I don’t count myself as a visionary, but there is a specter looming over mankind’s collective head, and I’m not sure if I can see how we can avoid it.

In my opinion, creating good artificial intelligence is just a matter of time. Already researchers have created a robot that uses a rat’s brain, and the future consists of computers that can think just as we do. The field of robotics is also growing rapidly, and powered by a human brain, we can have robots that walk, talk, and comprehensively pass the “Turing Test”.

Now I’m going to make the following assumptions:

1. A time will come when a robot’s capabilities will outstrip those of humans.
2. Robots will steadily become more and more affordable.

It’s important to understand that I’m not suggesting that robots will take over the human race. Surely we are not so stupid as to allow that possibility. We can always ensure laws like the “Three Laws of Robotics” are in place before allowing the robots any sort of autonomy. I’m still firmly insisting that the robots will not be “Conscious” and cannot have a will of their own. At least not in this article.

Image Credit: Vaguely Artistic

The first thing that will happen, given the above assumptions, is that corporations will lay off their employees and use robots instead. The forte of humans lies in their capacity for judgment. All other repetitive work can be delegated to simpler machines. But once robots can replicate that as well, the need for humans vanishes. Robots are preferable to humans because

• You do not have to pay them a salary. Only their running and repairing costs.
• I’m assuming that the knowledge of one robot can be easily transferred onto another thereby obviating the need for the lengthy training that humans need.
• Easier to manage, no ego hassles, etc.

So the first results of artificial intelligence will be massive layoffs. The corporations will do this because market forces will pressure them into doing so. However, when more and more companies lay off their workers and replace them with robots, who will have the money to buy their products or services when everyone has lost their jobs?

It’s like the Prisonner’s Dillemma. Each company will be forced to do the rational thing by hiring robots, but collectively they doom the economy to destruction. End of first stage.

Act two. As robots get cheaper and cheaper, everyone will find a way to own their personal robot. This robot will be like Jeeves on steroids. It will do all the chores, cut your hair, and mend your clothes. I’m also assuming that it will have the sum total of all human knowledge in it’s head and infinite dexterity in it’s fingers. Given this, it will probably make clothes for you, grow your food, and take care of every other small convenience that you would normally have paid for. This is very important because you must remember that no one has money or a job thanks to the logic in Act 1.

Image Credit: potarou

To complete the loop, robots will be able to power themselves by building their personal dynamo or some such device.

So the stable outcome will be:

1. Everyone will own a robot.
2. Occupations like tailors, lawyers, accountants, and even doctors will disappear.
3. People can just sit at home and let their robots take care of them.

In my opinion, certain services that robots cannot supply like amusement park rides and movies will still be provided for by corporations, but they will be free! What’s the point of charging money? They will anyway be run by robots, and what will people do with money? No need to buy anything as robots will provide everything for us.

I’m fairly sure I’m not getting the complete picture here. I get the nagging feeling that I’m missing out on some other consequence that I can’t yet put my finger on.

What do you think?

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3. What has our Economic System become?