The Ethics of Receiving Government Benefits

Many liberals like to point out the apparent hypocrisy of the people featured in the article, who rail against big government, demand lower spending, and simultaneously rake in benefits from the federal government that they hate. The central figure in the article, Ki Gulbranson, works hard yet has barely enough money to support his family, even with the earned income tax credit* and reduced-price school lunches for his kids. His conclusion: the country is going bankrupt, but people don’t make enough money to pay more taxes, so we should have smaller government. He would rather go without his current benefits—but he can’t imagine retiring without Medicare and Social Security. [Ed.—the rest of the article is worth reading as well.]

I have no opposition to people pursuing or receiving government benefits if they’ve paid into the system, even if they oppose the offering of those benefits. There are two reasons for this.

First, if you’ve paid taxes, you should be able to recoup them because the government is supposed to act in your interests. Some benefits will be indirect (military spending, e.g.), some are indirect (highway construction, e.g.), and some are direct (welfare, e.g.). The problem with government is that all benefits are part of the same basket; you can’t opt out of paying for any of the benefits. As such, there is little reason to opt out of receiving any benefits because you’ve already paid for them and, as is the case in a democracy, they belong to you (what with it being a government of the people, by the people, for the people and all).

Second, the government does things that incentivize the receipt of direct benefits. Taxation is one example, in that taxation prevents you from taking care of things for yourself. More people would be able to afford their own health care if the government cut health spending and the corresponding taxes. Another example is regulation (which is in many cases not enacted democratically), which also makes many things more expensive. More people could more easily afford the things they need if regulatory compliance costs were reduced.

Now, political principles are indeed wonderful things, as they give us some idea of where we want to go. But we should never mistake political principles for political reality. It would be great if there weren’t any unconstitutional government programs and their corresponding taxes. But that is currently not the case, and our ethical considerations need to account for the various distortions that come at the hands of the government. If the government is going to force you to make bricks, there’s no principled reason to refuse their straw.

* Caveat 1: while I argue that people shouldn’t be considered hypocrites for receiving government benefits that they argue against, they should also be aware that there are costs to qualifying for government benefits, and that they should be prepared to comply with them.

Caveat 2: this ethical analysis only applies to people who have paid taxes. Those who haven’t paid a dime in taxes should not receive a dime in benefits.

Gold's Wild Ride Leaves Explorers Ready to Grow: Tom MacNeill

Tom MacNeill Lesser resource companies have been slowly starving to death since the capital faucet was turned off in 2008. What’s left? Some exciting, early-stage companies with management teams industrious enough to make it through with promising projects on the horizon. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Tom MacNeill, CEO of 49 North Resources Inc., a Saskatchewan-focused resource investment company, discusses some names his firm is excited about, including some primed to debut on the public markets soon.

The Gold Report: What sort of year are you expecting for gold?

Tom MacNeill: The recent pullback is perfectly healthy. The entire world is trying to competitively devalue currencies because it’s the only way to get out from under the debt burden created by liquidity added to the capital markets over the last three years.

We don’t expect that the gold price is going to come down anytime soon. Either the international community has to keep adding liquidity, which is good for the price of gold, or it achieves economic development, which will create severe inflation, also good for the price of gold.

The game isn’t done yet. It will still take a few more years to see where macroeconomic policy takes us. I believe that we will have an upward-slanting chart through 2012 with some hiccups. When it gets ahead of itself, like all parabolic charts do every now and then, it will be painful for some in the short term.

From a gold developer’s perspective, what more could you ask for than $1,700/ounce (oz) gold and the ability to contain cash costs because there is economic pressure downward in the cycle? It’s good news for gold developers.

TGR: So it’s the best of both worlds?

TMN: Yes, at least for the next couple of years until the world sorts itself out macroeconomically. There’s going to be a point in the future to exit most gold positions, but not likely in the coming year.

TGR: What other metals do you believe are poised to perform in 2012?

TMN: Historically, there have been times where gold leads the base metals. If consumption demand picks up, the price of gold will fall off. However, as an industrial metal, copper’s price likely won’t fall off because it will be in even higher demand. China already consumes half the world’s copper. We are still in the early days of the copper cycle.

When most investors were running away from base metals a couple of years ago is when we were getting our feet wet developing cheap projects. Our No. 1 and No. 3 projects right now are gold and copper projects.

TGR: Have you noticed increasing competition for early-stage dollars?

TMN: We’re contrarians. We get involved in projects when commodity prices drop, investors are running away and companies can’t raise capital. By the time most players want to throw capital at copper companies, we’ve likely already made our seed investments and are moving assets forward at that stage. We don’t find competition because we run counter to the herd. There should be a lot of activity in early-stage copper exploration over the next 12 months, but we won’t have much interest in competing for those investments because we are already developing assets that we acquired one to three years ago.

TGR: What are some names that are off to a good start this year?

TMN: We’re most excited about DNI Metals Inc. (DNI:TSX.V; DG7:FSE). It was up 45% in January alone and was just added to the TSX Venture 500. We have very high expectations. We own about 15% of the company and will continue to fund it as it moves forward.

Tembo Gold Corp. (TEM:TSX.V) is about to be listed on the Toronto Venture Exchange within a couple of weeks. The company has three drill rigs ready to explore its property in Tanzania.

Westcore Energy Ltd.’s (WTR:TSX.V) stock hasn’t performed yet, but it has $3 million (M) in the till and it is just starting a thermal coal drill program near the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border for heavy crude conversion.

Batero Gold Corp. (BAT:TSX.V)—love that one. It’s right on the verge of developing its first NI 43-101 resource calculation of a Colombian multiple porphyry project that we’re very excited about. We’re passive investors in Batero but we’ve loved it since day one. It’s a very interesting story.

TGR: DNI just released a resource study on its Buckton mineralized zone in Alberta, a black shale play that has rare earths and other metals.

TMN: The project keeps getting bigger and better. DNI recently released an Inferred resource of 250 million tons (Mt) with a suite of metals including nickel, molybdenum, lead, zinc, vanadium and uranium. It’s a large-scale, low-grade base metals deposit. The in situ value of this suite of metals appears to be between $20 and $25/ton (t). That gets my attention immediately. It also appears that the value of rare earth elements is about $50/t of rock combined. The real value in the collective recovery of all these metals together is enormous.

We expect DNI has in excess of 2 billion tons of material—there are 250 Mt with just the preliminary resource estimate based on a very small component of the zone. That’s potentially a $150 billion (B) in situ resource.

Buckton is an analog to the Talvivaara mine in Finland, which went into production in 2010. It’s a low-grade nickel deposit with a suite of other minerals that add up to a rock value of between $60 and $80/t with about 1.5 Bt of resource worth about $116B. Similar to the Finnish project, DNI’s bioleaching uses organisms within the shales for recovery, which means it’s a very “green” project.

TGR: Have there been any metallurgical tests done on Buckton?

TMN: There have been a series of them done in Canadian and French laboratories for confirmation with recoveries that run from 50–100% in the suite of minerals and REEs. The next phase is to develop a small pilot plant to prove minerals can be economically liberated out of the shales and overburdens. Given similar projects in the oil sands for metals recovery from tailings, we expect it will cost somewhere between $20M and $40M to prove economic viability.

TGR: What’s the timeline for a preliminary economic assessment (PEA)?

TMN: The PEA could be completed by the end of this year. However, the company is going to need to build the small pilot facility, which likely could be completed sometime in 2013.

TGR: One of your top 10 holdings is Batero, which should be releasing a resource estimate on the Quinchía project in Colombia soon. What are you expecting from that?

TMN: Very good things. We’re passive investors, but we will likely be adding to our position based on the results of the NI 43-101. Quinchía is potentially a world-class project. It’s in the same structural trend of other 10+ million ounce (Moz) gold deposits.

Batero is drilling three related projects, with most of its activity on the La Cumbre porphyry. They consistently hit near surface mineralization that so far extends over intersections as long as 750 meters. It is open in all directions. It’s a perfect world for a very good deposit: consistent, low grades running between 0.5 and 1 gram per ton (g/t), which is imminently mineable in this current pricing environment; huge size; an oxide zone at the top of the La Cumbre, which could potentially be higher grade; and an area that shows a hydrothermal system that could be very high grade.

All of that is on only half of the property. The other half of the property hasn’t even had a lot of basic geophysical and geochemical work done for exploration.

My expectation is Batero should come close to or exceed 5 Moz of gold with a grade somewhere between 0.50 and 0.75 g/t in the current NI 43-101.

One of the most successful mines in the world is the Marigold mine operated by Goldcorp Inc. (G:TSX; GG:NYSE) and Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX; ABX:NYSE) in Nevada. It has 1.5 Moz with a 0.61 g/t grade. The project made $30M in net profit in 2010 on about $100M in gold sales. And that’s a fifth of the size of the potential initial resource calculation on Batero’s project in Colombia.

On the back of Batero’s resource calculation, I suspect that it will become a target of senior miners that are having a tough time replacing depleted ounces on the books.

TGR: Tembo Gold has a project in the Lake Victoria Greenstone Belt in Tanzania not far from where African Barrick’s Bulyanhulu mine exists. There have been some issues in Tanzania with artisanal miners. Do you expect that to be a problem for Tembo as it has been for African Barrick Gold Plc (ABG:LSE)?

TMN: I don’t think so. It’s really only been a problem for African Barrick at certain projects and not to my knowledge at Bulyanhulu. I don’t think the artisanal miners will be a problem. The country has a very stable mining law, a modern mining act and licensing system. I expect the government will help deal with artisanal miners in a non-confrontational way because, like all governments, it wants royalty revenue from commercial operators.

We made our first investment in 2007 into Lakota Resources, which is the predecessor of Tembo, because we just love the project. It’s one of the best early-stage gold exploration projects in Africa right now. The predecessor company suffered from a number of headwinds and management hiccups. We took the company in-house to deal with the management and capital structure issues and put it back together again. Now the training wheels are off.

There are about 2,000 artisanal miners mining gold on the Tembo property right now. They’ve got hundreds of pits and shafts dug out with chisels, picks and shovels that are producing grades as high as 0.8 oz/t. There’s clearly already a gold mine there. Tembo is mobilizing three drill rigs on the property and is going to spend between $15–25M in the next 12–18 months to prove the existence of a modern, commercial gold mining enterprise as opposed to rudimentary mining activity.

We will be adding to our position once it is publicly traded.

TGR: The company could be a takeover target of Barrick. Is Barrick already an owner?

TMN: Possibly. Barrick never has to buy anybody in its neighborhood, but it’s pretty obvious that it could be a candidate if Tembo defined a significant resource.

TGR: Your top holding is a private company, Newsk Emerging Resources Ltd.

TMN: Newsk is a holding company with an investment in CVG Mining, a private gold exploration company in British Columbia. We’ve been supporting it through equity and debt financings as it develops.

It’s an exciting, but technically challenging project because it’s 165 feet beneath a river in an underground alluvial deposit. CVG has rehabilitated old ramp workings and run a full scale freeze plant. It drilled 15 freeze holes across the river channel, froze the ground and is currently starting a bulk-sample excavation project to determine the actual grade.

The viability of the project could be established in this quarter. We have high expectations because over 100 drill holes put into the project over the last 50 years indicate that there is high-grade coarse gold trapped in the alluvial gravel at the bottom of that channel. The Cariboo mining district in British Columbia is historically the richest alluvial gold bearing area, per mile, in the world.

TGR: If its project is viable, is the company likely to go public?

TMN: Probably, because it will need to raise development capital. There are groups waiting in the background for the results of the feasibility work. CVG’s Wingdam project should be robustly economic at any grade over 0.25 oz/t even with the technical challenge of mining wet unconsolidated material underground.

TGR: What public company that you cover could be the top performer this year?

TMN: Either DNI Metals or Batero Gold. It is a bit of a horse race! Given that Batero is on the verge of its first and likely significant resource calculation, it should do very well shortly. DNI, given the potentially very large scale, should also perform well this year.

Batero is going to be eyeballed by every resource producer in South America and beyond if the resource calculation comes in the way I expect. In that case, I anticipate a large investment by a senior mining group and the stock price could triple or quadruple in 2012.

TGR: This space got off to a good start in 2011, but couldn’t have finished much worse. What are your thoughts on the junior commodity sector going forward?

TMN: There was a lot of money raised in 2008 for companies that shouldn’t have gotten it in the first place. Those companies have been able to limp along and they’re finally dying. After a resource down-cycle—and 2008 was such a violent one—a bunch of companies die. They’re delisted. They go away and people forget about them. That didn’t happen this go-around. There were hundreds of companies with enough in the till to pay the executives and limp along hoping for something good. That confused retail investors, who just saw a company with a couple million dollars in the till and assumed it had some potential. However, most of them didn’t. They got that money just because there was a lot of loose capital in 2008 that caused this cycle to drag on longer.

It’s normal for the industry to rationalize and for companies to dissolve. Investors need to look at who is left standing and realize it is always the good management groups. They’re well capitalized. They’ve got good projects. There has been too much noise for the last couple of years that confused investors even further.

Investors are more objective this year. They’re a little bit smarter after losing money. There’s an old adage on Wall Street that nobody ever went broke taking a profit. Investors are more tempted to take profits because they don’t like the feeling of having a stock that they bought at $0.50/share go to $5/share then fall to $0.30/share. This new comfort with selling resource equities is a healthy thing because it gives investors capital to reinvest in new projects and smoothes the cycle by tempering speculation.

That’s exactly what we do at 49 North. We are not afraid to liquidate positions so that we can move it back to the beginning of the food chain. That creates a healthy capital environment for junior resource explorers. We’re moving into that phase now.

Macroeconomically, things are not going to be hard for resource investors. To be sure, they will be volatile. But it will be very lucrative for patient investors who are objective.

TGR: Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Tom.

Tom MacNeill established 49 North Resources Inc., an incubator fund to raise capital for early-stage projects to develop resources throughout Saskatchewan in 2006; he serves as president, CEO and director of the company. His 25+-year career includes positions as an investment advisor with a major Canadian brokerage firm, management accountant within the mining industry, CFO of a Canadian trust corporation and extensive resource portfolio management.

Government Debt = Terrorism?

The US government’s post-9/11 “war on terror” breathed new life into its long, failed “war on drugs.”  An American public showing signs of increasing disenchantment with the latter was told that drug money fueled and financed terrorism, and that the “war on drugs” was part and parcel of the war on al Qaeda.

Now this, via Reuters:

Italian police said on Friday they had seized about $6 trillion worth of fake U.S. Treasury bonds and other securities in Switzerland, and arrested eight Italians accused of international fraud and other financial crimes. … Potenza’s prosecutor Giovanni Colangelo said an international network “in many countries” was behind the forgeries. Italian daily Corriere della Sera said on its website that the criminal network was believed to be interested in acquiring plutonium, citing sources at the prosecutors’ office.

I can only think of a limited number of reasons why someone would want plutonium, and all of them except for use in atomic/nuclear weapons would more likely run through legal/”official” channels of securities fraud, theft, etc.

Or, to put it a different way, if the US government didn’t visibly run some serious debt, al Qaeda and so forth couldn’t try to finance its nuclear terror aspirations by faking instruments of that debt.

If heroin cultivation in Afghanistan is a “war on terror” concern, so is an unbalanced US government budget and $15 trillion + in US government debt. But I’d advise against holding your breath while you wait to see if Congress declares “war” on those things.

Catch Up

Been stockpiling the following for comment:

Silver shortage vs coin shortage

I’ve been on this issue for a long time, now I have backup from David Morgan: In 2008 there was no shortage of all silver per se, but there was a shortage of coins, bars and other retail “investment” items. The evidence: Much higher premiums back then for small silver products on the street versus the commercial price for average 1,000 ounce commercial good delivery bars in late 2008 and early 2009, since then corrected. I also note that he says it is a myth that silver is currently in shortage.

India’s love of gold

Here in the West the average person (and Buffett) has no idea of how pervasive gold is in East society. Mineweb notes loans against gold as collateral was one of the country’s fastest growing businesses. Though many Indians continue to use the glittering metal to flaunt their family wealth, most working in the informal sector, have few choices to borrow money and resort to pawning their family jewels rather than taking the longer route of bank loans. and By the end of November this fiscal, total credit issued by banks grew at around 20%, while organised gold loans grew at 50%, making it an increasingly important source of liquidity. Typically, most loans are repaid within four months, since most Indians prefer to hoard their gold.

Need to watch that word “hoard”, which can become a dirty word. See this The government had raised the import duty of gold and silver to curb import of precious metals which result in huge outflow of dollars outside the country. Much better you save by giving your money to bankers and if you won’t then Vietnam again leads the way with plans to “mobilize” Gold Bullion held by Vietnamese citizens “in service of the national socio-economic development”.

Venezuela

Gata reports WSJ as saying Venezuelan officials completed a two-month process of repatriating 160 tons of the country’s gold holdings Monday, by welcoming home the final shipment of the precious metal from Europe. Where are those excited gold bulls with the thought that the withdrawal of some 150-200 tonnes of gold from the Bank of England and bullion banks will force a squeeze on traditional stockpiles of gold?

Did Bankers Deliberately Crash MF Global to Crash Gold and Silver Prices? I can’t split between JS Kim and Jeff Neilson for people who have come out of nowhere to be sudden gold market experts. Short answer to JS Kim – no.

Gold Commission

When I see Newt Gingrich calling for a gold standard I start to get worried. How much different is a gold standard under the control of a central bank from fiat? When I see mainstream articles discussing the issue, I wonder if the central bank gold standard is put up to sideline the Ron Paul open currency approach?