Economic Events on June 23, 2011

At 8:30 AM EDT, the U.S. government will release its weekly Jobless Claims report.  The consensus is that there were 415 ,000 new jobless claims last week, which would would be 1,000 more than the previous week.

Also at 8:30 AM EDT, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May will be released, providing an update on economic activity and inflationary pressure in the United States.

At 9:45 AM EDT, the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index will be released, providing an update on Americans’ views of the U.S. economy, their personal finances and the buying climate.

At 10:00 AM EDT, the New Home Sales report for May will be released. The consensus is that 305,000 new homes were sold last month, which would be 18,000 less than last month.

At 10:30 AM EDT, the weekly Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Report will be released, giving an update on natural gas inventories in the United States.

At 4:30 PM EDT, the Federal Reserve will release its Money Supply report, showing the amount of liquidity available in the U.S. economy.

Also at 4:30 PM EDT, the Federal Reserve will release its Balance Sheet report, showing the amount of liquidity the Fed has injected into the economy by adding or removing reserves.

Manufacturing Mythos

So the President is coming to Pittsburgh on Friday to talk about manufacturing.  We may be at the point now where people forget how much manufacturing was lost here.  At the beginning of the 1970’s the region had just over 325 thousand manufacturing jobs.  Depending on the month, we are around 90 thousand today.  It’s almost hard to imagine the region if we took Pittsburgh today and added in the net 235K manufacturing jobs that were lost.  It’s even a bit hard to figure where we would be right now if we just added back in the 40 thousand or so manufacturing jobs lost in just the last decade.  Yes, that really is the story of late.  It’s not all ancient history and 40K manufacturing jobs that were here in 2000 are not here now.  Whatever story you want to paint on how Pittsburgh is doing economically, you have to talk about it realizing the story includes continuing hits. Not just the manufacturing loss, but all the USAirways jobs as well for that matter.

Anyway, this is what the long term manufacturing trend looks like. Still scary to look at and it’s just lines on a page. Each job was someone’s career, in most cases their only career, and in many households the only wage earner. Lots of pain in that graph.

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Clif Droke: Gold, the Investor Safe Haven du Jour

The yellow metal has maintained its relative price strength during the most recent financial market correction, and gold is now closer to its all-time high than most stock market indices. As an illustration of gold’s leadership, note the following chart. At no time in the last four years has the performance of the benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) outstripped that of gold. The following chart compares the relative percentage performance of the SPX versus the iShares Gold Trust (GLD), a popular and heavily traded gold ETF that tracks the gold price.

cliff droke

As you can see, gold has dramatically outstripped the stock market in terms of relative percentage gains over the last three years since the U.S. economy went into recession. Gold has been the major beneficiary of safe haven funds, as investors rushed to buy gold as a defensive investment. What many analysts are wondering, though, is how much of the gold bull market of recent years is due to safe haven-investment flows and how much is due to other factors, such as industrial and jewelry demand.

A Gold Demand Trends report released on May 19 by the World Gold Council (WGC) suggested that much of gold’s gains in the first quarter of 2011 were driven by growing demand from China and India. Analysts have pointed out that the increasing prosperity of those two countries has made it easier for its citizens to purchase gold bullion, in coin and other forms, but primarily as jewelry, which in India serves the dual role of decoration and personal investment.

The WGC report estimated that Indian households own more than 18,000 tons (18 Kt.) gold, making the country the world’s biggest holder of gold. By comparison, official gold reserves in the United States total about 8,100 tons. Commenting on these statistics, BusinessWeek magazine wrote: “Indian consumers aren’t done buying: In this year’s first quarter, they purchased an additional 206 tons of gold jewelry and 85 tons of gold bars and coins. And China’s appetite is growing rapidly and could soon overtake India’s.”

BusinessWeek found that if Chinese and Indian demand is stripped away, “the rest of the world’s hunger for gold isn’t nearly so vibrant. Some new buyers have shown up; some prior speculators are cashing out. But a global flight to gold as a hedge against Armageddon doesn’t appear to be taking shape.”

There is reason to believe, however, that this conclusion is mistaken. To begin with, jewelry demand doesn’t account for the bulk of the tremendous run-up in gold’s price over the last few years. Gold’s strong performance can be linked primarily to the following four classes of buyers:

  1. Individual investors
  2. Central banks
  3. Hedge funds
  4. ETF holdings

Individual investors in Western countries bought gold as a safe haven investment in the aftermath of the 2008 credit crisis, for obvious reasons. Fear was very high in 2009 and 2010, and demand for gold and silver bullion coins in many categories hit record levels. The extraordinary increase in gold’s cost-per-ounce may have pushed many marginal players out of the market in the last year or two, but that demand was easily supplanted by institutions and hedge funds. Indeed, the appetite for gold displayed by these big money investors has been an oft-overlooked factor in gold’s upside run since 2009, just as it was in the years preceding the 2008 financial collapse.

Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS) recently published the 44th edition of its annual survey of the world gold market, Gold Survey 2011. According to GFMS, gold investment demand last year continued to drive the gold price higher; it rose nearly 26% in 2010 on an annual-average basis. GFMS noted that global gold investment in 2010 was the second highest on record, while world gold investment set a new high last year, in value terms. ETF holdings, notably, experienced the second highest annual gain in 2010 according to GFMS.

In more recent times, added to the list of key drivers behind the metal is a fifth major player—academic institutions—which have been increasingly looked to the yellow metal as a long-term investment. It was reported in April that the University of Texas Investment Management Co., which also handles Texas A&M, had 5% of its $19.9-billion endowment in physical gold bullion. The endowment took delivery of 6,643 bars of gold (664,300 oz.) in what is widely regarded as an extremely unusual move for a typically conservative university endowment.

This may not be the “flight to gold as a hedge against Armageddon” that BusinesWeek talked about, but it makes you wonder what exactly the folks at Texas Investment Management Co. are so concerned about that they would take delivery of physical gold. Perhaps, they know something the rest of us don’t.

If not Armageddon, what reason(s) could there be for owning gold in the years ahead? When it comes to evaluating gold’s long-term prospects, two factors must be considered. Within the typical lifespan of an investor, there are two major periods to buy gold. The first is in the face of hyperinflation, due to its proven performance as the ultimate hedge against an erosion of purchasing power. For example, in the hyperinflation that began in the late 1960s and lasted until about 1980, gold went from $35/oz. to around $800/oz.—proving its utility as an inflation hedge.

The second time to buy gold for the long term is in the face of economic collapse or financial market volatility, as gold has a proven record as the ultimate storehouse of value. For instance, after peaking in 1980 when hyperinflation ended and disinflation began, gold bottomed in 1999 at about $250/oz. at the beginning of economic winter. It has been going up since then, notwithstanding temporary setbacks. If history repeats, gold should begin to accelerate when economic collapse comes to bear, as we approach the fateful year 2014, when the 60-year long-wave, or Kondratiev wave, cycle is scheduled to bottom.

As Cycle Analyst Samuel J. Kress has observed, any portion of the similar increase from 1966–1981 bodes for astronomic prices in gold from here. In recent decades, the buy-and-hold mentality for conventional equities worked until revolutionary changes at the turn of the century retired this strategy along with the buggy whip. “Consequently,” he said, “replacing that gold will be the contemporary equivalent [of equities] and investors should retain long-term positions in gold and add to positions on interim corrections.”

Regardless of whether the economic-Armageddon scenario comes to fruition, there are several reasons gold will maintain its long-term bull market, which began at the turn of this century. If you believe the government will continue debasing the U.S. dollar, the gold price will benefit from this debasement policy. If, on the other hand, you believe the economic, Kondratiev winter of the 60-year cycle will accelerate in the next few years, history has proven conclusively that gold should once again be the safe haven du jour for investors seeking asset protection. Armageddon or not, gold’s long-term prospects are still promising.

Clif Droke is the editor of Gold & Silver Stock Report, published each Tuesday and Thursday. He is also the author of numerous books, including most recently, Gold & Gold Stock Trading Simplified. For more information, visit www.clifdroke.com.

Economic Events on June 22, 2011

The Mortgage Bankers’ Association purchase index will be released at 7:00 AM EDT, providing an update on the quantity of new mortgages and refinancings closed in the last week.

At 10:00 AM EDT, the FHFA House Price Index for April will be released, providing more information about the direction of the housing market.

At 10:30 AM EDT, the weekly Energy Information Administration Petroleum Status Report will be released, giving investors an update on oil inventories in the United States.

At 12:30 PM EDT, the FOMC Meeting Announcement will be made, which will provide insight into how long the Federal Reserve plans to keep rates at 0%.  It is assumed that there will be no immediate change in the Fed funds target rate, but any hint that rates could rise in the future could have an impact on the bond market and stock market.

At 2:15 PM EDT, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold a press conference to discuss the FOMC economic projections.

A Tale of Two Markets

When I say writing matters, it’s no joke.  I still am trying to figure how these two headlines represent reporting on the same exact new data:

Trib:  Western Pennsylvania home sales plummet during May

PG: House Sales in Region Rise in May

Good thing everyone reads more than the headlines.

Ignore the meta for the moment.  The data out there on the local real estate market is getting interesting beyond the generally positive trends that is getting more and more notice nationally.  The fact that average prices are accelerating so much more than median prices here for residential real estate could be quite significant.  It probably correlates with the faster appreciation for new homes compared to existing homes that is being reported as well.

If we are seeing some marginal improvement in population migration into the region, then it follows those folks might be in the market for homes. Do the numbers suggest that the existing housing supply in the region is not what these new residents are looking for.  That is my best hypothesis how we have a bifurcated market to the degree we do with ample supply of for lack of a euphemism we will call low-end housing… but at the same time a lack of supply in what the average US home buyer wants.

Just a hypothesis, but whatever the answer is, it is awfully important and would have lots of implications for growth patterns within the region and possibly overall regional growth.  It all would fit with what is another known known that residential real estate construction has been on life support here for decades.  Lack of new supply has resulted in one of the oldest housing stocks in the nation.  In that sense we have decades of catching up to do before the local real estate market can supply what is common elsewhere.

Speaking of writing…  another headline today:  “Pittsburgh, Worldwide economic powerhouse“. Not over the top is it?  Maybe it is time for Westsylvania to actually secede?

Fiscal Manipulation

Jeb Handwerger To Gold Stock Trades Editor Jeb Handwerger, there is an intriguing purpose in the relationship between the national mindset and the intended purposes of economic establishment. “Are we being programmed for QE3?,” he ponders in this Gold Report exclusive, ultimately proclaiming, “It’s sowing time—not selling time.”

While the media is customarily thought to disseminate news, there is a far more intriguing purpose in the role of the relationship between the national mindset and the intended purposes of economic establishment.

It has ever been thus, going back to Shakespeare’s Salanio character in “Merchant of Venice.” Upon meeting colleagues, the characters would greet each other with the question: “Now, what news on the Rialto?”

The Rialto was a place where the powers that be would meet in the morning and exchange ways to use the day’s news to establish desired policy. The Roman baths were also venues in which senators and policymakers would formulate strategies. Of course, Joseph Goebbels and the Stalinists also realized the pivotal role played in the intermarriage of news and economic policy.

Similarly, today we observe the fine “Roman hand” in planting stories to influence a kind of Orwellian mindset in the furtherance of establishing desired fiscal objectives—the doublethink, paranoia, deception and delusion.

It is more than coincidental that, when the elites wish to formulate their desired goals in such matters as quantitative easing (QE), bailouts and Keynesian pump priming, negative economic data will be released. It’s the same old story.

The Obama team is dedicated to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s philosophy of avoiding depression through the printing press to proliferate cheap money. We are being set up for the acceptance of quantitative stimulus by whatever means and guises necessary.

Until now, everything was coming up roses. National recovery was in the air. Then, all of sudden this week, data turned on a dime. Economists were compelled to rethink hitherto positive figures. Are we being programmed for more QE?

It would not be surprising if we were finessed into acceptance of inflationary policies. Bills could be paid with cheap dollars. Moribund local and state governments could pay off their strangling debts. Think of our swollen budget being paid with cheap dollars. A seemingly simple solution to a complex problem. However, there may be another side to the seesaw.

Our erstwhile allies, such as China and Russia, have been making noise about setting up an alternative currency. Witness Greece and the PIIGS nations (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain). They are desperate for money to extricate themselves from their financial quicksands. More bailouts anyone?

Foreign governments are buying gold at levels not seen in 30 years due to risk of further declines in the U.S. dollar.

Goldman Sachs is under subpoena in Manhattan as possibly playing a major role in the housing market fiasco. The Manhattan District Attorney is investigating “activities in creating and selling mortgage-based securities designed to allow the bank to profit from the collapse of the housing market.”

One cannot but hope to consider that many of these dramatis personae are some of the very same folks that are steering our national financial ship of state. Prayer anyone?

All these roads lead clearly to the validity of Gold Stock Trades’ essential message. Precious metals, either mining stocks or physical bullion, may be the requisite ports in the upcoming storm.

One need not be a weather forecaster to see the gathering dark clouds and approaching black swans. Hard money is real money. Look only to the best-managed and -financed miners as safe harbors in the gathering tempest. The storm takes time to form. To paraphrase Louis XV, “Après moi, le deluge,” (after me, the deluge).

Sophisticated readers don’t have to be regaled by today’s headlines. They are well aware of the economic syndrome that afflicts our economy by such current headlines as Market Stumbles as Factories, Hiring Slows Down; Biggest Drop in Stocks in a Year; State and Local Governments Going Broke; Unemployment Rises, etc.

The voice of Cassandra is heard across the land. Where does all of this negation leave the intelligent investor who is seeking a life preserver with which to ride out the storm?

The U.S. economic system, which had been the jewel of the world, is in crisis. How long can even the healthiest of systems continue being raped by CEOs that walk away with millions from institutions that are crowned “too big to fail?” They have been bailed out by monies contributed by the great American middle class, which is rapidly being disenfranchised by having to pay for a violated economy.

There is talk of QE3 coming to rescue this sick patient—this may be a placebo that does not cure the ailment. After all, Bernanke instituted QE2 only after deciding that the system was too weak to stand on its own. The treatment has always been in front of our very eyes—sound money in a healthy economy. Instead, we relied on the economists for fiat cures.

Indeed, among the few areas that have held up during this recent liquidity selloff have been gold and silver bullion. Both gold and silver bullion continue to move higher as equity markets decline, showing its relative strength. In fact, as of this writing, gold bullion is challenging record levels, while gold miners are hitting new 2011 lows.

The current market acts as if it was a skillful boxer—bobbing, weaving and full of head fakes designed to confuse us. We have entered into the summer doldrums (or should I say, “goldrums”) in mining stocks.

Do not be fooled. Precisely at such time is a beehive of footwork occurring beneath the surface. The miners are planting the seeds in what has always been a seminal season before the harvest. They are entering into the drilling and exploring period, which will hopefully lead to pay dirt in the autumn.

What does this imply for astute investors who are aware of the territory? It’s sowing time—not selling time. There is fear in the land that may be the antecedent to panic. Nightmarish scenarios of a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis lurks in our subconscious. Good paper may have to be sold to cover bad mistakes.

Gold is continuing toward our $1,600 June target, while the miners continue their nine-month consolidation. These extended formations potentially lead to explosive breakouts. Don’t forget August 2010, when silver broke out from major resistance at $20 and we saw its historic move. Could August 2011 be similar for the undervalued miners?

Miners tend to lag the price of bullion, as many of the industry analysts use a trailing three-year bullion (average) price to value projects. The velocity of gold’s price ascent this past year is not reflected in current valuations.

Once these higher metrics are updated in the fall, many of the miners may see gains to reflect the more-accurate values of their assets. I will publish new gold and silver mining stock recommendations when I see a clear recovery and reversal in the miners.

Patience and fortitude are our constant marching orders. We are in the midst of a correction in mining stocks that may be short-lived, albeit breathtaking. Heretofore, gold bullion has pretty much kept in lockstep with the miners. In this summer season, we have seen a divergence between the two. Such an anomaly is seasonal and transient.

I believe we may see miners catch up in the second half of the year, which, historically, has been an annual occurrence. We have entered the summer “goldrums,” which has become an annual event. Many mining stocks are extremely undervalued and oversold.

Actually, we are at the most divergent level from the mean between miners and the metal in many years. There may be a reversion to the mean between miners and the gold price during the second half of 2011. This period could be setting up an updated base for miners.

The low-volume selloff in miners to long-term support levels indicates shrewd precious metal investors may not have sold their mining equities. Many have reported that they’ve reallocated their holdings in bullion and repositioned into out-of-favor mining stocks while they are on a “fire sale.”

This year, I expect very exciting third and fourth quarters for mining equities as investors realize the potential of gold and silver discoveries during this secular dollar bear market and global currency crisis.

Remember that the arc of precious metals moves to confuse us, but it continues to ascend upward. Presently, our service is in a holding period, waiting for a potential signal for a reversal to add or initiate a position in the best-managed and well-financed mining stocks.

Only the most adroit of traders can manage to exit, and then enter again. The U.S. dollar, while seemingly a safe haven, is acting questionably at this time. Understandably, investors are nervous and deciding, to use the old boxing analogy, to ‘throw in the towel’ prematurely. Careful monitoring of the markets is required. Volatility has significantly increased as we come closer to the expiration of QE2 at the end of June.

Many imponderables await us that could constructively affect our precious metals portfolio, such as elections in North Africa, turbulence in Syria and Iran, instability in the PIIGS nations, U.S. credit downgrades, QE3 uncertainty, etc. The list is endless and abounds with reasons that validate adherence to our policy of precious metals, which includes well-managed and positively financed mining stocks in friendly jurisdictions. To actively monitor these developing stories on a daily basis, click here.

Gold Stock Trades Editor Jeb Handwerger is a highly sought-after stock analyst who is syndicated internationally and known throughout the financial industry for his accurate and timely analysis of the equities markets—particularly the precious metals sector.

Making sense of the Mauritius tax treaty

Since the Mauritius treaty is back on the front burner, do see some sophisticated thinking on how the tax system can be made compatible with globalisation:

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Economic Events on June 21, 2011

At 7:45 AM EDT, the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales report will be released, giving an update on the health of the consumer through this analysis of retail sales.

At 8:55 AM EDT, the weekly Redbook report will be released, giving us more information about consumer spending.

At 10:00 AM EDT, the Existing Home Sales report for May will be released.  The consensus is that existing homes were sold at an annual rate of 4.75 million last month, which would be a decrease of 300,000 from last month.

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Foreign Trade Revisited

The current support for free trade is based on the supposition of defending consumers from higher prices. What the higher prices would indicate, if they were allowed to occur, is that American production is being destroyed. The laws of supply and demand would bear this hypothesis out because the cumulative effect of domestic economic regulation is to reduce supply of goods produced. Since demand either stays the same or increases (population trends in America aren’t negative yet), the net effect will be increasing prices.
As noted, foreign trade counterbalances potentially rising prices by increasing the supply of goods offered. Foreign nations do not have the restrictions on labor or environmental effects that plague American businesses, which means that they can produce goods cheaply, enabling them to remain profitable.
Foreign trade, then, redirects consumption away from American producers, who could be competitive if the government allowed them, to foreign producers. Free foreign trade policy coupled with oppressive domestic regulation has the same effect as direct subsidization of foreign business, which begs the question: why is the American government subsidizing foreign business?
The answer is not particularly clear-cut. Most conservatives who support free trade don’t view it as subsidizing foreign producers; they view it as defending consumers. And most leftists don’t view foreign trade as a way of destroying business; some see it as imposing proper regulations on business. Actually, leftists are all over the map on this. Pro-union leftists oppose foreign trade; enviro-leftists either support it as a way to encourage raising foreign environmental standards while some oppose it as a way to encourage raising foreign environmental standards. It might help to note that Bill Clinton signed NAFTA into law, and Paul Krugman has written a book defending free trade.
Additionally, multi-nationalists generally support free trade because it destroys national identity and power, and because it undermines the American economy. Of course, some of the latter is America’s own doing: there’s no need for America to handicap its own business with high taxes and excessive regulation.
At any rate, the current policy of foreign trade is quite damaging to the American economy. This does not require import quotas and high tariffs per se, but it requires that foreign producers be held to the same standard as domestic producers if they wish to sell in America. To have a policy which grants special advantages to foreign producers at the expense of local producers is simply asinine.

Inflation targeting: What have we learned

Inflation targeting: What have we learned, a seminar by Spencer Dale, Chief Economist of the Bank of England, at NIPFP, 16 June.