Rick Mills: Which Stocks Will Win Race to Feed a Power-Hungry World?

By The Energy Report, on June 29th, 2011

Richard Mills Uranium and potash prices seem to be inversely correlated lately: As potash prices reach their highest levels, uranium prices have suffered. But Richard (Rick) Mills, host of Ahead of the Herd online and editor of the Ahead of the Herd newsletter, believes the prospects for both industries are bright. In this exclusive interview with The Energy Report, Rick explains why the U.S.’ commitment to nuclear power and even biofuels is helping to propel both markets.

The Energy Report: German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently decided to shut down the country’s nuclear reactors that began operating prior to 1980. Germany will ultimately disband its nuclear energy program in favor of gas and wind power following the fallout from Japan’s nuclear disaster in March. Meanwhile, Japan is also attempting to lessen its dependency on nuclear power. How has that disaster permanently changed the uranium market?

Rick Mills: It’s a short-term hiccup and it’s probably presenting us with one of the greatest buying opportunities for carefully selected uranium stocks that a retail investor can get. The global nuclear renaissance that was underway in early 2010 was happening for specific reasons: concerns about climate change, reducing carbon footprints, energy security and the rising cost of fossil fuels. And then the disaster hit. It gave pause to the renaissance, but none of these reasons have gone away.

Germany’s kneejerk reaction shut seven of its nuclear reactors. They won’t be opened again. Its other reactors will also be completely mothballed by 2022. But the thing is that in 2002 Germany’s center-left coalition enacted a law to phase-out nuclear power. Last autumn, Merkel’s center-right coalition government decided to extend the lifetimes of the country’s 17 reactors by an average of 12 years. That decision was based on a judgment that Germany could not meet its power demand using only natural energy sources, such as wind and solar. The country doesn’t have abundant natural gas reserves. So, I find it pretty ironic what’s happening over there. I think Germany may suffer when it finds it can’t maintain its manufacturing competitiveness. Germany is now burning more coal, and already buying more nuclear power-generated electricity from France and the Czechs, who use the old Soviet-style reactors.

TER: There’s a lot of talk right now about thorium replacing uranium as the fuel in nuclear reactors. These reactors could use thorium, which is much more stable than uranium, and roughly performs the same function. Do you think that thorium will ultimately replace uranium?

RM: Ultimately, but we’re 35 to 40 years away from incorporating that technology. Uranium’s got a long way to run. I believe thorium will be the answer one day, but not for several decades at least.

TER: What about the U.S.? It has some reactors slated to come onstream over the next 5 to 10 years. Do you think that the U.S. is going to follow suit with Germany?

RM: The U.S. is going to ramp up its nuclear power. On April 21, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission renewed the operating license for the U.S.’s largest atomic plant, the Palo Verde nuclear generating station in Arizona, for 20 years. The U.S. Department of Energy just dedicated a new research facility on May 3. The U.S. is accelerating the advancement of nuclear reactor technology. It’s studying the performance of light water reactors and developing highly sophisticated modeling that will help accelerate upgrades at existing nuclear plants.

That doesn’t sound like the U.S. is in any way, shape or form going to cut back. As a matter of fact, U.S. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu just said nuclear energy is the nation’s largest source of carbon-free power and it is an important part of the U.S. energy mix moving forward.

Uranium supplies are going to get very tight. There’s going to be fierce competition for available material in both the spot and long-term markets. Investors should be looking at uranium-focused juniors with money in the treasury. We’re being set up for the perfect storm in uranium.

TER: Since the disaster at the Fukushima plant in Japan, the spot price for uranium has fallen to about $50/lb. from around $73/lb. in early March. Many junior uranium miners and explorers have seen their share prices fall dramatically since then, too. What are some companies that you think offer a lot of value as a result?

RM: Uranerz Energy Corp. (TSX:URZ; NYSE.A:URZ) is one of the best uranium companies out there. The management is top-notch. These guys wrote the book on in-situ leach mining.

Uranerz is going to be included in the Russell 3000 Index again. If you want to see something interesting, pull up a chart from June 2009 when it was included on the Russell the last time. Funds that track that index have to include these new additions. We’re talking about an awful lot of money. It’s going to be interesting to see what happens to Uranerz’ share price as this becomes common knowledge.

Uranerz is waiting for its final permit to start well field construction and build its production facility. Currently, the company has $45M in the treasury; that’s $0.60 a share. Costs to get into production are estimated to be $35M, so the company has some money for contingencies. I expect Uranerz to be in production in 12 to 15 months. Currently, two drill rigs are performing exploration drilling. Uranerz has identified over 483 kilometers (km.) of alteration-reduction trends on its project areas which cover 38,000 hectares. Uranerz has explored only 15% of the identified trends. One drill is doing delineation drilling for the construction of the well fields.

TER: We’re talking about the Powder River Basin Project in Wyoming?

RM: That’s right. The Nichols Ranch project is expected to produce a maximum of 2 Mlb. of yellowcake annually. Initially, the project is targeting 600,000 to 800,000 lb. per year. The company has long-term offtake agreements signed for a portion of production with two major U.S.-based nuclear operators, including Exelon Corp. (NYSE:EXC). The U.S. produces 27% of the world’s nuclear power from 104 nuclear reactors—these reactors use 50–55 Mlb. of uranium a year but the U.S. only produces 4 Mlb.

Uranerz is a company that has its act together and is definitely sitting at a sweet spot for investors. While there’s a little bit of blood in the streets right now concerning uranium, people should be looking at this sector.

TER: That production could be coming on-stream right about the time when uranium prices could be rebounding.

RM: The spot market is definitely going to tighten up before then and people are going to be looking for long-term contracts. This setback, if anything, makes the market stronger. Prices will eventually move higher.

TER: Potash has somewhat of an inverse relationship to uranium prices. Earlier this month, corn futures reached an all-time high, which ultimately means higher food prices for all of us. It also means there’s a greater need for fertilizer and that bodes well for junior mining companies looking for potash. Do you believe that potash prices will remain as high as they are now?

RM: Yes I do and going higher. Food and how we grow it are going to be dominant investment themes for decades to come. Our population increases geometrically. Our food supply can only increase arithmetically. We’ve got major problems in addition to our growing population. One of the biggest threats we are facing is the loss of arable land that was used for food production. Land is being used for biofuels, topsoil is being eroded away and the agricultural land base is being paved over. We’re destroying our freshwater aquifers. But world population growth and three billion people climbing the protein ladder are the elephants in the dining room. Tonight, 220,000 new mouths will need to be fed at the dinner table.

TER: How does potash mining differ from gold or copper mining?

RM: Unlike other resource plays, potash does not have a cycle. Demand is always going to be there, which makes potash an excellent play in a long-term agricultural commodities bull market. Potash markets are never disrupted by political interference. Food shortages will always trigger social and political instability, such as the riots in the Middle East and Africa. All governments fear a hungry populous.

Companies like Agrium Inc. (NYSE:AGU) and PotashCorp (TSX:POT; NYSE:POT) have very solid bottom lines, but they are mature companies. Investors should start moving down the value chain to junior companies with big potash resources that are going to create value for their shareholders.

TER: What companies fit that bill right now?

RM: We’ve been following three companies on Ahead of the Herd for quite some time now.

Verde Potash (TSX.V:NPK), formerly Amazon Potash, is putting together a fairly large project in Brazil. By the time it finishes, I wouldn’t be surprised if it had enough potash to supply the Brazilian market, the largest potash market in the world, for 30 years.

The company also has phosphate at the Apatita Project and should have a resource calculation out by the end of the third quarter. It is also planning drilling on five other targets bordering their thermal potash product, the Cerro Verde. Recent news suggests they will have a limestone resource as well. This is a company that is definitely in the right area at the right time with the right resources.

The thing about this company that most people don’t realize is that if the potash price is $430/t in Saskatchewan, Canada, it would take $100/t to reach a port in Brazil. Then it would take another $100/t to get it to a blending facility near farmers. The price that Verde’s competing against is not $430—it’s $630—they are already close to that blending facility. According to the last test the company did on its product, thermal potash is about 17% to 19% more effective than KCI, or typical potash.

TER: Verde’s chairman, Peter Gundy, was an executive with PotashCorp. He certainly has some significant background in the potash mining business. He also has the right connections to get the money necessary to bring this company forward.

RM: Absolutely true, and let’s not forget to mention the tremendous efforts of President and CEO Cristiano Veloso, who has done an amazing job pulling it all together, and VP of Corporate Development Jed Richardson, who has been there from day one. Also the government of the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais has signed a memorandum of understanding regarding support for potential financing.

TER: What’s the next name you’re following on Ahead of the Herd?

RM: Western PotashCorp (TSX.V:WPX) has done really well for its shareholders and we were early into this one as well. It’s adjacent to BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE:BHP; OTCPK:BHPLF) and Agrium’s exploration permits, and within 13 km. of PotashCorp’s Rocanville facility. The company has 34 Mts. of indicated potash with 245 Mts. of inferred.

Pat Varas and his team have done an exceptional job advancing this project so quickly. The company is doing a prefeasibility study to be completed in the fall, and is planning to start on its feasibility study in August. That’s an amazing amount of engineering going into the project right now. WPX has a memorandum of understanding signed with the city of Regina for water. It’s doing environmental studies and community visits.

Western’s land acquisition program has now successfully secured over 2,550 acres at the company’s preferred plant site location. Securing the plant site location is an important aspect of the ongoing feasibility process as the environmental and regulatory approval processes and project schedules are dependent on it.

TER: Is it a takeover target given its proximity to PotashCorp?

RM: It could be. One of the majors might want to take it and put it on the shelf; the Chinese or Indians have to be interested. I think that’s very possible.

TER: Is there a point where juniors get on the radar screen of larger companies and wake up the sleeping giants like BHP Billiton?

RM: Definitely. I think the major players, the BHPs of the world, are probably looking for at least a prefeasibility study. They want to see solid numbers—capital expenditures and costs of production, net present values and internal rates of return that actually have solid studies behind them. None of these majors have a history of moving too quickly. They’re trudging behemoths that do things at their own pace and need surety in a deal.

TER: There was one more potash company you wanted to talk about. What was that one?

RM: Encanto PotashCorp (TSX.V: EPO) in Saskatchewan, Canada. What makes this one interesting is that they are collaborating with several First Nations groups to develop projects on their lands.

TER: In fact, Encanto was developed with that in mind, right? It was developed with the idea that it would work with First Nations to develop these resources.

RM: Absolutely. The first project Encanto started was developing an 80-to-100-year resource on the Muskowekwan’s land. The goal is to develop a producing mine as quickly as possible. EPO’s upcoming preliminary economic assessment (PEA) remains on schedule to be released in the first half of August. The PEA is designed to determine the most economical method for potash extraction and will make a recommendation on a solution or conventional mining operation.

It hasn’t had the success in the market that Verde and Western have seen because the necessary reserve vote on continuing with development of the project hasn’t happened yet and that creates uncertainty. The vote will happen in the fall; it’s scheduled for late September.

TER: The whole operation hinges on that vote?

RM: Yes. Newly elected Chief Bellerose ran on a pro-potash forum. The majority of candidates also ran on a pro-potash forum, as did all eight successful councilors. I firmly believe it’s going to be passed. But there seems to be some hesitation in the market over it.

TER: If the vote does go through as expected, we could we see a bump in the share price. It’s at $0.23 right now.

RM: The band has approximately 1,050 eligible voters, many of whom don’t live on the home reserve. For the vote to be considered a legal vote, at least 51% of eligible voters must cast a vote. For the vote to be successful, at least 51% of those voting must cast in favor. If a sufficient number of voters don’t participate in the first vote then the vote is considered a failure; a second vote will be held on the home reserve 35 days after the first vote. For the second vote to be successful, a simple majority is required from those who vote. In an effort to ensure that all band members are fully aware of the benefits offered through the partnership with Encanto, Bellerose is holding open sessions in Regina, Calgary, Winnipeg, Saskatoon and Edmonton.

There are really two drivers for the stock: the vote and getting the Home Reserve Lands, which will double the land acreage (and potentially the resource). It’s been a long haul, but I believe that this is going to be a successful company and we’re going to see it move forward.

TER: What are some things that investors should keep in mind when investing in potash companies?

RM: It’s a long-term investable trend and with surging prices for agricultural commodities, farmers are looking to boost crop yields, opening the door for fertilizer makers to raise prices. There might be temporary weaknesses, but everybody has to eat and there are 220,000 more of us at the dinner table every night. So there are compelling reasons to be looking at these companies. Also, these are not cheap mines to build. The companies need management teams capable of going out there attracting the interest from the institutions and raising the money necessary (all three companies I mentioned do). Their neighborhood is also important. Who’s in the neighborhood? Could a company be a takeover target?

TER: Thanks, Rick.

Richard is host of www.Aheadoftheherd.com and invests in the junior resource sector. His articles have been published on over 300 websites, including: The Wall Street Journal, SafeHaven, Market Oracle, USAToday, National Post, Stockhouse, Lewrockwell, Uranium Miner, Casey Research, 24hgold, Vancouver Sun, SilverBearCafe, Infomine, Huffington Post, Mineweb, 321Gold, Kitco, Gold-Eagle, The Gold/Energy Reports, Calgary Herald, Resource Investor, Mining.com, Forbes, FNArena, Uraniumseek, and Financial Sense.



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“If I was in Pittsburgh, I would have a guaranteed job”

By Christopher Briem, on June 29th, 2011

Whether true or not, just the fact that this is someone’s perception out there is pretty amazing.  From the Philadelphia Inquirer today is a young diasporan’s comment: “”If I was in Pittsburgh, I would have a guaranteed job,”  When was the last period anyone even thought such a thing, let alone said it out loud and for the record?

Just a conincidece that story runs on the say we get the monthly data dump which is showing the regional unemployment rate ticked up a bit.  The curious thing about the regional unemployment rate the last few months is that the trend has diverged from the state’s unemployment rate.  Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate has trended down, while Pittsburgh’s has trended up.  That is unusual over recent years.  What’s it mean?  If not a sample error issue that will converge, it is worth watching.  Still the regional unemployment rate is well below the state and far below the nation. by 2.1 percentage points which is nearly a record.

I’ve been trying to figure if any period before 1970 is comparable to today and it’s a bit hard to compare  The lowest recorded unemployment rate for the region since the state began regularly reporting Pittsburgh region labor force data in 1949 I think was 2.3% in November of 1966.  But the labor market area back then was 4 counties and if you did any spatial adjustment it would not be so low.  Still, even then, with a national unemployment rate of 3.6% the difference was only 1.3% points.

Which all goes back to our quote above. High local employment at 7% or not, people make the best choices they can.  Regional unemployment rates in themselves are not very good predictors of population migration, but relative unemployment rates do much better.  Things could be great in one location, but if things are even better elsewhere folks will move away.  Similarly, things can be bad in one region, but if they are even worse elsewhere folks will move in.  So we are at 57 months and counting since the national unemployment rate was lower than the region’s and most of that time by an unprecedented amount. Barring some unprecedented convergence we will get to 5 straight years in the fall.

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Jim Powell: Meeting the Critical Metals Demand

By The Gold Report, on June 29th, 2011

Jim Powell Is there a clear path to meeting growing global critical metals demand? An important first step, according to Laurentian Bank Securities’ Technology and Strategic Metals Analyst Jim Powell, would be to establish supply sources that aren’t concentrated in a single country—particularly one that isn’t inclined to share its resources with the rest of the world. In this exclusive interview with The Critical Metals Report, Jim points out some potential plays to look for while the landscape is changing.

The Critical Metals Report: There’s a lot of confusion about the future supply and demand equation for critical metals, which we’ve defined as rare earth elements (REEs), minor elements and strategic metals. What do you consider the most important minerals and why?

Jim Powell: In terms of investment options, I’d focus primarily on electrolytic manganese metal (EMM), fluorspar, graphite, tungsten and rare earths.

TCMR: Why is that?

JP: A lot of these are controlled by one supplier—China—in most cases. The overall EMM market isn’t huge, but it’s large enough to leave room for other suppliers. At this time, China supplies more than 98% of that market.

Fluorspar is used in acids and fluorine-based chemicals, so a lot of chemical companies need it, as do steel and aluminum manufacturers. Fluorspar is more than 50% supplied by China.

TCMR: How about graphite?

JP: Graphite’s another mineral that’s also controlled largely by China. There used to be a fair number of producers in North America and Europe, but most of them shut down over the last 10 years as China outpriced them in the market. Graphite is a refractory used primarily in nuclear reactors and batteries. Actually, there’s more graphite than lithium in lithium-ion batteries.

Tungsten is somewhat underappreciated for what it does. It’s widely used in tooling, in the mining industry—even in products, such as the Blackberry. Those little vibration elements used in the Blackberry are made of tungsten. China currently produces in excess of 80% of the global supply of tungsten with a handful of minor suppliers in Canada and Russia sharing the rest.

Of course, China also dominates the supply of rare earths, which are pretty mainstream because even though it’s a very tiny market, REEs are very critical elements. There are lots of investment options there—almost too many.

TCMR: You’ve mentioned batteries, manufacturing, tooling and electronics. Where is the major demand for these elements? Is it technology for alternative energy? Is it magnets? What’s driving the demand?

JP: A lot of it’s technology-related; the bulk of the rare earths go into technology-type applications. As I said, batteries use graphite and a variant of electrolytic manganese—EMD, electrolytic manganese dioxide. The current generation of batteries for cars, such as GM’s Volt, is manganese-type batteries. So, there’s another clean-tech focused use.

Industrial use is also important. Tungsten is pretty much all industrial use, and so is fluorspar. EMM is used largely to manufacture stainless steel and aluminum.

TCMR: You said that China dominates the market for the EMM that’s used in the new batteries?

JP: Yes, and probably the biggest issue with that is what happens if China uses it all domestically. If it can, it will. We’re seeing that with the export quotas China has on rare earths, and that could start with some of these other minerals as China runs out of internal supplies. The carbonate deposits from which China mines EMM are running low, and it might just decide not to supply the rest of the world anymore. As a result, we have a somewhat unreliable supplier—one that may at any time just use it internally to satisfy its own demand.

TCMR: Are you following any companies that have the potential to create EMM supplies outside of China?

JP: Yes. There’s only one company—let’s face it—that’s solely focused on it. American Manganese Inc. (TSX.V:AMY, OTCPK:AMYZF) is poised to become the lowest-cost EMM producer. That’s mainly due to the fact that the type of deposit AMY has is easily leachable into acid. In addition, the company has lower-cost power in Arizona versus competitors in China and South Africa. Those are its main technical advantages.

TCMR: You have a target price of $2.90 on that; is that correct?

JP: Yes. And that’s what I’m sticking with, even though it’s a fair bit away from current pricing. I actually felt the target was somewhat conservative—not aggressive at all; a relatively high discount rate. It’s just that AMY will be able to make EMM for around $0.50/lb., whereas it currently sells in Europe for $1.55/lb. to $1.60/lb., and around $1.80/lb. in the U.S. AMY’s production costs will be so low that the company could even make money selling their product into China.

TCMR: China’s lock on rare earth supplies, worsened by its export quota policies, has increased REE prices significantly. How will high rare earth prices and lack of supply affect future demand? Will manufacturers engineer alternatives to these elements?

JP: There are ways of doing things without some of the rare earths, but some of the heavy rare earth elements (HREEs) used in phosphorous, for example, are harder to replace. Neodymium as a permanent magnet is the most superior type of magnet. An alternative is an induction motor, which is larger and less efficient but can do the job. The Volt uses an induction motor, as does the Tesla Motors car in California, so those are examples that use a substitute for REEs that costs less but weighs a little bit more and delivers lower performance. So, there are ways around it.

You’re also seeing Sumitomo Corp. (TKY:8053; OTCPK:SSUMF) selling cerium, lanthanum and other products coming out of its deal with Molycorp Inc. (NYSE:MCP) in Japan where customers are either designing the REEs out of their products or learning how to use less. That’s partly because they just won’t accept the high REE prices anymore, but I think a bigger part is lack of availability. Besides, manufacturers don’t want to be tied to one supplier that could change its mind about shipping the product at any point in time.

TCMR: Are other companies positioning themselves to meet that demand outside of China?

JP: Yes, early on I think it will be Molycorp and Lynas Corporation (ASX:LYC) that help ease supply issues with many of the light rare earth elements (LREEs). I have no doubt that both of them will reach production within the year. It will probably bring pricing down quite a bit on the lights, though, and probably result in an oversupply of certain light minerals, such as cerium and lanthanum, in the short term.

TCMR: How about the heavies?

JP: I believe that over the longer term, the heavies will still be in demand, and that demand won’t be met until larger rare earth producers, such as Avalon Rare Metals Inc. (TSX:AVL; NYSE.A:AVL; OTCQX:AVARF) and Quest Rare Minerals Ltd. (TSX.V:QRM; NYSE.A:QRM) come online, which isn’t until 2015–2016. So, they’re still some time away from production. In the short term, that’s going to keep the HREE prices high.

TCMR: Are you watching any other companies in the HREE space?

JP: Well, we’re focused primarily on the heavies, so we do cover Quest and Avalon and like the heavy nature of their deposits. Another interesting one that pops to mind that we don’t cover is Tasman Metals Ltd. (TSX.V:TSM; OTCPK:TASXF; Fkft:T61); it’s in Sweden. Its advantage over others has been its good geography, relatively low costs and the fact that you can actually drive there in a regular car. Avalon and Quest are fairly remote, in terms of getting in their supplies and people to mine their deposits, and both have fairly high capital costs—in the $500 million to $1 billion range. Quest has a great open-pit deposit, so it will be fairly low-cost once it gets to production.

TCMR: But you say the company won’t be producing until 2015–2016?

JP: That’s right. Avalon is about a year ahead of Quest, in terms of getting to production.

TCMR: Back in April, you had a speculative buy on Quest with a one-year price target of $10.80. Is that still what you’re targeting?

JP: That’s still what we’re looking at, even though there’s been a bit of a selloff. It’s not surprising; it’s just the way the markets have been selling off. So, yes, our targets are still current on Quest, and we continue liking it. We maintain our target on Avalon, too—at $8.70.

TCMR: Any other rare earth plays on your radar?

JP: Hudson Resources Inc. (TSX.V:HUD) has a deposit in Greenland that looks pretty interesting. It’s high in neodymium, which is going to be an in-demand element for a long time because it’s used to make the permanent magnets.

TCMR: One of the trends in the rare earth sector is the idea of vertical supply chains. What role will vertical supply chain integration play in creating strategic advantages for some of these companies?

JP: Well, some of them, including Molycorp and Great Western Minerals Group Ltd. (TSX.V:GWG; OTCQX:GWMGF), are moving from mining the minerals right through to manufacturing the magnets or developing the operations to produce them. I’m not a huge fan of a company buying its customers out in order to supply itself. I find it very rare for that to work in any industry.

My preferred way to go with vertical integration would involve strategic partnerships between the customers and the producers, or equity stakes. The companies doing this are going back in the supply chain and securing a supply, and this makes a lot more sense to me. It’s probably a better way to do it, in my view, than becoming your supplier or buying your supplier. I can’t find another industry where this actually makes sense and works well.

Once companies specialize in a certain segment, I don’t like them generally moving out of that segment into new areas just to capture a little bit more margin, which is what’s taking place here. The margin in the manufacturing of the magnet is in the 20%–30% range.

TCMR: And what about integrating the processing or milling into the mining company?

JP: Right now, it would be a strategic advantage to have a separation facility attached to a mine, and a few companies are looking at that. Avalon has scoped it out and is working on a plan to get there, but it’s a very expensive proposition and the knowledge isn’t necessarily readily available in the Western world. Still, to be the first mover on getting a separation facility would probably be a good idea for Avalon and any other company that’s looking to get into that market. In the short term, it’s advantageous to get those facilities online because the companies don’t want to ship the concentrates back into China for separation.

Once the separation facilities exist in the Western world, though, other companies—including smaller ones that will just mine and produce a concentrate—should be able to avoid that very large capital investment. They shouldn’t have a problem either sending or selling the concentrate to other companies for processing.

TCMR: How important is processing in the value equation? How much more could a company make on processing its own concentrates?

JP: The way it works now, the rare earth companies that don’t have these facilities—which now are available only in China—produce concentrates of all of their rare earths sort of mixed together. They then sell that to a facility that can separate it off into the individual oxides and maybe further process that, and some of it into metals. The difference between the concentrate sale price and a separated sale price is about 30%–40%. In other words, a company could realize a 30%–40% higher margin by separating it itself.

TCMR: That’s significant.

JP: It is but the cost of building and running a separation facility is also significant, so some of the juniors will be better off just producing a concentrate.

TCMR: With production still five years or more off for a lot of these companies, what’s Laurentian Bank Securities’ strategy for evaluating risk and investing in this sector? How do you determine which companies are likely to do well that far out?

JP: We start with the management. We meet with them and determine if they know what they’re doing, what their strategy is and if their plan for five years out makes sense. We also look at whether the elements these companies will potentially be producing will have value in the future.

That’s the juncture at which we split out companies that focus primarily on light rare earths versus the heavies. With Molycorp’s mine coming onstream and producing lights to add to the supply stream within the next year, we expect many of the LREEs to decline in value. We use different long-term price targets on the different elements just to determine where they are and where they’re going to be.

TCMR: What about some of the critical metals beyond rare earths?

JP: Again, our evaluation considers supply and demand and where we think costs will come in. For example, not many folks are looking at producing EMM in the market outside of China, so American Manganese’s deposit and its low-cost power put it in a good position to do well in that market and capture a large part of the market share outside of China.

There’s not a lot of new supply coming online in graphite, and we haven’t found many companies really engaged in working on that yet. It’s not like REEs, where several hundred companies are working on it. However, we’re aware of several smaller deposits, so we should see more plays in this space before too long.

With fluorspar, maybe two or three public companies are focused on it; so, as with graphite, fluorspar isn’t something that’s going to flood the market all of a sudden. There are a few tungsten producers and that market is very small, but I think the right producer with the right grade and right cost structure could do well in that market. And as I said, in our view, tungsten is an undervalued commodity.

TCMR: What tungsten plays do you like?

JP: There’s a combination of exploration companies and producers in the tungsten space. I cover Colt Resources Inc. (TSX.V:GTP; OTCQX:COLTF), which has what looks to be a significant deposit once it proves it out. Among the producers are Malaga Inc. (TSX:MLG) and North American Tungsten Corporation Ltd. (TSX:NTC). Malaga has its Pasto Bueno tungsten mine in Northern Peru, which has been producing for years. It’s a rather small-scale operation right now, but it is in production. North American has been producing for some time, as well.

TCMR: How far away is Colt Resources from proving out?

JP: Well, it’s doing a lot of drilling right now. The deposit is a historic resource of about 1 million tons (Mt.), which is very tiny, but it’s at .87 grade—a relatively high grade. Visiting the site, you can see tungsten outcropping in several areas; so, once the company completes the step-out drilling and gets an NI 43-101 resource estimate, I think it will grow quickly into a deposit of significance.

TCMR: Any last words you’d like to leave our readers with, Jim? What’s the most important thing for them to consider when they’re looking at this space?

JP: I think you have to look at where technologies and consumer trends are going in order to pick these plays. If you’d picked rare earths a year ago, you’d have done really well; but at the time, who realized it would take off the way it did?

We’ve been looking at a bunch of these different sectors that aren’t in vogue right now—not popular. We’ve focused our research on the fundamentals, which include controlled supply, few suppliers outside of China and areas in which we expect to see demand increase over the next five or six years.

TCMR: Thank you very much, Jim. This has been very informative.

Jim Powell, P.Eng. and Certified Financial Analyst (CFA), is a technology and strategic metals analyst with Laurentian Bank Securities.



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Economic Events on June 29, 2011

By B.P.T., on June 29th, 2011

The Mortgage Bankers’ Association purchase index will be released at 7:00 AM EDT, providing an update on the quantity of new mortgages and refinancings closed in the last week.

At 10:00 AM EDT, the value of the pending home sales index for May will be announced.

At 10:30 AM EDT, the weekly Energy Information Administration Petroleum Status Report will be released, giving investors an update on oil inventories in the United States.

At 3:00 PM EDT, the Farm Prices report for May will be released, giving investors and economists an indication of the direction of food prices in the coming months.



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