Chicago PMI Up, Consumer Confidence Jumps, Retail Spikes

By Eldon Mast, on December 1st, 2010

On Tuesday, Chicago manufacturing reports and Consumer Confidence led the good news of the day.

Chicagoland continues to report accelerating month-to-month growth in their manufacturing sector. New orders rose in November vs October to extend what is now extremely strong order growth trending. Production is now cranking and like other regions is raising the demand for manufacturing employment which was reported strong in November as well as October. The healthy production is also holding down and unfilled orders, which now reflect a contracting rate.

The Chicago report covers both non-manufacturing and manufacturing and indicates that we will continue to see strength in the nationwide purchasing reports for November also to be released this week.

Consumer confidence improved in November at a rate better than any economist had projected this month. The Conference Board’s reading jumped more than four points to 54.1 fueled by gains in their “expectations component.” That measurement points to overall improvement in future months.

Retail sales also moved higher in the November 27 week according to ICSC-Goldman’s index released on Tuesday. The improvement now registers a year-on-year rate of plus 3.5 percent. For November as a whole, ICSC-Goldman has measured a three to four percent year-year gain.

Redbook reported a spike higher in same-store retail sales during the week just past. Its reading at a plus 4.9 percent on-year rate is now the strongest retail growth rate of the whole recovery.

All of these reports underscore a solid recovery that is on track and jobs growth (particularly in manufacturing) that continues to increase.



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Economic Events on December 1, 2010

By B.P.T., on December 1st, 2010

The figures for motor vehicle sales in November will be released today.  The consensus estimate is that 8.9 million autos were sold last month, which would be an increase of 100,000 from October.

The Mortgage Bankers’ Association purchase index was released at 7:00 AM EST, and there was a week to week increase of 1.1% in the Purchase Index and a week to week decrease of 21.6% in the Refinance Index as interest rates moved up from near record lows.

The Challenger Job-Cut Report was released at 7:30 AM EST, and it showed that there were 48,711 layoffs in November, which is about 11,000 more than the number of layoffs that were reported in October.

At 8:15 AM EST, the ADP Employment Report will be released.  Investors will be watching this number to get advance notice on the state of the job market in advance of the government’s report on Friday.

At 8:30 AM EST, the Productivity and Costs report for the third quarter of 2010 will be released.  The consensus is that non-farm productivity increased by 2.4% in the last quarter and labor unit costs did not change.

At 10:00 AM EST, the Construction Spending report for October will be released, and the consensus is that there will a decline of 0.4% in spending compared to the previous month.

Also at 10:00 AM EST, the ISM manufacturing index for November will be released.  The consensus estimate is that it increased 0.1 points last month to a value of 57.0, and will continue to signal economic growth as it remains above the mid-point of 50.

At 10:30 AM EST, the weekly Energy Information Administration Petroleum Status Report will be released, giving investors an update on oil inventories in the United States.

At 2:00 PM EST, the Beige Book report will be released, giving us more information about economic conditions in each Federal Reserve district in advance of the next Fed meeting.

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