Nollywood: Is Better Distribution the Remedy for Piracy?

While my colleagues at Berkman are very good about scheduling many of the Center’s most exciting events on Tuesdays – the day I leave western MA for the wonders of Cambridge – there are lots of events too good to miss the other six days of the week that I attend virtually. In Berkman parlance, we refer to people who call into meeting as being “in the ceiling”, which reflects both where the speakers are for our conference call setup in our conference room, and makes vague allusions to the Ceiling Cat phenomenon, as an overamplified remote participant can sound like the voice of God.

I was “in the ceiling” for a lunch conversation at Berkman this past Friday about the future of the Nigerian film industry. This means that, while I know the conversation included luminaries like Ronaldo Lemos of the Center for Technology and Society at FGV Law School in Rio, business strategist Dayo Ogunyemi, filmmaker Robb Moss, film critic Shaibu Husseini, World Bank economic expert Chioma Nwagboso and Berkman’s own Yochai Benkler, I basically have no idea who said what. So rather than giving my usual blow by blow, I’ll offer my takeaways from the conversation.

Colin Maclay (who hosted this conversation), Mike Best and I met with a number of Nollywood luminaries in Lagos a few months back and got an introduction to the concerns and anxieties of the world’s second largest film industry (in terms of films produced annually, not in revenue terms.) On that trip, we learned that Nollywood’s financial structure is utterly different from that of India’s film industry. Nigerian films make virtually all their money from single-copy sales, rather than from licensing, foreign rights or theatrical screening. As a result, piracy can have a much sharper impact than in other markets. In India, some scholars refer to piracy as “a marketing expense”, as the sale of pirated films may encourage other viewers to go see the films in theatres. It’s harder to make this case in Nigeria, where over 90% of revenue comes from the actual sale of DVDs and VCDs and there’s virtually no revenue from screenings.

In our discussions at Berkman, a core idea emerged – piracy is a response to poor distribution networks. One of our participants explained that capital is so scarce within the Nigerian film industry that distributors usually produce 50,000 copies of a film in a first run – all they can afford – and hope to issue a second run using revenues from the first run. But the audience for Nollywood films is massive: one participant tells us that the least successful films sell 30,000 copies. So when a film is a hit, it’s quickly pirated. The pirate copies aren’t necessarily cheaper than the legitimate copies – often, they sell at a similar price and they’re chosen simply because they are the only copies available.

Filmmakers know they’re going to need to recover costs by selling the first 50,000 copies. As a result, some are releasing their films in two, three or four parts, hoping to sell an initial 50,000 copies of each. A few days after the film has been released, the film is likely to start appearing either as a pirated copy, or as part of a compilation. Compilations, one of our participants told us, are generally produced in China and can include up to 100 low-quality films on a DVD.

For whatever underlying reasons, the Yoruba-language film world – where the average film sells 50-100,000 copies – seems to have better distribution systems. Original films are produced in larger runs and often meet market demand before unauthorized copies enter the market. This may be a function of the fact that the Yoruba-language film industry preceded the English/pidgin market and has had more time to work through financing and distribution issues.

Filmmakers continue to look for a technical fix to their problems – there’s some enthusiasm for a copy protection solution from an Indian company (possibly Aft-India), though skepticism that any scheme can remain unbroken for long. (“The Figurine“, an extremely high-quality and much discussed film, hasn’t yet been released on DVD – one of our participants tells us the film will be copy protected before release.)

The real answer may be improving film financing, so that filmmakers are able to raise money by selling equity in their films, enabling them to invest in larger distribution runs. Financing might also help filmmakers pay the fees to the censorship board, which reviews all films before release. (Ghana, by contrast, has had very little film censorship. Perhaps in response to this, Ghanaian films have been pushing the boundaries, showing nudity, sexual situations and producing some films that are probably best characterized as soft porn. Ghana’s ministry of information has announced a new censorship board – it will be interesting to see whether this board quashes this new trend in Gollywood cinema.)

While people in our group expressed concern about distribution, no one seems especially worried about Nigeria’s ability to churn out appealing and crowd-pleasing films, and for those films to compete with Hollywood. One of our discussants noted that the James Bond film Quantum of Solace grossed $280,000 in theatrical release in Nigeria, and that many top Nigerian films gross above $200,000. Those numbers sound small, but they reflect the fact that there are five official cinemas in a country of over 130 million people. If Nigeria had the cinema infrastructure of a country like India, some speculate, we’d see a shift in the economics of Nollywood. We might see the emergence of a model like that used for music in Jamaica, where musicians are shifting from trying to sell records to trying to sell concert tickets. Films like The Figurine launch with “yellow carpet” premieres and expensive ticket prices – those who attend on opening night are paying a premium for the experience and the exclusivity.

Not all these big-budget films are artistic successes. “Kajola” was billed as Nollywood’s first great sci-fi flick. It had a production budget nearing a million dollars – huge by Nollywood standards, where “big films” are usually made for less than $100,000. Set in a totalitarian future Nigeria of 2059, the film uses a combination of live action and computer graphics… and turns out something that looks a lot like a bad video game. (The reviews I’ve read inevitably conclude with the reviewer walking out of the film.)

On the other hand, films that are predictable and fairly low-tech are sometimes going viral. Yoruba comedy Jenifa tells the story of a country girl come to Lagos to go to college… and laughed at for her backwards ways. So she recreates herself as a new woman, “Jenifa”, and shows up her mates up. One of our panelists suggested that this film was the first in Nigeria to be promoted successfully online, where stills, quotes and reviews circulated widely amongst the ~ 2 million Nigerian Facebook users. (You can watch Jenifa on YouTube, though it’s an unauthorized copy. It’s subtitled, which is good for us non-Yoruba speakers out there. This points to a long-term challenge for the industry – filmmakers would like to make money from audiences in the diaspora, which is hard to do, as many movies get chopped into ten minute chunks and posted on YouTube. This tends not to affect the domestic market, because connectivity in Nigeria is so expensive, it would be insane to try to watch this film online in West Africa rather than buying a legit or pirated copy.)

The best market for Nigerian culture may be outside Nigeria, the problems of YouTube distribution aside. One discussant tells us about Nigerian hiphop group P-Square recently sold several million copies of their latest album. A distributor purchased and sent six million copies to the East African market. Not only has the record succeeded, it has allowed the group to demand $100,000 – $150,000 for live performances. Perhaps, some of our group speculated, this is the future for Nigerian cinema – live screenings of new films across the continent and film stars demanding appearance fees similar to those of hiphop stars.

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Economic Events on November 5, 2010

At 8:30 AM EDT the Employment Situation report for October will be announced, and the consensus for non-farm payrolls is an increase of 60,000 jobs compared to a loss of 95,000 in September, the consensus for the unemployment rate is that it will remain at 9.6%, the consensus average hourly earnings rate is expected to increase 0.2%, and the consensus for the average workweek is 34.2 hours.

At 10:00 AM EDT,the value of the pending home sales index for September will be announced.

At 2:00 PM EDT, Ben Bernanke will speak to college students at Jacksonville University.

At 3:00 PM EDT, the Consumer Credit report for September will be released.  The consensus estimate is that there will be an decrease of $3 billion in the consumer credit available from August to September, which would be the eighth month of declines in a row.

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To Parse the Imparseable Dream

Well… way up on the Ambien scale is the latest actuarial report on the City of Pittsburgh pension system.
Here is the much anticipated: Special Study on the Pennsylvania Municipal Retirement System’s Integration of Administrative Services. Such a boring piece of ephemera you would think. Never has so much rested on what so few can make sense of.   I will get around to adding it to  my policy documents page and also the iPension page for posterity’s sake if you ever need to find it in the future.

You really need to wade through a lot to get to the points that are buried in all of that. What are the crib notes?   I distill the whole thing down to two factoids.   One is that there is a scenario in there,  the likely scenario I think, that there will be a point in just a few years that the city’s minimum municipal obligation will rise from $38 million annually presently, to $127 million in 2017 and even rising to $159 million annually in 2030.

As incomprehensible as those numbers are, it gets worse.  There is a scenario, again the most likely scenario I think, that says this:

….the Systems will be in a high risk period for the potential of running out of money because of funding relief and delay in MMO application. (see bottom of page 15 per the page numbering, or page 19 per the PDF numbering)

What?  Huh?   Who said that?

Remember, it is irresponsible to cry fire in a crowded room.

and apologies to Mitch Leigh… and I suppose Jim Nabors.

How To Attack The Fiat Currency Fractional Reserve Banking Conspiracy

Usually when conspiracy and money are mentioned in the same sentence most people’s brains automatically shut off at the thought of talking repitles or cloaked figures in dark rooms. While I do not discount talking reptiles, haven’t you seen Gieco’s talking gecko on television, but this broad, deep and complicated article is for those whose brains have not been devoured or turned to mush by conspiring reptiles and will objectively address the fiat legal tender currency and fractional reserve banking conspiracy.

But this conspiracy is far worse than cloaked figures in dark rooms because this is a conspiracy of economics. But what is exciting is that some of the fundamental tectonic plates of economics have begun shifting and what has appeared to the perceptive is actionable, peaceful and extermely effective strategies to harness the ecnomics in favor of the average person’s freedom.

He who has the gold makes the rules.

MONEY, ILLUSIONS AND CURRENCY

Currency is usually the most widely used medium of exchange in economic transactions. Currency can be composed of either money, money substitutes or illusions. The only significant element for money is that it must be a tangible asset and throughout history there has been a wide range of substances that functioned as money ranging from seashells to salt and giant stones to the King and Queen of commodities; gold or silver.

Money substitutes are merely certificates for money and a common form were silver or gold certificates that operated as currency in various countries and formed the foundation for terms like Dollar, Franc, Mark, Pound, etc. that have since been redefined as they have become illusions.

Illusions are figments of people’s imagination that, as long as they are accepted, maintain some amount of purchasing power. Illusions are usually represented as ephemeral entries in databases or can take corporeal form as little colored coupons like the Federal Reserve Note Dollar, Euro, Yen, etc. Illusions have no intrinsic value and can become worthless. Their only value is in the mass delusion of people’s imagination that they represent real value.

The main cause of the 2008 financial crisis was the loss of faith in debt denominated in illusions. The real and inevitable financial and economic crisis, which will make 2008 look like a calm Sunday picnic, will be the evaporation of trust in the prima donna fiat legal tender currency illusion and world reserve currency the Federal Reserve Note Dollar, through hyperinflation.

LEGAL TENDER

Fiat currency is a medium of exchange used in commerce that has no intrinsic value but does receive legal privileges. Legal tender laws are used to force one of the exchange partners to accept a payment for debt in a form that is against their will. The market interference acts like a price control and supports the market value for the legal tender.

This is how an intrinsically worthless illusion that is the figment of someone’s imagination gains economic value. Because more people are willing to own these illusions this results in an inflation of the legally privileged currency because it can be produced and held in larger amounts than would otherwise be possible without the price control.

This type of price control has many deleterious effects such as (1) a higher purchasing power for the legally assisted currency, (2) a decline in purchasing power and price of competing currencies because of the lack of demand for cash balances even if they enjoy legal tender status such as the $50 1 ounce American gold eagle, (3) exacerbations of the business cycle due to inaccurate interest rate signals and (4) costly logistical efforts to reduce currency risk by exchanging one medium of exchange for a more reliable substitute.

With these nefarious economic effects it begs the questions: Why are legal-tender laws so frequently undertaken throughout history by monetary organizations? Only two rational answers are possible: (1) ignorant political leadership or (2) brazen villainy.

Many apologists for The State support the first defense. But since political leaders are often surrounded by court economists and enjoy the services of knowledgeable counselors it only makes sense that they are engaged in brazen villainy with the intent to reap personal profits, export the undervalued currency and reduce the real economic effect of contracted debts, a subtle form of sovereign default.

Legal tender laws allow illusions to function as currency which should be valued like the common stock of the governments. The main source of revenue for governments is confiscation through inflation which is a form of taxation without representation. Legal tender laws eliminate all technical obstacles to an infinite debasement of coins or currency. The governments throughout the world are engaged in quantitative easing and are acting like penny-stocks with no sustainable or rational business model so the only way to ensure the next paycheck is through massive dilution.

FRACTIONAL RESERVE BANKING

Fractional reserve banking is the practice of accepting demand deposits, deposits that can be demanded at anytime by the depositor, while at the same time lending a fraction of those deposits where the loan repayment cannot be demanded at anytime. Usually depositors become general unsecured creditors of the bank.

The result is a mismatch of time horizon between the bank’s assets and liabilities which renders the bank de facto insolvent. Because the bank has deliberately and with specific intent engaged in conduct knowing that it cannot meet its outstanding liabilities therefore it has committed fraud by engaging in the practice of a fractional reserve banking conspiracy.

The reserve ratio is the ratio between demands held by the bank divided by total demand deposits. For example, if deposits are $100 and loans are $85 and there is $15 at the bank then the reserve ratio would be 15%. For a bank to not be engaged in fraud it would have a 100% reserve ratio.

This practice of having a reserve ratio less than one also has an inflationary effect because there usually more total demand deposits and loans than underlying currency. In as much as the debt functions as currency, like Auction Rate Securities, Commercial Paper or Money Market Funds, this has an effect of increasing the currency supply. In aggregate, the liquidity pyramid is increased.

THE FIAT LEGAL TENDER CURRENCY FRACTIONAL RESERVE BANKING CONSPIRACY

One likes to think that one man equals one vote. But if that is the case then why do banks receives trillions of dollars in bailouts while millions of people get evicted from their homes on the basis of fraudulent mortgage documents used in sham forclosure proceedings?

Well, as Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google remarked, “Laws are written by the lobbyists.” The lobbyist industry has grown because as a whole it generates a positive return on investment.

Frank Fetter in the 1904 version of The Principles of Economics made two great insights: (1) “The market is a democracy where every penny gives a right to vote.” (page 395) and (2) “So each is measuring the services of all others, and all are valuing each. It is the democracy of valuation.” (410).

When viewing access to lobbyists and political influence through the lens of economics it becomes apparent that the effect of fractional reserve banking conspiracy and legal tender laws has is to create votes out of nothing which dilutes existing voting power.

Thus fraudulent actors engaged in a fractional reserve banking conspiracy are able to use ill acquired gains from criminal activity of the fractional reserve banking conspiracy to fund lobbying efforts that ex post facto legalize their immoral behavior. This vote inflation through merger of bank and state apportions to bankers many more votes than they would otherwise have in a free society or a society where one man equaled one vote.

If bankers were receiving the death penalty instead of bailouts then there would be a quick economic recovery and increased standard of living because moral hazard would be greatly reduced and malinvestments quickly liquidated.

But this insight is not new as both Nicholas Oresme, a 14th century French bishop and Thomas Jefferson warned about this vile activity. Nicholas Oresme wrote in chapter 17 page 28 (page 105 of the PDF) of A Treatise On The Orgin, Nature, Law and Alteration of Money,

The usurer has lent his money to one who takes it of his own free will, and can then enjoy the use of it and relieve his own necessity with it, and what he repays in excess of the principal is determined by free contract between the parties. But a prince, by unnecessary change in the coinage, plainly takes the money of his subjects against their will, because he forbids the older money to pass current, though it is better, and anyone would prefer it to the bad; and then unnecessarily and without any possible advantage to his subjects, he will give them back worse money …. In so farthen as he receives more money than he gives, against and beyond the natural use of money, such gain is equivalent to usury; but is worse than usury because it is less voluntary and more against the will of his subjects, incapable of profiting them, and utterly unnecessary. And since the usurer’s interest is not so excessive, or so generally injurious to the many, as this impost, levied tyrannically and fraudulently, against the interest and against the will of the whole community, I doubt whether it should not rather be termed robbery with violence or fraudulent extortion.

As I quote in chapter three of The Great Credit Contraction Thomas Jefferson wrote:

The [Bank of the United States] is one of the most deadly hostility existing against the principles and form of our Constitution. The nation is, at this time, so strong & united in its sentiments that it cannot be shaken at this moment. But suppose a series of untoward events should occur sufficient to bring into doubt the competency of a republican government to meet a crisis of great danger, or to unhinge the confidence of the people in the public functionaries; an institution like this, penetrating by its branches every part of the Union, acting by command and in phalanx may, in a critical moment, upset the government. I deem no government safe which is under the vassalage of any self-constituted authorities, or any other authority than that of the nation or its regular functionaries.

Because of the unfair, immoral and dangerous consequences vote inflation poses to a free society or system of government the Founding Fathers enacted into law restrictions on legal tender such as Article 1 Section 10 of the United States Constitution that reads ‘No State shall … coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts’.

In addition they enacted extremely draconian penalties for engaging in activities like treason or quantitative easing which is the debasement of the currency. For example, Section 19 of the 1792 Coinage Act reads:

SEC. 19. And be it further enacted, That if any of the gold or silver coins which shall be struck or coined at the said mint shall be debased or made worse as to the proportion of fine gold or fine silver therein contained, or shall be of less weight or value than the same ought to be pursuant to the directions of this act, through the default or with the connivance of any of the officers or persons who shall be employed at the said mint, for the purpose of profit or gain, or otherwise with a fraudulent intent, and if any of the said officers or persons shall embezzle any of the metals which shall at any time be committed to their charge for the purpose of being coined, or any of the coins which shall be struck or coined at the said mint, every such officer or person who shall commit any or either of the said offences, shall be deemed guilty of felony, and shall suffer death.

Under Section 3 of the United States Constitution it should be noted that “The Congress shall have power to declare the Punishment of Treason, but no Attainder of Treason shall work Corruption of Blood, or Forfeiture except during the Life of the Person attainted.” This means that should a person be convicted of treason and executed then Congress may confiscate the property of traitors but that property must be inheritable at the death of the person convicted.

Therefore, the Founding Fathers used gold and silver not as mere commodities but as essential checks and balances in the political machinery. Additionally, they felt so strongly that tampering with these essential checks and balances posed such a threat to the peace and safety of society and government that they prescribed capital punishment as a strong deterrent to engage in these morally hazardous activities. Thus we see that if bankers were receiving the death penalty instead of bailouts then there would be a quick economic recovery and increased standard of living because moral hazard would be greatly reduced and malinvestments quickly liquidated.

INDUSTRIAL AGE VERSUS INFORMATION AGE ECONOMICS OF VIOLENCE

During the Industrial Age the return on investment from engaging in violence was extremely high. For example, a factory, mine, railroad or skyscraper required tremendous amounts of capital for their construction and the barrier to exit was extremely high. This allowed governments or labor to organize and extort the holders of capital through strikes, collective bargaining agreements and other coercisive tactics.

Additionally, the barrier to exit geographically was likewise extremely high. How easy is it to move a mine, factory or skyscraper? This allowed governments or labor, which derive jurisdiction based on geography, to extort holders of capital through regulations, taxes and other legal tender laws. After all, politics is force and force is violence.

But in the Information Age the return on investment from engaging in violence is falling tremendously and in most cases going negative. While some economists would attribute the decline in violent crime to the legalization of abortion, implying that low-income crime destined babies are the majority being aborted, instead I would attribute it to the fact that engaging in violent crime profitably is getting increasingly difficult.

One reason is the cost of protection in the Information Age is so much lower. For example, if someone were to rob you how much valuable stuff will they get and what is the probability that they will be caught? Even nefarious criminals, whether strutting around in costumes or not, perform mental calculations of value to determine whether their behavior will be profitable. One example for why robberies have declined is like that so much less cash is carried while credit or debit cards can be quickly canceled leading to lower expected returns from the behavior.

Another example that illustrates the extreme disparities between protection costs and violence returns is a pure Information Age technology: encryption. TrueCrypt is free and it takes about 10 or 20 seconds to mount and close a volume which then protects your information against snoops, identity thieves or other nefarious individuals. TrueCrypt and Dropbox make a particularly potent duo. What are the costs to access the information against the will of the encryptor?

Sure, even strong encryption like 256-bit AES or Swordfish which meets Department of Defense standards and is used by TrueCrypt can be broken but it requires thousands of dollars worth of resources and lots of time. This creates an expontially expensive curve for the extortionar in terms of both time and money as you can create 100 encrypted volumes for free in less than 10 minutes for every volume that contains actionable useful information and then if someone were to try and access that information without your consent it would cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Thus, the cost benefit analysis begins to weigh heavily in favor of the individual using encryption. And the more people who use encryption to protect their information against criminals the more likely it is that criminals will look for easier targets.

One result of the high return on investment from violence in the Industrial Age was the greater use of violence. The transition from the Agricutural Age to the Industrial Age, which took about 500 years, led to the rise of tremendously large nation-states that exercised tremendous amounts of violence because it was profitable and the elites needed their capital assets protected.

An unfortunate side-effect of these economics was that during the 20th century the leading non-natural cause of death was governments; Mao, Polpot, Stalin, Lenin, Hitler, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Vietnam and etc. What do you expect when violence is so profitable?

But there is a new order of the ages that is rising like the sun and requiring the vampire squids that rely on violence to retreat into the increasingly scarce shadows. And unlike the 500 year transition into the Industrial Age we are already 15 years into a 40-50 year transition into the Information Age because of the rapid relentless advance of technology.

The things you own end up owning you.

HOW TO HARNESS THE INFORMATION AGE ECONOMICS TO DEFEAT THE CONSPIRACY

I have found that the number one comment I receive from people who unsubscribe from my email list is ‘No time’. This is probably because they have designed their lifestyle in such a way that it is far too complicated. They probably have too many committments, too many distractions and too much stuff. As Tyler Durden said in Fight Club, “The things you own end up owning you.”

First, simplifying your life is an excellent example of how to starve the vampire squid while increasing your quality of life. The social change of the 1960′s was not caused by the marches or the police dogs, the fire hoses or the riots. The social change of the 1960′s was caused by one thing: boycotts.

Every aspect of our lives have been pervaded by corporations and government. Instead of fresh, simple, wholesome and local food we eat processed, unnatural and packaged or fried food at chain restaurants. Starbucks coffee, Apple computers, Microsoft or Adobe programs, Nike shoes, Gap clothes, etc. paid with Visa or Mastercard with debt denominated in illusions. When not drooling in front of the TV being programmed by lies our time is spent at the mall, or talking on the iPhone or Crackberry while consuming news from CNN or The New York Times being connected by AT&T or Verizon.

Consider that a corporation wants to maximize shareholder value with profits and to do so it will often cut corners, endangering our health and the environment. BP, Bhopal, Valdez, Iraq, etc. It will deceive us to spend our money on its products. It will treat its employees horribly to cut costs and increase production. It will happily make us fat then employ lobbyists to pass laws forcing us to buy their healthcare all the while knowing that by selling fried food devoid of nutrition is good for profits and increased rates of heart disease, diabetes and cancer just mean higher revenues from the sickness industry.

The madness can be stopped. The corporation and government are a hungry beast that we keep feeding. The solution: walk away and let it die from hunger.

There are many advantages to voluntary austerity. By stripping out the unnecessary you are able to make more room for what gives you joy. You will have more freedom, time, room for important things, less worry, more pleasure, develop provident living principles, frugality and most important become healthier. Want to start chopping off the vampire hydra’s heads and simultaneously cauterizing the neck so it cannot grow back? Instead of buying stuff then simply buy gold, silver or platinum with any disposable income.

Second, work towards increasing your location independence. Governments derive their jurisdiction based on geography. Why do you think as the Information Age has risen that banks and their subsidiaries, governments, have attempted to make geography more important through KYC (Know Your Client) and AML (Anti-Money Laundering) regulations and laws? The PATRIOT ACT, over a third of which is devoted to financial institutions, could better be called the Cash-Flow Control Act which is primarily aimed at keeping capital in the Federal Reserve Note Dollar illusion.

But the Information Age makes geography far less important than before. To achieve location independence you simply arrange your affairs so that your geography is irrelevant to your ability to enjoy life and conduct business. In desperation as governments become increasingly desperate for revenue they will continue raising income and sales taxes, registration requirements and fees, etc.

So it will become increasingly important to consider the last of four criteria in Meredith Whitney’s 600 page report about municipal versus state debt. As Bloomberg reported, “Whitney’s report rates the states on four criteria: the economy, fiscal health, housing and the flexibility to raise taxes.” For those serious about increasing their ‘tax flexibility’ which results in decreasing the ability to have their taxes raised then I highly recommend getting our new report State Income Tax Optimization because you can keep a lot more of your money through proper planning and be better prepared for the future.

Third, begin to use alternative and substitute currencies. Legal tender laws are undergirded by the ability to require someone to use a medium of exchange against their will. GATA has done tremendous work in exposing the central bank gold price suppression scheme, besides the de facto manipulation that results from legal tender laws, which is resulting in the recent CFTC denouncement of the silver price manipulation. There are approximately 100-140 ounces of paper gold or silver for every one physical ounce.

So if you begin acquiring physical bullion you can exercise principles of reverse leverage with the potential for huge profits. If your bullion is unencumbered then you can remain solvent longer than the market can remain irrational.

As you develop a location independent lifestyle you will need the ability to transmit value around the world. So begin using a substitute currency in the ordinary daily transactions that you can. I find GoldMoney a perfect solution to (1) acquire gold, silver and platinum that is held in (2) 100% reserves and (3) can be used in ordinary daily transactions like more expensive alternatives such as Paypal or wire transfers to buy assets, pay contractors, receive payment for services or goods, etc. Even billionaires like Eric Sprott, who was recently interviewed by Eric King, endorse this practice.

I don’t know the exact number but I would bet my number is way beyond 50% in precious metals and I sleep very well at night. I would not be sleeping that well if I were owning government bonds or a mortgage on a building somewhere. It is the one asset that no-one has a claim on so I heartily endorse everyone moving all of their currencies [into gold and silver]. … There are lots of ways to do it to. I think of GoldMoney and I happen to have a small interest GoldMoney that James Turk runs. And I have some of my money there and that is perfect. I get to put my money in the bank and it is gold at the same time. How cool is that?

Fourth, as the economics of violence have changed and because those economics undergird the largest and most powerful institutions the Information Age inspired massive sea-change for society, business and government in favor of peaceful and cooperative behavior will continue to intensify.

Like a hapless idiot that falls into the piranha infested Amazon river or like an iron beam submerged in nitric acid; the current Establishment is being corroded on all sides all at once by this ginormous change in the economics of violence. As a result The Great Credit Contraction has started and cannot be stopped which has resulted and will continue to result in both real and fictitious capital burrowing down the liquidity pyramid searching for safety and liquidity.

The choice you have is to go with the new mega-trend or try or resist it. The economics of the age were not kind to carriage makers, telegraph operators or blacksmiths. Change is not mandatory; you can go extinct. This change in economics coupled with the Internet makes other epics of human history and advances in technology look miniscule.

You can continue getting milked or turned into hamburger by corporations and governments or you can take matters into your own hands and implement simplicity in your life, increase your location independence and use alternative currencies in order to starve the beast to death.

That is where things are going anyway so why give them any extra fruits from your labor? Remember the golden rule: He who has the gold makes the rules. Will you be among those who make the rules in the Information Age?

CONCLUSION

For hundreds of years the fiat legal tender currency and fractional reserve banking conspiracy has been tyrannically oppressing mankind. In the Information Age the economics of violence are radically different so as the world transitions into a new order of the ages there will be significant turmoil and likely greater degrees of violence from desperation. But when the dust settles there will be a much more free, prosperous and peaceful world. The trick will be to avoid becoming collateral damage.

Now we can see the mutually exclusive conclusion Dr. Edwin Vieira asserts: “Thus, the fight over gold and silver as media of exchange is about more than mere money, let alone making money. For it is a fight with only two possible outcomes: either control of their own lives by the people themselves, or control of the people and their lives by political and economic elitists.”

Please tell us what you think!

DISCLOSURES: Long physical gold, silver and platinum and short governments.

Economic Events on November 4, 2010

The monthly Chain Store Sales report will be released today.  This report on sales in chain stores gives a look at the health of stores that make up about 10% of all retail sales.

The Monster Employment Index for October was released today, and the index moved down 2 points to a value of 136.

At 8:30 AM EDT, the U.S. government will release its weekly Jobless Claims report.  The consensus is that there were 443,000 new jobless claims last week, which would would be 9,000 more than the number released last week, which was unexpectedly low.

Also at 8:30 AM EDT, the Productivity and Costs report for the third quarter of 2010 will be released.  The consensus is that non-farm productivity increased by 1.7% in the last quarter and labor unit costs increased 0.2%.

At 10:30 AM EDT, the weekly Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Report will be released, giving an update on natural gas inventories in the United States.

At 4:30 PM EDT, the Federal Reserve will release its Money Supply report, showing the amount of liquidity available in the U.S. economy.

Also at 4:30 PM EDT, the Federal Reserve will release its Balance Sheet report, showing the amount of liquidity the Fed has injected into the economy by adding or removing reserves.

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How Much Does Overwork Effect Happiness?

The results of a survey conducted recently by the Australia Institute apparently shows that half of Australians (61 per cent of those working overtime) were prevented from spending enough time with family in the preceding week as a result of over-work. According to the press release (which is the most detailed description of the study I could find) a lot of people don’t have time to exercise, eat healthy meals or go to the doctor when they should.

If we take the results of this survey at face value it would appear that over-work is a huge problem in Australia. I suspect, however, that the problem or over-work is not as widespread as the Australia Institute suggests. I also suspect that over-work has a much smaller adverse impact on happiness than does under-work.

Cartoon by Nicholson from “The Australian” newspaper: www.nicholsoncartoons.com.au

The results of a study by Bruce Headey, Ruud Muffels and Gert Wagner, based on a long-running German panel survey, shows working hours to be one of the factors that has a long-term impact on life satisfaction. One of the things I like about the study is that the variable used is a measure of the extent to which respondents achieve their preferred tradeoff between work and leisure, rather than divergence of working hours from some arbitrary standard chosen by researchers. The relevant variable was the gap between the number of hours a week respondents said they would prefer to work and the number of hours per week they actually work. Those who worked over 3 hours per week more than they preferred were treated as overworked and those who worked over 3 hours per week less than they preferred were treated as underworked (‘Long running German panel survey shows that personal and economic choices, not just genes matter for happiness’ PNAS, 2010).

The results indicate that the negative impact of under-work on life satisfaction was about four times greater than the negative impact of over-work. The authors suggest that this ‘is presumably because lost consumption rankles worse than lost leisure’. (It would seem that the regression analysis does not control for income levels.) The study suggests that the negative effect of unemployment is much worse than that of either over-work or under-work (about four times greater than for underwork).

Some of the other results of the study might help further to put these findings into perspective. The study shows that social participation – a measure of frequency of meetings with and helping out friends, relatives and neighbours – has a substantial positive effect on life satisfaction of around the same magnitude as the negative effect of under-work. The positive effect on life satisfaction of frequent exercise is of about the same magnitude as the negative effect of over-work. The adverse effect of having a neurotic personality is about ten times greater than that of being overworked, but having a neurotic partner has only about half the adverse effect of being overworked.

What should we make of these findings? One obvious qualification is that it isn’t clear to what extent they might apply outside Germany. Leaving that aside, it seems to me that the most important implication is the importance to individual happiness of having the opportunity to work as many hours as individuals the individuals concerned want to work. Under-work is not as bad as unemployment, but it is likely to be a much worse problem for the individuals concerned than is over-work.

It is hard to see how anyone could argue that overwork could be a huge problem when people are free to choose among jobs on the basis of hours of work along with other employment conditions. Some individuals may make bad choices, allowing themselves too little time for social participation and exercise, but that is not a systemic problem.

David Rand: Social Science experiments with Mechanical Turk

Berkman fellow Dave Rand conducts social science experiments online, using labor markets like Mechanical Turk. His lunch presentation, titled “The Online Laboratory: Taking Experimental Social Science onto the Internet” largely reports on results from a paper he recently published with John Horton and Richard Zeckhauser. The paper makes the argument that some experiments can be conducted in an online environment as well as in offline environments, and with great savings in time and cost.

To explain why social science experiments are important, Rand invokes cartoonist Randall Munroe. It’s pretty easy to show correlation in the social sciences, but much harder to determine causation. Well-structured experiments allow us to test causation by manipulating a single variable in the environment and seeing what changes. These experiments can be expensive and time consuming to set up – you need to recruit participants and give them incentives. And you need to consider design carefully, to ensure that the subjects of the experiment take the process sufficiently seriously to give valid results. In social psychology, experiment design often tricks people into giving valid results, suggesting one variable is being studied and actually studying something else. Experimental economics tries to ensure compliance through differential incentives – do well on the task and you get more money. Field studies take natural phenomena in the world, then manipulate a variable – as a result, the subjects don’t know they’re in an experiment.

The internet changes the landscape for these sorts of experiments. It’s much easier to recruit and to find many subjects with little effort. Online studies aren’t new to psychologists, Rand tells us, but are relatively new to economists, because earlier experiments had no fiscal incentives. Online labor markets fix this problem – they allow differential rewards without sacrificing cheap and easy recruitment.

Rand’s platform of choice is Mechanical Turk, an online labor marketplace run by Amazon. The name comes from a chess playing automaton popular at the turn of the 19th century. The Turk showed incredible skills at playing chess, and appeared to be the most sophisticated machine intelligence of the time. In truth, there was a small man hiding in the cabinet, manipulating levers and making the decisions to win the chess game. The point: sometimes a person is the right way to solve a problem.

As an experimenter, Mechanical Turk can feel a lot like sending your experimental questions to a robot and receiving the results. Behind the scenes, you’ve got to follow a pretty well established sequence:
- Put money in an account
- Create a HIT (“Human Intelligence Task”) description
- Redirect to your favorite survey site
- Come back to Turk with a confirmation code
- Match the turk file with survey file and calculate bonus
- Upload CSV with approve/reject and bonus info and let Amazon

While Mechanical Turk is usually used for tasks like image labeling, text and audio transcriptions and collecting information on websites, it works extremely well for many social science experiments, including surveys. Rand makes it clear that he’s not affiliated with Amazon (though he notes he wouldn’t mind an affiliation…) but that he’s simply a huge enthusiast for this new method. The low cost, Amazon’s modest cut (10%) and some careful system set ups (ensuring tasks can be completed only once by a given worker) make the system remarkably helpful for social science experimenters.

One remarkable aspect of Mechanical Turk is how modest the payment is. One of Rand’s research partners has conducted experiments to calculate what Turkers will accept as pay for a given task. They calculate a “reservation wage” – the low point of acceptable pay – with a median value of $1.38 per hour. Rand suggests that the main variable associated with experimenting on MechTurk is your willingness to wait for people to undertake your task – pay more, and the results come in faster. Rand says he usually pays $0.20 to $0.40 as a baseline for a task with bonuses of up to $1 for a five minute task. At that rate, he got 1500 participants in 2.5 days. That’s a remarkable pace of collecting observations.

To answer the question, “Who are the Turkers”, Rand conducted a study and asked Turkers to self-report demographic data. The mode age is around 30, with a higher median – there are some participants over 60. Roughly 50% of his respondents were in India, 35% in the US, and 15% elsewhere. The biasing factor there is English, as the system and task both require English comprehension.

A study by Rand’s colleague John Horton asked about the motivation of workers. Money is the main motivator for most participants, and identical in weight for Indian and US workers. A modest number of Americans list “fun” as their motivator, while few Indians do, while a modest number of Indians list “learning”, while few Americans do. That money is a primary motivator is useful for economists, as they operate on the assumption that people will behave in a way that maximizes their ability to access incentives – as such, a population of people who want to get paid is better for economists than a bunch of folks who are in it for the lulz.

The graph of education levels is a bit depressing – the majority of US participants report some college or a bachelor’s degree. Outside the US, the largest plurality have bachelor’s degrees and almost 30% self-report has having graduate degrees. Income distribution also shows a significant difference between US and non-US participants – 25% of US participants reported themselves as having income under $15,000, while 55% of non-US respondents reported that income level.

Rand notes that he’s frequently asked about sampling bias – how can we draw conclusions about human behavior from the people who participate in Mechanical Turk studies. He responds by pointing out that the vast majority of social science research is conducted testing on US undergraduates, a deeply atypical population. The participants on Mechanical Turk have more variation than the average college student population are are less WEIRD (using a term suggested by Joe Henrich, who worries that much of the social science based on observations of wealthy Westerners draws inappropriate “universal” conclusions from a biased sample set) than the subjects of most social science research. For some experiments – estimating a level of human generosity, for instance – we need representative samples. If the goal is to compare changes across different treatments, a representative sample might be less critical. In both cases, Rand suggests there’s some value in using Mechanical Turk populations, and that Mechanical Turk makes cross cultural work far easier to conduct than in traditional experimental setups.

Another concern is whether the modest payments offered to participants are sufficient to influence economic decision making. In an unpublished paper, he and colleagues compare experiments with dollar stakes and no stakes via Mechanical Turk. They averaged 616 traditional (offline) studies to get a sense for behavior we’d expect to see in these experiments. In one experiment – the Dictator game – the subject is given a sum of money and can choose to give a percentage to another participant. Offline studies suggest that subjects will typically give 35% of the sum – in a Mechanical Turk setting, participants gave 33% of the dollar they would have received as a bonus. When the incentive of real money was removed, and subjects assigned “points”, receiving only a base payment, they were substantially more generous. In other words, the $1 stake was sufficient to differentiate from uncompensated behavior, and online.

Economic Events on November 3, 2010

The figures for motor vehicle sales in October will be released today.  The consensus estimate is that 8.8 million autos were sold last month, which would be an increase of 200,000 from September.

The Mortgage Bankers’ Association purchase index was released at 7:00 AM EDT, and there was a week to week increase of 1.4% in the Purchase Index and a week to week decrease of 6.4% in the Refinance Index as interest rates remain near record lows.

The Challenger Job-Cut Report was released at 7:30 AM EDT, and it showed that there were 37,986 layoffs in October, which is about 800 more than the number of layoffs that were reported in September.

At 8:15 AM EDT, the ADP Employment Report will be released.  Investors will be watching this number to get advance notice on the state of the job market in advance of the government’s report on Friday.

At 10:00 AM EDT, the ISM non-manufacturing index for October will be released.  The consensus estimate is that it increased 0.8 points last month to a value of 54.0, and will continue to signal economic growth as it remains above the mid-point of 50.

Also at 10:00 AM EDT, the Factory Orders report for September will be released.  The consensus is for an increase of 1.8% in orders.

At 10:30 AM EDT, the weekly Energy Information Administration Petroleum Status Report will be released, giving investors an update on oil inventories in the United States.

At 2:15 PM EDT, the FOMC Meeting Announcement will be made, which will provide insight into how long the Federal Reserve plans to keep rates at 0%.  It is assumed that there will be no immediate change in the Fed funds target rate, but any hint that rates could rise in the future could have an impact on the bond market and stock market.

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Big Week, Big Decisions

Well, in case you had not noticed this is a rather big week in the markets so allow me to jump the bandwagon of market participants in dire need of some action after past’s weeks calm before the tempest. I will consequently be featuring Alpha.Sources’ first insta-blogging event which will take place in this post. Of course, I am rather busy this week too so I am not sure how much live blogging I will actually do, but do stay tuned anyway … I might surprise you.

Speaking of surprises, the RBA initiated the central bank action by saying ‘f’ck off, we can take it’ to all actual and soon-to-be QE wielding central banks out there.

(quote Bloomberg)

The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly increased its benchmark interest rate on concern stronger growth will cause inflation to accelerate, driving the nation’s currency toward parity with the U.S. dollar. Governor Glenn Stevens raised the overnight cash rate target a quarter point to 4.75 percent in Sydney, saying the economy has “relatively modest amounts of spare capacity” and citing risk of “inflation rising again over the medium term.” It was the RBA’s first move in six months.

The move signals Stevens wants to avoid a repeat of 2007, when he held off raising rates for months as slowing inflation masked a buildup in price pressures. Growth in Australia, which skirted a recession during the crisis, may strengthen as energy companies such as BG Group Plc add construction jobs.

Now, on the basis of the economic dynamics in Australia I can see why this makes sense but in a global economy where the Fed, the Boj and soon, I think, the ECB are in full QE mode it takes a brave soul to go the other way and actually offer yield for all that leveraged carry that is about to flow Stevens’ way.

48 Months

With the latest unemployment stats being reported it has now been a full 4 years since the regional unemployment rate was higher than the nation’s. Though nobody mentions that trend.  Not just that factoid, but there are a few other things that pop up from the data worth noting.

As the Trib version mentions in its very last line, the data just released for September is the first time since 2007 that the year over year change in the unemployment rate has not been up.  I’ll just point out that a drop of 3/10ths of a percentage point in the unemployment rate over a single month is about as fast a drop as you can get in a stat like that.  A drop much bigger than that and something artifically lumpy must have happened, like maybe one of the larger strikes of the past coming to an end or something like that.  I count only 2 instances in the last decade where the unemployment drop over a given month was larger than that… and one of those months was earlier this year, so you are talking a pretty fast and consistent drop in the local unemployment rate through all of 2010 thus far.

G20 or not, manifestations of Pittsburgh pessimism continue to pop up.   More often than not when I point out some version of the 48 months factoid, if it someone from Pittsburgh they retort that the recession will eventually catch up to us and it will be even worse here.  It is a belief that reflects another one of those myths that we always lag into recessions, but then peak higher and then lag getting out.  It just is something that has not been true for decades and did not manifest itself in the most recent recessions before this one.  If the current trend continues we are leading out of the recession pretty fast.  If the national unemployment rate dropped by as much as it has in Pittsburgh in the last 7 months (from 8.8% in February to 7.9% in the latest data) then I bet more than a few things would be different in both the national economy, but also the politics of the election today.

Speaking of the nexus of politics and the economy… in light of these stats this is pretty interesting:  Economic Cycle Could Boost Winners.