Charter cities

The idea of charter cities, originally promoted by Stanford economist Paul Romer, sparked a lively academic debate in the field of economic development. The idea of charter city rests on the premise of creating special reform zones within countries. The reform zone would not be governed by the prevailing system of formal and informal rules within countries. The concept of charter city would serve as an intellectual laboratory of ideas in which governments would be let to quickly adopt innovative system of rules. The purpose of charter cities is the empowerment of incentives in world’s less developed countries to develop human capital skills, hence, to increase the level of productivity and real wages that could foster the increase in the standard of living. By and large, the core idea of building a charter city means building a city of about 1000 sq. kilometers in the unoccupied land of the host country and adopting an innovative system of formal and informal rules provided by the source country. The example of charter city include selling Guantanamo to Canada and turning the little piece of Cuban land into Caribbean Hong Kong by adopting a formal system of rules and governance based on limited government, strong rule of law and free market; and turning the new territory into manufacturing hub that could serve as a source of income for workers across Caribbean islands such as Haiti. The charter city would not only provide the opportunity for testing intellectual ideas and innovations but also migrational opportunities for individuals from world’s most impoverished countries such as Haiti. The coordination of the charter city is managed by a triangle. First, the host country would provide the piece of land. Second, the source country would provide the infrastructure, human capital and ideas. And third, the guarantor country would provide the assurance that the charter would be respected by both countries.

The concept of the charter city has gained significant attention by development experts in discussing developmental malaise in world’s least developed countries in Africa. The empirical evidence on Africa’s underdevelopment is striking. It suggests a blinking interplay of corruption, institutional fragility and state failure. According to African Development Indicators, about 75 percent of firms in Cote d’Ivoire identify corruption as the major constraint in doing business. In Ethiopia, less than 2 percent of females enroll tertiary education. Moreover, the average Ethiopian female can expect only 7 years of total schooling. In Liberia, about 11 percent of married women partake a contraceptive use by any method. Hence, one third of young Liberian women, aged 15-19. In addition, 60 percent of Liberians live below $2 per day. In Mozambique and Sierra Leone, only 45 percent of young women are literate. A female at birth in Sub-Saharan Africa can expect to experience no more than 8 years of total schooling throughout her life.

The perennial question in the establishment of charter cities is whether the idea can serve as a source of good rules, promoting good governance through low-cost contract enforcement. Institutional fragility of states across world’s least developed countries is largely the economic outcome stemming from wrong development diagnostics, mismatched policy choices and a rigid structure of formal and informal institutional arrangements which resulted in a myriad of bad rules and corrupt political leadership across the specturm of world’s poorest countries. The general conclusion from the lessons of development policy is that in the last century, development policy failed to facilitate meaningful prescriptions for a permanent rise of GDP per capita. In particular, the misdiagnosis of essential development dilemma is not a consequence of technical failure in delivering concrete solutions to applied issues of economic development but a consequence of mismatched theoretical foundations which supplied wrong assumptions. Theoretical models of economic growth and development in late 1950s and early 1960s rested on the assumption on output per worker as an increasing and diminishing function of the capital per worker. Although the validity of the neoclassical growth theory remains undisputed, development policy and international aid donors failed to recognize that increasing the amount of aid does not lead to better development outcomes. In fact, the majority of Sub-Saharan countries experienced the relative decline of GDP per capita in the 20th century. In 1913, the GDP per capita of Ghana (in 1990 international dollars) represented 42 percent of the average GDP per capita of European periphery. In 2008, Ghana’s GDP per capita represented merely 8 percent of the average GDP per capita of European periphery. By the available statistics, Algeria was the second wealthiest country in Africa, only after South Africa. In 1913, Ghana was the fourth richest society in Africa, only after South Africa, Algeria and Egypt. In 2008, Ghana’s GDP per capita was ranked 20th in Africa, in the same range as Angola, Lesotho and Nigeria.

The question surrounding the emergence of the charter city is whether it can serve as a treatment to the contagious sclerosis of fragile institutional structure in failed states, marred by poor governance and the lack of law and order, causing the failure to enforce private contracts as to ensure the rule of law and provide the institutional impetus for sound governance and better formal and informal rules. A notable criticism of the institutional fragility in world’s less developed countries pertains to the capture of the state by the political elites. The political elites in world’s poorest regions have provided sufficient conditions for the capture of government and judicial system by incorporating a system of powerful informal arrangements through bloated corruption which consequently impaired investment and ultimately resulted in the expropriation of private property rights. The institutional chaos in the most failed states of the world culminated into behavioral adaption to bad rules. The sequence of harmful economic policies eventually seized upon poor development outcomes such as high rates of poverty, stagnating income per capita, low life expectancy and poor health and education indicators.

The foremost task of the charter city should facilitate the institutional decency to enforce private contracts without transaction cost barriers and ensure a robust system of the rule of law since better rules nonetheless depend on how informal institutions such as culture, habits and behavior embrace the virtues of free markets, limited government and the rule of law. Aside from the essential infrastructural arrangements, the provision of institutional conditions for living under a different set of rules does not necessarily imply sufficient prerequisites for the productivity growth that could, in the long run, transform the charter city from low-wage pool of unskilled labor into high-wage urban agglomeration. What is needed for a charter city to flourish is the acceptance of informal institutions of the liberal society such as the freedom of contract and the freedom from corruption. One should not hesitate that economic and personal liberties in world’s poorest countries are plagued by predatory rent-seeking political behavior as well as contended against the principles of adherence to formal rules. Without a sensory adherence to these principles, it would be impossible to envisage the charter city as a solution to world poverty and underdevelopment.

For a charter city to provide a clear and cohesive framework of rules, it is essential to provide the credibility and predictability of rules. In early 1950s, Hong Kong was a small island chartered by the British who established a system of credibility over centuries. Hong Kong was the only place where Chinese workers were allowed to migrate from the mainland China. The credibility of the rules, emphasizing limited government over extensive government intervention, free markets over regulated command-and-control economy and the rule of law over political discretion and interest-group politics, proved vital in Hong Kong’s steady economic growth in the 20th century. In 1950, Hong Kong’s income per capita was around GBP 2,500. By 1997, the average income per capita rose to GBP 20,000.

The idea of building charter cities to boost income per capita by innovative framework of governance is a valuable alternative to the mainstream development policy. First, setting a charter city in regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America would encourage seasonal and permanent migration flows from areas with low population density both on domestic and international scale. David McKenzie and John Gibson examined the impact of New Zealand’s Recognized Seasonal Employer program (link), aimed at encouraging seasonal migration from Pacific islands Tonga and Vanuatu to New Zealand, benefitting employers at home. The empirical evidence and policy conclusions suggest that seasonal migration is offering a triple win since a migrant, the sending country and the receiving country benefit from participating in seasonal migration program:

Nevertheless, there are several caveats to these conclusions. The first is that development is a long-term process, and some of the effects of the RSE may only materialize over many years of community involvement. These could include positive effects such as greater asset-building, investments and skill development if workers return for many seasons, as well as potential longer-term negative effects of continual absence of family members on family and community relations. Secondly, while the gains to households from this seasonal migration are large, they still pale in comparison to the gains from permanent international migration (McKenzie et al, 2010). A key policy issue is therefore the extent to which seasonal migration can or cannot eventually open up avenues for permanent migration. Finally, as with all evaluations, there is the question of how far the policy details and findings can be extrapolated to other settings and that it was developed drawing on lessons from experiences around the world should provide some external validity. As temporary migration programs are increasingly emphasized in policy discussions, there is likely to be plenty of scope for governments and researchers to work together in the future in assessing how well these lessons translate.

Second, charter cities would nevertheless spur the diffusion of knowledge into the countries of poor regions in the world. In its most distinctive form, charter cities would be similar to the role of small states in the global economy. For instance, consider Mauritius. Back in 1968, when the island gained the political independence from the United Kingdom, the economic prospects of the country were undermined by rapid population growth, rachitic productivity and overdependence on sugar as the only export industry. In addition, trade policy imposed high tariffs and import quotas to protect sugar manufacturers. Since it was impossible to dismantle the barriers to trade, the government of Mauritius responded by creating a virtual special export zone. Any foreign and domestic company could enter and exit the export zone by retaining the profits earned. Companies within the export zone operated under different rules with no trade restrictions such as tariffs, import quotas, voluntary export restraints etc. Hence, the only entry requirement for locating in the special zone was that companies manufacture only for exports as not to compete with domestic markets. The special export zone proved to be a success story. Productivity and employment rates increased sharply, boosting income per capita and standard of living. In 2010, Mauritius’s GDP per capita ($15,500) is the second highest in the region, only behind Gabon ($14,600). The experience of Mauritius with the special export zone and its consequent impact on the economic prosperity of the island, suggests that institutional competition ultimately rewards the institutional structure with better economic outcomes. The entire concept of the charter city is based on encouraging the institutional competition between charter cities and politico-economic systems in poorer countries where charter cities would be most likely to settle. Low initial level of income per capita in charter cities would encourage low-wage employment with unskilled labor. The experience of countries such as Mauritius, Singapore and Hong Kong suggests that favorable institutional features at the beginning stage of development result in better economic policies, ultimately leading to stable economic growth, higher standard of living and better education and health indicators. In Mauritius, the judicial independence from political influence has been enhanced by delegating the highest court of appeal to the British Privy Council, a royal judicial committee (link), full powers of judicial authority.

Many smaller countries in the 20th century, known for good development outcomes, have adopted roughly similar institutional impetus for economic growth and development. In Africa, countries with the highest level of economic freedom and the lowest perception of corruption, such as Mauritius, Botswana and Namibia, enjoy the highest level of GDP per capita in the African continent. In spite of the abundance of natural resources, Botswana adopted market-friendly economic policies in the second half of the 20th century, conducive to private enterprise and investment. According to World Bank, it takes 152 hours to pay taxes in Botswana compared to Sub-Saharan average of 315 days. In addition, a claimant in Botswana can expect to recover 63.7 cents per $1 from an insolvent firm compared to 8.4 cents per 1$ in Angola, 16 cents per 1$ in Niger and 0 cents per 1$ in Madagascar.

And third, charter cities would vastly improve the infrastructure of the residents, choosing freely to enter and exit the city. Households in countries such as Guinea still lack the access to electricity, forcing students to do the homework under streetlights and use the car park lights to review school notes (link). Despite being one of the largest receivers of aid per capita, Guinea still suffers from the lack of widespread access to electricity. One could hardly believe that the efforts pledged by international aid donors to reduce poverty and improve the standard of living across the African continent, were not sufficient. What created the black hole, such as the above in Guinea, is the institutional structure plagued by persistent corruption, political cronyism and bad governance, creating bad rules and wrong incentives. Charter cities would ingeniously cure the widespread persistence of misrule and political misconduct since the system of rules would be defined by the founding charter of the city. Good prospects of charter cities would require free entry and exit from the city as well as transparent and honest oversight of the respect for rules by independent judicial authority, managed by a guarantor country such as the United Kingdom, U.S. or Canada. In the proposed form, a typical charter city would become a manufacturing hub. In particular, it would enable access to low labor costs and significant economies of scale to technology entrepreneurs from rich countries as well as transparent contract enforcement, law and order and the security of private property rights. On the other hand, cities would enable millions of people from poor countries to migrate to chartered cities and seek employment opportunities in an environment, safe from corruption, political restraint, violence and bad governance. Hence, charter cities would provide a necessary input to the intellectual competition of ideas in economics, law and political philosophy and elsewhere to be implemented in chartered cities.

The concept enables social scientists and development experts a real-world experiment of ideas. Hence, charter cities could provide a safe haven for prosecuted individuals in poor countries, suffering from judicial errors, physical and military violence or illicit property expropriation. The UN estimates that, over the next few decades, 3 billion people will move to cities. The inflow exerts a growing pressure on urban agglomerations. The lack of basic infrastructure and the continuity of predatory misrule could cause a rapid growth of slums in larger cities which, by and large, are the main source of infectious diseases, HIV prevalence and youth crime since the absence of access to clean water, electricity and education are the major impediment to the improvement of development outcomes in poor countries. A charter city could flourish to become an impulsive alternative to the current state of overdependence on foreign aid. However, it should be unambiguously clear that adherence to good rules and governance requires a bold and decisive change in the set of informal behavior; in which corruption, crime and nepotism are doomed to the fullest possible extent by the full enforcement of private contracts and the rule of law.

Bob Casaceli: Cordillera del Condor

The Cordillera del Condor region, located on the contentious Ecuador-Peru border, has proven to be rife with precious metals and political risk. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Geologist Bob Casaceli delves deep beneath the earth’s crust to explain why this dynamic region’s formation points to further discoveries in the area.

The Gold Report: Bob, it seems like everyone knows you. How did you get your start in this business?

Bob Casaceli: I first became interested in geology through mountain climbing, which was an offshoot of my ski-racing career at the University of Colorado. My ski teammates would take me to areas to learn technical rock climbing, and I would study the geology of those areas.

I was always intrigued by the Andes. In graduate school, I was very interested in the mineralogy, tectonic origins and lithochemistry of the ore deposits. I studied isotope geochemistry as a methodology of determining the origin of ore deposits and was able to get some consulting work in Mexico, Central America and throughout the Andean region. I worked with some partners who were former colleagues at the Anaconda Copper Company and formed a consulting company called Annapurna Exploration. It was a great springboard to understanding the systems of gold, copper and silver mineralization in the Andes.

TGR: Didn’t you later do some geology work with royalty company Franco-Nevada Corp. (TSX:FNV)?

BC: In the 1990s, I was president and chief operating officer of L.A. Nevada, which was the Latin American subsidiary of Franco’s sister company, Euro-Nevada Mining Corp., which is a subsidiary of Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE:NEM). My job was to look for royalty opportunities throughout Latin America. I covered the ground quite thoroughly then and worked in every Latin American country. Later, beginning in 2008, I worked with the new Franco-Nevada U.S. Corporation as its chief geologist.

TGR: Did you ever visit Aurelian Resources Inc.’s (TSX:ARU) Fruta del Norte deposit in Ecuador?

BC: I crossed over what’s now part of the property when I was working in the area with my consulting company. We were working in the Nambija and Chinapintza Districts and covered that area when it was even more remote than it is now. I haven’t seen it since the recent development.

TGR: It’s been about two-and-a-half years since Kinross Gold Corp. (TSX:K; NYSE:KGC) paid roughly $1 billion for Aurelian and the Fruta del Norte gold deposit. Could you tell our readers about the region and why it’s highly prospective for high-grade gold deposits?

BC: The primary reason is that it sits atop the main subduction zone of the Andes. A subduction zone is where the oceanic plates from the eastern Pacific Plate are pushed underneath the South American continent and melted. Magmas are generated, which rise and melt the lower crust.

Based on the work I did with isotope geochemistry in graduate school, it appears that the majority of the metals in the melts actually come from the lower crust with a lesser contribution from the mantle. They’re incorporated by the magmas rising above the subduction zone and spending what’s called “residence time” to allow for more melting of the lower crust and further incorporation of the metals that are contained therein. The magmas come up to the surface through fractures in the upper crust and are expressed as volcanoes. They formed a range along the continental margin in the Late Jurassic period about 150 million years ago in the area of Fruta del Norte. The continental margin was evolving from what’s called an “island arc,” where volcanoes are separated into distinct islands and later compressed to form the continental mass we see now—the high Andes, lower coastal ranges and the coast itself.

The magmas, or molten rocks, form the volcanoes—usually stratovolcanoes—for the most part, which are the tall, cone-shaped volcanoes. Subsequent to the formation of the stratovolcanoes, there is time for gases and waters to mix with metals, which partition off into a fluid phase. That fluid phase is the source of the metal deposits. A subduction zone that’s active for many millions of years has a lot of time to generate metal-rich hydrothermal deposits. They deposit upon and enrich each other. That’s the main reason there are many deposits along the South American Cordillera mountain ranges.

There are cross-structures that create open spaces and better intersections that are more permeable. There is oblique subduction, which occurs when a subduction slab doesn’t meet the continental margin at 90 degrees, but rather meets it at an angle and creates what’s called “strike-slip faulting” as a result. That strike-slip faulting causes the rocks to move horizontally past each other and jump in their movement. When they jump, they create these small areas of extension within the jump—or jog—and that creates the open space. Any time there’s open space created above a magmatic source, such as a subduction zone, it facilitates the creation of ore deposits at the surface along the open spaces.

TGR: The biggest gold deposit found to date in that area is Fruta del Norte, which is close to 14 million ounces (Moz.) of high-grade gold. That was the biggest story in the mining industry for years. Something like that would usually spawn a staking rush, but that didn’t happen. Why?

BC: Political reasons, but that’s my bias. The president of Ecuador, Rafael Correa Delgado, has said he is dedicated to nationalizing certain industries, including the mining industry. The reality is that Correa is of the political persuasion that minerals are a part of the realm of the state, but more than just simply through royalty ownership or payments. He has made statements that he would consider nationalizing oil, gas and mining. That definitely put fear into exploration companies and kept many out.

TGR: What role do the indigenous tribes play in keeping development at bay?

BC: Aboriginal people are concerned about the exploitation of their ancestral lands. That’s certainly true in the Amazonas region of northern and northeastern Peru, which borders Fruta del Norte. This movement has been exacerbated by support from Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and his supporters. I believe that it’s become a more difficult situation because of Hugo Chavez’s financial support, but I have no direct evidence of that—I’ve only heard rumors. The movement has received other support; for example, a leader of the aboriginal movement in Peru was given protection in an embassy in Nicaragua to avoid his capture.

TGR: It’s taken a little while, but some companies are coming to the Fruta del Norte area and exploring again, especially on the Peruvian side of the border with Ecuador. Could you tell us about some of those companies and what they’re doing?

BC: The largest, most obvious one is Newmont Mining Corp., which has been active in that area. However, I believe the company that’s had the best success is Dorato Resources Inc. (TSX.V:DRI; Fkft:DO5). It owns options on claims that are directly on the border, about 25 kilometers to the south of Fruta del Norte and directly across from Chinapintza and Santa Barbara, which are known areas of excellent gold mineralization.

TGR: Dorato has a few targets it’s working on. One of the more promising ones is the Lucero target, where some drilling intersected copper/gold mineralization, including roughly 30 meters averaging 2.85 grams per ton (g/t) gold and 0.37% copper. Could that be a copper-gold porphyry deposit?

BC: I think it is; it has all the earmarks of a copper-gold porphyry deposit from the chemistry that’s exhibited by the mineralogy and alteration at the surface and in the drill holes.

TGR: Those types of deposits are favorable because they could be of interest to major gold and copper producers. Given the political issues in the area, this would have to be a substantial target in order for companies to be willing to get it off the ground.

BC: True, but Dorato’s properties are on the Peruvian side of the border. It’s right on the border, but it’s still Peru. I’ve worked there for many years and have a high regard for the Peruvian people and their support of mining. It is a mining-mentality nation, though there have been some inconsistencies over the years. Recently, legislation was proposed to double the royalties from a 1%–3% range to a 2%–6% range, as well as to put up to a 10% gross sales revenue royalty on gold and 5% on copper.

Nevertheless, Peru is firmly a mining country. I’ve seen many properties develop there. Newmont has made great profits on its mining efforts in northern Peru. The country is a more secure investment than Ecuador. I’m very skeptical of Correa’s administration.

There are, however, other discoveries on the Ecuadorian side, such as the former Corriente Resources Inc.’s Mirador copper-gold porphyry deposit [now owned by Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Holdings Co. Ltd. (SZSE:000630)] and Dynasty Metals & Mining Inc.’s (TSX:DMM) Jerusalem deposit.

TGR: Do you think Dorato’s Lucero target has the potential to reach the size of Exeter Resource Corp.’s (TSX:XRC; NYSE.A:XRA; Fkft:EXB) Caspiche copper-gold porphyry project in Chile?

BC: Caspiche is a very special area. I had the opportunity to work on the property in the very early days—well before Exeter got there. I’ve followed the work that Yale Simpson has done as executive chairman of Exeter. The company has done a great job. That’s a huge system in a belt of other very large systems. Lucero is the same type of deposit, but I don’t see anything yet that clearly makes Lucero the magnitude of Caspiche. Nevertheless, I have little doubt in my mind that it will be a mine. I don’t know yet if it has the potential to be the size of Caspiche, because that would be tens of millions of ounces of gold.

TGR: You did some due diligence on these projects on behalf of Franco-Nevada, which now has a royalty on the property that’s being optioned by Dorato. How long ago was that and what exactly did you do?

BC: The first deal was a private placement investment in 2008 with an option to purchase a royalty in the future, which hasn’t yet been exercised. In 2009, a second private placement investment expanded the area over which Franco-Nevada’s royalty option would apply. I worked on the second royalty option deal.

TGR: Was Franco-Nevada more interested in Taricori, Lucero or both?

BC: It was initially interested in Taricori because the hope was that it would fit a Fruta del Norte model. It doesn’t, exactly. Fruta del Norte is an intermediate-sulfidation epithermal deposit of Late Jurassic age and Taricori is considerably younger and formed in a sub-epithermal environment.

TGR: It’s in the pull apart basin, correct?

BC: Yes, but the pull apart basin is a complex basin. I believe it was originally part of a back-arc continental rift or extension zone graben formed by upwelled magma. The oblique nature of the subduction slab to the coast created left-lateral strike-slip movement on the north-south structures, which I believe were originally extensional structures that formed from magmas that created the core of the Andes. Pre-existing northwest-southeast crosscutting structures then were pulled apart by the strike-slip movement. It’s a complex mechanism to create open space, but that’s one of the critical things necessary for developing these ore deposits. It’s what created Fruta del Norte.

Lucero, Taricori and Cobrecon, another Dorato property, are on the same regional feature. In Fruta del Norte’s case, it happened in the Late Jurassic. However, in the case of the Dorato properties, it appears that the mineralization is of Late Cretaceous or Tertiary age, possibly some 40–65 million years old. It’s also not truly epithermal, as it is formed at deeper sub-epithermal zones with somewhat higher temperatures in the mesothermal range, more like a porphyry-type system.

It’s still unclear whether these are going to be as big as some of the porphyry gold deposits in Chile, but the Dorato properties still host sizeable deposits that will likely prove very valuable. The grades are excellent, there’s a bit more sulfides, copper and molybdenum involved than in the system in Fruta del Norte, but gold is there, as well.

TGR: What’s the next step for Dorato?

BC: The company has a lot of work ahead developing these large porphyry-style systems and precious metal-zoned deposits. Dorato has discovered three excellent centers of mineralization. There are also other geophysical anomalies that remain to be tested. The company should get some excellent hits in the lower part of the true porphyry system, which is most likely centered beneath Lucero. It has a lot of drilling left to do and a lot of groundwork, but there is a lot of encouragement.

TGR: Do you foresee Ecuador becoming more mining-friendly in the future?

BC: It can and likely will. There are political cycles. Ecuador is endowed with a lot of mineral wealth. It’s a marvelous place to explore and develop mines under the right political circumstances. Eventually, such circumstances will come about. Rafael Correa is no idiot. He allowed the government to give enough assurance to Kinross to make purchases and develop mines. He will allow certain levels of development.

However, the real development of Ecuador and the ultimate realization of its mineral wealth will only come under a different philosophy, one similar to those in Chile and Peru. Companies need encouragement because these are rugged areas—jungle that is difficult to traverse and explore, and there aren’t many roads. Companies need mining laws that will encourage them to take the difficult steps to explore the area. I think that will come, and it will probably be driven by economic necessity.

TGR: Bob, thanks for your in-depth explanations.

Robert J. Casaceli holds a master’s degree in geology from Oregon State University and a bachelor’s in geology from the University of Colorado. His mining career spans 36 years and has involved every facet of mineral exploration for precious metals, base metals and uranium. He is currently president and CEO of Creso Exploration Inc. (TSX.V:CXT; OTCQX:CRXEF). Until recently, he served as chief geologist for Franco-Nevada Corp., the world’s most-respected royalty acquisition company. He has also been president and chief executive of a TSX-listed resource company for more than 12 years and has been involved in the design, funding and implementation of numerous reconnaissance, advanced-stage exploration projects and prospect/mine evaluations in some 50 countries. He was previously president and COO of L.A. Nevada, a subsidiary of Euro-Nevada Mining Corp., for two years. His primary function was the identification and acquisition of royalty interests from mining properties located throughout Latin America and elsewhere in the world. Casaceli has published numerous technical and scientific papers. His technical skills are enhanced by his extensive experience in negotiating mining deals, structuring legal agreements and establishing companies in many countries.

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Economic Events on February 17, 2011

At 8:30 AM EST, the U.S. government will release its weekly Jobless Claims report.  The consensus is that there were 410,000 new jobless claims last week, which would would be 27,000 more than the unexpectedly low number released last week.

Also at 8:30 AM EST, the Consumer Price Index report for January will be released.  The consensus is that CPI increased by 0.3% last month, with a 0.1% increase in CPI when food and energy are removed.

At 10:00 AM EST, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify before Senate Banking Committee on Dodd-Frank reforms, with SEC Chair Mary Schapiro, FDIC Chair Sheila Bair, and CFTC Chair Gary Gensler.

Also at 10:00 AM EST, the Leading Indicators report for January will be released.  The consensus is that this index increased by 0.2% last month, which would be the sixth month of improvement in a row.

Also at 10:00 AM EST, the Philadelphia Fed Survey report for February will be released.  The consensus is that the index will be at 22, which would be an increase of 2.7 points from the previous month.

At 10:30 AM EST, the weekly Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Report will be released, giving an update on natural gas inventories in the United States.

At 4:30 PM EST, the Federal Reserve will release its Money Supply report, showing the amount of liquidity available in the U.S. economy.

Also at 4:30 PM EST, the Federal Reserve will release its Balance Sheet report, showing the amount of liquidity the Fed has injected into the economy by adding or removing reserves.

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