U.S. retail sales posted a surprising gain in February despite falling car demand amid trouble at auto maker Toyota MotorCorp. and fierce blizzards that crippled the East Coast for days.

Retail sales rose last month by 0.3%, the Commerce Department said Friday. An average of economists surveyed had forecast a 0.3% decrease in February sales. The Super Bowl early in the month had electronic store sales bounding higher.

“This is a pleasant surprise, especially in the light of the severe winter weather across large parts of the country last month,” said Ian Shepherdson, an analyst at High Frequency Economics.

Retail sales data are an important indicator of consumer spending and consumer spending makes up 70% of demand in the U.S. economy.

The unexpected increase moved Macroeconomic Advisers to pushed their forecast for first-quarter gross domestic product growth way up, by four-tenths to 3.1%. Other analysts agree with the strong first quarter forecast.

“Consumers are beginning to come out of their shells,” IHS Global Insight analyst Nigel Gault said. “Today’s data suggests that real consumer spending will rise about 3% in the first quarter, the fastest increase in three years.”

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The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter. It is the most extensive forward-looking survey of its kind, unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus. The Survey has been running for more than 45 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is based on interviews with over 61,000 public and private employers worldwide and is considered a highly respected economic indicator.

According to the Survey released on Tuesday, employers in most major labor markets expect to hire in the second quarter at a pace equal to, or stronger than, the same period last year.

Many employers have yet to reach their pre-downturn hiring pace, but prospects in the Asia Pacific, the Americas, Europe, and the US, are all registering modest improvements compared to three months ago and the same period last year. Employer hiring intentions are strongest in India, Brazil and Taiwan.

In the US, nearly three-quarters of employers surveyed say they plan to keep staff levels stable, Manpower said, while 12 of 13 industry sectors surveyed said they plan to add staff during the second-quarter. “We continue to see encouraging signs in hiring activity in the U.S.,” said Manpower CEO Jeff Joerres in a statement. “Key industries such as manufacturing and construction are seeing notable improvements on a year-over-year basis.”

The Manpower survey shows employers in 27 of 36 countries and territories expect some positive hiring activity in the second quarter. Employers in Panama were surveyed for the first time this quarter and report upbeat hiring plans for the next three months.

Of the 10 countries surveyed in the Americas region, hiring plans are stronger in comparison to one year ago in all countries where year-over-year data is available and stronger in six countries quarter-over-quarter. Regional hiring plans are again strongest in Brazil, Costa Rica and Peru. At the same time, hiring expectations from U.S. employers are stronger than those reported in the second quarter of 2009.

The survey adds to a mounting list of evidence that labor markets have turned the corner with healthy net US job additions in the months to come.

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I am also a guy who thinks that inflation in prices is the Thing Most Feared (TMF) in the whole world in terms of total sheer misery and suffering, judging by the entire last 4,500 years of history, except for, maybe, the plague.

Naturally, for one so dyspeptic and predisposed to paranoia because the people in charge are apparently overpaid, corrupt morons, I am visibly shaken at the news from Bloomberg that “The consumer-price index increased 0.2 percent for a fifth straight month, led by higher fuel costs, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington.” Yikes!

Inflation never stops! Even in a recession/depression like we have now! It’s terrifying!

Anyway, since insane levels of massive governmental deficit-spending of fiat money created by central banks is a world-wide phenomenon, there will be a massive inflation in consumer prices as a result of all of this unbelievably much new money being poured into the economy via governmental deficit-spending, and already the government is forced to report 2.6% inflation.

This is actually down from last month’s 2.7% inflation, and so immediately I get angry emails from people saying, “Dear Mogambo Stupid Head (MSH), You say that inflation is raging because of all the money that the Federal Reserve is creating, so how do you explain Bloomberg reporting ‘Excluding energy and food, the so-called core index unexpectedly fell 0.1 percent, reflecting a drop in new-car prices, clothing and shelter’? You can’t explain it because you are stupid and you are wrong and everybody hates you! Sincerely, Anonymous Reader.”

Well, as nice as it is to hear from my sister like that, it is doubly enjoyable this time because she is so wrong that I rate her as one who “has her own head up her own nasty butt” and I can hardly wait until Thanksgiving when everybody will be around the table and I can remind her of that ugly fact, getting back at her for what she said about me last year, by reminding her that she is so stupid (audience shouts out, “How stupid, Marvelous Manly Mogambo (MMM)?”) that she forgot to read farther into the article to learn that costs are being held down because “Even with higher production and material costs, US companies are reluctant to pass on the expenses to consumers”, which includes Wal-Mart, “the world’s largest retailer”, which “reported fourth-quarter sales that trailed its projection after cutting grocery and electronic prices” which, in a nutshell, explains why I am now screaming, “Inflation is here, you morons! It’s being temporarily absorbed by businesses and their stockholders making less money, and sometimes taking losses!”

That ought to shut her up pretty good, I figure, and if not, then I’ll scream at her until she confesses that she did not consider that the government now uses Hedonic Measurements of inflation, such as how that the turkey she is jamming into her pie-hole used to start getting stale and dried-out after a week or so in the refrigerator. But now, perhaps with the addition of small amounts of preservatives as part of a secret government experiment involving adding tiny little bits of nuclear waste during processing to produce enough radioactivity to kill all organisms that touch it, the leftover turkey will be just as tender and delicious a year from now as it is today!

Maybe even glowing, so you can make a sandwich in the dark!

This increased shelf life of the cooked turkey obviously increases the value of the turkey tremendously, and it also helps to deplete the nation’s nagging problem of its stockpile of dangerous, clumsy and expensive-to-store nuclear waste, producing a double benefit! Double!

Thus, the government calculates that the new, extra benefits of having turkey available for consumption for more days of the year (which is not a problem for my sister since she seems to be eager to eat lots of food, and she’ll probably finish the turkey carcass off pretty quick!), and simultaneously achieving a profound social good of disposing of dangerous radioactive waste, means that the turkey can never go up in price! Only the rising price of the new benefits makes it LOOK like it, because it costs more dollars per pound! Hahaha!

I am sure that she will come back with some of her stupid blah blah blah, but no matter what she says before I interrupt her, I am going to tell her that, even worse, the Labor Department report went on to say that “The CPI is the broadest of the three monthly price gauges from the Labor Department because it includes goods and services”, which was put in there to make you yawn and skip over the part that said that prices “showed 1.4 percent gains in both the cost of imported goods and wholesale prices in January”! Wowser!

As I said, inflation is the only thing that makes sense when considering such unbelievable, incomprehensibly massive increases in government borrowing-and-spending, overshadowed only by the enormous increases of money created by the Federal Reserve, and which makes sense since every doofus is town is yammering about how “inflation is impossible” and how “deflation is the bigger problem” since deflation means that the over-indebted middle class, the over-leveraged rich, the bloated financial services industry and the socialist government would lose, while inflation would affect mostly the poor, which are always the ultimate victim.

My suggestion to the poor? Buy gold, silver and oil immediately, because they will all rise right along with inflation, and probably more. Probably a lot more!

And if you don’t think that “the poor” today, after a half century of one bleeding-heart Congress after another finding ways to give them money and benefits, cannot come up with twenty bucks a month to buy an ounce of silver, then you don’t know squat about “the poor” in America today.

My suggestion to everyone else? Surprise! It’s the same! That makes it easy to remember, as in, “Whee! This investing stuff is easy!”

Inflation: The Economic Factor that Never Stops originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning.

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On Friday the government reported that the unemployment rate in the U.S. held at 9.7% in February and employers cut fewer jobs than anticipated. The stabilization in the labor market continued even as two East Coast blizzards of 2-3 feet each forced closings of some businesses during the period.

Furthermore, the jobless rate, which has not increased since October, held steady even as more people entered the workforce.

The steady unemployment rate owed to a 308,000 increase in household employment following a 541,000 January gain. These increases follow monthly declines of as much as 967,000 during the recession. Moreover, the labor force started to expand, last month by 342,000, after a lesser January increase. Throughout 2009 the labor force contracted slightly. The labor force participation rate also rose.

“The weather effects were enough to transform [the data],” said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. “Job growth is happening as we speak.”

Over at Fortune, they continue to expand their list of employers that have at least 150 openings. And the larger firms are now ramping up hiring significantly since the first of the year.

Among companies adding workers is Accenture Plc, the world’s second-largest technology-services provider, which plans to boost payrolls by about 50,000 this year. Accenture says it is on track to have started new employees in as many as 9,000 jobs in the U.S. by the end of August.

“We are seeing a very broad uplift globally” in demand, says John Campagnino, director of worldwide recruiting, in a interview on Wednesday.

Beyond full-time hires, the number of temporary workers increased by 48,000 in February, the fifth straight monthly gain.

Amidst the snow, factory payrolls increased 1,000 in February after rising 20,000 in the prior month. Most economists had called for a drop of 15,000.  Manufacturing employment continues as a leading segment in labor growth.

Friday’s report showed that almost 1 million Americans said bad weather prevented them from getting to work during the survey week. About 290,000 people on average say bad weather has prevented them from getting to work, according to figures going back three decades.

Economists at Macroeconomic Advisers LLC project that the weather actually reduced the payroll count by anywhere from 150,000 to 220,000 workers. The drop will probably be reversed this month, they said.

The most recent storm of similar intensity that occurred during a survey week was in January 1996. The data for payrolls that month, which have gone through several revisions since the initial estimate, showed a 19,000 drop in employment in the January period followed by a gain of 434,000 in February.

We continue to look for the US economy to add a significant number of jobs in spring and summer this year with the unemployment rate beginning a steady decline in the monthly readings just ahead.

Many argue that the return to job growth as been “slow.” On the contrary, this has been the most rapid turn from net jobs losses to net jobs gains of any business cycle in the last century. A jobless recovery? Not this time.

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Virginia’s Landmark Solar Power Project to be Hosted on University Campus

Eastern Mennonite University (EMU) in Harrisonburg will soon be the site of Virginia’s first commercial-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) installation in the Commonwealth.

The new installation is part of a proposed revision to the campus master plan to allow for approximately 600 kilowatts of solar energy panels to be installed on the campus. The installation is expected to generate about 12 percent of EMU’s total electricity use and save the university an estimated $2 million in avoided electricity costs over the 25-year project.

EMU was one of the three national leaders in efficient energy use out of 90 colleges and universities surveyed by the Association of Higher Education Facilities Officers in 2007. In addition to the new solar initiative, EMU sponsors numerous green programs on campus, including an institutional commitment to sustainability.

Under an innovative financing program that has been used extensively by universities in states like California and Colorado, EMU will effectively “host” the installation, paying only for the electricity generated by the panels installed on the campus through a 25-year power purchase agreement with Secure Futures, LLC, a private solar development company based in Staunton, Va.

“This will represent a signature project for EMU, as it embodies the stewardship values of our institution as well as building on our record as a leading green university,” said EMU President Loren Swartzendruber.

“The signature components of this project include using state-of-the-art solar technology, and, through Secure Futures’ unique financing model, supporting a three-tiered sustainability program including campus, curriculum and community sustainability,” said Ron Piper, vice president for finance at EMU.

Staunton-based Secure Futures, LLC, obtained a grant commitment of $225,000 from the Virginia Department of Mines, Minerals and Energy (DMME) for the project. Tony Smith, CEO of Secure Futures, said “this project will represent a milestone for renewable energy in Virginia insofar as scale and impact. We’re excited to see a first example of a solar project achieving electricity rates comparable to those offered on the electric grid, especially since Virginia has among the lowest electricity rates in the country.”

Ken Jurman, renewable energy manager for the Virginia Department of Mines, Minerals and Energy (DMME), noted that “The EMU solar project as described fits well within the scope and intent of Virginia energy policy to encourage renewable energy resources. I’m very pleased that this initiative is moving ahead – it’s exactly the kind of thing we want to encourage across the Commonwealth to move toward a sustainable energy future.”

Secure Futures designs, develops, finances and maintains turnkey distributed solar solutions in collaboration with tax-exempt entities to reduce their electricity costs and to create environmental and economic benefits for customers and their communities.

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The Institute for Supply Management released its February 2010 Manufacturing Report On Business Monday. The report shows that manufacturing jobs grew for the third month in a row. Even more upbeat was the fact that the report indicates that job growth in the sector is now accelerating.

Furthermore, overall economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the seventh consecutive month and index correlations with the larger U.S. economy indicate growth now for the 10th consecutive month.

ISM’s Employment Index registered 56.1% in February. That is 2.8% points higher than what was reported for January. This third consecutive month of growth in manufacturing employment represents the highest reading for the index since January 2005.

Source: Institute for Supply Manufacturing

Ten of the 18 manufacturing industries that are tracked by the ISM reported growth in employment in February. They are: Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

An early indicator of what jobs growth will look like in the near future is registered in the ISM’s Backlog of Orders Index. It registered 61 percent in February, accelerating 5% higher than in January. Of the respondents who report their backlog of orders to the ISM, a full third reported greater backlogs with only 1 in 10 reporting smaller backlogs. You may remember that as backlog orders grow, employers have in increased propensity to hire new workers.

Norbert J. Ore, chair of the ISM’s Business Survey Committee said, “The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January and February (57.5 percent) corresponds to a 5.2 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP).”

The report is further evidence of a U.S. economy that is on track for healthy net jobs creation by summer.

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So, it is not very significant, especially when I get argumentative by being literal and obtuse about it, like now, which is my mood lately.

But when you use the phrase “end of the world as we know it” in the metaphorical sense, meaning “some terrifying catastrophe, to the maximum, in spades”, then it means something much uglier and catastrophic, which you already knew since I use the word “catastrophic” earlier in the sentence, teeming, as it does, with evil portents of ravenous beasts eating you and your family alive, your agonizing screams mixing with squawking vultures pecking hungrily at your liver, and the dead rising from their graves to pursue us endlessly so that they can eat our brains.

Anyway, that’s the way I have it figured, having distilled an entire lifetime of watching TV down into these kinds of little philosophical nuggets.

And since I am by nature dyspeptic and paranoid about the inevitable, horrible result of a growing government, a growing class of people dependent on government, and a Federal Reserve constantly creating more and more money and credit to accommodate them both, I think that I understand the use of the “end of the world as we know it” in its most disturbing sense, because ruinous inflation in prices – the Grim Reaper of economics! – is thus inevitable.

What to do? Well, the sad truth, that you learn as part of attaining True Mogambo Enlightenment (TME), is that nothing can be done, as proved by the One Freaking Fact (OFF) that if debts could be made to just disappear – poof! – by printing money, then everyone, and every country, would do it! And would always have done it!

But nobody, and no country, has ever succeeded in printing money to pay their debts without causing hyperinflation in consumer prices, as the people rose up in revolt, the whole country disintegrated, it was a big mess and everything was ruined.

This – this! – means that you should look deep, deep into my eyes so that you can see the Utter Mogambo Sincerity (UMS) in my eyes when I say that this means to everybody with one functioning brain cell that it Can’t Be Done (CBD) simple by virtue of the fact that nobody in history has ever done it, although many, many, many people have tried everything they could think of to do it, including putting merchants to death for daring to raise their prices high enough to cover their inflating costs!

This is one of the tried-and-true ways that governments (“desperate morons in charge!”) seem to think will actually work, despite the obvious stupidity of it, and that is why I was shocked when I saw that Obama is endorsing legislation to prevent health insurance companies from raising prices! Unbelievable! Gaaaaahhhhh!

As indicated by the sound effect in the “Gaaaaaahhhhh!”, one can only manage a scream of Loud Mogambo Outrage (LMO) at the sheer, staggering, socialist stupidity of declaring prices, a sound not unlike the Freaking Sound Of Doom (FSOD) already ringing in your ears or you wouldn’t be reading this, which is a clarion call, if ever there was one, to hie thyself, to make ready, the Mogambo Bunker Of I-Told-You-So (MBOITYS), because, brother, one of these days very soon you are going to be glad you did.

And if you bought gold, silver and oil with a gasping, grasping, gluttony of greed, then, likewise, one of these days very soon you are going to be glad you did!

Persistent Debts Despite the Printing Press originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning.

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Inventory accumulation was estimated to have added 3.9% to economic growth last quarter. The accumulation of course was necessitated by dwindling stockpiles in several previous years. There was also an upward revision to growth in real imports to 15.3%.

Price inflation remains quite tame following little to no inflation during the prior two quarters. Diminished price gains for all of last year pulled the annual increase down to 1.2% which is its weakest increase since the early 1960s.

Almost 6% annualized growth and inflation at 1%? Does it get any better? Well, all signs point to Q1 growth accelerating.

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Improvement in the factory sector looked material last month. The overall level of durable goods orders jumped 3.0% and that followed an upwardly revised 1.9% December increase. Transportation spiked 15.6% in January after a 1.5% rise the month before. For the latest month, non-defense aircraft lifted-off to a monthly 126.0% increase; defense aircraft rose 11.6%;

The results far outpaced analyst expectations for only a 1.5% overall gain. The notable strength of course came from orders for non-defense aircraft & parts. Those gains that more than doubled, recouped any declines the prior two months.

Regardless of the aircraft sector, the durable factory goods sector appeared on the mend as well. Less the transportation sector, orders were enough to lift the y/y gain in orders to 8.6%. This strength suggests further improvement in shipments and that industrial output is accelerating after the modest y/y gains already logged in prior months.

Looking at core components, most of them posted gains. Leading those components: Computers & electronics were up 4.6% and communications equipment rose 3.1%. Also improving were primary metals, and electrical equipment.

Thursday’s report underscores a manufacturing sector that continues its path of accelerated Q1 growth.

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The Case-Shiller data on home prices was released on Tuesday. When seasonally adjusted, the data points to an extended price recovery, at plus 0.3 percent in December vs. 0.2 percent gains in the prior three months going back to September. These results point to a building on top of last years mid-year gains.

City-by-city, the data shows consistent improvement continuing to build in the West and the Midwest. The narrower 10 City Composite Index also accelerated to a gained 0.3% following three months of only a 0.2% increase.

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