Niall Ferguson on Gold

Sharelynx drew my attention to this 13 May 2010 lecture by Niall Ferguson at the Peterson Institute for International Economics titled Fiscal Crises and Imperial Collapses: Historical Perspective on Current Predicaments. The following is on the last page of the transcript:

Finally, I guess one just has to ask oneself what’s going to happen in the world of dodgy paper currencies, of fiat monies, because you could quite easily get burned if ultimately we do get a crisis not just of the euro but of fiat currencies generally. And I keep thinking that maybe I should be valuing my portfolio not in terms of this or that currency but in terms of the barrel or the ounce—in terms of commodities like oil and gold.

Maybe one of the lessons of history is that periodically paper currency loses credibility so much that we have to revert to commodity standards, and I think that may well be happening. When you look at what’s happening in the gold market, it’s not so much fundamentals that are driving gold up from a $1,000 towards $2,000. It’s a fact that more and more people feel that they should hold gold as perhaps 10 percent of their portfolios. If everybody thinks that, if that becomes a standard investment strategy, then gold is going to go a lot further than its present price. So I’ve really re-thought my attitude towards gold almost on that momentum basis.

Note that this is a presentation made to the “elites”, mentioning ideas that were once considered crazy goldbug talk.