Doug Casey: Glowing Prospects for Uranium

Doug Casey The Western world’s skittishness, skepticism and staunch opposition when in comes to nuclear energy won’t stand in the way of its production elsewhere in the world. It will be full steam ahead in China, India and other developing nations, says Casey Research Chairman Doug Casey, and the Western world is tiny in comparison. In fact, “I’d say uranium is a great place to be for at least the next generation,” he tells us in this Energy Report exclusive. With ever-advancing technology enabling economic recovery in places where it previously wasn’t possible, he’s also optimistic about natural gas and oil.

The Energy Report: Next month, at the sold-out Casey Research/Sprott Inc. “When Money Dies” summit in Phoenix, you’re on tap for a presentation entitled “The Greater Depression Is Now.” Your colleague, Marin Katusa, is on the roster too, talking about “Making Money in Energy.” Marin recently told us there’s a buying opportunity for uranium companies. Given Fukushima’s repercussions in terms of the nuclear energy industry, are you bullish on uranium?

Doug Casey: Absolutely. It’s unquestionably the safest, cheapest and cleanest form of mass power generation. That’s not to say that there aren’t problems, as the Fukushima incident made clear. As much of a disaster as that was—a combination of earthquake, tsunami and radiation leakage—so far it’s just been a big industrial disaster. I daresay that if government hadn’t been so involved in nuclear power these last 50 or 60 years, the technology would have been much further along. Nuclear power would be much safer, cheaper and cleaner than it is today. We might, for instance, be using thorium, which appears to be better than uranium in many ways. We would almost certainly have much smaller, cheaper, and robust reactors.

So, yes, I’m a huge uranium bull. If you want mass power, you need nuclear power. And today that means uranium. I’d say uranium is a great place to be for at least the next generation.

TER: But considering the fact that governments remain involved and people are even more squeamish about nuclear power post-Fukushima, won’t we see a stall in nuclear power and development?

DC: That’s possible. But, the hysteria is mainly going to affect the Western world. China and India recognize they have no alternative to nuclear power. As you know, the growth is in China, India and other emerging economies; it’s where the most of the world’s people live. The Western world is small by comparison, and getting smaller. These other places will continue full steam ahead with nuclear.

TER: Porter Stansberry, whom you know well, recently told us to expect the U.S. to become a net exporter of natural gas in the not-too-distant future. Do you see that as well?

DC: Quite likely. Let’s talk about peak oil first, though. I think that the Hubbert peak theory is accurate, and for good geological reasons—but understand that peak oil doesn’t mean we’re running out of oil. Rather, it means that we’re running out of easily available, cheap light sweet oil. And we are.

However, technology is always improving, enabling economic recovery of oil and natural gas in places where it previously wasn’t possible. Horizontal drilling and the fracking process have opened up gigantic reserves of gas, scores of trillion of cubic feet in some basins in the U.S. So, yes the U.S. could become a huge exporter of natural gas. It’s entirely possible. It could happen in other regions of the world as well, but probably not with gas at its current prices.

The gas is available, but because it’s very underpriced relative to other forms of energy, it probably won’t be produced until the price doubles or even triples from where it is now. That would bring it more into historical alignment with oil prices, which I expect will themselves go higher as well.

TER: How is it that the oil prices have remained relatively high and gas is still so low? Given the differential of the two price points, why aren’t we seeing a conversion from oil-dependent cars, for instance, to natural gas?

DC: Oil has much a greater density of energy than natural gas, and a much more convenient energy-based fuel, so of course we’ve all gravitated toward it. It’s not really feasible for aircraft, for instance, to be able to run on natural gas, so they’ll continue to use oil-based derivatives. In addition, gas is much harder to transport than oil. So it’s tended to be a local market, whereas oil is international.

But since most all the easy, cheap oil’s been found—mostly in the 60s and 70s—and those old oilfields are going into decline, gas is probably the next thing. Gas has some advantages as well. For one thing, it burns cleaner. Remember that these fuels, these petrochemicals, basically contain just hydrogen, oxygen and carbon. As technology advances, we should be able to manipulate these very simple and well-understood molecules and put them into a form we want. We’ll be able to do it ourselves in various ways as nanotechnology, for instance, develops further in the future. Then maybe we won’t have to rely on nature doing it for us over billions of years.

TER: Despite criticism of the effects of government involvement—stifling nuclear energy advancement over the years, as you mentioned earlier, or printing money to paper over enormous amounts of debt, as you’ve pointed out in other interviews—you’ve indicated that improving technology is a countervailing trend that actually will increase the standard of living.

DC: Exactly. There are more scientists and engineers alive today than have lived in all previous history put together; that’s a huge cause for optimism. Technology is very likely to solve many, many problems—as long as the scientists and the free market are allowed to develop these things, and as long as there’s capital available to manufacture the tools they need to do so.

TER: What are you hoping attendees come away with from next month’s summit?

DC: People come to these conferences is to get ideas about intelligent places to put their capital. Today those places are harder to find than has ever been the case before in my lifetime. With the dollar’s imminent demise, staying in cash is also very dangerous. There are very few bargains to be found in the world of investment today. Stocks today are quite overpriced by almost any parameter. Bonds will implode; that’s especially serious because they’re a much bigger market than shares. Property prices are still headed down. So people are looking for answers, and I think we have some.

Beyond answers along those lines, we also host these summits to discuss some investment principles so that our attendees don’t have to rely on us for answers. They’ll be equipped to deal with these things on their own.

TER: What are some things that investors can do to protect themselves?

DC: It’s very hard to be an investor in today’s world, because an investor is someone who allocates capital in a way to create new wealth. Inflation, taxation and regulation make investing very problematic—and all three are becoming much more severe. That said, it’s late in the day but not too late to buy gold, silver and some other commodities. Productive assets of several types are good to own. Of course, the easiest way to buy most productive assets is through the shares of publicly traded companies, but since the stock market is overvalued in my opinion, that’s not the best option right now.

In addition to trying to build personal holdings of gold, and to a lesser degree silver, I think people should learn to be speculators. That’s not to be confused with gamblers, who rely on random chance. Speculators position themselves to take advantage of politically caused distortions in the marketplace, and we’ll be seeing lots of those. In a true free market society, you’d see very few speculators because there’d be very few such distortions. But compounding regulations, taxes and currency inflations are likely to keep markets very volatile. Good speculators will position themselves to both capitalize on inflating bubbles, and identify bubbles that already have been blown to their maximum and are about to pop.

Increasing government involvement in the economy is going to literally force people to become speculators.

TER: What bubbles might speculators look to exploit?

DC: As I mentioned earlier, most forms of real estate in the U.S. are problematic because the U.S. bubble hasn’t completely deflated yet, and real estate bubbles are just starting to deflate in places such as Australia and Canada. Probably the world’s biggest real estate bubble is in China. It’s relatively hard to short real estate, of course. But shorting banks there might work well. . .

Bonds are another story. I’d say bonds are the short sale of the century. They’re going to be destroyed. Bonds pose a triple threat to capital:

  1. Interest rates are artificially low, and as interest rates rise—which they must—bonds will fall.
  2. The currencies that bonds are denominated in, let’s say dollars, will depreciate radically.
  3. The credit risk presented by many issuers—certainly including governments—very high.

On the long side, mining stocks are very cheap relative to the price of gold right now. There’s an excellent chance of a bubble being ignited in gold mining stocks, especially the small ones; in fact, I’d put my finger on that as likely being the easiest way to make a killing—although there’s plenty of risk.

TER: How about technology? Do you see a bubble forming there?

DC: You have a point, but I’m not sure you can talk about technology stocks as a whole; technology is too variegated, too vast a field. I must say, however, that I’ve always been a huge fan of nanotech—that is an area that will change the nature of life itself. The market will see that, and so it’s a definite candidate for a mania. With gold stocks, however, you can jump into a discrete universe.

TER: Any others?

DC: Just talking about the things that seem most obvious to me, like gold. . .well, oil isn’t cheap, but a lot of oil stocks are. Natural gas, as we said, impresses me as being cheap relative to other commodities. A favorite of mine is cattle—the downside is de minimus and the upside is huge.

TER: Well, Doug, thank you so much for your time and this preview of your October event. I imagine you look forward to it for many reasons, including the fact that it’s sometimes nice to be with other intelligent people who want to broaden their horizons.

DC: It is. It’s nice to spend time with others who see things the way you do, and with whom you have some philosophical principles in common. The people who come to our conferences share what I believe to be a sound view of the world. They’re not statists; they’re not collectivists; they’re not misguided, ignorant or wrong-headed. They’re an enjoyable company.

Doug Casey, chairman of Casey Research, LLC, is the international investor personified. He’s spent substantial time in over 175 different countries so far in his lifetime, residing in 12 of them. And Doug’s the one who literally wrote the book on crisis investing. In fact, he’s done it twice. After The International Man: The Complete Guidebook to the World’s Last Frontiers in 1976, he came out with Crisis Investing: Opportunities and Profits in the Coming Great Depression in 1979. His sequel to this groundbreaking book, which anticipated the collapse of the savings-and-loan industry and rewarded readers who followed his recommendations with spectacular returns, came in 1993, with Crisis Investing for the Rest of the Nineties. In between, his Strategic Investing: How to Profit from the Coming Inflationary Depression broke records for the largest advance ever paid for a financial book. Doug has appeared on NBC News, CNN and National Public Radio. He’s been a guest of David Letterman, Larry King, Merv Griffin, Charlie Rose, Phil Donahue, Regis Philbin and Maury Povich. He’s been featured in periodicals such as Time, Forbes, People, US, Barron’s and the Washington Post—not to mention countless articles he’s written for his own various websites, publications and subscribers.

Windfalls all around

So here is something I should have noticed.  I actually will sometimes look at what the state’s revenue reports look like.

The story today on the state of the city’s budget has a real bonus in there.  The city received $10 million more than anticipated in aide from the state for municipal pensions.  The line in the Post-Gazette story is that “Officials weren’t sure why the city and other municipalities were getting extra money this year”.

There is no mystery here at all.  Pennsylvania distributes pension aide to local municipalities from a single dedicated source, the Foreign Fire Insurance Tax. So the more comes in from that tax, the more goes to the municipalities.  You might have thought the recession would put a damper on that type of tax, but I guess we are becoming a risk averse (i.e. insurance loving) society.. That or insurance premia are way up?  I’d like to know which it is actually.

From the June revenue report you get the fiscal year to date data for the 2010-2011 fiscal year in Harrisburg.  Below is the trend for the revenue stream dedicated to local municipal pension.  You will see a big big jump in the fiscal year that just ended.  There is a related story here.  It was not any goodwill toward Pittsburgh in particular that gave us a boost.   That boost in state aide went to most every municipality receiving pension aide from the state.  Should be a lot of happy local officials out there with some ‘free’ money hitting their books.

Anyway… if we looked at that June report that came out last month, it should have been obvious a big(or at least bigger) check was coming our way.

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Fixing American Unemployment

“Of jobs created in Texas since 2007, 81 percent were taken by newly arrived immigrant workers (legal and illegal),” says the report from the Center for Immigration Studies, a group that advocates reduced levels of both legal and illegal immigration. The report estimates that about 40 percent of the new jobs were taken by illegal immigrants, while 40 percent were taken by legal immigrants. The vast majority of both groups, legal and illegal, were not American citizens. (Hat tip: Vox Day.)

Native-born Americans filled just 20 percent of the new jobs in Texas, the report says, even though “the native born accounted for 69 percent of the growth in Texas’ working-age population.” “Thus, even though natives made up most of the growth in potential workers, most of the job growth went to immigrants,” the report concludes.

If you want to fix the unemployment mess America currently faces, do four things:

One, round up all illegal immigrants and guest workers and deport them. I am unable to comprehend how a government that claims to represent the interests of its people even tolerates any foreign workers when the unemployment rate is hovering around 16%. Why is this allowed when citizens are jobless and looking for work? Citizens should be given preference when it comes to domestic policy, and labor is no exception.

Two, deregulate labor. Get rid of the minimum wage, the minimum age, and mandatory overtime pay laws. Price floors always, without fail, create a surplus. Again, labor is no exception.

Three, get rid of government-sponsored welfare, unemployment compensation, and all other forms of paying people to not work. This will give the currently unemployed a very powerful incentive to find and/or create a job. Note, however, that one should not end the dole without first having eliminated minimum wage.

Four, get rid of payroll taxes. Milton Friedman’s monstrously stupid idea to have taxes withheld from one’s paycheck places compliance costs on businesses that they do not face when hiring illegal workers.This, in turn, makes it more difficult for legal workers to compete with illegal workers. As such, ending payroll taxes will reduce the costs of employment, and make it easier for citizens to compete for jobs.

What in the world is happening to the rupee?

The INR/USD rate is now nudging Rs.50 to the dollar. This is a big move over a short period: a depreciation of 12.1 per cent over the 84 days from 1 July till 23 September.

What fluctuations of the INR/USD can we reasonably expect?

After the rupee became a float, so far, it has had average volatility of roughly 9 per cent annualised. Roughly speaking, this means that over a one year horizon, the movement over a year would range between -18 per cent and +18 percent, with a 95 per cent probability. More extreme movements would happen with a 5 per cent probability.

Over a period of 84 days, roughly speaking, we’d have expected this 95 per cent range to run from -8.6 per cent to +8.6 per cent. Compared with that, a 12.1 per cent move is a bit unusual.

It’s only a bit unusual because the historical volatility of the INR/USD, in the period of the float, was rather low. The USD/EUR rate,
which is perhaps the world’s most liquid market, has had an annualised volatility from January 1999 onwards of 10.3 per cent. The INR/USD has got to surely be more volatile than this, given the inferior liquidity of the INR and given the greater macroeconomic volatility in India. Hence, I think we should consider the 9 per cent vol, that was seen in the early days of the float, as relatively unusual. The future will most likely hold bigger values for this vol.

The implied volatility of the INR/USD at the NSE has reared up to values like 14 per cent annualised. That sounds more sensible to me.

What about other currencies?

We tend to do wrong by focusing too much on the bilateral INR/USD rate. In the recent days of distress, as fear has resurged, people
have taken money out of everything under the sun and put it into US Treasury bills. This has given a strong dollar at the expense of
essentially every other currency. Here’s the picture for the INR, against the four major currencies of the world, from 1 July till 22
September:

1 July 22 Sep. Depreciation
(per cent)
USD 44.585 48.821 9.50
EUR 64.804 66.103 2.00
JPY 0.553 0.636 15.01
GBP 71.720 75.481 5.24

The picture of the rupee is much more complex than that implied by simply watching the bilateral rupee/dollar rate.

Can RBI block such a large depreciation?

Let’s think through the steps which would follow if RBI tried to sell dollars in trying to prop up the INR:

  • Global trading in the INR stands at roughly $75 billion a day. If you want to manipulate this market, you need a big stick. Small trades will do nothing. If preventing INR depreciation is the goal, RBI has to go into this with trades of $2 to $5 billion a day, with the willingness to stick it out for the long run. With reserves of $281 billion, there is not much hope here. Specifically, if RBI sells $80 billion in reserves, the market will see that. They will know that further rupee defence is now going to be hard (since $200 billion of reserves is starting to look like a small hoard), and speculators across the world will start betting that RBI’s defence of the rupee will fail.
  • Reserve money is only $275 billion. For each $27.5 billion that RBI sells, reserve money drops by 10%. At a difficult time like
    this, a sharp and sudden monetary tightening will be an unpleasant side effect of defending the rupee. (This trading can be sterilised, but that has its own problems. I just want to emphasise that selling reserves is not easy and is not a free lunch).
  • The rational speculator knows that the exchange rate will eventually find its level. When RBI prevents a large INR depreciation today, they are giving a free lunch to the speculator, who would take a bet that INR would depreciate in the future. Specifically, it would be efficient for domestic and foreign investors to dump assets in India, take money out at (say) Rs.45 to the dollar which is the artificial price, wait for the gradual depreciation to Rs.50 to the dollar, and come back into India to buy back the same assets. This trade generates 11% returns over a short period and is thus very attractive. In other words, a defence of the
    rupee would trigger off an asset price collapse in India.

Meddling in the affairs of the currency market is thus highly ill-advised for a central bank.

Should RBI try to block INR depreciation, even if they could?

Let us play a thought experiment where RBI had $2810 billion, i.e. 10x larger than what’s with us today. In that case, RBI could
play in the currency market, selling $2 to $5 billion a day for a year without serious distress. Is this a good idea?

I would argue that this is not a good idea. When times are bad, the rupee should depreciate. This drives up the profit rates of all
Indian tradeables firms and thus bolsters the economy.

Under a floating rate, in good times, the INR appreciates (which pulls back the exuberance of tradeables) and in bad times, the INR
depreciates (which fuels profits and thus the physical investment in tradeables). This is arguably the only element of stabilisation
in Indian macroeconomic policy
.

RBI is playing this mostly right

From early 2007 onwards, the INR has been quite flexible. In particular, after early 2009, RBI’s trading on the market has tailed
off. There have been a few months with minor amounts of trading by RBI. This trading has mystified me, since these small trades can do nothing to influence the price. In practice, the INR has been a float.

A floating exchange rate is exactly the right stance for difficult times like this. In bad times, the best thing that can happen for
India is a big INR depreciation, thus bolstering the tradeables sector.

Let’s evaluate an alternative policy platform: To peg the INR in normal times but to let go in difficult times. Is this feasible?
Yes. But this is very disruptive: if economic agents have been given an implicit promise that the INR will not move, then the large move (which will surely come) would cause pain. It is far better to stay out of the market all the time, and create a trustworthy structure of expectations in the minds of economic agents about what the future holds.

We had a large depreciation in the crisis of 2008, and that served India well. In similar fashion, we should welcome the INR depreciation that is accompanying global gloom.

The only element of RBI policy where I have a major disagreement is communication. RBI has never used the words floating  exchange rate. RBI needs to clearly communicate to the economy that the rupee is now a market determined exchange rate, and RBI is no longer in the business of trading in this market. There is greater clarity of thought at RBI as compared with the quality of communciation; the speech writing still suffers from twinges of 1960s economics.

What is the collateral damage of a large INR depreciation?

There are three things that go wrong alongside a big INR depreciation:

  1. Firms who have unhedged foreign currency borrowing get hurt, because they have to pay back more than anticipated. A person who borrowed Rs.100 (in unhedged USD) has to pay back Rs.110, owing to the 10 per cent INR depreciation. The stock market is doing a fine job of identifying these firms and beating down their stock prices.Of crucial importance is the fact that from early 2009 onwards, the INR had already moved to a float with a 9 per cent annualised vol. So CEOs and CFOs knew that the INR/USD rate was going to fluctuate. They were not lulled into complacence thinking that the exchange rate was going to be stable. By avoiding this moral hazard associated with pegged exchange rates, RBI’s decision to float in early 2009 laid a good foundation for the structure of firm borrowing as of July 2011.

    When a country has a pegged exchange rate, you tend to see a big buildup of unhedged currency exposure on corporate balance sheets. When the big depreciation comes, the big businessmen then queue up to the central bank begging for defence of the LCY. Prevention is better than cure: It is far better to have high exchange rate volatility all along, so that firms do not undertake such risks, and the toxic political economy does not come into play.

  2. With an INR depreciation, tradeables become costlier. On one hand, this bolsters the profitability of tradeables firms, and
    thus their investment plans. But at the same time, this feeds into inflation. In recent months, tradeables inflation has been  sleeping while non-tradeables have contributed to the high CPI-IW inflation. We will now see a resurgence of tradeables
    inflation. This will exacerbate the inflation crisis. RBI will need to stay on the project of raising rates in order to combat this
    inflation.
  3. The government’s subsidy program with petroleum products and fertilisers gets costlier when the INR depreciates. So India’s
    fiscal crisis gets a bit worse when the INR depreciates.

This logic is rooted in high levels of de facto capital account openness. Sometimes, policy analysts think that you can have your cake  and eat it too, and try to dodge these arguments by utilising capital controls. This has not worked in India, and the levels of de facto
openness have only grown through the years.

In summary, what should RBI be doing?

RBI should be focused on using the short-term interest rate as a tool to bring CPI-IW inflation under control, without distortions of
interest rate policy caused by trying to meddle in the currency market. This should be accompanied by liberalisation of the Bond-Currency-Derivatives Nexus so as to achieve an effective monetary policy transmission. These are the two things that RBI needs to focus on.

India shifted away from government interference in the currency market, from 2007 onwards but particularly after 2009. This is one of the biggest achievements in India’s economic liberalisation. This is a bigger issue in economic liberalisation than (say) decontrol of petroleum product prices. The INR is now a market. Nifty and INR are the two most important markets in the economy. It is time for all of us to analyse the INR as we analyse Nifty: as the outcome of a market process.

Is RBI back to trading the INR?

We don’t know. The data only comes out at monthly resolution, with a two month lag. But early signs that would show up would be unusual jumps in the weekly data about reserves, reserve money, etc. Greater transparency from their side would help greatly.

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