U.S. Economics « Citizen Economists

Economic Events on May 11, 2012

By B.P.T., on May 11th, 2012

At 8:30 AM Eastern time, the Producer Price Index for April will be released. The consensus is that the index was unchanged last month, and was increased 0.2% when food and energy are excluded.

At 9:55 AM Eastern time, Consumer Sentiment for the first half of May will be announced. The consensus is that the index will be at 76.2, which would be an decrease of 0.2 points from the level reported in the second half of last month.

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Economic Events on May 10, 2012

By B.P.T., on May 10th, 2012

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at the 48th Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition.

At 8:30 AM Eastern time, the U.S. government will release its weekly Jobless Claims report. The consensus is that there were 366,000 new jobless claims last week, which would would be 1,000 more than the previous week.

Also at 8:30 AM Eastern time, the International Trade report for March will be released. The consensus is a deficit of $49.5 billion, which would be $3.5 billion larger than the previous month.

Also at 8:30 AM Eastern time, the Import and Export Prices index for April will be released, providing some data that can be used to monitor the threat of inflation.

At 9:45 AM Eastern time, the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index will be released, providing an update on Americans’ views of the U.S. economy, their personal finances and the buying climate.

At 10:30 AM Eastern time, the weekly Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Report will be released, giving an update on natural gas inventories in the United States.

At 2:00 PM Eastern time, the Treasury budget for April will be released, providing an account of the federal government’s budget surplus or deficit for that month.

At 4:30 PM Eastern time, the Federal Reserve will release its Money Supply report, showing the amount of liquidity available in the U.S. economy.

Also at 4:30 PM Eastern time, the Federal Reserve will release its Balance Sheet report, showing the amount of liquidity the Fed has injected into the economy by adding or removing reserves.

Economic Events on May 9, 2012

By B.P.T., on May 9th, 2012

The Mortgage Bankers’ Association purchase index will be released at 7:00 AM Eastern time, providing an update on the quantity of new mortgages and refinancings closed in the last week.

At 10:00 AM Eastern time, the Wholesale Trade report will be released for March, showing inventory levels for wholesalers in the United States. The consensus is that wholesale inventories increased 0.6%.

At 10:30 AM Eastern time, the weekly Energy Information Administration Petroleum Status Report will be released, giving investors an update on oil inventories in the United States.

Economic Events on May 8, 2012

By B.P.T., on May 8th, 2012

At 7:30 AM Eastern time, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April will be released, providing information regarding the health and confidence of small businesses in the United States. The consensus is that the index is at a level of 93.0, which is 0.5 points higher than the previous month’s value.

At 7:45 AM Eastern time, the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales report will be released, giving an update on the health of the consumer through this analysis of retail sales.

At 8:55 AM Eastern time, the weekly Redbook report will be released, giving us more information about consumer spending.

Is being sent to Pennsylvania as bad as an assignment on a North Sea oil rig?

By Christopher Briem, on May 7th, 2012

Why do I have to read in the Ohio media the clearest explanation of how the Marcellus workforce in Western Pennsylvania operates? Likely the paradigm for all of Pennsylvania I would guess. In the Akron Beacon Journal today: Ohio can learn from Texas’ experience with fracking industry, is this sentence:

Every two weeks, driller Sean Nagel Mueller, his brother, Warren, and about a dozen others board a flight for Dallas-Fort Worth or Pittsburgh. Nagel Mueller works a two-week hitch of 12-hour days on a rig in Washington County in southwest Pennsylvania.

It turns out that the two week cycle is exactly the same as what is typical for workers sent to rigs in the North Sea. The North Sea mind you is one of the worst places to work in the world.

That one sentence also explains what is behind some passenger trends at the airport of course. We won’t even get into the bigger labor force issues that are at issue in that. What I really want to know is why Ohio is not learning from Pennsylvania?

Economic Events on May 7, 2012

By B.P.T., on May 7th, 2012

At 3:00 PM Eastern time, the Consumer Credit report for March will be released. The consensus estimate is that there will be an increase of $9.8 billion in the consumer credit available, after an increase of $8.7 billion in the previous month.

The Great Allegheny County Assessment Paradox

By Christopher Briem, on May 4th, 2012

Let’s call this the great Allegheny County assessment paradox.

Washington Plaza Downtown is being put up for sale with an asking price of $55 million.

Note that its current base year assessment: $23 million.

Its new 2012 assessment: $30 million.

I have no idea, but I bet they are appealing nonetheless. Sure, they are asking for more than they will likely get… but are they going to get half of what they are asking. And have we fixed the transfer tax problem here in Allegheny County?

Note from the story the current ownership of the building… the Detroit public pension system. Maybe they will make up what they lost on their casino investment here?

Note also the view from the window. Circa May 1, 1964. Alcoa would own the building until 1973. Everything in town is connected.

My mind wanders. So if the building’s assessment went from 23 to 30 million, it is highly likely that the property tax bill on the property is going down. If so it leads to a simple and unavoidable conclusion. A lower tax bill ought to be capitalized into the value of the building. In other words, a lower tax bill should push up the value of the building. Detroit’s public pension system is thus going to benefit from Allegheny County’s assessment.

Economic Events on May 4, 2012

By B.P.T., on May 4th, 2012

The Monster Employment Index for April was released today, and the index moved up 3 points from last month to a value of 146, and is 1% higher than last April’s value.

At 8:30 AM EDT, the Employment Situation report for April will be announced, and the consensus for non-farm payrolls is an increase of 165,000 jobs compared to 120,000 in the previous month, the consensus for the unemployment rate is that it will remain at 8.2%, the consensus average hourly earnings rate is expected to increase 0.2%, and the consensus for the average workweek is 34.5 hours.

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City Living

By Christopher Briem, on May 3rd, 2012

So an overly curious mind has me wondering what the state of the Downtown condo market is of late. Just thinking because I first saw this note of a refinancing of Piatt Place, aka the former Lazarus, aka once the center of all dire talk on the future of Downtown. News said it was able to get a refinancing for $33 million and I just wanted to see how that compared to its new assessment value. That got a bit too complicated to do quickly since I can’t tell what exactly was being refinanced. It is a condo unit so I presume the refinancing is for that part of the building Millcraft or related entities own.

But it got me poking back at this PG article from 3 years ago: Downtown condo sales are going well in some spots, not so well in others. Specifically it said at the time that “About a block away, at the former Lazarus-Macy’s store, 34 of 60 luxury condos priced from $300,000 have been sold. Only six of those sales have come since August.”. There is a later quote that says “…. Downtown is the hottest market in Pittsburgh.” Pretty declarative statements.

Since the new assessment data is out I was curious what those units have all sold for. Since it implies 57% of the units were already sold 3 years ago, it must be mostly sold by now I thought. I dunno. In the assessment records I count 66 residential condo units with a property address of 301 Fifth Ave in Downtown Pittsburgh. Of those 66 units, 28 have listed as their owner “Piatt Place Downtown Pittsburgh Residential LP”. At first blush it implies 28 units are unsold as yet. Spot checking those 28 units find no transaction history in the assessment records.

So I leave it as a question whether those units, or more generally how many Downtown condos built over the last decade, are sold as yet. A question that comes up on occassion is related to all that. For the units that are sold, are they all permanent residents here. There is a sense many are not the primary residences of the owners. Plenty of rich diasporans out there who might want a stake in the hometown is a theory. Nothing wrong with that all, but it does get to the question of what the impact is on population. I presume some unsold condo’s could be rented out though I am not privy to what the condo bylaws allow. No doubt there are new people living Downtown over the last decade, I am just wondering how many and whether the fairly significant investment in the new Downtown condo-collective has sparked a sustaining (i.e. non-subsidized) private sector market there yet.

So just some questions… or stories to follow up on.

Economic Events on May 3, 2012

By B.P.T., on May 3rd, 2012

The monthly Chain Store Sales report will be released today. This report on sales in chain stores gives a look at the health of stores that make up about 10% of all retail sales.

The Challenger Job-Cut Report will be released at 7:30 AM Eastern time, providing an estimate of the number of layoffs in November.

At 8:30 AM Eastern time, the U.S. government will release its weekly Jobless Claims report. The consensus is that there were 378,000 new jobless claims last week, which would would be 10,000 less than the previous week.

Also at 8:30 AM Eastern time, the Productivity and Costs report for the first quarter of 2012 will be released. The consensus is that non-farm productivity decreased by 0.4% in the last quarter and labor unit costs increased 2.5%.