RBI vision document on payments: An evaluation

by Madhavi Pundit and Suyash Rai

On June 27, RBI published its Payment System Vision Document (2012-15). The document shows RBI’s vision and mission for the payment system, and specifies the objectives, approaches and courses of action emanating from the same. It is a laudable step taken by RBI to discuss its plans for payments in India. All regulatory activities, such as banking and capital account liberalisation should have vision documents to similarly show the road map. They bring clarity to market participants, and helps everyone plan better.

A vision document is an opportunity to think from first principles, and to dream about the payments landscape. The document does not do this sufficiently.

Going by the ideas of the vision document, it is difficult to hold RBI accountable to it or to evaluate its role as a regulator, because it is not clear what we should expect the payment system to achieve, say, five years from now. Though the vision itself may be a general, aspirational statement, it should be accompanied by quantifiable goals that can be achieved by Indian payments system (regulator + industry). For example, the regulator can set objectives that by 2015, cash will be x% of transactions, or that cheques will be phased out by 2020. RBI can then, as a regulator, take steps to facilitate the achievement of such goals, with the expectation that other participants will play their part. Such sharp statements are absent in the document.

Once a suitably ambitious, but quantifiable, vision for payments has been stated, achieving it requires looking beyond incremental modifications. This brings us to the kind of steps RBI has proposed in the document; the things that it will do to achieve the vision over the next three years. For a vision document, the proposed steps are rather tactical and operational. From this document, it seems RBI is running all payment systems, with incidental cooperation from the private sector. It is difficult to imagine how industry participants should work towards the vision. For an example of how this can be done, contrast the RBI document with the Strategic Review of Innovation in the Payments System, recently released by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Unlike RBI’s document, the focus of this document is purely strategic, and on removing barriers that prevent market participants from innovating.

The document should clearly state what RBI sees as its role in payment systems – which is above all, that of a regulator – and what it sees as the role of market participants. While the document focuses on the development of certain types of electronic payment systems, certain standards, authorisation methods etc., there are a host of other ways the market could innovate. The document’s approach precludes other means by which the same goal of higher electronic payments can be achieved.

All regulation must be rooted in market failures that damage the interests of consumers or threaten systemic crises. A specific regulation must address a specific market failure and thus tangibly further consumer protection or systemic stability:

  1. In payment systems, consumer protection would entail measures that ensure transparency and disclosure by payment providers, so that consumers receive what they are promised.
  2. In addition, providers must be subjected to micro-prudential regulations, such as capital requirements, risk management and investment restrictions that ensure their safety and soundness, based on the risks they take. The risk based approach means that small value systems with real-time payments need less regulation than large value systems that hold clients’ funds for a certain amount of time.
  3. For systemic stability, enhanced regulation and supervision of systemically important payment systems, especially back-end infrastructure, such as RTGS, is required.

RBI ought to focus on these regulatory objectives, where it would deliver public goods, rather than take on `private goods’ functions that can be handled ably by the market. Systems such as NEFT and ECS, which essentially require capabilities that go beyond a regulator’s core competence, can be run well by the private sector, under RBI’s regulations. In such systems, competition is of essence.

From this perspective, the vision document starts looking less impressive. It is tied to the existing ways of doing things, and intent on incrementally improving them, rather than questioning the existing paradigm. This is unsatisfactory, for a paradigm shift is what India most requires.

Perhaps that is why there seems to be a lack of clarity of purpose. For example, RBI talks about investing in cheque systems and electronic systems at the same time. Developing a grid system to replace clearing houses as suggested is expensive. If the objective is to phase out cheques and promote electronic payments, the revamp of the cheque clearing system has no place in the vision document for electronic payments.

The emphasis on electronic payments is welcome. It is time for India to become a less-cash society, and ultimately a cash-less society. Myriad inexpensive, safe and useful electronic technologies are available, and more are being developed as we write. Hence the extensive use of cash and other paper-based instruments is not acceptable. They are expensive and inconvenient, and cost the most to those with the least – who pay for using these instruments and also face value erosion due to inflation. More needs to be done to move to electronic payments, and soon.

Competition and innovation are both important for this goal. The document talks about the dilemma the regulator faces with regard to pricing. To us, there is no such dilemma. To a large extent, the regulator should not intervene in business decisions such as pricing. In terms of market structure, there are two types of charges in payments – by retail payment providers and by infrastructure providers in the system. At the front end, innovative and cost effective payments products and gateways can develop if there is competition and there is no case for regulatory intervention here. It is a serious issue, and as experience from credit markets would suggest, a cap on pricing usually leads to more exclusion than inclusion.

Anti-competitive actions by players can be taken up to the Competition Commission. At the same time, it is important to note that in industries that are network based, there may be a need for monopolies or duopolies in infrastructure provision which require modification of the standard approaches of competition law (example).

Under these circumstances, if there is evidence of supernormal profits, there may be role for regulating prices. But even here, price determination should be done transparently, based on a full analysis of costs and reasonable returns, and in consultation with industry participants. For example, in the recent announcement of a cap on merchant discount rate on debit cards, there is no explanation from the regulator for how the amount 0.75 per cent was decided, and what are its costs and benefits to the system.

The role for non-banks is conspicuous by its absence in the vision statement. Currently, regulations tie the hands of non-bank payment providers. Take the example of Airtel money, which is a semi-closed mobile wallet. This means money can be transferred to other Airtel customers and transactions can take place with certain merchants, but there is no possibility for cashing out. Vodafone has partnered with a bank, and hence allows cash out from retail points; but these registered points have to be within 30 km of the bank partner.

A key insight that should guide the way forward is that payments is a separate business from banking, and should have its own regulation. Decoupling them could help achieve the twin goals of innovation and inclusion. An electronic payments revolution can take place when small value transactions are done electronically, i.e., customers in every nook and corner of the country can access secure, efficient and low cost retail payments services that can be considered cash substitutes. E-money in many countries has exploded on the backs of non-bank led payments systems such as telecom companies and retail chains, and their reach has been impressive. Easing restrictions on non-bank payments systems in India is required to really take advantage of their vast networks that have already penetrated unbanked areas. There are risks, but nothing that a forward thinking regulator who recognises the immense potential cannot creatively address. (See How to achieve safety in payments for an example.)

Finally, for large value electronic payments systems, RBI’s vision should be to bring them up to world standards and integrated with global systems. Cross-border payments are an important facet of international trade and integration, and this can lead to settlement/ Herstatt risks. RBI should address operational and regulatory issues to minimise these risks. For example, RTGS should be brought as close as possible to a 24 by 7 settlement system to ensure overlaps with corresponding systems in other countries and time zones. Additionally, in light of recent data that shows that the INR is the third most traded emerging market currency, these and other steps should be taken so that the INR becomes an eligible currency for settlement in the Continuous Linked Settlement (CLS) system, alongside the other international currencies already on CLS.

In conclusion, it is commendable that RBI has released a payments vision document. Such a document gives an opportunity for us to understand the mind of a government agency, and discuss and debate its priorities and actions. But writing a vision statement is a chance to step away from the familiarity of set ways and ask the big questions. RBI should not squander this opportunity.

Miners Are Unlocking China’s Gold: Noel White

Noel White China may be investing billions elsewhere to locate new mineral deposits, but Geologist Noel White believes there are huge discoveries yet to be unearthed within its borders. White, an independent geological consultant with Enargite in Brisbane, Australia, says China’s history and politics have slowed development of its mining at home. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, White reveals which companies have boots on the ground and the expertise to make the next big strike in China and South America.

The Gold Report: Noel, you’re a geologist with about a 40-year history in mineral exploration. These days, public companies pay you for advice on how to run their exploration programs. What are some common mistakes junior mining companies make when it comes to exploration?

Noel White: Junior companies have difficulty developing a clear and realistic strategy.

TGR: You try to temper their enthusiasm?

NW: Not at all. In fact, I try to encourage their enthusiasm. But I try to get what they do aligned with what their objectives are in a realistic way.

TGR: Do they try to drill too quickly? Do they try to drill too much?

NW: Junior companies commonly feel that there is an expectation to drill quickly, but they also need to do their homework properly. If they jump into drilling before doing the appropriate surface techniques, such as geological mapping, geochemical sampling and geophysical surveys, they can completely waste the very expensive drilling work. It is a serious mistake because bad drilling results have a serious negative impact on how investors perceive a project. A company needs the best possible intersections at the start to raise the value of their projects.

TGR: Have you been an active consultant on projects that have reached production and gone on to be successful?

NW: I’ve worked a long time with Asia Now Resources Corp. (NOW:TSX.V) in China. Asia Now has produced an ore deposit in southern China. That exploration success followed a long period of very careful exploration to find a completely hidden ore body. Without that early work, that success would not have been achieved.

TGR: You often deal with technologies that are new to mineral exploration. Can you talk about how they’re changing the game?

NW: The fundamentals of mining haven’t changed particularly in 40 years—we just use new technologies to achieve the same goals. The major breakthrough in geophysical technology of recent times was the development of airborne gravity. That was one of the Holy Grails.

One of the most basic tools is a magnetic survey. We can get a lot more out of magnetic surveys today than we could in the past. Those surveys provide us with baseline information that’s really important.

Technology is producing major breakthroughs in geochemistry. Geochemistry started off just collecting samples of soil or stream sediments and using simple analytical techniques. More and more sensitive analytical methods have been developed. Partial leach techniques extract part of the geochemical sample to maximize the sensitivity. A major recent development relies on the fact that nature has focused particular elements that are associated with ore deposits into particular minerals. It is now possible to actually look at the chemistry of particular minerals to evaluate the proximity to the target based on its chemistry.

TGR: What do all those technologies mean to the investor?

NW: Smart people follow the lead of smart people and greedy people follow the lead of greedy people. If you follow a greedy person you might get lucky and make a lot of money in the short term. Technically smart people who design exploration programs have a much higher probability of being successful in delivering a discovery.

TGR: A few years ago, the World Bank evaluated the mineral potential of China. How would you characterize China’s mineral potential?

NW: To appreciate China’s potential, you have to understand its history. In the early days of the People’s Republic of China, the country followed the Soviet Union approach and started huge state-funded surveys over massive areas, but the Cultural Revolution disrupted the process. Thousands of state-owned companies with exploration teams suddenly found themselves with no funding. However, the government wouldn’t allow them to reduce staff or stop operations—a major dilemma for management. They started mining any little thing to make money.

TGR: The country is literally dotted with all kinds of artisanal mines.

NW: They were so focused on making money that they were acting as if they were the smallest of junior mining companies where making money was the sole focus, not doing good work.

TGR: But the potential is there.

NW: Oh, the potential is staggering. A mineral occurrence map of East Asia shows multiple world-class deposits around the borders of China. However, there are very few inside China. Why did China miss out? It has nothing to do with geology. I has to do with the history of the country and how exploration developed. China is fantastically endowed, but very poorly explored.

TGR: But even the Chinese government is not compelled by its geology. Chinese state-owned companies are spending billions to develop resources beyond its borders. Isn’t it difficult to argue for further mineral exploration and development in China when the Chinese themselves seem unconvinced?

NW: A huge amount of money is being channeled by the government into exploration teams in China. Some of them are quite competent, but many of them are not. It’s basically pouring good money out after mostly bad.

Then the government asks, “Well, why haven’t we found all these deposits in China?” But the “experts” they are asking don’t know anything about the economic geology of China. They say, “We’ve spent a huge amount of money looking for these deposits and haven’t found them. Therefore, they mustn’t be there.” That conclusion is wrong. Most of the money is being used in completely ineffective ways.

TGR: What is the environment for juniors wanting to capitalize on that potential?

NW: The geological potential of China is fantastic. But let’s not pretend otherwise—it’s a difficult place to work for other reasons. When Asia Now went in 10 years ago, China was encouraging foreign companies to come in. A lot of juniors went into China. Some did quite well. Many of them did really badly. Subsequently, conditions have become less and less favorable. The policies change almost on a yearly basis. It’s more challenging today than it was 10 years ago.

TGR: What’s the best way to get started in China?

NW: The best way to work in China is to joint venture with a good state-owned company. Asia Now chose very good projects and joint ventured with two partners. It’s very much like a joint venture in a Western company. Mining law in China is provincial. Having a Chinese partner that can handle government and community relations for you is a major advantage. Many foreign companies don’t understand the system, the requirements—they don’t have the connections and the relationships that can make things easier. Life is much easier when you have a good local partner.

TGR: Oyu Tolgoi is the mammoth copper-gold porphyry deposit being developed in Mongolia by Rio Tinto (RIO:NYSE; RIO:ASX). You’re an expert in porphyry deposits. Do you believe further exploration of those geological systems could yield a similar deposit in China?

NW: There are a lot of porphyry prospects in China, but there’s been very little effective exploration on them. The situation is changing because more Chinese have familiarity with porphyry deposits. However, in most cases, if they even recognize a porphyry, they will drill a couple of holes and walk away because they didn’t get what they wanted. Porphyry deposits are very big, but that doesn’t mean they’re easy to find. They can’t just drill a couple of holes and say, “Oh well, we’ve done it.” In fact, Asia Now is exploring a porphyry system that had never been recognized in southeastern China, down toward the Vietnam border.

TGR: Is that Habo?

NW: Yes. Asia Now has drilled about 20 holes, but certainly hasn’t finished exploring. The potential remains in that area. But why wasn’t it found before? There were about 10 centimeters of forest soil and dead leaves hiding it. Until the surface was scraped away, it couldn’t be seen. It’s not that geologists hadn’t looked in that area, they just hadn’t seen it. That’s true all around the world. It takes very little to hide something.

China has great potential for more porphyry systems. In fact, there have been a lot of porphyry systems found in Tibet because it’s a well-exposed area and a well-defined belt. There is a need for people to get back into eastern China where there are numerous known porphyry systems that have never been explored properly.

TGR: Do you think that Habo will ever get to the point where it is a major porphyry system that is mined and is economic?

NW: It’s at an important stage now. The work that is being done right now will make or break Habo. So far, no sufficiently wide zones of high-grade mineralization have been found. Many narrow zones have been found, but that doesn’t make a porphyry deposit because large volumes are needed to bulk mine.

It’s still an open question. We still don’t know the answer. We’re drilling targets that have the potential to be an economic ore body. Time will tell.

TGR: Is the work being done on Habo changing the way Chinese geologists think about geology in China?

NW: The Chinese system is very stratified. The people in the field often don’t know what’s happening just down the road, let alone in another province. That knowledge would not be widespread.

TGR: You’ve also acted as a consultant on the Beiya project, which is in northern Yunnan Province. What’s exciting about that project?

NW: We discovered an ore body at Beiya. It’s taken quite a period to achieve that success largely because of the character of the geology. The potential was very clear from the earlier stages. There was a known deposit, which has grown and grown to be the biggest gold mine in Yunnan. Production at the moment is about 200,000 ounces per year from an open pit, but it was a very small underground mine when we started.

The mine was controlled by a state-owned company, now partly privatized, but at the start Asia Now tied up all the surrounding ground because it recognized the potential there. The state-owned company was so focused on drilling and testing that deposit that it wasn’t interested in the surrounding ground. A fantastic ground position was secured by Asia Now through joint ventures that ultimately give it more than 70% equity.

TGR: That doesn’t happen very often in the West, that’s for sure.

NW: It was a fantastic opportunity. It was very insightful to grab it. I’m sure the owners of the Beiya gold mine wish that it had never happened. Now, of course, they’re looking and saying, “Where can we expand to?” They’re basically locked in.

TGR: You wrote an interesting research paper on Minera IRL Ltd. (IRL:TSX; MIRL:LSE; MIRL:BVL) called “Minera IRL: Projects, Personnel and Potential.” Is it common for you to pen pieces like that? I worked at the Northern Miner for 10 years and I’ve never seen something like that.

NW: It was an internal report. The background to that was Minera was having a staff conference at one of its exploration sites. I was asked to speak at that staff conference and give an overview. I sat in on all its project reviews and was on the ground on several of the projects. It is apparent from that document that I was very impressed.

TGR: Indeed, you were. You talk about the mineral potential of Ollachea in Peru and Don Nicolas in Argentina as being significantly greater than what’s being looked at currently. What supports that view?

NW: Ollachea has mineralization exposed in a belt of small workings. The deposit has a fairly shallow dip of about 30 degrees in very dissected country. Very often those sorts of deposits are steeply dipping, which limits the depth at which you can explore them. Here, the host structure extends a long way away from where it’s currently being drilled. Minera knows that there is gold at other points along that structure and that that structure is very persistent.

The amount of blue sky attached to that deposit is startling. There’s plenty more potential. It’s the tip of the iceberg. Nobody knows how much more there is, but definitely one of the things you want with any project, apart from having a good resource, is the potential to grow. There’s extraordinarily good potential to grow there.

TGR: Is there significant potential in the Don Nicolas deposit as well?

NW: I didn’t review Don Nicolas itself. I was supposed to look a lot more closely at that on my last visit, but a little heart attack got in the way.

TGR: Oh, my goodness!

NW: That cut the visit short. However, Don Nicolas is one of many exploration targets within that region. I was startled, to be honest. It’s quite an amazing region. There’s a whole series of other deposits that are known. Minera has tied up a very large land holding in an extraordinarily mineralized region. For a geologist in exploration, it’s the sort of thing that makes your heart beat faster.

TGR: You spoke earlier about how mining rules vary among Chinese provinces. It’s much the same in the different provinces of Argentina. Are the particular provinces where Minera is operating considered mining-friendly jurisdictions?

NW: Yes, very much so. It’s the best in Argentina. To be honest, there’s not a lot more going for this province apart from mining. It’s mostly flat. It’s arid. It’s quite a difficult environment for any other sources of income. The people there recognize that the best opportunity they have to develop is through the mining industry. Consequently, they’re very positive about it. They want to see the mining industry grow.

TGR: There is an economic malaise in this particular sector, but projects are still being found and developed despite lagging share prices. Some of them even look robust. Is that enough to keep investors hopeful about this sector?

NW: Investors are holding onto their money and not investing in anything that’s perceived to have risk. But there still are investors who have a taste for something with big upside potential. Now is the time to be investing in the very good exploration companies—the ones that have very good projects and very good management. Investors get in cheaply and the upside is fantastic. There’s every reason to be optimistic about the mining industry and exploration. Exploration is the future of mining and mining is essential to civilization.

TGR: Do you have any other thoughts you want to share with us?

NW: There will be discoveries that generate interest. In exploration, we benefit greatly from the power of greed because the discovery that excites the market generates a lot more exploration activity. I remember during my BHP Minerals days the young geologists would say, “Isn’t it a pity that we didn’t find that deposit?” I’d say, “Don’t knock it because we benefit from the fact someone else found a deposit that’s got the market excited.” It benefits everyone’s budget.

TGR: Indeed.

Dr. Noel White is a geologist with more than 40 years of experience in mineral exploration, operations and project generation worldwide. He was the chief geologist for former BHP Minerals and has visited over 350 ore deposits/mines in 50 countries, including China, where the first foreign joint venture in its mining industry was built up by BHP. White was a consultant to the World Bank Group on its evaluation of Asian mineral potential. He has a strong involvement with professional societies and universities worldwide, such as serving as international exchange lecturer in 1999 and Thayer Lindsley Lecturer in 2008 for the Society of Economic Geologists and served as the vice president of regional affairs for the Society of Economic Geologists. He has authored and co-authored various publications since 1972. White received a Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Newcastle and a Ph.D. from the University of Tasmania.

Not all pensions are created equal

So here is one of those factoids that may confuse those who read too much news.

So what do we know about the City of Pittsburgh’s pension system? Officially it was funded at around 56%, but that really is an old number. It also is a number that is more than double what it would be if you took out the notional ‘asset’ that I still find hard to talk about seriously.   No matter.  Pretend it really is 60% for sake of argument.  Only in Pittsburgh logic is that a ’success’ when the rest of the world would call it abysmal.  We also know that the Pennsylvania school pension system (PSERS) is better funded ataround 75%, all real assets by the way. Some consider that low, but still a lot better than a lot of municipalities. Could be better.    Now all propblems at the Port Authority are being laid at the feet of escalating pension costs.  Sure must be that the Port Authority’s pension system is in far worse shape than the city of PSERS right?  Just must be.   And like all common wisdom, it is far more common than wise.  Here is the time series (page 25) up to the latest public info on the funding ratio for the Port Authority drivers pension system.  Is this what you expected given what is in the headlines?

Seriously.. what number would you have guessed? It turns out a lot of pension math is misconstrued in public.

Note the latest data there is for January 1, 2010 which is still on the heels of some bad stock market losses for most funds.  2010 and then 2011 were both real good years for public pension systems in the US, so maybe they are even higher than the 87%.  Think about that.  The current funding ratio might be a slightly relevant number for the current public debate? The absolute numbers of relevance are that the calculated liability is $781 million and the assets available are $681 million.   Compare to the City of Pittsburgh which is now over a $billion in calculated liability and an ever diminishing amount of liquid assets to cover it.  I have never seen any reporting on how well funded the drivers pension plan is.  In fact, I have seen no reporting of the hard data on the pension plans $$ assets at all.     In fact..  I wonder a bit.   That January 1, 2010 calculation for the liability value is a dynamic number as actuarial valuations too often are.   The assumptions include some very steady wage increases for the Port Authority drivers.. all of them.  What do we know?   A lot of drivers are about to be laid off as routes are cut.  Lots of that liability is about to be lopped off, maybe a lot of that liability has already been taken off the books given layoffs since that January 1, 2010 reference data now 2.5 years ago.  I bet wage increases will come in a bit lower than the actuary assumes which would also lop off a big part of the liability calculation.  A small change in that assumption will bring down the calculated liability a lot actually. Could it be that if there was a current actuarial valuation that the current asset values would make it fully funded?  If not, it certainly may be the best funded large public pension system in Pennsylvania.  You would never get that from the headlines though.  Now..  the retort is that the the issue is health care costs, and in particular pension health care costs.  True.  But note that once you start talking about health care costs you are talking about something different from the pension discussion normally in the public debate for say the City of Pittsburgh.   Lots of public institutions have a big health care liability that is completely unfunded and is basically a big train wreck going to happen. It is a nearly ubiquitous problem in both public and private sector.  It just becomes an apples and oranges discussion when you talk about the pension problem at the Port Authority if there is any comparison to the pension debate for the city which mostly ignores the problem.  In fact there is a really convoluted aspect to this.   The Port Authority has some big pension cost problems when it comes to health care expenses now and in the future.  The big reason is that the health care liability has no $$ put toward it.  That is a very different problem than what I think most people assume that the pension fund itself is underfunded.  Like most public institutions you can’t say it was a big secret this health care bill was coming due.

Also was no secret that most public institutions were not putting money away for the expenses they knew were coming due.  In fact I think the rule that nominally is forcing public institutions to address this big looming problem, something called GASB 45, was mentioned right here years ago..  2006 actually if you poke at that link so yes I know what the issues are.  That the Port Authority is ramping up payments to fund some of the that health care liability is actually commendable for the record.  But if you are are lead to believe that the Port Authority is in worse shape than the city which also clearly has several hundred $million in unfunded health care liability but is just choosing to continue without such contributions is a meaningless comparison.   Also a little issue with Allegheny County as well which has seen its pension funding ratio falling behind over the last 5-10 years.  Few mention that much, or talk of shutting down a third of the county.  Maybe we can lop off everything north of the Allegheny River?

Economic Events on July 9, 2012

At 3:00 PM Eastern time, the Consumer Credit report for May will be released.  The consensus estimate is that there will be an increase of $8.5 billion in the consumer credit available, after an increase of $6.5 billion in the previous month.