Three Clear Markers: The Recession is Over

We now have three very reputable markers that signal the recession’s end.

1. According to the U.S. Weekly Leading Index published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), that index growth has steadily risen to a 36-week high.

2. You’ve seen the pointer here for several weeks now that the “lagging peak” in new claims for unemployment is shown to be quite accurate in predicting past business cycle rebounds. With current continuing claims declining again last week, it is almost certain that we’ve now seen the lagging peak of this recession.

3. The ISM Manufacturing index that we’ve been following since the beginning of Feb, shows a likely return to GDP growth. The ISM reported that index at 42.8% on Monday. You may want to go back and check our trend-line from our March 2 post remembering that according to the ISM an index reading “in excess of 41.2 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.”

It is increasingly obvious that the ‘green shoots’, have grown leaves, and no doubt will blossom this summer. Professor Hirschey got it just right.

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