Diluting the role of the IIT JEE

The JEE used to serve India well

Many years ago, high school education in India worked in a twin track system: There were those who studied for the IIT JEE and there was everyone else who didn’t. The former studied good books (e.g. Resnick/Halliday (which is a college level book elsewhere in the world), solved physics problems from Irodov, etc.

In contrast, studying for the 12th standard (”board examination”) tended to emphasise rote memorisation, focusing on trivial questions where you had to plug numbers into a formula, emphasised accuracy of calculation and good handwriting. I vividly remember a textbook for 11th class physics used in Maharashtra, which said that Newton’s second law did not apply for living things and powered vehicles. The thoughtful author must have wondered how a stationary cat started walking without the action of an external unbalanced force, and resolved the problem by limiting the footprint of Newton’s second law. The less time that kids spend in studying for board examinations, the better.

I used to be optimistic that the footprint of the enhanced curriculum, and complexity of examination questions, lay far beyond the tiny number of people who entered IIT. Even if only 2,000 kids entered IIT, if 40,000 of them studied for the JEE, it gave them world class capabilities at high school. In each cohort, we got 40,000 people who were very good by world standards. In a country with pervasively low capabilities, it was very useful having this slice of high inequality of knowledge, for it gave a group of people who were able to learn modern technology, connect to globalisation, and create firms which generate a lot of high-paying jobs. It is fashionable to complain about inequality of knowledge, but given that you are in a LDC with a very low mean, would you really rather have very low variance??

With this old configuration, we also got a nice tool for inter-generational class mobility. The middle class got their kids into IIT, and almost all these graduated into upper class by the time they were 30.

More generally, a lot of countries have found that high stakes examinations are a good thing. High stakes examinations push the work ethic, grow the ability of young people to work hard in a sustained manner with high concentration, ensure foundations of mathematics and science, and encourage a meritocracy. They create a self-selected elite of young people who are not immersed in and defined by mass culture. All these are good things.

Problems of the JEE

I used to think like this for a long time. I have reluctantly been persuaded, over recent years, that the JEE isn’t working so well.

Too many young people are studying for the examination and not the subject. The obsessive focus upon coaching classes is producing a one-dimensional personality which isn’t so well suited to entering college. In the 1980s, the most interesting students in IIT were thinking people who read books, knew a lot about the world, and could also solve monkeys on pulleys. With brutal competition, and the coaching classes phenomenon, too often, all that’s left today is the monkeys on pulleys. There is a certain kind of parent who is willing to have a child go live in Kota at age 15. This screened out many families from the race.

Economists know about this phenomenon in agency theory. High-powered incentives are a problem because the agent only focuses on the incentive and tends to cut corners (or worse) on everything that’s not mentioned in the incentive contract. Andrade and Castro bring this generic idea in agency theory into the question of examinations, and find similar effects.

In the 1980s, there was substantial diversity of background, experiences and class amongst the students. This was a good thing, since students would then pick up the culture of people unlike them. In recent years, it appears that there is much greater homogeneity of background, experiences and class. The extent to which the person gets transformed in the four years has, as a consequence, gone down. When very few children of the elite go to IIT, this reduces access to the knowledge and networks of the elite for everyone who goes to IIT. This has reduced the ability of IIT to generate inter-generational class mobility.

Jishnu Das and Tristan Zajonc have found a nice bump in the upper tail of the distribution of skills in India. The pessimist sees this as being about class or caste: certain families bring up kids who know more. The optimist in me used to think this was the bunch studying for the IIT entrance. Also see Geniuses and economic development on the importance of the upper tail of the skills distribution.

It is increasingly difficult to be optimistic about how this is going. Narendra Karmarkar graduated from IITB in 1978, and went on to do truly important work in 1984. My optimism about the IITs peaked in 1984. This should have scaled up manifold in the following years. It has not. In the 1980s, I used to think that by 2010, we’d have atleast one Nobel laureate from the IITs. That has not happened. This tells us that the IITs are not delivering on their early promise; things haven’t worked out well in the following years. I think the JEE is a part of the problem.

One of the most disappointing features of the recent OECD PISA evidence was the absence of this bump in the upper tail. This new evidence shows a scary world of low inequality of skill, of a country with a terrible mean and no upper tail of an elite that can power the country out of mass poverty. I would conjecture two potential explanations for what has been found. One, it could be the case that this testing was done at age 15, at which time not much of the IIT JEE studying has as yet taken place. Alternatively, it could be the case that studying for the IIT JEE is not producing good knowledge.

But the solution being offered doesn’t seem to be the right one

There are two views on how these problems can be solved. The first alternative is to shift away from admissions based on a high stakes examination. Universities in the US screen applicants on many parameters, so this is generally thought to be better. But when we look back in history, universities in the US used to focus primarily on academic performance only, until a glut of Jews showed up in Harvard. The shift to asking for `well rounded personalities’ was a tool by the dominant anti-semetic elite to screen out Jewish kids who did not play football. So we should be cautious in respecting the undergraduate admissions process in the US. It is also important to remember that the quality of kids starting college in the US is quite weak by world standards. There are other countries (e.g. Japan) where large scale high-stakes examinations are used for university admissions, with much success.

I feel that the core problem that we have in India is just too few seats, which has generated a ridiculous extent of competition and distorted behaviour on the part of the kids. The solution lies in solving the policy problems in higher education, so that a large number of kids are taken into world class institutions every year. E.g. adding undergraduate programs at I I Sc, with recruitment through the JEE, was a move in the right direction. We need to grow the size of the entrant class in universities in India, that figure in the Times Higher Education Supplement ranking, by 10-fold. At present, we have only one university in that list – IIT Bombay.

Kapil Sibal is offering neither of the two solutions above: we are not being offered a modified admissions process based on looking at a fuller picture of the child, and we are not being offered a Japanese scale world of high stakes examinations with a lot of seats in world class universities. What we’re being offered is a scaling down of the role of the IIT JEE. A greater role for the 12th standard examination is just a recipe to emphasise rote memorisation, focusing on trivial questions where you had to plug numbers into a formula, emphasising accuracy of calculation and good handwriting. This seems wrong to me.

Finding Fundamentals Key to Gold Investing: Byron King

Byron King The market isn’t rewarding fundamentals just yet for precious metal miners, according to Byron King, editor of Daily Resource Hunter, Outstanding Investments and Energy & Scarcity Investor. But in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, King maps out when rising gold prices will actually lead to rising stock prices for companies with quality projects and solid treasuries.

The Gold Report: Byron, anyone who reads your reports knows two things: you like to tell stories and you like precious metals. The gold price has spent the last 11 years trending higher. Do you see it continuing upward?

Byron King: I anticipate that gold, silver and platinum will all continue to rise in price. There are currency-driven reasons why metal prices are going to keep rising, as well as other issues with overall supply and falling production.

In terms of production, the gold and the platinum production spaces are very precarious. A few very bad things could happen at random and knock global production for a loop and seriously impact supply. Think in terms of a major mine accident in, say, South Africa. Supply could fall off a cliff overnight.

In terms of politics and monetary issues, precious metals create an outside limit on people’s political power. Thus I expect massive amounts of manipulation as we roll along, too. The dollar value of gold, silver or platinum will tend to rise over time, but we could see price spikes up and down due to that manipulation.

TGR: The junior precious metals sector fell hard in 2011. You tend to stick toward the midtier and major precious metals producers with strong cash flow. Those names often have lower risk, but risk can rear its head in that space, too. Major gold producer Kinross Gold Corp. (K:TSX; KGC:NYSE) watched about $3.1 billion (B) of its market cap get buzz sawed off in mid-January after it announced that it would take a $4.6B write-down on its Tasiast gold mine in Mauritania. Kinross spent $7.1B acquiring Tasiast and other assets in the September 2010 takeover of Red Back Mining. Does this serve as a warning to the other majors?

BK: It might be 15 years past the Bre-X scandal, but when it comes to buying and selling gold mines, no amount of due diligence is too much. It gets back to Mark Twain’s comment about how to define the term gold mine. It’s a hole in the ground with a liar standing at the opening of the shaft.

The Kinross writeoff is scary. They’re supposed to be better than that. So when you own physical gold, you can go to bed and close both your eyes. With gold mining shares, you still need to keep one eye open.

TGR: Were you recommending Kinross?

BK: Kinross has been in the Outstanding Investments portfolio for over four years. I’m hanging on to it in the hopes that it will go higher, but it’s been disappointing. It’s not been able to get the share price up and keep it up despite a gold price that has quadrupled.

TGR: Its strategy was to grow through acquiring assets. Apart from buying Red Back Mining, Kinross bought Underworld Resources in the Yukon and Aurelian Resources in Ecuador. Do you believe that was the wrong strategy?

BK: Much of the gold mining investing business is about takeovers. The large companies with, say, 10 million ounces (Moz) a year of output couldn’t discover that much just by sending out their own geologists with rock picks. Gold mining requires an entire process of prospect developers, generators and joint ventures. The better assets get picked up by the larger companies. In fact, Pan American Silver Corp. (PAA:TSX; PAAS:NASDAQ) just announced a takeover of Minefinders Corp. (MFL:TSX; MFN:NYSE). Minefinders is a one-trick pony, but it’s one heck of a pony. It’s the Dolores play in Mexico.

TGR: Sure, acquisitions are key, but many analysts believe that Kinross paid too much for Red Back and it’s now writing down three-quarters of what it paid. Will companies be more loath to spend big dollars in takeovers now?

BK: The acquiring companies have to be smarter and cheaper about takeovers. They have to pay less. Then again, you’re lucky if you get what you pay for, and you never get what you don’t pay for.

The news from Kinross could serve as a wet blanket for the rest of the intermediate and junior mining space. Future takeout plays might see more lowball offers.

It gets back to the idea that an allegedly savvy company like Kinross could make as bad a mistake as it did—at least in retrospect. It’s a wakeup call to the industry. I suppose in the boardrooms of the big mining companies they’re sitting around saying, “We’re much smarter than those guys at Kinross.” All I can say is to be careful of admiring yourself too much in the mirror because I’m sure Kinross thought it was doing the right thing, too.

TGR: In an ironic twist, some analysts are now speculating that Kinross could become a takeover target. Keith Wirtz, chief investment officer at Fifth Third Asset Management, said, “Every dollar lower pushes the stock higher up the list of potential takeovers. That will attract the sharks in the water.” Do you think Kinross will be taken out in 2012?

BK: Kinross has made a big mistake. Now the company has a big bull’s eye pinned on its back. Kinross has some very strong assets. I’m sure other companies are looking at these assets and thinking they could do a much better job at managing them than the guys running the show right now.

TGR: Something else of note in the large-cap gold space is the increase in dividends as gold companies jockey for investor attention with other instruments like real estate investment trusts, exchange-traded funds and even master limited partnerships. One company in particular, Goldcorp Inc. (G:TSX; GG:NYSE), recently raised its dividend again. Do you prefer gold companies with a significant dividend or are other factors more important?

BK: All things considered, I like companies that pay dividends. I like the idea that they bring the shareholders into the equation by sharing some of the wealth. There’s a certain capital discipline in running a company that comes with the knowledge that it has to write a check to the shareholders as well.

TGR: What are some of the major gold producers that are running a dividend that you like?

BK: Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM:NYSE), Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX; ABX:NYSE), IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG:TSX; IAG:NYSE) and Goldcorp are nice dividend players.

TGR: Which one has the strongest growth profile?

BK: Goldcorp. Five years from now, it could be the best overall return.

TGR: Are you following any midtiers?

BK: I’ve been following Minefinders, but it just got bought. I’m waiting for the development at Donlin Creek, Alaska, to come through for NovaGold Resources Inc. (NG:TSX; NG:NYSE.A). Investors are going to have to be patient with this one. It’s over 30 Moz of gold. It’s partnered up with Barrick, but the development has been slower, longer and more painful than I expected. However, over enough time, NovaGold could be quite rewarding to a patient resource investor.

TGR: What undervalued junior or midtier producers could rebound in 2012?

BK: Carlisle Goldfields Ltd. (CGJ:CNSX) at Lynn Lake, Manitoba. It’s an old copper-nickel producing area, but it has had a very aggressive drilling program. I am waiting for an updated NI 43-101 to come out, which could show an expanded resource base.

Reservoir Minerals Inc. (RMC:TSX.V), a spinout of Reservoir Capital Corp. (REO:TSX.V), is a play on mineralization in Serbia. Reservoir Capital was a hydropower and geothermal company with some mining assets as well. Last fall, it spun out the mining assets into Reservoir Minerals.

It’s now a copper project that is joint ventured with Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX:NYSE). It has had extremely good drilling results in a historic gold producing area in Serbia that was one of the richest gold mines in Europe in its day. It was sealed up just before World War II and not unsealed until about two years ago.

Reservoir also controls numerous other mineralized areas in Serbia, which is a very well-run, mining-friendly jurisdiction. That is, we’re not dealing with the Serbia of the 1990s. This isn’t the Serbia that NATO bombed in 1999. This is a modern, European country that is looking desperately for investment. Reservoir Minerals is a key part of the future of Serbia.

TGR: Carlisle has the historic MacLellan mine. What stood out when you visited that project?

BK: It’s in Precambrian greenstone in a shear zone, in a known mineralized district. The greenstone and the shearing outcrop at the surface. Carlisle has great land position in terms of following the strike. It has a very aggressive drilling program, and while results aren’t out officially, from what I can gather from my own examination of the cores, there is a very nice consistency of mineralization all along the strike. I think that when Carlisle gets done with its analysis we’re going to see a very nice resource number at very respectable, mineable grades.

TGR: What investment themes do you expect will be prevalent in the gold space this year?

BK: The gold price should continue the 11-year trend of increasing nearly every year with the possibility of a big jump if a one-off type of event, such as a mine accident, chokes off a large amount of the world’s gold supply. I know accidents aren’t ever supposed to happen—nuclear plants in Japan and cruise ships in Italy are failsafe, right? We have to watch that.

TGR: What about increasing tension in the Middle East?

BK: Tension in the Middle East always seems to drive up the price of oil and the price of gold. People move their resources from one jurisdiction to another, from one form of investment to another. I went to one of the gold souks at the grand bazaar in Istanbul about two years ago. I was astonished that people were mobbing the gold souks, throwing money down and grabbing all the gold coins that they could get their hands on. I saw Russians and people from across Europe just peeling out these €500 notes and buying as much gold as they could take. It was fascinating.

TGR: Surreal.

BK: It was surreal to literally watch people scoop up gold, put it in their pockets and walk out of the stores. People were trying to get rid of cash and buy gold. There’s an entire gold-buying culture that a lot of people in the West are not used to seeing.

TGR: What about the protests, violence and economic sanctions being brought to bear on certain Middle Eastern countries? It seems like the tensions there are certainly hotter than they have been since the early ’80s.

BK: War is bad for business, but the rumors of war are sometimes good for business. I think if the Strait of Hormuz closed or if there was a shooting war in the Middle East, it would drive the price of gold upward. As the price of gold goes up, it’s going to lift the share price for the miners that have good fundamentals.

Right now the stock market is barely paying for fundamentals. It really doesn’t respect stories, let alone blue sky. But if the price of gold keeps going up, the companies with decent fundamentals will also rise.

TGR: Thanks for your insight, Byron.

Byron King is the resident energy and natural resource expert at Agora Financial, LLC. A geologist by training, he worked for the former Gulf Oil Co. and has followed oil industry developments for over 30 years. King’s career path also took him into the U.S. Navy, both in active duty and reserve. In the 1990s and 2000s, King engaged in a vigorous private law practice. For the past five years, King has been writing about energy and natural resource issues for an international audience. Currently, King writes and edits Daily Resource Hunter, Outstanding Investments and Energy & Scarcity Investor. He holds degrees from Harvard, the U.S. Naval War College and the University of Pittsburgh.

Are Federal Employees Underpaid?

I think not:

The wages of federal workers are 2 percent higher than similar private-sector workers, on average.

The benefits of federal workers are 48 percent higher than similar private-sector workers, on average.

The total compensation (wages plus benefits) of federal workers is 16 percent higher than similar private-sector workers, on average.

I guess the relevant question is this: are federal services so efficiently provided and in such high demand that federal employees are truly deserving of a 16% wage premium? If not, federal employees are definitely overpaid.
An alternative question is this: would federal employees be paid as well for doing the same job in the private sector? If not, federal employees are overpaid.

Economic Events on February 7, 2012

At 7:45 AM Eastern time, the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales report will be released, giving an update on the health of the consumer through this analysis of retail sales.

At 8:55 AM Eastern time, the weekly Redbook report will be released, giving us more information about consumer spending.

At 10:00 AM Eastern time, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify to the Senate Budget Committee on the economy.

At 3:00 PM Eastern time, the Consumer Credit report for December will be released. The consensus estimate is that there will be an increase of $7.0 billion in the consumer credit available, after an increase of $20.4 billion in the previous month.