Divergence

I am a great believer in divergence when it comes to the talking about the economy and her markets because it allows you to take a slightly more nuanced perspective than the risk off/risk on debate that has dominated the discourse for the past two years now.

The Global Economy

Still, there . . . → Read More: Divergence

Degrees of Distrust

My last blog was ultimately about trust and that maybe the basis is telling us that there is still trust in the system. After writing it I remembered the presentation I made to the 2009 Gold Standard Institute seminar in Canberra. Below is the conclusion from that presentation, where I proposed four phases, or . . . → Read More: Degrees of Distrust

Economic Events on July 30, 2010

At 8:30 AM EDT, the Employment Cost Index for the second quarter of 2010 will be announced.  The consensus is an increase of 0.4%, which would be a decline of 0.2% compared to the first quarter of 2010.

Also at 8:30 AM EDT, the advance GDP report for the second quarter of 2010 will . . . → Read More: Economic Events on July 30, 2010

The Basis Does Not Lie!

My answers to FOFOA’s response.

I think an accurate definition of “paper” and “physical” is important to the accuracy of your statement: “I am reasonably confident that paper and physical are bound together.”

“Physical” to me means real physical gold that has been delivered in settlement. Anything else I deem “paper”. Note that my . . . → Read More: The Basis Does Not Lie!

Follow up to FOFOA

FOFOA has hit me with a lot of questions in this comment. It is 11pm in Perth, so this will be brief, but they are interesting questions and I will cover off on them over the next few days. When it comes to COMEX FOFOA, I also am a “conceptual thinker and a fundamental . . . → Read More: Follow up to FOFOA

Economic Events on July 29, 2010

At 8:30 AM EDT, the U.S. government will release its weekly Jobless Claims report.  The consensus is that there were 460,000 new jobless claims last week, which would would be an slight decrease in claims from last week’s number.

At 10:30 AM EDT, the weekly Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Report will be released, . . . → Read More: Economic Events on July 29, 2010

When does Backwardation Matter?

FOFOA started a little excitement with his post on backwardation. Professor Fekete responded and Zero Hedge weighed in as well.

I would not be surprised that for many this backwardation thing makes their head hurt and perceive it as all very theoretical and of no practical use. But this is not true and backwardation . . . → Read More: When does Backwardation Matter?

Flu down; Profit Up at Aetna

On Tuesday Aetna Inc. lifted its 2010 earnings forecast a second time after the firm reported milder-than-expected flu season. The good news about flu this year tacked one more positive in an earnings season that has been dominated by profit results and increasingly positive projections.

The firm now projects that their operating earnings may . . . → Read More: Flu down; Profit Up at Aetna

Economic Events on July 28, 2010

The Mortgage Bankers’ purchase index was released at 7:00 AM EDT, and there was a week to week increase of 2.0% in the Purchase Index and a week to week decrease of 5.9% in the Refinance Index as the housing market showed a slight improvement for the second week in a row from the . . . → Read More: Economic Events on July 28, 2010

200 Day Moving Average – The Pull Of Gravity

When allocating capital a successful method for increasing wealth is to buy cheap valuable assets and if you ever sell them then do so when the assets are expensive or very expensive. But how can one accurately perform mental calculations of value? I recommend using gold as the numeraire. This allows one to get . . . → Read More: 200 Day Moving Average – The Pull Of Gravity