By Christopher Briem, on January 29th, 2013
With December data recently out. More and more workers in Pittsburgh, and another new all-time high in the size of the regional labor force. Bigger observation is that the rate of labor force growth here is not slowing down either. In fact, for December it was the largest year over year increase in the region’s labor force in over 15 years:
But the proportion that are are working in the mills is within an insignificant digit of its all-time low. Now down to 7.5% as of December.
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By Christopher Briem, on January 21st, 2013
Just for the infographic in itself this is worth looking at from the NYT last week: A migration of unmarried men. Pennsylvania does not seem to show up in those migration stats at all. It makes me wonder about a lot of things. Was there some vast untapped labor resource in Pennsylvania for these jobs. If so then why has the need to replace retiring coal miners been a big issue in the state for so many years now? Hmmmm….
Which is not to mean there are not gender issues here no matter. From the latest data available I get this for the distribution of new hiring across the state for the industries most impacted by oil and gas development. You might think 10% is a Mendoza line of sorts.
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By Simon Grey, on January 18th, 2013
It’s apparently unpleasant:
American workers are opening their first paychecks of the year and finding an unpleasant surprise: The government’s take has gone up.
A temporary cut in Social Security withholdings gave Americans hundreds of extra dollars to spend over the past two years. But Congress allowed that break to expire during the wrangling over the fiscal cliff, meaning that Social Security taxes have reverted to 6.2% of salary from the temporary 4.2%.
The noticeable lightening of paychecks as consumers remain tentative threatens to put a drag on economic growth. The effect for companies is that the hit is likely to cement a frugal attitude that led consumers to cut back on eating out and shift to less-expensive store brands.
Now, I actually support a payroll tax increase. I think people who receive any form of government benefits should actually pay for them (yes, I know this is a crazy belief), and I think that the increase in tax rates is small enough and marginal enough that it will lead to increased revenues, thereby hypothetically reducing the deficit.
Of course, a higher tax burden means more economic malaise. But then, that’s simply the inevitable cost of the government living beyond its means. Bills must be paid, even by governments. If people don’t want higher taxes, they should vote for politicians who actually reduce spending. If people are unwilling to do vote for budget cuts, then they shouldn’t complain about higher taxes.
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By B.P.T., on January 18th, 2013
At 9:55 AM Eastern time, Consumer Sentiment for the first half of January will be announced. The consensus is that the index will be at 75.0, which would be an increase of 2.1 points from the level reported in the second half of last month.
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By Christopher Briem, on January 17th, 2013
So if there is any doubt what drives the stats behind this article today: Full home ownership here is nation’s best, it really is pretty simple. Of those who did not leave Pittsburgh, we have not had many folks move around. Likely for many depressed home values prevented the type of equity appreciation that fuels normal real estate markets. That along with the lower number of people who have moved into the region translates to fewer newer mortgages out there. I know that sounds a lot less folksy than we just love our neighborhoods, but it really is hard to dispute.
So what has been true a long time is that Pittsburgh, (city, region, or something in between) has long ranked near the top in the percentage of householders who have lived in their current home the longest period of time. It follows that more folks have paid off their current mortgage as a result. The question is why. Is Pittsburgh an anomaly?
So to check that out, I pulled the data on the median year householders moved into their current homes for each and every MSA in the nation. I am getting 366 total MSAs currently defined. Here is the very low end of that ranking. Johnstown PA has, by this metric, the longest tenured folks who have not moved. Pittsburgh last the longest tenured residents among large metro areas, thus the ranking in the article today. But notice the whole Cleveburgh thing going on? Maybe it is just a greater rust belt pattern. In this bottom 11 list is Altoona, Pittsburgh, Youngstown, Cumberland, Wheeling, Steubenville-Weirton and Johnstown. We have moved past the rust belt history in lots of ways, but there should be no doubt the impacts linger.
MEDIAN YEAR HOUSEHOLDER MOVED INTO UNIT
2007-2011 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates
| 356 |
Altoona, PA |
1999 |
| 357 |
Barnstable Town, MA |
1999 |
| 358 |
Bay City, MI |
1999 |
| 359 |
Danville, VA |
1999 |
| 360 |
Pittsburgh, PA |
1999 |
| 361 |
Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA |
1999 |
| 362 |
Cumberland, MD-WV |
1998 |
| 363 |
Scranton–Wilkes-Barre, PA |
1998 |
| 364 |
Wheeling, WV-OH |
1998 |
| 365 |
Steubenville-Weirton, OH-WV |
1997 |
| 366 |
Johnstown, PA |
1995 |
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By B.P.T., on January 17th, 2013
At 8:30 AM Eastern time, the U.S. government will release its weekly Jobless Claims report. The consensus is that there were 887,000 new jobless claims last week, which would would be 26,000 more than the previous week.
Also at 8:30 AM Eastern time, the Housing Starts report for December will be released. The consensus is that construction on 605,000 new homes were started last month, which would be a decrease of 53,000 from the previous month.
At 9:45 AM Eastern time, the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index will be released, providing an update on Americans’ views of the U.S. economy, their personal finances and the buying climate.
At 10:00 AM Eastern time, the Philadelphia Fed Survey report for January will be released. The consensus is that the index will be at 6, which would be a decrease of 2.1 points from the previous month.
At 10:30 AM Eastern time, the weekly Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Report will be released, giving an update on natural gas inventories in the United States.
At 4:30 PM Eastern time, the Federal Reserve will release its Money Supply report, showing the amount of liquidity available in the U.S. economy.
Also at 4:30 PM Eastern time, the Federal Reserve will release its Balance Sheet report, showing the amount of liquidity the Fed has injected into the economy by adding or removing reserves.
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By Simon Grey, on January 16th, 2013
Some economic news:
This morning’s jobs report shows that the economy’s subsidized private sector (industries like health care services that receive big government subsidies) is back as a major source of new hiring.
If a stronger but sustainable U.S. recovery depends on reinvigorating industries not heavily dependent on government largesse, then this hiring out-performance by the subsidized private sector is a bearish indicator.
As Tonelson figures it, the subsidized private sector created 65,000 net new jobs in December, nearly 40% of total private-sector job growth, about the same as throughout the recovery. But is that a lot or a little?
One easy way to tell if an economist is shallow is to see how they analyze the role of government in the economy. In this case, the assertion is that the government was responsible for about 40% of new net job creation. But, I wonder, how much net job destruction the government was responsible for.
By B.P.T., on January 16th, 2013
The Mortgage Bankers’ Association purchase index will be released at 7:00 AM Eastern time, providing an update on the quantity of new mortgages and refinancings closed in the last week.
At 8:30 AM Eastern time, the Consumer Price Index report for December will be released. The consensus is that CPI was unchanged last month, and there was a 0.1% increase in CPI when food and energy are removed.
At 9:00 AM Eastern time, the Treasury International Capital report for November will be released, showing the flow of capital in and out of the United States economy.
At 9:15 AM Eastern time, the Industrial Production report for December will be released. The consensus is that there will be an increase 0f 0.2% in production and an increase 0f 0.4% in industrial capacity utilization.
At 10:00 AM Eastern time, the Housing Market Index for January will be announced. This index is created from a survey of home builders, so it shows the confidence that the sector has in the overall economy and their business.
At 10:30 AM Eastern time, the weekly Energy Information Administration Petroleum Status Report will be released, giving investors an update on oil inventories in the United States.
At 2:00 PM Eastern time, the Beige Book report will be released, giving us more information about economic conditions in each Federal Reserve district in advance of the next Fed meeting.
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By Simon Grey, on January 15th, 2013
Quelle surprise:
The tax this year will increase by two percentage points, to 6.2 percent from 4.2 percent, on all earned income up to $113,700.
Indeed, for most lower- and middle-income households, the payroll tax increase will most likely equal or exceed the value of the income tax savings. A household earning $50,000 in 2013, roughly the national median, will avoid paying about $1,000 more in income taxes — but pay about $1,000 more in payroll taxes.
That tax rates are nominally increasing, or that effective tax rates are not decreasing, should come as no surprise. Government spending must be funded somehow, and the only three possible options for raising revenue are taxation, inflation, and borrowing. The federal government must have money in order to do what it does, and that money must come from somewhere. To think that the federal government can spend close to $4 trillion without imposing any costs on anyone except “the rich”—itself a nebulous, ill-defied concept—is simply ludicrous. And to those who complain about the tax burden they must inevitably bear, I simply ask: what government services do you no longer want provided for you? If you want the government to do something for you, you must—you will—pay for it. Thus, any complaints about taxes, if they are serious, must be accompanied with complaints about spending.
By B.P.T., on January 15th, 2013
At 7:45 AM Eastern time, the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales report will be released, giving an update on the health of the consumer through this analysis of retail sales.
At 8:30 AM Eastern Time, the Empire State manufacturing index for January will be released. The consensus is that the index value will be 0, which would be 8.1 points higher than the value reported in the previous month.
Also at 8:30 AM Eastern time, the Retail Sales report for December will be released. The consensus is that retail sales were 0.2% higher last month, after an increase 0.3% in the previous month.
Also at 8:30 AM Eastern time, the Producer Price Index for December will be released. The consensus is that the index decreased 0.1% last month, and increased 0.2% when food and energy are excluded.
At 8:55 AM Eastern time, the weekly Redbook report will be released, giving us more information about consumer spending.
At 10:00 AM Eastern time, the Business Inventories report for November will be released. The consensus is that inventories increased 0.3% from the previous month.
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