled at the Founding, was instead, because of inertia, postponed until it erupted in a bloody crisis led by America’s greatest despot. The monetary issue, in contrast, was settled at the Founding and has been steadily eroded since until the United States and the world now finds itself in a very difficult and dangerous predicament.

Individuals, cities, counties and States are using Federal Reserve Note Dollars as legal tender and this is unconstitutional. Of course, the United States Supreme Court has not and most likely will never address the issue and so it is left to fester and boil until an avoidable crisis becomes unavoidable. Dr. Edwin Vieira in Pieces of Eight foresaw, chronicled and forewarned about all of this. It seems Seth Lipsky of the Wall Street Journal, like most in the Establishment, is a little late, ignorantly or deliberately? Inertia.

GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIZED OIL

Since Henry Ford refined the assembly line into an efficient factory the United States has been favoring oil through tax policy which has artificially stimulated demand. Now the entire American infrastructure has been built around this premise and as Dick Cheney says, “The American way of life is not negotiable.” Just ask Saddam, Obama or Ron Paul.

Of course, a couple natural byproducts of this favorable tax policy for both supply and demand of oil, ranging from highway funding or the public school transportation system to the primary residence interest tax deduction or municipal bond tax exemption, is lower cost resulting in increased demand and the rise of special interest groups such as Big Oil. Then supply which would most likely not ordinarily be produced is sought for production instead of substitute or alternative goods which often encounter legislative barriers to entry. Special legislation is enacted to protect suppliers against externalities so that the commodity can be provided at a lower cost which further feeds demand. The governmental intervention changes the economics; the economics guide the culture and ultimately impacts behavior.

Then, BAM! An externality black swan lands like the Exxon Valdez mess or BP’s massive pollution of the Gulf of Mexico. Sure, Exxon probably does not intend to wreck the oil tanker but if they can privatize the gains and socialize the losses then it would create shareholder value.

While Exxon polluted Valdez on 24 March 1989 the case was finally heard on appeal to the United States Supreme Court on 27 February 2008, about 19 years later and the decision merely remanded the case back down to the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals and limited the punitive damages to the compensatory damages of $507.5M even though Exxon’s behavior was ‘worse than negligent but less than malicious’. In the meantime, after the first verdict JP Morgan Chase created the first CDS for Exxon in 1994 because of the initial $5B punitive damage award and inflation has since eroded the vast majority of the value of 507.5M Federal Reserve Note Dollars. Thus began the rise of the derivative industry.

While President Obama is strutting around browbeating BP the outcome will likely be similar to Exxon’s which is still unresolved even though three United States Presidents have completed five terms. For example, Exxon posted record profits of $45.2B in 2008. This is an example of privatizing the gains and socializing the losses. Likewise BP will probably privatize the gains with their average net income for the last three years of $21.316B while socializing most of the losses resulting from this massive corporate defecation in the Gulf. Inertia at work to sustain the unsustainable system which had its genesis decades ago.

CONCLUSION

BP’s massive pollution of the Gulf of Mexico will have a tremendous negative impact on millions and millions of people. But BP, like the investment banks they are intertwined with, will likely be able to privatize the gains from oil production and socialize many of the losses. This is just a single example of ‘an inevitable chain of causes and effects’ that are driven by physical and economic law.

But if you think the pollution in the Gulf of Mexico is tremendous then I doubt you understand the scale of the damaging externalities resulting from the current worldwide monetary system. In the grand picture this BP mess in the Gulf of Mexico is a tiny and immaterial result from using a fiat currency and fractional reserve banking system. Exxon Valdez, BP Gulf of Mexico, Chernobyl, Soylent Green, Union Carbide’s Bhopal, the American military, the Health Care Bill, Monsanto’s Food Inc, and etc.

Using a sound money system as demanded by the United States Constitution while boycotting fractional reserve banking, in other words starving the vampire squid, is one way to protect and preserve both your personal health and the environment. In other words, stop paying these institutions and organizations to kill you and destroy the environment! To the extent possible, move your money, support HR 4248, alter your habits, change your buying patterns, cancel your cable, buy gold, and boycott unethical, immoral and damaging companies. You will likely be healthier, wealthier and happier if you do.

DISCLOSURE: Long physical gold, silver and platinum with no interest the XOM, BP, the problematic SLV or GLD ETFs or the platinum ETFs.

Is State Sovereignty Relevant to Resource Rent Taxation?

The Henry tax review into Australia’s future tax system recommends:

‘Subject to transitional arrangements, the new rent-based tax should apply to existing projects, replacing existing charging arrangements. The allocation of revenue and risks from the new tax should be negotiated between the Australian and State governments’.
The federal government seems to be attempting to ignore this advice in imposing the new tax. It is proposing to reimburse mining companies for existing royalty payments rather than to replace existing charging arrangements. It has decided unilaterally how it proposes to use the additional revenue from the new tax. In selling the tax to the Australian public it is asserting that mineral resources are owned by all Australians, contrary to the legal position of ownership by the Crown, with state governments having constitutional authority for resource management.

The government of Western Australia is threatening a constitutional challenge to the new tax, but the federal government doesn’t seem to be particularly concerned about this. I’m no lawyer, but I imagine the federal government think they are on safe ground in calling the tax a profits tax rather than a resource rent tax.

However, even if the new tax is legal, I think the federal government should be concerned about the viability of their proposal not to reimburse mining companies for any new or additional royalties that might be charged by state governments. Whatever the High Court might decide about the validity of the new federal tax, it is not likely to rule that the imposition of a new tax by the federal government has extinguished the rights of state governments to raise royalty rates.

Are state governments likely to impose additional royalties? Some proposals for higher royalties were already in the pipeline in Western Australia prior to announcement of the new federal tax and it is possible that these charges will be accommodated in transitional arrangements. The state governments review their royalty charges from time to time and I imagine that they will continue to do so. It is quite possible that having read and digested the Henry report a state government could decide to change the basis of their charging arrangements to a resource rent tax and to increase revenues from the resources sector. In considering such a change the state government might note that there is nothing particularly magical about the 40 percent tax rate proposed by the federal government. They might even read in the Henry report that Norway imposes a total tax rate on petroleum rents of 78 percent.

The point I am leading to is that the new federal tax has not extinguished the potential for state governments to raise royalty rates. This remains a potential source of sovereign risk for mining investment in Australia. This consideration is additional to the argument in my earlier post (Does a resource rent tax solve the problem of sovereign risk?) that the proposed application of the new tax to existing mines would lead investors to perceive that they have under-estimated sovereign risks in Australia. Even if the federal government comes up with satisfactory transitional arrangements for the new tax, miners will still need to factor into their calculations an allowance for possible future increases in state government royalties.

In my view the federal government should take another look at the recommendations of the Henry report and seek negotiations with state governments about the allocation of revenue and risks from their proposed resources rent tax.