Inflation Meter Soars Over the Red Line

There has been a lot of discussion around here lately about inflation, mostly about who is divided up into the “We’re freaking doomed!” camp (me), and who isn’t in that camp, but instead are over in the other camp, which is, apparently, mostly everybody else, all of whom I consider to be morons who think that because the government, which has every reason to lie and whose entire history is the deplorable story of one government lie and corruption after another, says that prices are only going up 2% or 3%, which is classically horrifying, when in reality prices are inflating by even more than that!

And even if they weren’t, the Ugly Economic Fact (UEF) is that 3% inflation in prices is, judging by all the rest of economic history, the actual “dividing line” between “intolerable inflation in prices” and “we’re freaking doomed!” At least, that is the way it has almost always worked out.

That is why the Mogambo Inflation Meter (MIF) has the red-line at precisely 3% inflation in prices, which is a terrifying inflation rate that, despite its qualities of terror, is but a dim memory now, as the reality is that the indicator needle is quivering at about 7%, and inching almost-imperceptibly higher.

If you have any idea of the horror of 7% inflation in prices over the course of a few years, or if you comprehend the idea of things getting evermore expensive (which they will because the Federal Reserve is creating the money necessary) at the rate that prices actually double in a short 10 years, and then to know that it will get worse and worse should send you screaming, screaming, screaming, frantically loading up on gold, silver and oil and constructing some kind of bunker in the back yard where you can lay down an unrestricted hail of raw firepower, but you first have to fight, fight, fight with the Building and Zoning people at City Hall about getting the required construction permits but spending most of your time arguing, arguing, arguing about minutia, like about how “gun port” is not in the building code and blah blah blah.

I say this not because I am a paranoid, hateful little nut job, but as a guy who pays bills and who thus sees, first-hand, the way prices are rising, and as a guy who thus says that the government is lying about inflation, and not only that, but that everybody actually working in government, the schools and the media are lying about inflation, as I extrapolate from the few people I know who work in government, the schools and the media, who all deny any existence of inflation, and instead tell me that I am a loud, obnoxious idiot and that they regret the day they moved into a house that is so close to mine.

But real, in-your-face inflation is already reflected in the commodities index compiled by The Economist magazine, which is showing double-digit inflation in the dollar-prices of everything.

And then there is, if that is not enough for you, Javier Blas, in his “Short View” column in The Financial Times, who says that “the commodities market is screaming inflation” which seems about right the instant he says, “The price of crude is up 115 per cent since January 2009” and “spot iron ore prices have surged to more than $140 a tonne, up 95 per cent since January 2009.”

Then he quotes Julien Garran of UBS, who uses the Commodity Research Bureau Rind index, which tracks lesser-followed prices such as metal scrap, burlap, hides, tallow, gum rosin and wool tops, “for signs of raw materials inflation, free of the interference of speculative activity” because these commodities are not traded in the futures markets, and this index has, so he says, “risen more than 50 per cent since January 2009”.

About this time, as part of my Official Mogambo Duties (OMD) here on this planet you call Earth to improve the species by weeding out the unfit, I usually take the time to gently tell you that unless you prove your intelligence by buying gold, silver and oil to protect yourself against the massive, unstoppable, terrifying, bankrupting inflation in prices that is coming as a result of the massive, unstoppable, terrifying, bankrupting inflation in the money supply that is coming as a result of the loathsome Federal Reserve creating so much massive, unstoppable, terrifying, bankrupting money (so as to fund Obama’s massive, unstoppable, terrifying, bankrupting $1.6 trillion budget-deficit, with trillions more to come), then there is something very, very wrong with you and you should not have any children.

Inflation Meter Soars Over the Red Line originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning.

The Mysterious Mr Maguire’s Message of Metal Manipulation

“Since criminal prosecution is only a remote threat, and since the fines and damages are generally paid by the companies, not by the individuals, the question is: what’s to keep a Sumitomo from happening again, perhaps in precious metals?”Modern Market Manipulation by Mike Riess, International Precious Metals Institute 27th Annual Conference, 16 June 2003.

The recent statements by Mr Maguire may well prove Mr Riess right. It is well worth reading Mr Riess’ presentation. It is not long and neatly identifies the factors that contributed to the copper manipulation, factors that also apply to the metals markets.

For the young’uns, “a Sumitomo” refers to the case where, as the CFTC itself found: “the principal copper trader for Sumitomo engaged in a scheme, in conjunction with an entity operating in the United States, with the intent of manipulating the price of copper. In particular, during 1995 and 1996, Sumitomo, acting through its agent or agents, established and maintained large and dominating futures positions in copper metal on the London Metals Exchange (”LME”). In the fall of 1995, Sumitomo stood for delivery on a significant percentage of its maturing futures contracts. It thereby acquired a dominant and controlling cash and futures market position, which directly and predictably caused copper prices, including prices on the United States cash and futures markets, to reach artificially high levels. … Sumitomo intentionally exploited these artificially high prices in order to profit on the liquidation of its large portfolio of futures contracts and holdings of LME warrants.”

It is because of the Sumitomo case that I am not surprised by the revelations of Mr Maguire. However, the question for me is what sort of manipulation are we talking about? It is being spun as proof of GATA’s claim that the gold market is manipulated by the US Government via bullion banks in an attempt to support the dollar. While I don’t begrudge GATA some PR mileage, at this time all that Mr Maguire has is potentially another “rouge trader” case, only affecting the silver markets. He is not providing any evidence about gold market manipulations or Governmental involvement.

This may come in due time if the CFTC investigate further but that does beg the question of why rely on the Government. If they are ultimately party to the manipulation, will they not make the issue go away in a backroom deal? Alternatively, if the CFTC presses on and does find something initially in the silver markets, will it just be explained away as a rouge trader who will take the fall?

In this case it may be best to fight fire with fire. GATA would achieve more, and quicker, by doing a roadshow with Mr Maguire to hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, etc and making its case that the market has been manipulated via the surreptitious leasing and selling of central bank gold that is now all used up and hence there is a large short position that can be squeezed. The standard of proof would be much lower, just enough to convince an investor that the odds are in their favour.

Would it not be better to use brawn rather than bureaucracy? Only if you’re sure the bet your pitching won’t turn bad, because then your buddies will be blue (to put it mildly).

Economic Events on April 6, 2010

There are no major economic events today, but the weekly Redbook report on retail sales and the International Council of Shopping Centers report on comparable store sales in retail chains will be released this morning.

Also, there are a few Treasury auctions today, and with interest rates rising, demand for these notes could be lower than in past auctions.

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