By Ajay Shah, on April 5th, 2010
Shekhar Gupta’s column in the Indian Express today is about the incipient threats faced by freedom of speech in India.
Authoritarianism vs. the Internet by Daniel Calingaert goes into the ways in which the Net increases freedom, and the way governments are fighting back. I got nervous when I read this description about some of the things that repressive regimes do:
Users are required to register with an ISP when they purchase internet access at home or at work, so that they cannot operate online anonymously. Customers at cybercafes have to present identification, and cybercafes install software to monitor and filter customers? web browsing. In Vietnam, cybercafe owners are required to keep a record for 30 days of all the websites their customers visit.
Do we do similar things in India?
The article by Calingaert led me on to this measurement of the freedom on the Internet in 15 countries by Freedom House. Their score shows:
| Rank |
Country |
Measure of repression |
| 1 |
Estonia |
10 |
| 2 |
UK |
20 |
| 3 |
South Africa |
21 |
| 4 |
Brazil |
26 |
| 5 |
Kenya |
31 |
| 6 |
India |
34 |
| 7 |
Georgia |
40 |
| 8 |
Malaysia |
40 |
| 9 |
Turkey |
40 |
| 10 |
Egypt |
45 |
| 11 |
Russia |
51 |
| 12 |
Iran |
74 |
| 13 |
China |
78 |
| 14 |
Tunisia |
78 |
| 15 |
Cuba |
90 |
I’ve seen the following pattern again and again: In measures of governance quality, India looks good when compared with China and Russia. So two of the BRIC countries really have a system of governance which is not comparable with that found in India. Far more interesting are the BSST countries — Brazil, South Africa, South Korea and Taiwan — which are democracies much like India, and have a lot of things done right in governance which India should learn from.
Finally, see Donald Morrison on the Dreyfus Affair in the Financial Times. I often wonder whether India has the depth of commitment to human rights and liberal values to be able to achieve a similar outcome. At present, I’m not convinced.

By Rok Spruk, on April 5th, 2010
From BLS (link):
“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in March, and the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Temporary help services and health care continued to add jobs over the month. Employment in federal government also rose, reflecting the hiring of temporary workers for Census 2010. Employment continued to decline in financial activities and in information. Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (10.0 percent), adult women (8.0 percent), teenagers (26.1 percent), whites (8.8 percent), blacks (16.5 percent), and Hispanics (12.6 percent) showed little or no change in March.“
By Richard Daughty, on April 5th, 2010
The fact is that Social Security is seemingly doomed, as, for the first time, this year more money will be paid out to beneficiaries than will be collected from workers.
I am trying not to laugh as I tell you this, but a lot of people are idiotically-unaware that this is a lot of bad news for many reasons, one of which being that the federal government has always spent all those excess Social Security contributions of the last half century or so, by simply taking the money and exchanging some new Treasury bonds for it! Hahahaha!
I laugh because it reminds me of when I tried that crap with my kids. I mean, how could I not? They had all this “idle” money in their piggy banks, or stashed in their “secret hiding places”, or stashed in their college funds, or jingling in their pockets, or left in their wallets and purses which were just lying around unattended.
Naturally, as they are all moronic Democrats, I thought they would appreciate my kindness in exchanging my personal IOUs for their money, under the theory that everyone could have a nicer life by my spreading their money around, and as a result, my esteem would grow, and my income would grow so that I could later redeem the IOUs, with interest, and everyone would live happily ever after.
Well, I will save you all the hysterical screaming and death threats when they discovered my scheme and they tried to force me to redeem the IOUs, which I couldn’t do because I didn’t have any money, which caused their crying and wailing to get worse, even after I patiently explained to them, so that they would understand and just shut up, “If I had any money, I would not have taken yours, you morons! You think the money to support a drinking problem and a golfing problem grows on trees or something?”
Well, the same thing is happening to Social Security, as there are now trillions and trillions of Social Security contribution dollars tied up in these bonds, some of which must now be, theoretically, sold to get the money to pay the Social Security beneficiaries, and soon the wailing and whining and finger-pointing will begin, making me live that nightmare all over again.
This at the same time that the idiotic Marxist-yahoo Obama administration is deficit-spending $1.6 trillion this year – 12% of GDP! – and almost another $9 trillion over the next 10 years! And then these trillions in ObamaCare on top of that! The utter preposterousness of it makes me laugh again! Hahahahaha!
So, at a stroke, the federal government has less money to spend and they are supposed to find buyers for bonds clogging up the Social Security system, although, of course, nothing like that will happen, as that is the magic of a fiat currency!
The government can just force the Federal Reserve to print up as much money, to buy up as many bonds, as is needed or even wanted, plus more to give itself as much money in excess of receipts as the government wants to spend, right up until the day when prices are so high because the buying power of the dollar is so low as a result of this monetary and fiscal insanity that the dollar falls to, literally, worthlessness! Hahahaha! Easy!
And don’t count on making more money to offset the higher prices that are coming as a result of all this massive expansion of the money supply by the Federal Reserve, as a new analysis by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis finds that the average per capita (every man, woman and child) personal income fell a whopping 2.6% nationally in 2009, which means that a man with a job and a woman with a job raising two kids who do not have jobs saw their income fall by 5.2%.
This is, beyond the catastrophe of a huge fall in income, but also a clear, clarion call to reexamine those pesky child-labor laws and put those kids to work!
It makes you wonder how we have done as well as we have when you read that they also found that the national average of net earnings declined 3.7% in 2009, too.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again; buy gold, silver and oil to protect yourself against terrifying, bankrupting, ruinous inflation in prices that is surely coming, or be the kind of person who stands around, terrified, bankrupted and ruined, muttering, “I should have bought gold, silver and oil, but I was too stupid to listen to that Wonderful Mogambo Fellow (WMF), or I could have looked at what happened all the other times in the last 4,500 years of history when thousands of other governments did this Same Stupid Crap (SSC)!”
If you had done either, you would know, clear as a bell, “Whee! This investing stuff is easy!”
National Income Decline: Time to Put Your Kids to Work? originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning.
By B.P.T., on April 5th, 2010
At 10:00 AM EDT,the value of the pending home sales index for February will be announced. This index fell 7.6% in January despite attempts by the federal government to prop up the housing market, and February will probably be another weak month for existing home sales because the poor weather in that month.
Also at 10:00 AM EDT, the ISM non-manufacturing index for March will be released. It rose 2.5 points in February, and the consensus estimate is that it increased 1 point last month, pointing to continued economic growth in the United States.
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By Ajay Shah, on April 2nd, 2010
The `Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education Act 2009′ (RTE Act) came into effect today, with much fanfare and an address by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. In understanding the debates about this Act, a little background knowledge is required. Hence, in this self-contained 1500-word blog post, I start with a historical narrative, outline key features of the Act, describe its serious flaws, and suggest ways to address them.
Historical narrative
After independence, Article 45 under the newly framed Constitution stated that The state shall endeavor to provide, within a period of ten years from the commencement of this Constitution, for free and compulsory education for all children until they complete the age of fourteen years.
As is evident, even after 60 years, universal elementary education remains a distant dream. Despite high enrolment rates of approximately 95% as per the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER 2009), 52.8% of children studying in 5th grade lack the reading skills expected at 2nd grade. Free and compulsory elementary education was made a fundamental right under Article 21 of the Constitution in December 2002, by the 86th Amendment. In translating this into action, the `Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education Bill’ was drafted in 2005. This was revised and became an Act in August 2009, but was not notified for roughly 7 months.
The reasons for delay in notification can be mostly attributed to unresolved financial negotiations between the National University of Education Planning and Administration, NUEPA, which has been responsible for estimating RTE funds and the Planning Commission and Ministry of Human Resource and Development (MHRD). From an estimate of an additional Rs.3.2 trillion to Rs.4.4 trillion for the implementation of RTE Draft Bill 2005 over 6 years (Central Advisory Board of Education, CABE) the figure finally set by NUEPA now stands at a much reduced Rs.1.7 trillion over the coming 5 years. For a frame of reference, Rs.1 trillion is 1.8% of one year’s GDP.
Most education experts agree that this amount will be insufficient. Since education falls under the concurrent list of the Constitution, financial negotiations were also undertaken between Central and State authorities to agree on sharing of expenses. This has been agreed at 35:65 between States and Centre, though state governments continue to argue that their share should be lower.
Overview of the Act
The RTE Act is a detailed and comprehensive piece of legislation which includes provisions related to schools, teachers, curriculum, evaluation, access and specific division of duties and responsibilities of different stakeholders. Key features of the Act include:
- Every child from 6 to 14 years of age has a right to free and compulsory education in a neighborhood school till completion of elementary education.
- Private schools must take in a quarter of their class strength from `weaker sections and disadvantaged groups’, sponsored by the government.
- All schools except private unaided schools are to be managed by School Management Committees with 75 per cent parents and guardians as members.
- All schools except government schools are required to be recognized by meeting specified norms and standards within 3 years to avoid closure.
On the basis of this Act, the government has framed subordinate legislation called model rules as guidelines to states for the implementation of the Act.
A critique
The RTE Act has been criticised by a diverse array of voices, including some of the best economists. MHRD was perhaps keen to achieve this legislation in the first 100 days of the second term of the UPA, and chose to ignore many important difficulties of the Act. The most important difficulties are:
- Inputs and Outcomes
- The Act is excessively input-focused rather than outcomes-oriented. Even though better school facilities, books, uniforms and better qualified teachers are important, their significance in the Act has been overestimated in the light of inefficient, corrupt and unaccountable institutions of education provision.
- School Recognition
- The Act unfairly penalises private unrecognised schools for their payment of market wages for teachers rather than elevated civil service wages. It also penalises private schools for lacking the infrastructural facilities defined under a Schedule under the Act. These schools, which are extremely cost efficient, operate mostly in rural areas or urban slums, and provide essential educational services to the poor. Independent studies by Geeta Kingdon, James Tooley and ASER 2009 suggest that these schools provide similar if not better teaching services when compared to government schools, while spending a much smaller amount. However, the Act requires government action to shut down these schools over the coming three years. A better alternative would have been to find mechanisms through which public resources could have been infused into these schools. The exemption from these same recognition requirements for government schools is the case of double standards — with the public sector being exempted from the same `requirements’.
- School Management Committees (SMCs)
- By the Act, SMCs are to comprise of mostly parents, and are to be responsible for planning and managing the operations of government and aided schools. SMCs will help increase the accountability of government schools, but SMCs for government schools need to be given greater powers over evaluation of teacher competencies and students learning assessment. Members of SMCs are required to volunteer their time and effort. This is an onerous burden for hte poor. Payment of some compensation to members of SMCs could help increase the time and focus upon these. Turning to private but `aided’ schools, the new role of SMCs for private `aided’ schools will lead to a breakdown of the existing management structures.
- Teachers
- Teachers are the cornerstone of good quality education and need to be paid market-driven compensation. But the government has gone too far by requiring high teacher salaries averaging close to Rs.20,000 per month. These wages are clearly out of line, when compared with the market wage of a teacher, for most schools in most locations in the country. A better mechanism would have involved schools being allowed to design their own teacher salary packages and having autonomy to manage teachers. A major problem in India is the lack of incentive faced by teachers either in terms of carrot or stick. In the RTE Act, proper disciplinary channels for teachers have not been defined. Such disciplinary action is a must given that an average of 25 percent teachers are absent from schools at any given point and almost half of those who are present are not engaged in teaching activity. School Management Committees need to be given this power to allow speedy disciplinary action at the local level. Performance based pay scales need to be considered as a way to improve teaching.
- 25% reservation in private schools
- The Act and the Rules require all private schools (whether aided or not) to reserve at least 25% of their seats for economically weaker and socially disadvantaged sections in the entry level class. These students will not pay tuition fees. Private schools will receive reimbursements from the government calculated on the basis of per-child expenditure in government schools. Greater clarity for successful implementation is needed on:
- How will `weaker and disadvantaged sections’ be defined and verified?
- How will the government select these students for entry level class?
- Would the admission lottery be conducted by neighbourhood or by entire village/town/city? How would the supply-demand gaps in each neighbourhood be addressed?
- What will be the mechanism for reimbursement to private schools?
- How will the government monitor the whole process? What type of external vigilance/social audit would be allowed/encouraged on the process?
- What would happen if some of these students need to change school in higher classes?
Moreover, the method for calculation of per-child reimbursement expenditure (which is to exclude capital cost estimates) will yield an inadequate resource flow to private schools. It will be tantamount to a tax on private schools. Private schools will endup charging more to the 75% of students – who are paying tuitions – to make space for the 25% of students they are forced to take. This will drive up tuition fees for private schools (while government schools continue to be taxpayer funded and essentially free).
Reimbursement calculations should include capital as well recurring costs incurred by the government.
By dictating the terms of payment, the government has reserved the right to fix its own price, which makes private unaided schools resent this imposition of a flat price. A graded system for reimbursement would work better, where schools are grouped — based on infrastructure, academic outcomes and other quality indicators — into different categories, which would then determine their reimbursement.
What is to be done?
The RTE Act has been passed; the Model Rules have been released; financial closure appears in hand. Does this mean the policy process is now impervious to change? Even today, much can be achieved through a sustained engagement with this problem.
- Drafting of State Rules
- Even though state rules are likely to be on the same lines as the model rules, these rules are still to be drafted by state level authorities keeping in mind contextual requirements. Advocacy on the flaws of the Central arrangements, and partnerships with state education departments, could yield improvements in atleast some States. Examples of critical changes which state governments should consider are: giving SMCs greater disciplinary power over teachers and responsibility of students’ learning assessment, greater autonomy for schools to decide teacher salaries and increased clarity in the implementation strategy for 25% reservations. If even a few States are able to break away from the flaws of the Central arrangements, this would yield demonstration effects of the benefits from better policies.
- Assisting private unrecognized schools
- Since unrecognized schools could face closure in view of prescribed recognition standards within three years, we could find ways to support such schools to improve their facilities by resource support and providing linkages with financial institutions. Moreover, by instituting proper rating mechanisms wherein schools can be rated on the basis of infrastructure, learning achievements and other quality indicators, constructive competition can ensue.
- Ensure proper implementation
- Despite the flaws in the RTE Act, it is equally important for us to simultaneously ensure its proper implementation. Besides bringing about design changes, we as responsible civil society members need to make the government accountable through social audits, filing right to information applications and demanding our children’s right to quality elementary education. Moreover, it is likely that once the Act is notified, a number of different groups affected by this Act will challenge it in court. It is, therefore, critically important for us to follow such cases and where feasible provide support which addresses their concerns without jeopardizing the implementation of the Act.
- Awareness
- Most well-meaning legislations fail to make significant changes without proper awareness and grassroot pressure. Schools need to be made aware of provisions of the 25% reservations, the role of SMCs and the requirements under the Schedule. This can be undertaken through mass awareness programs as well as ensuring proper understanding by stakeholders responsible for its implementation.
- Ecosystem creation for greater private involvement
- Finally, along with ensuring implementation of the RTE Act which stipulates focused reforms in government schools and regulation for private schools, we need to broaden our vision so as to create an ecosystem conducive to spontaneous private involvement. The current licensing and regulatory restrictions in the education sector discourage well-intentioned `edupreneurs’ from opening more schools. Starting a school in Delhi, for instance, is a mind-numbing, expensive and time-consuming task which requires clearances from four different departments totaling more than 30 licenses. The need for deregulation is obvious.
Please support our efforts towards ensuring Right to Education of Choice through some of the activities suggested above. Join our RTE Coalition.

By Eldon Mast, on April 2nd, 2010
On Thursday Ford Motor Co, said gross sales rose 43% in March. The increase — which mirrored (yet surpassed) a similar gain in February — had Ford registering the highest monthly sales increase since February 1984.
Other auto business is also up. GM reported a 43% increase. Toyota said unit sales are up 41%. And Honda reported a 22% increase.
“We saw incentives rise and prices fall at some of our competitors,” said Ken Czubay, vice president of U.S. marketing for Ford.
Ford wants to limit its incentives to models that directly compete with Toyota, such as its Fusion mid-sized car, which competes with Toyota’s Camry, and the Ford Focus, which is a rival to the Toyota Corolla.
“We are standing by our cars, and we’re grateful that our customers are standing by Toyota,” said Don Esmond, senior vice president of automotive operations for Toyota Motor Sales.
“Our March results show continued progress toward our growth plan,” said Susan Docherty, GM vice president of marketing. “By investing in our brands and remaining disciplined in our approach to the U.S. market, we posted solid results.”
And is credit flowing again at the car dealerships? A 0% financing offer by Toyota, was soon matched by all the other large manufacturers including GM, Ford, Chrysler, Hyundai, Nissan and Honda.
It appears as though auto sales growth is accelerating in Q1, just like the rest of the U.S. retail sector growth.
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By B.P.T., on April 2nd, 2010
Because of the Good Friday holiday, the only major economic event today is the release of monthly employment data by the federal government. This information will be announced at 8:30 AM EDT, and the consensus for non-farm payrolls is an increase of 200,000 jobs compared to a loss of 36,000 in February, the consensus for the unemployment rate is that it will remain at 9.7%, the consensus average hourly earnings rate is an increase of 0.2%, and the consensus for the average workweek is 33.9 hours. These figures have been improving gradually over the last few months, but short-term hiring due to the Census is expected to skew the results in the upcoming months.
By Richard Daughty, on April 1st, 2010
As much as I scream in Loud Mogambo Outrage (LMO) about the sheer amount of money that is being created that will create horrendous inflation in prices, using whatever data that I can easily get my hands on or, better yet, falling into my lap, or, as a last resort, just making up facts and figures to prove my point, I may, for once in my over-the-top, obnoxious and irritating life (“The Way Of The Mogambo (TWOTM)”), be understating the case! Understating it!
James Turk of Goldmoney.com notes, “There has been an unprecedented amount of deposit currency created by the Fed over the past two years. From December 2002 until the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the quantity of deposit currency created by the Fed averaged $11.8 billion, an amount that is relatively insignificant compared to total M1. Presently, it stands at a record high of $1,246.2 billion, which of course is highly significant.”
Well, personally, I can think of many ways that this can be “highly significant”, which I figure is already inherent in the fact that the M1 money supply figure (mostly just cash and near-cash), “stands at a record high.”
In effect, he says, “the traditional definition of M1 does not accurately capture this process when the Fed uses deposit currency to pay for its purchase”, which I am not sure I understand, as I am usually too busy with the kind of currency that kids and wives want, like the ever-popular “I need five dollars” and so I ask, “What for?” and they give me some kind of stupid reason, and I tell them, “No” and then they want to argue with me about my decision, and the argument goes back and forth between us until they are screaming, “I hate you!” and I politely ask, “And I am expected to give money to someone who hates me?” and they ask, “Is a father supposed to hate his children?” and then I am yelling, “I hate you!” and then we are both yelling, “I hate you!” until my wife comes in and tells us to shut up and for me to give the kid the damned money and stop acting like the stingy little bastard that I am.
Well, Mr. Turk is not interested in my personal troubles or how it costs me plenty, but goes on that, “The Federal Reserve reports M1 to be $1,716 billion as of February 15th. When deposit currency created by the Federal Reserve is added to the traditional definition of M1, M1 after adjustment is actually 170% higher at $2,918 billion”! 170% higher! Yow!
Ignoring my spontaneous outburst of surprise and horror, he goes on, “Its annual growth increases to 29.5%, nearly 3-times the rate reported by the Fed and, more importantly, is an annual rate of growth in the quantity of dollar currency that is approaching hyperinflationary levels.”
This talk of hyperinflation is what I am planning to blame for my taking off work early to go drinking, which worked out serendipitously because, since my head was already hanging down in a kind of alcohol-inspired stupor, I was looking at the top of the bar where I saw what I hoped was a little pool of beer and tears, mostly because it rhymed so nicely that I thought maybe I could make a hit C&W tune out of it, maybe about Charlene, she of the luscious lips, blond hair and budding breasts that made her the darling of the whole 4th grade.
I figured that the first verse could be something like “Tears and beers is all I have now, since you left me I’m dying somehow, but only in the figurative sense, unlike how the Federal Reserve is literally killing our money since, by creating so damned much of it, the idiot Congress and the moron Obama can deficit-spend us into (switching again to the figurative sense) the hell of (back to the literal) inflationary bankruptcy and ruin us completely, sort of like how your sweet, sweet love literally ruined my whole freaking life, metaphorically broke my heart and literally ruined my trust in women ever since, so that now I think females are all lying, two-timing, heart-breaking tramps like you, and all I have left is a currency that is losing its buying power, and the aforementioned tears and beers!”
I was pretty sloshed, which may explain how I immediately saw the chart-busting potential of this terrific new song of mine, and was working on the second verse (where I work in how you ought to be buying gold, silver and oil, and if you aren’t, then you are an idiot like, umm, Charlene) when I realized that perhaps I ought to do a little market research as to its popularity before I invest any more time in it.
So I turned around and said to the listless barflies around me, “Hey! Listen to this!”, and I sang them the first verse. From their reaction, I learned a lot, like about how tuneless, slurred monotones delivered in a bizarre meter are not as popular as I had hoped, but mostly in the, “I don’t get it, and it sounds stupid” genre.
So I explained, “It’s a sad story of a star-crossed love gone wrong, you morons, where a beautiful girl named Charlene breaks a good boy’s heart, and who tells him to his stricken face that she would never have agreed to let him copy her homework in the first place if she had known how creepy and weird he was, which is such a tragic blow that it is killing him inside, not unlike how the Federal Reserve is killing our money by creating so much of it that we are doomed to ruinous inflation in prices, which means your money is being killed! Can’t you see the obvious parallels, you morons?”
I saw that I was not getting through to these drunken sots, and I knew that they would be similarly unimpressed with the news that the Federal Reserve increased Total Fed Credit by a whopping $30 billion last week, and then apparently used the money to buy another $39 billion in US government securities, taking their massive, monstrous, corrupt accumulation of this crap to $2.011 trillion. I sigh.
And I am sure that they would be completely uninterested that Foreign Holdings held at the Fed increased by a big ol’ $15 billion last week, and the total of these holdings of foreigners who are, I assume, up to their necks in US dollars, is now less than a measly $4 billion away from crossing the $2 trillion mark! Wow!
Do you really, really, really need me to tell you to buy gold, silver and oil after all of that? No, I didn’t think so.
Ballad of a Heartbreaking Money Supply originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning.
By Claus Vistesen, on April 1st, 2010
It was hard not to sense that part of the IMF’s recent inquiry into Germany’s economy was also aimed at asking the country to eat a little bit of humble pie in the context of the ongoing difficulties facing the Eurozone. Consequently, Germany has been the poster child for the good pupil in class and an example to follow as the world seemed to have come to a near end in Greece, Spain and elsewhere. Today’s hint from the IMF should alert us to the fact that all is not well in the so-called engine room of Germany.
(quote Bloomberg)
The International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast for Germany after a recovery in Europe’s largest economy came to a halt, and said the government needs a “credible” plan to reduce its deficit. The IMF expects the German economy to expand 1.2 percent this year and 1.7 percent in 2011, the Washington-based lender said in a report published today. In January, the fund forecast growth of 1.5 percent in 2010 and 1.9 percent next year.
(…)
The IMF urged the German government to foster domestic consumer spending. “Strengthening domestic sources of growth will help cushion the German economy against external shocks as well as benefit the euro-area countries and the global economy by reducing trade and payments imbalances,” according to the report.
(…)
Germany mustn’t lose sight of its goal of fiscal consolidation, and policy makers must be careful as they exit from the economic support measures put in place during the global financial turbulence, the IMF said in the report.
“The authorities face the challenge of sustaining recovery while preparing to exit, as part of an international coordinated strategy, from the extraordinary measures introduced during the crisis,” it said. “Over time, fiscal policy will have to transition from support to credible consolidation.”
There are two concrete points of note above the first about how Germany should see to it that it expanded domestic demand has already gotten plenty of air time not least in the context of Merkel’s continuing nein to any suggestion that Germany should aid Southern Europe in their plight through giving a little back in terms providing demand for imports.

The problem is of course that Germany is structurally positionend to be a supplier of a excess savings to the global economy through an external surplus. And the reason, well try almost four decades worth of below replacement fertility and next to non net migration, but I guess most of you know my rant here.
More importantly, this points us to the real underlying issue in the context of a global economy. In a recent very astute comment, Martin Wolf coined the concept Chermany to signify the folly of Germany and China in believing that they can demand that hitherto prolifigate deficit nations scale down while they continue ramping up external surpluses. This simply does not add up. Wolf really manages a home run with the following observation;
Behind all this is a fundamental divide. Surplus countries insist on continuing just as before. But they refuse to accept that their reliance on export surpluses must rebound upon themselves, once their customers go broke. Indeed, that is just what is happening. Meanwhile, countries that ran huge external deficits in the past can cut the massive fiscal deficits that result from post-bubble deleveraging by their private sectors only via a big surge in their net exports. If surplus countries fail to offset that shift, through expansion in aggregate demand, the world is inevitably caught in a “beggar-my-neighbour” battle: everybody seeks desperately to foist excess supplies on to their trading partners. That was a big part of the catastrophe of the 1930s, too.
So, Germany suffers from a bit of delusion here. However, what caught my eye in particular was also the IMF’s subtle but firm indication that Germany also has to tend to its public finances and now that growth seems to be less vibrant than initially assumed, it is all the more important that Germany takes proactive action sooner rather than later. And herin lies of course the rub since Germany is only surpassed by Japan when it comes to demographic ageing and thus the future liabilities of Germany are substantial.


True; Germany is moving into this with an overall lower level of debt/gdp and if there is something the Germans take pride in, it is their ability to impose self-inflicted pain and austerity to correct and to increase competitiveness and achieve growth from external sources. Yet, this brings us right back smack into the wall here since this is exactly where we don’t want Germany to go, but exactly because of the demographic prospects, it is where Germany must go. In this way, Germany needs an external surplus for the same reason that Japan needs one; the expected return in the German economy and the underlying future government liabilities would not allow Germany to finance an external deficit at “acceptable” yields. This is curious in light of that that the yield on German bonds are used as benchmarks for the obvious reason that Germany is a net external lender, but what if this changed?
Of course, this is not only about Germany, but also about the majority of the Eurozone edifice which leaves, yet again the tricky question of just how we are to find those brave economies willing to stand on the opposite part of the scale as ageing and overleveraged economies crowd the savings surplus side.This is really the question we must answer (c.f. Wolf above) even if it is indeed tempting to rely on Germany to do the heavy lifting. So far, the signals from Germany have suggested that this won’t happen with the good will of the German government, but ultimately it won’t happen because Germany is fundamentally unable to step up to the plate and provide the capacity for the surplus of others.
One would hope that as Germany slowly wakes up to this reality and the limitations of its own economy, it will hopefully bring the country and her politicians back down to earth.
By B.P.T., on April 1st, 2010
At 8:30 AM EDT, the weekly report on initial jobless claims will be released, and the consensus is 440,000 new jobless claims, which would be a slight improvement over last week’s better than expected report, and would continue the positive trend in employment.
At 10:00 AM EDT, the Construction Spending report will be released, and the consensus is a decline of 1.1% compared to the previous month. Given that new housing starts were down sharply in February, construction spending should weaken as well.
The figures for motor vehicle sales in March will be released today. The consensus estimate is that 9 million autos were sold in March, which would be an increase of 1.4 million over February, though February sales were hurt by winter storms and Toyota’s recalls.
Also, there are a number of Treasury bond auctions today. Recent auctions have shown some weakness in the Treasury market, causing interest rates to rise, and investors will watch these auctions to see if the trend continues.
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