By J.D. Seagraves, on August 11th, 2008
American politicians from all across the ideological spectrum are beginning to blame speculators for our collective woes.
John McCain and Barack Obama both blame speculators for high oil prices—never mind the fact that these traders are only reacting to the threat of U.S. aggression against Iran when they bid up the price of crude. McCain and Obama, along with virtually every other national political figure, often portray these speculators as nothing more than parasites who add nothing of value to the economy.
In fact, speculators provide a wonderful service to the world by stockpiling surpluses when prices are low and selling those surpluses when prices are high. This, on net, makes prices higher than they would otherwise be when supplies are high, but it also makes prices lower than they would otherwise be when supplies are low. In fact, if speculators did not stockpile during the good times, there might not be any of the commodity in question when bad times came around.
But do speculators get recognized for their contributions to the world? No. Instead, they’re vilified and scapegoated because people don’t understand what it is that speculators do. This is an age-old human trait known as bigotry, and it is no more acceptable when applied to speculators than it is when applied to racial or ethnic groups. The key to overcoming prejudice is understanding. So with this article, we will look at the most basic of all speculators: the options trader.
“Speculating” on Options
There are options for nearly every type of financial security: commodities, foreign currencies, market indices, etc. But the easiest way to understand options is by viewing them as applied to the financial instrument most readers are familiar with: common stocks.
A call option gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy a given stock at a given price on or before a given day. For example, AMZN 80 Oct Call gives the holder the right to buy 100 shares of Amazon stock at $80 on or before the third Friday in October. With Amazon trading at $76.95 as of August 7, how much would you be willing to pay for that right? Well, with two months and one week to go before expiration, you could have bought it for $5 per share ($500 for a contract of 100 shares).
Now if you bought this option for $500, there would obviously be no point in exercising it right away. After all, it would make no sense to buy shares for $80 (as your contract would allow you to do) when the market price of the stock was $76.95. But imagine the stock went to $90. Now you could buy shares for $80, even though the market price was $90, and turn around and sell them for the market price of $90. Or, more realistically, you could sell your options contract, which would have appreciated in value along with the stock, thus saving you from the burdensome expense of having to actually buy the shares of stock in order to make your profit.
Is Your Grandma a Speculator?
On the other side of the trade is the call writer. This person typically owns the shares on which he “writes” the call and agrees to sell them if the contract he writes is exercised. For every call buyer there is a call writer. Writing so-called covered calls (which means the writer owns the shares of the underlying stock) is a technique used by many retirees to earn income on the stocks they own.
For example, if your grandma owned 1,000 shares of Microsoft, which was trading at $27.39 as of August 7, then she could write ten covered call contracts agreeing to sell the stock for $32.50 per share any time between now and January 16, 2009, and receive a $0.53 per-share premium—$530. If Microsoft didn’t reach $32.50 in that time, the call she wrote would expire worthless, and she’d keep the $530. If Microsoft did reach or exceed $32.50 per share, she would be obligated to sell at that price, but she’d still keep the $530. It’s a win-win situation.
The speculator in these cases is the call buyer. He’s “speculating” that the stocks will go up, and rather than buying actual shares, he’s leveraging his bet by buying calls, which allow him to control many more shares for a fraction of the price. In response, conservative investors—like your grandma—are able to generate income on their portfolios.
How Speculators Make the World a Better Place
Who loses out here? No one. Who gains? Not only the speculator and your grandma but also the world as a whole. The existence of options trading makes the stock market more liquid, reduces the spread between the bid and ask prices of stocks (thus “cutting out the middle man”) and makes capital easier to raise. The entire world benefits.
Oil speculators provide a similar service. So before you castigate someone you don’t understand, make an effort to understand exactly what it is that they do. After all, you wouldn’t want to sound like a politician, would you?
For more information about the Stop Excessive Energy Speculation Act, the newest act proposed in Congress on controlling oil speculation, read G.L.C.’s post “The Government’s Latest Efforts to Rein in Oil Speculators.”
By Evelyn Black, on August 11th, 2008
According to a New York Times business editorial published on August 5th, when the Federal Reserve recently asked for comments on its proposed rules on abusive credit card practices, it received over 56,000 responses. Most of the responses were from credit card customers who were enraged over practices such as arbitrary interest rate hikes based on factors other than the customer’s payment history, moving up due dates and shortening payment periods, and all manner of exorbitant fees.
The NYT editorial urged the passage of a consumer’s rights bill sponsored by House Financial Services Committee Representative Carol Mahoney, a Democrat from New York. Her bill would prevent credit card companies from arbitrarily raising interest rates on a balance incurred under an old rate and would stop the practice of “universal default,” now common in the business, which allows credit card companies to hike rates on a card if that customer pays a completely unrelated bill to another company late.
The bill is a good start, but of course banks are fighting it ferociously, despite its fairly modest restraints. This resistance by the industry to any oversight or regulation raises the question of whether practices which used to be considered usurious or unethical have become “normal.” Has the financial services industry mainstreamed abusive lending to the point that banking has completely lost whatever moral compass it might once have possessed?
I think the answer is clearly yes. Of course it has. But there are always reasons, and some of them require systemic changes that will not be accomplished without bloodshed.
At the top of the list of factors that motivate abusive lending (besides greed, which you can really only say so much about before you’re out of things to say about it) is the trend towards larger and larger corporations and the selling of debt. In the not-so-olden days, if you wanted a credit card, you went down to your local bank or credit union, where they actually knew you, and you applied. If you had a good history with the bank and a steady job, they would issue you a card with a low limit and a decent interest rate. They’d handle the underwriting and the billing themselves. If you screwed up, you could go down there and talk to a person.
Today, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Chase issue most of the credit cards in the U.S., and they are huge. The banks that they have not yet swallowed up are not small either. Huge financial institutions can take huge credit risks and absorb the damage in the form of fees, increased interest, and the sale of bad debts. Because of this, underwriting standards have become much more lax and usurious fees and rates have developed to offset the risk.
Another factor influencing abusive lending is the outrageous salaries now payed to CEOs and the unrealistic expectations of stockholders who pay them. A CEO should answer to stockholders and customers, not just stockholders. People who buy stock have come to expect ridiculous returns on their investments, and the CEOs they employ are judged and paid according to whether or not they deliver those ridiculous returns. So long as this corporate culture prevails in the financial industry, regulations will be skirted and customers will be fleeced. The money has to come from somewhere, and it’s been trickling upward for some time now.
A third factor influencing abusive lending practices has been the government practice of encouraging spending in the absence of money. I know that sounds stupid. It is stupid. But we hear it all the time. We’re bombarded with, “Are consumers consuming? How much are consumers consuming? What if consumers stop consuming? This is a consumer economy! Consume! Buy stuff! Buy more stuff!”
Most Americans got tax rebate incentives this year in an effort to get them to buy stuff. Many people saved the money, put it in their gas tanks, or fueled up for winter heat in the dead of July, foiling the hopes of economic stimulus through conspicuous consumption.
Last but not least, lower incomes and rising costs encourage abusive lending practices. When people don’t make enough money to meet their basic needs, they will accept terrible lending terms to get by, especially if these terms are easy to get. In effect, Americans have been doing just that with credit cards for the past year, especially since the subprime mortgage crisis hit and many home equity lines dried up as a source of ready cash.
Our healthcare system has become so completely unattached to any kind of sane fee structure that people who spend a day or two in the hospital and who have health insurance can suddenly be deluged with bills from all over, leaving them thousands of dollars in debt before the problem is even successfully treated. All of these bills come with the words “Due in full on receipt.” Put them on a credit card and suddenly you can add as much as 30% interest to that debt. It doesn’t take very many emergencies to sink an ordinary family.
So credit card reform is overdue, yes it certainly is. But the larger issue is, why aren’t we focusing on the underlying problems that lead people to lean so hard on abusive unsecured lending?
If we are to have a consumer economy, it strikes me that what we need first and foremost is a pool of people who make enough money to cover their basic needs with a bit of surplus left over to spend on consumer goods. That means good jobs, a healthcare system that works for everyone with a sane billing system and fees ordinary people can afford, and lenders who take their fiduciary responsibility seriously and don’t promise outrageous returns to stockholders or run up billions with risky schemes while chasing an impossible profit expectation.
Regulation and reform can solve part of this. But without jobs, healthcare, affordable housing and food, and a market that works for everyone, not just the rich, we will just get more of the same old wolves in fluffly new clothing.
By G.L.C., on August 11th, 2008
Under the Energy Independence and Security Act passed last year, the Department of Transportation (DOT) has to raise the fuel economy standard for cars and light trucks to a fleet-wide average of 35 miles per gallon by 2020. The act also gives the DOT the authority to fix interim standards. The government’s recent proposal to increase fuel efficiency of automobiles to 31.5 miles per gallon by 2015 has drawn criticism from all quarters. Auto makers say it is too tough on them. Activists say it is not tough enough.
This recent proposal is a 25% increase from the present standards and does a great disservice to the auto industry and the American people. The auto industry is in absolute crisis scrambling to adjust to the market shift that has occurred due to rapidly rising gas prices, with consumers fleeing from large, fuel-inefficient light trucks and SUVs and buying smaller, more fuel-efficient and hybrid electric cars.
U.S. auto makers say that while the proposal is expected to save car owners more than $100 billion in fuel costs over the lifetime of the vehicle, it would cost the industry over $46 billion to implement the proposal making it the most expensive federal proposal ever. They warn that many of them would be forced to close shop or cut down on the number of workers – both of which are not good for the economy. This year is turning out to be the worst year for car sales in more than a decade. News of the troubled auto industry keeps mounting. Ford Motor Company just announced a loss of $8.7 billion for the second quarter.
U.S. automakers contend that the act puts them at a disadvantage to foreign car makers who are used to higher gasoline prices and much stricter regulations. It’s not nearly as hard for them to meet the 35 mpg average as it is for the American companies.
Activists point out that the new fuel economy standards are for all the vehicles that one manufacturer produces combined and not every vehicle has to meet them. The act assumes retail gas prices of $2.31 per gallon for model year 2015, with a high estimate of $3.19. For 2030, the assumed price is $2.51 per gallon, and the high price is $3.76. This is totally incorrect. Prices are already well over $4 a gallon.
The 35 miles per gallon target is well below what is technologically feasible. The national Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s own analysis shows that automakers could achieve a fleet-wide fuel economy standard of 37 miles per gallon by the year 2015.
The proposed fuel economy standards that are unreasonably low cover a period that is unreasonably long and are inadequately documented, meeting neither the spirit nor the intent of the Energy Independence and Security Act.
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