Case Shiller: More Signs of Housing Price Recovery

U.S. housing prices are showing more signs of recovery. On Tuesday Case-Shiller released their index of home prices in 20 cities and it rose 0.6 percent in February from last year. The National Association of Realtors reported last week that existing-home prices advanced 0.4 percent in March as sales climbed for the first time in four months.

An abundance of inexpensive homes and a stabilizing job market are helping support housing demand, according to Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist for Barclays Capital:

Affordable home prices and the improving economy are doing more to lift sales than the tax credit. Consumers are becoming more confident about a major purchase such as a house. We’ll see a surge as buyers rush to close before the deadline, followed by a subsequent falloff. After that dip, we expect home sales to increase for the rest of the year.

“We’ve turned a corner with housing,” said economist Karl Case, who with Robert Shiller created the index. “As long as mortgage rates don’t jump and employment continues to improve, we should see housing play a key role in preventing a double-dip recession.”

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index is based on repeat transactions and measures the appreciation or depreciation for same the houses as they are resold over time. Many agree that this index is probably one of the best measures of changes in home prices.

The performance of home prices obviously continues to vary widely around the country. During February, the 12-month gain in prices was strongest in the West while prices in Washington D.C. and Dallas rose moderately.

The data continues to point to an extended price recovery, a trend that the index first highlighted back in February.

Economic Events on April 27, 2010

The weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales report will be released at 7:45 AM EDT, and another strong week of sales is expected.

At 8:55 AM EDT, the weekly Redbook report will be released, giving us more information about consumer spending.

The monthly S&P/Case-Shiller home price index report will be released at 9:00 AM EDT.  Given that most economists don’t expect the overall U.S. economy to improve until housing prices end their decline, the market will be watching this number closely.

The monthly report on Consumer Confidence for April will be released at 10:00 AM EDT.  The consensus index level is 53.5, which would be a slight increase over March, and this report will be watched closely by the market because of the drop in consumer sentiment reported earlier this month.

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Home Prices Continue Seasonal Improvement

Seasonal factors play an important part in the monitoring housing prices, pushing up prices during the high traffic months of the spring and summer and pulling them down in the cold of the fall and winter.

The Case-Shiller data on home prices was released on Tuesday. When seasonally adjusted, the data points to an extended price recovery, at plus 0.3 percent in December vs. 0.2 percent gains in the prior three months going back to September. These results point to a building on top of last years mid-year gains.

City-by-city, the data shows consistent improvement continuing to build in the West and the Midwest. The narrower 10 City Composite Index also accelerated to a gained 0.3% following three months of only a 0.2% increase.