Comment on Pension Pulse Blog

Pension Pulse has a post, “Pensions filling the infrastructure gap?” It does not allow comments, but here’s mine.

I was formerly a manager & analyst of public securities in emerging markets for one of the big pension funds. We had people in the PE departments working on this. My experience with single-purpose public infrastructure securities (i.e. shares in one airport, one port, one road) had disappointing performance but securities of companies that developed, operated, and invested in portfolios of these things for growth performed well. I wanted Cheung Kong Infrastructure, but not Shekou Port, for example.

Perth Mint to acquire full ownership of AGR Matthey

Last week the three partners in AGR Matthey decided to dissolve their partnership. The Perth Mint will acquire full ownership of the gold and silver refining business in Perth and Johnson Matthey will acquire full ownership of the platinum and silver brazing alloys business in Melbourne. Newmont will exit from these businesses entirely but will continue to have its Australian-mined gold refined at the Perth refinery. There are still some conditions precedent that need to be met before the deal is concluded, but the partners see no reason why these will not happen.

It is a move I am very excited about as it gives the Mint direct control over the refinery’s output, which is typically between 300 to 400 tonnes of gold a year. I’m reminded of the old adage, “He who owns the gold, makes the rules”, but of course the Mint doesn’t own the gold, its clients do.

The substantial physical inventories needed to support this throughput, and the Mint’s own stock, have been backing Depository client metal for many years. All this acquisition will do is change the refinery’s inventory from being listed as a metal receivable in the Mint’s financials to being a directly owned asset. This should increase the comfort factor for many Depository clients even though it doesn’t really change the fact that their holdings have been, and always will be, backed by physical.

I will be interested to see how the Mint’s critics and competitors try to spin this news against us. It does make it hard to argue that a business that refines 300 tonnes of gold a year “doesn’t have any gold”.

Maybe they’ll argue that we had to get the refinery to plug the imagined short position that they think we have. Apart from exposing their woeful ignorance of how our operations and a refinery’s work, the logical conclusion of such a position would be that the supposed short position is now plugged, making the Depository a totally safe facility!

For those not aware, the AGR refinery operations were originally established by the Perth Mint in 1899 when it was founded as the Perth branch of the British Royal Mint. In 1998 the refinery was combined with the refinery operations of Golden West to form the AGR Joint Venture and then subsequently merged with Johnson Matthey’s Melbourne refinery in 2002. So in a way the refinery business is just coming back to its home.

Red Hot New Orders Rate Driving Manufacturing Uptick

On Monday the Institute for Supply Management said that the U.S. factory-sector booked its best performance in more than five years in January. Hiring continued to recover and the rate of month-to-month growth was driven by a red-hot pace of new orders that is now accelerating higher each month.

The ISM report points to exceptional overall growth through the rest of the first quarter. The ISM’s manufacturing index jumped more than 3 points to 58.4 for its sixth straight indication of month-to-month growth. The reading easily beat consensus estimates and even beat the most optimistic of economists surveyed for such consensus.

In addition the report showed that new orders are now overflowing into backlogs — which jumped a sharp 6 points to 56.0. This is a first for this recovery. Now all three — overall manufacturing, as well as orders and backlog are all growing.

Norbert J. Ore, chair of the Institute stated, “the past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the PMI for January (58.4 percent) corresponds to a 5.5 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annual basis.”

We of course are happy to point out that the current chart and outlook matches surprisingly well with our post, chart, and prediction almost a year ago. (No one believed us back then.)



HR 4248 Free Competition In Currency Act Of 2009

On 9 December 2009 Representative Ron Paul introduced H.R. 4248 the Free Competition in Currency Act of 2009.  This Act has the potential to impact the investment world more than any other legislation that has been enacted for decades.  The impact on the bond market, Treasury market, stock market and general economy would be tremendous and disruptive.

The aims of the Act are fairly simple to (1) repeal federal law which currently decrees unconstitutional forms of currency legal tender, (2) prohibit federal taxes on gold, silver, platinum, palladium or rhodium bullion, (3) prohibit States from assessing tax or fees on any currency or monetary instrument used in interstate or foreign commerce that has legal tender status under the United States Constitution, (4) repeal federal criminal code pertaining to gold, silver or other metal coins and nullify any previous convictions under those codes.

Like he has often been when attempting to restore the checks and balances of the Constitution on this issue with H.R. 4248 Dr. Ron Paul is the lone voice in the wilderness and has no co-sponsors.  To my knowledge the only legislation Dr. Ron Paul has introduced that has been approved and enacted is Public Law 99-185 and Public Law 99-61 which require under 31 United States Code 5,112 that ‘the Secretary shall mint and issue, in quantities sufficient to meet public demand, coins which’ contain .999 fine silver or fine gold.  When the public wants to buy gold or silver, lawful money, there should be enough!

H.R. 1207 – FEDERAL RESERVE TRANSPARENCY ACT OF 2009

On 26 February 2009 Representative Ron Paul of Texas introduced H.R. 1207 the Federal Reserve Transparency Act of 2009.  Most in the financial establishment chuckled, politicians ignored it and the general public was clueless as to its effect.  But because of rapid education of the public and the political pain they exerted on the politicians the bill now has 317 co-sponsors.

To fully understand the impact of the H.R. 4248 legislation it is important to take a short journey through American legal history.

CONSTITUTIONAL LEGAL TENDER

Under Article 1 Section 8 Clause 5 Congress is given the power to ‘Coin Money, regulate the Value thereof’.  Notice the Constitution does not say what money is only that it is something that is coined rather than printed.  The Tenth Amendment states, “The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.”  The Constitution operates on the principle that if a power is not specifically delegated then it is prohibited.

In this case, the Federal Government is given no authority to make anything legal tender.  The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 was enacted by Congress creating the Federal Reserve and it would not be the first unconstitutional legislation.  They habitually violate their own laws.

Because Congress does not have the power to declare anything legal tender and because the Federal Reserve was created by Congress therefore it follows that the Federal Reserve cannot declare anything legal tender.  The individual States do retain the power to declare things legal tender but are restricted under Article 1 Section 10 Clause 1 from making any ‘Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts’.   The creature cannot exceed the creator.

The Founding Fathers strongly supported the hard money system.  After all, they had just fought a Revolution after living through the tyranny of King George with the Stamp Act, Writs of Assistance, destruction from the the Continental hyperinflation and implosion of the economy.

Despite the constraints of the Constitution the monetary system of the United States has been perpetually in violation.  For example, the United States Dollar or Federal Reserve Note Dollar went poof multiple times last century including on 5 April 1933 when FDR decreed gold to be a dangerous weapon of mass financial destruction, deemed it a controlled substance and threatened any United States citizen with jail time for owning it,  on 4 June, 1963 and 24 June 1968 when silver certificate redemption was completely ceased and 15 August 1971 during the Nixon shock.

WHAT IS A DOLLAR?

Dr. Edwin Vieira, J.D., is the author of the preeminent legal treatise on monetary jurisprudence in American law Pieces Of Eight, holds four degrees from Harvard and practices law before the United States Supreme Court.  I highly recommend reading Dr. Vieira’s entire essay, What Is A Dollar?, which is quoted only in small part here:

2. Do the present monetary statutes intelligibly define the “dollar’”?

Unfortunately, the present monetary statutes do not define the “dollar” in an intelligible fashion.

a. Federal Reserve Notes. Most people associate the noun “dollar” with the Federal Reserve Note (“FRN”) “dollar bill,” engraved with the portrait of President George Washington. This association is mistaken.

No statute defines – or ever has defined – the “one dollar” FRN as the ”dollar,” or even as a species of “dollar.” Moreover, the United States Code provides that FRNs “shall be redeemed in lawful money on demand at the Treasury Department of the United States * * * or at any Federal Reserve bank.”4 Thus, FRNs are not themselves “lawful money” – otherwise, they would not be “redeemable in lawful money.” And if FRNs are not even “lawful money,” it is inconceivable that they are somehow “dollars,” the very units in which all “United States money is expressed.”5

b. United States coins. The situation with coinage is more complex, but equally (if not more) confusing. The United States Code provides for three different types of coinage denominated in “dollars”: namely, base-metallic coinage, gold coinage, and silver coinage.

c. Currency of “equal purchasing power”. The UnitedStates Code provides no answer to this perplexing question. Indeed, it mandates that the question should not even be capable of being asked. For the Code commands that “the Secretary [of the Treasury] shall redeem gold certificates owned by the Federal reserve banks at times and in amounts the Secretary decides are necessary to maintain the equal purchasing power of each kind of United States currency.14

The term dollar is used in Article 1 Section 9 Clause 1 and the Seventh Amendment.  Neither the slave-trade faction nor the right to trial by jury would have accepted these provisions without a clear definition of what the dollar is.

Therefore, their support of these provisions inferentially establishes what a literal reading of them straightforwardly suggests: to wit, that the noun “dollar” refers, not to a mere name applicable to whatever Congress whimsically might decide thereafter to call a “dollar,” but instead to a particular coin so familiar in American experience as to be beyond political transmogrification. … Obviously, Jefferson’s free-market, scientific approach is a world apart from the arbitrary way in which Congress has set up the mutually incompatible and internally irrational sets of silver, gold, and base- metallic coins that exist today.

2) The Coinage Act of 1792. Little more than a year after Hamilton’s Report, Congress enacted its principles into law.

Section 9 of the Coinage Act of 1792 contained the monetary definitions for the United States monetary system and defined

DOLLARS or UNITS – each to be of the value of a Spanish milled dollar as the same is now current, and to contain three hundred and seventy one grains and four sixteenth parts of a grain of pure, or four hundred and sixteen grains of standard silver.

THE COINAGE ACT OF 1792

It is interesting to see the difference between how the Founding Fathers and the current politicians deal with those who engage in quantitative easing.  For example, on 21 November 2002 at the National Economists Club in Washington DC Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said,

A little parable may prove useful: Today an ounce of gold sells for $300, more or less. Now suppose that a modern alchemist solves his subject’s oldest problem by finding a way to produce unlimited amounts of new gold at essentially no cost. Moreover, his invention is widely publicized and scientifically verified, and he announces his intention to begin massive production of gold within days. What would happen to the price of gold? Presumably, the potentially unlimited supply of cheap gold would cause the market price of gold to plummet. Indeed, if the market for gold is to any degree efficient, the price of gold would collapse immediately after the announcement of the invention, before the alchemist had produced and marketed a single ounce of yellow metal.

What has this got to do with monetary policy? Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services.

Section 19 of the 1792 Coinage Act provided:

SEC. 19. And be it further enacted, That if any of the gold or silver coins which shall be struck or coined at the said mint shall be debased or made worse as to the proportion of fine gold or fine silver therein contained, or shall be of less weight or value than the same ought to be pursuant to the directions of this act, through the default or with the connivance of any of the officers or persons who shall be employed at the said mint, for the purpose of profit or gain, or otherwise with a fraudulent intent, and if any of the said officers or persons shall embezzle any of the metals which shall at any time be committed to their charge for the purpose of being coined, or any of the coins which shall be struck or coined at the said mint, every such officer or person who shall commit any or either of the said offences, shall be deemed guilty of felony, and shall suffer death.

As David Reilly of Bloomberg reported on 29 January 2010 in Secret Banking Cabal Emerges From AIG Shadows:

Later, when it became clear information would be disclosed, New York Fed legal group staffer James Bergin e-mailed colleagues saying: “I have to think this train is probably going to leave the station soon and we need to focus our efforts on explaining the story as best we can. There were too many people involved in the deals — too many counterparties, too many lawyers and advisors, too many people from AIG — to keep a determined Congress from the information.”

Think of the enormity of that statement. A staffer at a body with little public accountability and that exists to serve bankers is lamenting the inability to keep Congress in the dark. …

Now, I’m not saying Congress should be meddling in interest-rate decisions, or micro-managing bank regulation. Nor do I think we should all don tin-foil hats and start ranting about the Trilateral Commission.

Yet when unelected and unaccountable agencies pick banking winners while trying to end-run Congress, even as taxpayers are forced to lend, spend and guarantee about $8 trillion to prop up the financial system, our collective blood should boil.

Reuters reported on 8 December 2009 that the Chinese do not put up with this type of financial terrorism:

Yang Yanming was sentenced to death in late 2005 and took the secret of the whereabouts of 65 million yuan ($9.52 million) of the misappropriated funds to his grave, the Beijing Evening News said.

The report added that Yang was the first person working in China’s securities sector to be executed. …

Conscious that the growing gap between rich and poor could generate resentment, China is battling corruption and stock trading abuses. It has used the death penalty as a deterrent in serious cases.

It will be interesting to see if there is swing in the political attitude of the people towards the Federal Reserve engaging in quantitative easing.  As Dr. Ron Paul was the lone voice in the wilderness with calling for an audit of the Federal Reserve, is currently a lone voice about competing currencies and while he is joined by an increasingly shrill chorus condemning the bailouts he may yet become a lone voice in championing in introducing stiff legislation as a deterrent instead of rewarding the nefarious behavior with bailouts.  If legislation like the 1792 Coinage Act were to be passed then there would likely be a lot of rounding up to do.  Financial criminals, whether engaged in something large like unconstitutional legal tender or something small like a potential Monex fraud, should take heed.

CURRENCY CONTROLS

Many currency controls are in place which support the FRN$ by hindering its competitors such as gold, silver, platinum, palladium or rhodium.  H.R. 4248 intends to remove these barriers.  More may be implemented and holders of FRN$ may their usefulness and velocity frozen.

For example, there are ‘qualified intermediary’ rules the Infernal Revenue Service require foreign banks to follow even where legislation protects bank privacy.  The PATRIOT Act allows for ’sneak and peak’ warrants along with the ability to confiscate cash at will and in secret.

A particularly insidious but scarcely mentioned currency control was implemented by the United States Mint on 14 December 2006 which provided:

The United States Mint has implemented regulations to limit the exportation, melting, or treatment of one-cent (penny) and 5-cent (nickel) United States coins, to safeguard against a potential shortage of these coins in circulation. … Prevailing prices of copper, nickel and zinc have caused the production costs of pennies and nickels to significantly exceed their respective face values.

“We are taking this action because the Nation needs its coinage for commerce,” said Director Ed Moy. “We don’t want to see our pennies and nickels melted down so a few individuals can take advantage of the American taxpayer. Replacing these coins would be an enormous cost to taxpayers.”

Specifically, the new regulations prohibit, with certain exceptions, the melting or treatment of all one-cent and 5-cent coins. The regulations also prohibit the unlicensed exportation of these coins, except that travelers may take up to $5 in these coins out of the country, and individuals may ship up to $100 in these coins out of the country in any one shipment for legitimate coinage and numismatic purposes. In all essential respects, these regulations are patterned after the Department of the Treasury’s regulations prohibiting the exportation, melting, or treatment of silver coins between 1967 and 1969, and the regulations prohibiting the exportation, melting, or treatment of one-cent coins between 1974 and 1978.

The new regulations authorize a fine of not more than $10,000, or imprisonment of not more than five years, or both, against a person who knowingly violates the regulations. In addition, by law, any coins exported, melted, or treated in violation of the regulation shall be forfeited to the United States Government.

Better be careful with the amount of pocket change you take across the border into Mexico to buy gum.  You may find yourself unjustly criminally liable and headed to jail!

ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS

The Federal Reserve Note is a bill of credit, a debt instrument.  As Murray Rothbard observed on page 18 of his 1963 America’s Great Depression, “It is true that credit contraction may overcompensate, and, while contraction proceeds, it may cause interest rates to be higher than free-market levels, and investment lower than in the free market.  But since contraction causes no positive malinvestments, it will not lead to any painful period of depression and adjustment.”

Mr. Rothbard continues the observation that government policy can hobble the adjustment process by: “(1) Prevent or delay liquidation, (2) Inflate further, (3) Keep wage rates up, (4) Keep prices up, (5) Stimulate consumption and discourage saving and (6) Subsidize unemployment.”

H.R. 4248 would hasten the liquidation of the FRN$ credit instruments and hobble the government and central bank’s ability to inflate further.  Because the monetary metals are safe stores of value it would encourage savings.  The cascading effect this would have on wage rates, prices and the inability to subsidize unemployment would allow the country to recover from this greater depression much quicker.

UNAVOIDABLE COLLAPSE

The current unconstitutional monetary system will collapse.  It is not a matter of if but when.  Tremendous resources are being mashelled in an attempt to stop the collapse but it is about as effectual as a lone man putting forth his arm to stop the might Amazon from flowing or some costumed King named Cnut decreeing that the tide should not rise.  Economic law will takes it course.

As Ludwig von Mises predicted decades ago in chapter 20 of Human Action, ‘The boom can last only as long as the credit expansion progresses at an ever-accelerated pace. … But then finally the masses wake up. … A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears.

The fiat currency system with the Federal Reserve Note dollar as the world reserve currency is in the process of and will eventually completely breakdown and fail.  There is no easy solution.  The more capital is misallocated through bailouts the more painful the liquidation and correction will be.

Dr. Ron Paul’s legislative prescription to the monetary ailments is like taking a drug addict off drugs; the simplest, most ethical and most likely solution to put America back in a position to generate freedom, peace and prosperity.  To ignore H.R. 4248 and continue with the current monetary system is like giving an alcoholic a stolen bottle of whisky to cure his headache; while it may mask the pain in the short term it causes more damage, is immoral to steal the whisky and will lead to a worse headache later.

CONCLUSION

With unlimited greed, insatiable and imprudent desires in Wall Street and Washington it must be that the whole operation must combine and climax in an unsustainable debt bubble that either implodes in a depression or erupts in hyperinflation.  But in the grand design, gold and silver’s primary role are not as economic tools, insurance against depression or hyperinflation, but guarantors of liberty when actually used in ordinary daily transactions.

Gold, silver and the other precious metals protect against confiscation through inflation which is a form of taxation without representation or due process of law.  These shiny metals are not mere barbaric commodities but essential checks and balances in the American political machinery.

Thus, the fight over of competing currencies is about more than just wealth.  It is a fight with only two destinies:  freedom of choice or coercion.  To realize the first and vanish the second will not have too high a price because without it you will have paid the ultimate anyway without a return.

Dr. Ron Paul’s H.R. 4248 the Free Competition in Currency Act of 2009 would return America to a Constitutional monetary system, lay the foundation for freedom, peace and prosperity and clear up the unintelligible federal law in these regards.  For these reasons I endorse this legislation.

Disclosures: Long physical gold and silver with no interest in the problematic SLV or GLD ETFs or the platinum ETFs.

Mumbai as an International Financial Centre

Three fascinating new takes on Mumbai as an international financial centre:

A while ago, I had a blog post – http://tinyurl.com/mistry – which collected together the MIFC report and the immense outpouring of responses to it at the time.

How do I think we are faring? Pretty much as expected:

  • India has not yet moved towards a deeper rewriting of the core financial laws, and redefinition of the role and function of government agencies in finance. But there is an increasing acceptance that this task is high on the TODO list of policy-makers, after the Patil, Mistry, Rajan and Aziz reports.
  • Some incremental change has come about, such as currency futures. SEBI is making good progress on strengthening the capital markets which will be the foundation of India’s play in the world of international financial services.
  • Bombay is making a little progress (or maybe not ). See my recent blog post: Two paths to good cities.
  • Participation in IFS production through BPO is continuing to grow rapidly. There is real capability building up in the labour market.
  • India’s de facto integration into the world economy took a knock in the crisis. The gross flows in and out of the country (across capital and current accounts) achieved a peak value of $211 billion in the September 2008 quarter.
    From that peak, there was a drop to $152 billion in the March 2009 quarter – this took India back to a value similar to that seen in September 2007.
    From that bottom, growth has begun again, and in the latest data (September 2009) this number is back up to $175 billion (which is bigger than the value seen in the December 2007 quarter but not yet the March 2007 quarter).
  • In the crisis, we have better understood that small countries like Iceland find it difficult to be a big international financial centre given the lack of a commensurate fiscal backstop. This improves India’s competitive positioning when compared with Singapore, Dubai or Qatar.

Europe VS. USA

In NY Times, Paul Krugman (link) wrote about the comparison of European and U.S economic model, concluding that in the last 10 years, the European model of social democracy led to higher standard of living and, compared to U.S in output per hour and standard of living, and relative convergence of European countries relative to the U.S respectively.

The real convergence is a complex mathematical and empirical issue, so I will rather outline the key patterns of GDP per capita gap between the U.S and Europe and the economic explanation of it. I downloaded the data from the IMF and composed a graph which shows the GDP per capita (PPP-adjusted) in European countries as a percentage of the U.S GDP per capita. Switzerland is the only European country whose level of GDP per capita is more than 90 percent of the U.S level. Ireland, where the output contracted by 7.5 percent in 2009 (link), was once the poorest country in the European Union. Today, its GDP per capita reached 85 percent of the U.S level. In spite of the notorious advantages of the Nordic model, the GDP per capita level of all Nordic countries (excluding Norway), is below 80 percent of the U.S level. The UK GDP per capita is also far below the U.S level (75 percent). The levels of GDP per capita of the less developed countries in European Union (Slovenia, Greece, Portugal, Czech Republic and Slovakia) are all below 62 percent of the U.S level.

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook

The basic economic question is the length of the gap between the U.S and European countries. To answer the question, we have to set certain assumptions. So, let’s assume that the U.S output will increase by 2 percent in the long run. The economic theory would predict faster growth of less developed countries, since countries with lower levels of standard of living (GDP per capita) tend to follow-up the countries with higher GDP per capita. In economic literature, that is the so-called “catch-up effect”. So, what would happen if the UK economy increased by 3.5 percent in the long run. A quick estimate shows that the time gap between the UK and US is 19 years. So, what happens of the US economy increases by 2 percent in each of the next year while, at the same time, the UK GDP per capita is 75 percent of the U.S level? A fairly quick estimate shows that, if the UK GDP per capita will reach the U.S level in 10 years (although an unlikely scenario), the UK GDP per capita would have to increase by 4.9 percent each year to catch-up the U.S level of GDP per capita. If France’s GDP per capita reached the U.S level in 10 years (assuming 2 percent growth in U.S GDP per capita), it would have to increase the economic growth to 5.3 percent in each of the next 10 years. If the convergence objective is set at 20 years, the French economy would still have to grow at the annual rate higher than 3 percent.

The main question is why the European countries are still behind the U.S level of GDP per capita? There are, of course, many plausible explanations. As far as the GDP per capita is concerned, the difference in the level and growth of productivity is the most important figure in setting conclusions. After all, in the long run, productivity determines the standard of living across countries.

First, the European disease is mostly the result of high tax burden. High tax rates diminished the incentives to work, since each additional hour of labor reduced worker’s marginal productivity. Hence, as professor Mankiw explains, the rise of European leisure (link) is mostly the result of fewer working hours. In addition, early retirement is a common phenomena across Europe. By 2030, each worker will support one retired individual in Germany. The coming of Europe’s pension crisis (link) is a consequence of generous PAYG pension systems. Lower employment-to-population ratio led to higher tax rates to finance the financial liabilities for the retired. In addition, high government spending and periodic budget deficits discouraged productivity growth.

Second, another key to the explanation of the anemic growth rates in Europe is rigidity of the labor market. In many European countries, labor costs are very high (link). If the cost of labor market entry is high, people prefer longer studying and working in the shadow economy. The shares of shadow economy are relatively high in all European countries (link). The highest rates of shadow economy are in the following countries:

1. Slovenia 27%
2. Greece 26%
3. Italy 24%
4. Spain 21%
5. Belgium 20%
6. Germany 15%
7. France 13%

Source: ATKearney (2009), Friedrich Schneider (2005)

Third, Europe’s relative decline compared to the U.S, is not a consequence of the lack of R&D investment. High percentage of R&D investment in the GDP is not a cure for the real cause. In fact, European universities rank far below the top universities in the world. In the field of engineering and computer sciences, the first non-US university is in the 15th rank. Europe’s brain-drain is a known phenomena since many bright European minds immigrate to places such as the U.S, Canada and Australia. The outcome is deteriorating international ranking of universities and low efficiency of R&D expenditure on misguided projects such as the intention of the European Commission to build a “European MIT” (link) to boost Europe’s global technology leadership.

Without higher growth of GDP, productivity and market working hours, European countries will hardly sustain the convergence towards the U.S level of GDP per capita. To boost economic growth, bold structural reforms are required to cut the rates of shadow economy, reduce tax and social security burden, decrease government spending and deregulate the labor markets.

GDP, Manufacturing, Confidence, and Earnings — All Up

To round out the first month of 2010, reports this past week all painted positive business signs for the year to come.

As we’ve been predicting for quite some time, GDP for Q4 was anything but lackluster. The gross domestic product rose at a 5.7% annual pace, the Commerce Department reported Friday, up from a 2.2% rise in the third quarter. The growth rate was the fastest pace reported in six years.

Another regional manufacturing report out from Chicago-land showed additional expansion in January. Their index rose to a healthy 61.5% in January from 58.7% in December. Any readings above 50% indicate business expansion and it is clear now in that region that expansion continues to accelerate.

And in further good news for the retail sector, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey beat expectations moving higher to a reading of 74.4 for January. The reading is now at a two-year high and a full point and one half better than economists’ consensus expectations.

Also on Friday, President Obama proposed a $33 billion package of tax credits for small businesses as part of his plan to boost job creation.

Obama wants to give small businesses a $5,000 tax credit for each net new employee they hire this year and companies that reduce their payrolls at any point this year would not be eligible for the any of the hiring credits and or wage bonuses.

Further, earnings reports for Q4 and positive business expectations for Q1 continued to roll in this week during company earnings releases and conference calls.

On Friday, Honeywell (HON) said it earned $698 million, or 91 cents per share, beating expections by a penny per share. The firm reaffirmed a full year 2010 profit forecast of between $2.20 and $2.40 per share on revenues of $31.3 billion to $32.2 billion. Their CEO, Dave Cote said, “we are encouraged by the improving order trends and stabilization in many of our end markets.”

Microsoft also beat by a penny this week. Late Thursday, Microsoft said it earned $6.66 billion, or 74 cents per share, up from $4.17 billion, or 47 cents a share, in the same period a year earlier. Their revenues rose 14% to $19.02 billion.

But perhaps the strongest of company news came from Apple Computer (APPL) on Wednesday. The firm reported earnings that surged well past Wall Street estimates.

The iMaker said it earned $290 million, or 34 cents per share (a dime above estimates), on sales of $3.24 billion (250M above estimates) in the three months ended March 26. In the same quarter a year ago, Apple earned only $46 million, or 6 cents per share, on revenue of $1.91 billion.

As everyone now knows Apple released the iPad later in the week, but speaking specifically to earnings on Wednesday, CEO Steve Jobs noted, “Apple is firing on all cylinders.” The comments were indeed in line with our observations of PC shipments that rocketed higher in Q4.

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