Despite Distractions, US Economic Recovery Gains Momentum

Recent distractions with economic uncertainty in Europe have turned many heads, but the strong U.S. economic recovery rolls on. Just about all new U.S. economic reports are now posting positive results. This past week was no exception.

A very strong month-to-month surge in new manufacturing orders and additional employment boosts highlighted another robust ISM manufacturing report. New orders have been rolling in steadily now for well over a quarter and employment is now accelerating a level not seen for almost 6 years. Other ISM readings included strength for production, backlogs, and export orders. Additionally all the activity in production is drawing-down inventories – a sign that points to additional necessity for inventory restocking and even further production and employment.

The recent surge in home sales has also carried over to unexpected strength in construction activity. Construction outlays in April have jumped 2.7%, following a 0.4% rebound in March. Even though economists knew about expiring tax credits for home buyers, the consensus had expected no change for the April reading. The recent jump in home sales has now cut home inventories enough to give contractors renewed confidence to pick up their pace of additional construction.

Car and truck sales are also proving very solid. In the latest report, sales are now ramping to an annualized adjusted rate of 11.6 million — surpassing April’s 11.2 million. The best news for the auto sector is that even now that those government incentives have been curtailed, sales continue to ramp steadily.

The Challenger’s job-cut report held its count at a pre-recessionary 38,810 in May. The level is little changed month to month, but compared to last year’s 111,182 in May the rate is now at “normal” levels. The report supports continued expectations for sizable payroll gains and lowering unemployment rates in the months to come.

The ISM’s non-manufacturing composite also continues to report solid gains. Its readings continue to indicate steady month-to-month acceleration in activity. The employment component of the report now shows a net gain in hiring with rising backlogs pointing to accelerated hiring ahead.

So while short term market fluctuations many times have folks asking if the recovery is over, the reality is all indications are that this recovery cycle (even though it is now about a year old) is likely just getting started. Fundamentally, most indicators now point to steady economic growth and an increase in hiring for the foreseeable future.

Economic Events on June 8, 2010

At 7:45 AM EDT, the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales report will be released, giving an update on the health of the consumer through this analysis of retail sales.

At 8:55 AM EDT, the weekly Redbook report will be released, giving us more information about consumer spending.

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Slow Growth and Public Debt in Europe

Gary Becker (link) and Richard Posner (link) have initiated an interesting debate on low economic growth as the main macroeconomic concern of European economies in overcoming the increasing burden of public debt.

The BP Mess Is A Natural Punishment

The entire system around which daily life is organized in the United States, undergirded by the Federal Reserve Note dollar, is crumbling. Both long-term trends and externalities, like the BP mess, are natural and predictable consequences. Inertia is such a strong force that the avoidable often becomes, in the macro, unavoidable. But individually you can starve the vampire squid institutions and organizations and in doing so likely increase your health, wealth and happiness.

bp oil spill

PUNISHMENT FOR NATIONAL SINS

In the grand picture this BP mess in the Gulf of Mexico is a tiny and immaterial result from using a fiat currency and fractional reserve banking system.

The Founding Fathers were a particularly contentious lot during the Constitutional Convention. A major point of disagreement was slavery and the slave-trade compromise hinged on a clause found in the United States Constitution Article I Section 9 Clause 1 which contained an interesting word: dollar. Obviously, if the term dollar did not have a commonly accepted definition then this slave-trade compromise would not have been agreed to in the convention. But now the question What Is A Dollar? has no intelligible answer under federal law.

George Mason, a slaveowner, famous American Revolutionary Statesman, Delegate from Virginia to the Constitutional Convention and the “Father of the Bill of Rights” said,

Every master of slaves is born a petty tyrant. They bring the judgement of heaven upon a country. As nations cannot be rewarded or punished in the next world, they must be in this. By an inevitable chain of causes and effects, Providence punishes national sins, by national calamities.

The slavery issue, which could have been addressed and settled at the Founding, was instead, because of inertia, postponed until it erupted in a bloody crisis led by America’s greatest despot. The monetary issue, in contrast, was settled at the Founding and has been steadily eroded since until the United States and the world now finds itself in a very difficult and dangerous predicament.

Individuals, cities, counties and States are using Federal Reserve Note Dollars as legal tender and this is unconstitutional. Of course, the United States Supreme Court has not and most likely will never address the issue and so it is left to fester and boil until an avoidable crisis becomes unavoidable. Dr. Edwin Vieira in Pieces of Eight foresaw, chronicled and forewarned about all of this. It seems Seth Lipsky of the Wall Street Journal, like most in the Establishment, is a little late, ignorantly or deliberately? Inertia.

GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIZED OIL

Since Henry Ford refined the assembly line into an efficient factory the United States has been favoring oil through tax policy which has artificially stimulated demand. Now the entire American infrastructure has been built around this premise and as Dick Cheney says, “The American way of life is not negotiable.” Just ask Saddam, Obama or Ron Paul.

Of course, a couple natural byproducts of this favorable tax policy for both supply and demand of oil, ranging from highway funding or the public school transportation system to the primary residence interest tax deduction or municipal bond tax exemption, is lower cost resulting in increased demand and the rise of special interest groups such as Big Oil. Then supply which would most likely not ordinarily be produced is sought for production instead of substitute or alternative goods which often encounter legislative barriers to entry. Special legislation is enacted to protect suppliers against externalities so that the commodity can be provided at a lower cost which further feeds demand. The governmental intervention changes the economics; the economics guide the culture and ultimately impacts behavior.

Then, BAM! An externality black swan lands like the Exxon Valdez mess or BP’s massive pollution of the Gulf of Mexico. Sure, Exxon probably does not intend to wreck the oil tanker but if they can privatize the gains and socialize the losses then it would create shareholder value.

While Exxon polluted Valdez on 24 March 1989 the case was finally heard on appeal to the United States Supreme Court on 27 February 2008, about 19 years later and the decision merely remanded the case back down to the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals and limited the punitive damages to the compensatory damages of $507.5M even though Exxon’s behavior was ‘worse than negligent but less than malicious’. In the meantime, after the first verdict JP Morgan Chase created the first CDS for Exxon in 1994 because of the initial $5B punitive damage award and inflation has since eroded the vast majority of the value of 507.5M Federal Reserve Note Dollars. Thus began the rise of the derivative industry.

While President Obama is strutting around browbeating BP the outcome will likely be similar to Exxon’s which is still unresolved even though three United States Presidents have completed five terms. For example, Exxon posted record profits of $45.2B in 2008. This is an example of privatizing the gains and socializing the losses. Likewise BP will probably privatize the gains with their average net income for the last three years of $21.316B while socializing most of the losses resulting from this massive corporate defecation in the Gulf. Inertia at work to sustain the unsustainable system which had its genesis decades ago.

CONCLUSION

BP’s massive pollution of the Gulf of Mexico will have a tremendous negative impact on millions and millions of people. But BP, like the investment banks they are intertwined with, will likely be able to privatize the gains from oil production and socialize many of the losses. This is just a single example of ‘an inevitable chain of causes and effects’ that are driven by physical and economic law.

But if you think the pollution in the Gulf of Mexico is tremendous then I doubt you understand the scale of the damaging externalities resulting from the current worldwide monetary system. In the grand picture this BP mess in the Gulf of Mexico is a tiny and immaterial result from using a fiat currency and fractional reserve banking system. Exxon Valdez, BP Gulf of Mexico, Chernobyl, Soylent Green, Union Carbide’s Bhopal, the American military, the Health Care Bill, Monsanto’s Food Inc, and etc.

Using a sound money system as demanded by the United States Constitution while boycotting fractional reserve banking, in other words starving the vampire squid, is one way to protect and preserve both your personal health and the environment. In other words, stop paying these institutions and organizations to kill you and destroy the environment! To the extent possible, move your money, support HR 4248, alter your habits, change your buying patterns, cancel your cable, buy gold, and boycott unethical, immoral and damaging companies. You will likely be healthier, wealthier and happier if you do.

DISCLOSURE: Long physical gold, silver and platinum with no interest the XOM, BP, the problematic SLV or GLD ETFs or the platinum ETFs.

Economic Events on June 7, 2010

The only major economic data being released today is the Consumer Credit report for April, which will be released at 3:00 PM EDT.  The consensus estimate is that there will be an increase of $1 billion in the consumer credit available from March to April, after an increase of $2 billion in March.

The Eurozone as a Non-Optimum Currency Area

In the WSJ, Vaclav Klaus, the president of Czech Republic, draw important conclusions from the long-term economic sustainability of the Eurozone (link), arguing that the Eurozone is not an optimum currency area as suggested by the famous four criteria from economic theory. In a puzzling essay, Mr. Klaus demarks the Eurozone as a monetary union of particular economic viability and, based on the assessment of growth dynamics in Europe, suggests that the Eurozone will face a deepening problem in the future.

Gold Demand Up, Supply Down

Two news stories in my inbox this morning from Sharelynx:

Demand Up: Gold a ‘Good Choice’ for Boosting Global Use of Yuan

“China’s trade in yuan-denominated gold investment products moves the currency closer toward global acceptance and the country should develop more of them, a central bank official said.”

Supply Down: South African gold output falls hard

“In an all too familiar announcement in recent years, the South African Chamber of Mines reported the country’s first quarter gold production fell 15% quarter-on-quarter, extending the downward slide in output.”

Economic Events on June 4, 2010

At 8:30 AM EDT the Employment Situation report for May will be announced, and the consensus for non-farm payrolls is an increase of 540,000 jobs compared to a gain of 290,000 in April, the consensus for the unemployment rate is that it will decrease by 0.1% to 9.8%, the consensus average hourly earnings rate is an increase of 0.1%, and the consensus for the average workweek is 34.1 hours.  These figures have been improving over the last few months, along with other employment metrics.

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Leading Indicators Indicate a Lagging Economy

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the US declined 0.1% in April, which was not too bad, especially since it followed a 1.3% gain in March, which is not to mention a 0.4% rise in February.

This is, being that it is the Leading Economic Index and is supposed to forecast the future six to nine months out, not very good news, although the Coincident Index (a measure of current economic conditions) was up a paltry 0.3% in April, following a negligible 0.1 percent increase in March, and a 0.1% increase in February, which kind of zero each other out.

The Conference Board’s Lagging Index is the one that keeps me interested, as this is where inflations and burdens lurk, and which increased 0.1% in April, following a 0.1% increase in March, and a 0.2% rise in February, which is in a kind of continual upward pattern, as far as I can tell just by looking at three numbers and doing no more work than that.

Bill Bonner here at The Daily Reckoning is apparently unimpressed with my lazy, lackadaisical ways of looking at data, and asks, “Has the bear market/Great Correction resumed – as we said it would? Or is this just more ‘noise’ – with no particular meaning?”

Of course, always trying to impress Mr. Bonner, I jump up and say, “Yes! You are exactly right, Mr. Bonner, sir, no matter which way the market goes! If it goes down, inflation makes the losses worse, and if the market goes up, then inflation and taxes will negate any illusory nominal gains! It’s all a part of what I have said all this time, you see, about how the Federal Reserve is creating too, too much money, for too, too long, so that the federal government can deficit-spend the too, too much money, basically borrowing and spending us into bankruptcy and a future full of angry, angry people, one of them being me, not only about this pure monetary insanity of the Federal Reserve, but about how some of that money goes to government goons spying on me and shooting strange energy beams into my head with some kind of ray gun so that I will, I assume, be silenced, censored from informing people of the inherent insanity of the Federal Reserve in conducting monetary policy as opposed to adhering to the Constitution and requiring that only gold shall be money! They’re coming to get me, and they’re coming to get you, too, Mr. Bonner!”

I looked at him. He looked at me. The silence was, as they say, deafening, although way off in the distance I thought I heard wolves howling and banshees wailing, just as you would expect from the collapse of the dollar and the reordering of the world’s economic system.

So I said, “I hear banshees and wolves, probably werewolves! Listen!”

It was all perfectly clear to me that the government is evil and insane, which explains why they let the Federal Reserve create more and more fiat money, inflating the money supply which will make inflation in prices go up, which is The Thing To Be Feared (TTTBF) in economics, instead of insisting that money be only of silver and gold, as per The Constitution, and how that means that we should march on Washington DC, throw them all out of office, and install me, The Marvelous Mogambo (TMM), to rule as a living god whose every wish is a command.

Mr. Bonner is apparently not so sure, and, instead, humorously demurs, and says, “We don’t know. But we intend to be in cash and gold when we find out.”

I couldn’t, of course, argue with that, and have myself many times said, “Buy gold when your government is acting irresponsibly by allowing the satanic Federal Reserve to create So Freaking Much Money (SFMM) that ruinous inflation in consumer prices is guaranteed!”

And, as the previous paragraph so richly attests, I just did again! Whee! This investing stuff is easy!

Leading Indicators Indicate a Lagging Economy originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning.

Interesting Readings for June 3, 2010

C. Raja Mohan in The American Interest on India’s strategic directions.

A Reuters report on how Pakistanis are responding to the global backlash against Pakistan.

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Matt Ridley has some great insights into economic development.

M. K. Venu on corruption in Indian telecom.

Sanjeev Sanyal in the Business Standard on how to think about the role of the university in the city.

When Israel graduated into OECD, it got dropped from the MSCI Emerging Markets index, which helped India gain a bit of weight there.

Economic Opportunities and Gender Differences in Human Capital: Experimental Evidence for India by Robert T. Jensen finds that when the BPO industry brings economic opportunities to women in India, this positively impacts investments in girls – who are more likely to gain body mass and go to school.

The global university and the future of human capital by Andrew Kelly in The American.

Thailand’s grief: Thomas Fuller in the New York Times, a set of pictures at boston.com, and another one.

How to save the news by James Fallows in the Atlantic magazine: an important article that everyone interested in the future of newspapers should read.

5 Ways Steve Ballmer Can Save Microsoft’s Mobile Bacon by Galen Gruman: A careful and thorough guide to Microsoft about how to come back into the mobile phone game.

Robert Samuelson says the story of Greece tells us something about the sustainability of the European-style welfare state. Martin Feldstein has a suggestion for how to achieve fiscal prudence in Europe (and by analogy, in India). Also see Feldstein on the Euro crisis.

Taiwan got their corporate income tax rate down to 17%.